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USOIL: Route map 71.50-79 awaiting the FED!Observing the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), I notice an upward trend, with the price having retested the bullish trendline after breaking through the $74 level. Now, I expect a slight pullback towards $71.50 before a significant rebound towards $79 per barrel. However, from a macroeconomic perspective, I've also detected growing concerns about the stability of demand due to an increase in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories, leading to a decrease in prices. I am particularly mindful of the impact of Middle East tensions on energy markets. These conflicts directly influence logistics and shipping, so much so that I've observed companies diverting their ships from the Suez Canal route to avoid waters infested with Houthi rebels, significantly changing commercial routes between Europe and Asia. The arrival of an Iranian warship further complicates the situation. Additionally, I am monitoring the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, aware of the risk that it might involve neighboring countries. I've noticed that Iran has suspended crude shipments to China to secure higher prices. This move is particularly interesting as it follows China's advance purchase of a significant portion of its annual oil demand, enjoying a discount on imports from sanction-hit Iran. In conclusion, my personal analysis describes a complex WTI oil market influenced by a variety of geopolitical and technical factors. I am closely monitoring how Middle East tensions, Iran's strategies, and technical indicators affect the direction of WTI prices. Best regards and have a great weekend, from Nicola.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
USOIL Crude Oil WTI Price Prediction for Winter The potential for an increase in oil prices looms as supply disruptions in Libya unfold. Additionally, heightened tensions in the Middle East, fueled by another attack on a container ship in the Red Sea and explosions in Iran, contribute to the uncertainty. Shipping giants temporarily halted Red Sea shipments last month due to attacks by Houthi rebels, who were influenced by the conflict between Hamas and Israel. On a recent Wednesday, the Yemeni militant group, supported by Iran, claimed responsibility for targeting a container ship en route to Israel. Concurrently, OPEC announced its members' commitment to unity and cohesion within the organization, emphasizing their dedication to shared objectives. Adding to the complex landscape, last month saw Angola, a member of OPEC for 16 years, decide to exit the cartel due to disputes over quotas. In light of these developments, my forecast for oil prices is set at $80 by March 2024.
TVC:USOILLong
by TopgOptions
WTI → Oil prices drop as the USD recovers, OPEC cutsThe outlook has turned bearish for the WTI. This is mainly because the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reside deep in negative territory and as the price is seen below its 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). This indicates that on the shorter and broader scales, the sellers are dominating. Resistance Levels: $75.00, $76.15 (20-day SMA), $77.00 Support Levels: $72.80, $72.30, $71.00
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by tradingconmike
WTI BULLISH OUTLOOKOil prices surged during the latest OPEC+ meeting discussions, showcasing a 1.2% rise in U.S. crude futures at $78.77 per barrel and a 1.1% climb in Brent crude to $83.78 per barrel. The market buzzed with expectations of deeper output cuts, despite existing pledges from OPEC+ members to cut global oil output by about 5 million barrels per day. The delay in the meeting, prompted by African nations contesting their 2024 production targets, fueled speculations of potential additional cuts. Amidst bearish U.S. crude inventory data and concerns over China's slowing economic growth affecting oil demand, the market maintained a positive outlook. Analysts hinted at the possibility of expanded supply reductions beyond existing voluntary measures, with the potential of an added 1.0 million barrel-a-day cut to stabilize oil prices. However, caution lingered about a "buy the rumor-sell the fact" scenario, and technical indicators pointed towards a trend reversal, indicating a potential retreat to $73.91 if the current bullish trend eases. Overall, the oil market remained buoyant on prospects of increased output cuts by OPEC+ members, brushing aside bearish inventory reports and economic slowdown worries. The discussions continue to shape the market trajectory, showcasing a delicate balance between supply and demand dynamics in the energy sector. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by legacyFXofficial
Evaluating OPEC+ Compliance Levels for Cautious Oil TradingAs you are aware, the upcoming OPEC+ member countries to implement potential oil-supply cuts has sparked considerable interest and speculation within the trading community. Today, I would like to draw your attention to the importance of evaluating the compliance levels of these member countries and how it presents a potential opportunity for cautious oil trading. The proposed oil-supply cuts have been designed to stabilize oil prices amidst the ongoing global economic uncertainties. However, it is crucial to assess the actual compliance of OPEC+ member countries with these agreed-upon cuts. By doing so, we can gain valuable insights into the potential impact on global oil supply and demand dynamics. To effectively evaluate compliance levels, it is recommended to closely monitor official statements, production data, and any relevant news updates from OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Analyzing these factors will provide a clearer understanding of how closely member countries are adhering to their commitments. While evaluating compliance levels, it is important to maintain a cautious approach towards trading oil. The current market conditions are highly volatile and unpredictable, influenced by various geopolitical and economic factors. It is advisable to exercise prudence and carefully assess the potential risks associated with any trading decisions. In light of the potential opportunities arising from the evaluation of compliance levels, I encourage you to consider engaging in oil trading. However, it is crucial to approach this market with a cautious mindset, ensuring that you have a well-thought-out trading strategy in place. Diversification and risk management should be at the forefront of your decision-making process. As always, it is essential to stay informed and updated on the latest developments in the oil market. By leveraging reliable sources of information, you can make informed trading decisions and navigate the market with greater confidence. In conclusion, evaluating the compliance levels of OPEC+ member countries with the proposed oil-supply cuts presents an opportunity for cautious oil trading. However, it is imperative to remain vigilant, assess the risks involved, and develop a sound trading strategy that aligns with your risk appetite. Should you require any further information or assistance in evaluating compliance levels or refining your trading strategy, please do not hesitate to comment below. Thank you for your attention, and I wish you successful and prudent trading in these challenging times.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
GBPUSD Short Trend at 1.27 before Bailey speech!The GBP/USD pair continued to experience gains during the American session, reaching a new monthly high at 1.2715 before a modest retracement. The British Pound maintains its strength against the US Dollar, with the GBP/USD comfortably trading above the 1.2600 level after touching Monday's peak at 1.2644, the highest since last August. The Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), Andrew Bailey, stated on Monday that achieving the 2% inflation target would be a challenging task. Despite the central bank raising rates to 5.25% between 2022 and 2023, Bailey acknowledged the negative impact higher rates can have on households but added that it is still too early to consider rate cuts. Inflation in the UK, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), was 4.6% year-on-year in October, more than double the central bank's comfort level. From a data perspective, the UK's macroeconomic agenda is relatively light this week. The country released the October Retail Price Index (BRC), which showed a 4.3% year-on-year increase, an improvement from the previous month's 5.2%. From a technical standpoint, the market exhibits a strong upward trend after breaking out of the bullish channel, and personally, I anticipate a pullback towards 1.2530 before further upward movement with the goal of surpassing the supply zone at 1.2970 and subsequently retesting the upper part of the daily supply zone. Wishing everyone successful trading, greetings from Gaia.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn67331274
5
Managing Oil Risk Around OPEC MeetingsRudyard Kipling wrote in his famous poem, “If you can keep your head when others are losing theirs and blaming it on you, then you’ll be a man, my son.” Shocks from OPEC decisions can leave even the experts on the edge of their seats. Short-dated options on crude oil are tailor made to address and manage such idiosyncratic risks helping each trader become a man of his own making. OPEC’s 187th meeting will be held on 30th November. On 22nd November, OPEC announced that the meeting was going to be rescheduled from its original date of 25th November. This is not the first time that OPEC meeting is being postponed. The 23-member OPEC+ alliance has competing interests which makes agreement among members difficult at times. Like last year, this time again, OPEC is rescheduling its meeting. Such news impacts oil markets hugely. Prices tanked. Put option premiums spiked. Put volumes broke records. Implied volatilities jumped 8.5% over three days. DISAGREEMENT OVER PRODUCTION QUOTAS ARE BREWING AT OPEC Not only was this meeting postponed but it will be held online instead of in-person. This is not the first time. This also occurred a year ago. It shifted its meeting online after fixing production targets at an in-person session in Vienna previously. Rescheduling of meeting is reported to be due to disagreement over production quotas. Following this announcement, Brent crude prices tanked 5% but rebounded swiftly to trade 2.3% lower. WTI fell 2.6%. As reported by Javier Blas of Bloomberg, deferment of OPEC production meeting stems from production quota arguments. The Financial Times reported on 17th November that OPEC was considering an incremental one million barrels per day (bpd) reduction. This is in addition to previous production cut commitments from Saudi Arabia and Russia. 2024 is looking precarious for the OPEC. Feeble demand growth compounded by a backdrop of elevated supply growth. The possibility of the OPEC+ deal of production cuts imploding is small but cannot be ruled out. A failure to come to an agreement can leave the oil market with uncertainty ahead. IMPLICATIONS OF DEAR OIL Equity and bond markets globally are in a celebratory mood on cooling inflation. Any shocks to the oil market could send inflation back up again. Refined fuel inventory levels look precariously low at levels unseen since 1982. Diesel and Heating Oil Inventory Levels are precariously low (Source: Bloomberg ) Compounding low refined fuel inventory is the continued low levels of US Strategic Petroleum Reserves which are at a forty-year low. US Strategic Petroleum Reserves continue to languish at 40-year lows BEARS ARE CHARGING OIL PRICES LOWER Crude prices are down about 20% from its September peak. Solid output from the US, and feeble indicators from China have sent oil prices cooling despite elevated geopolitical threats. Since touching a high of USD 95/barrel on 28th September, prices have steadily declined with spurts of bear market rallies. US West Texas Intermediate first continuous futures contract has traded exhibiting strong mean reversion for much of this year Technicals point to near term overall weakness. Momentum indicators point to sharp sell down risks. Mean reversion indicators point to ambivalence with a neutral direction signal. US West Texas Intermediate second continuous futures contract has traded exhibiting strong mean reversion for much of this year Global oil markets are expected to move into surplus early next year, according to the International Energy Agency on slowing demand growth. OPTIONS MARKET SIGNALS NEAR TERM BEARISHNESS AND LONGER-TERM BULLISHNESS Pricing of options expressed by way of implied volatilities shows that puts have been more expensive than calls. As a result, the skews are supressed and hovering at 7-month lows. Cost of options expressed in implied volatilities have shot up for puts relative to calls pushing skews down (Source: CME CVOL ) Inline with the behaviour observed in implied volatilities, charts below summarise the change in open interest between close of markets on 23rd November and 17th November. Participants have been ramping up puts relative to calls except for options expiring on 29th November and 1st December . Notwithstanding the positioning of traders and portfolio managers on near term options, options traders have a strong bullish position in longer term (going into latter part of December and next year) with put-call ratio at 0.63 implying five calls (bullish trades) for every three puts (bearish trades). Open Interest across the forward curve shows higher number of calls relative to puts (Source: CME QuikStrike ) The brewing disagreements among OPEC members are impacting implied volatility on crude oil options. CVol index on crude oil jumped 15% over merely 3 days on the announcement of OPEC meeting postponement. Volatility has been on the rise amid the ongoing lack of co-operation within the OPEC cartel (Source: CME QuikStrike ) HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SET UP The path ahead for oil prices looks uncertain. Volatility has spiked and could rise even higher on growing disagreement among OPEC members. If OPEC members go for deeper cuts, oil prices could rally. However, if the prisoner’s dilemma prevails, where OPEC majors continue pumping even more to flood the market, prices could tank. Amid such ambivalence, CME’s short dated crude oil options are tailored to manage price risks. Benefits of these short-dated options were described in a paper previously published. This paper posits an options strategy using the weekly crude oil option. OPEC is scheduled to meet on 30th November. A hypothetical trade is illustrated below using options expiring on 1st December. A long strangle involves holding a long-call and a long-put option at different strikes but with the same expiry and underlying. Strangle on crude oil delivers gains when prices swing wildly. However, the strangle loses money if price moves remain muted. Pay-off from this hypothetical options strategy is illustrated below. The long strangle requires USD 2.88/barrel (USD 1.47/barrel for long call at 75.5 and USD 1.41/barrel for long put at 74.5). CME Options Calculator can be used to arrive at the latest premium values at the specified strikes. The overall premium for the strangle represents approximately 3.8% of current oil price at $75 (indicative) and the trade breaks even at expiry when oil is either at $71.62/barrel or $78.38/barrel. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by mintdotfinance
2
OPEC+ meeting incomingInitially postponed due to member disagreements, the OPEC+ meeting is now set for Thursday. Discussions are poised to delve into the consideration of deeper oil production cuts. Analysts foresee the potential extension or intensification of supply reductions into the coming year to stabilise oil prices, which currently hover around $80 a barrel. While the possibility of a collective reduction in output exists, specific details remain undisclosed. The delay stemmed from disagreements over output levels for African producers. However, indications suggest a closer approach to reaching a compromise. The meeting's agenda features discussions by an advisory panel followed by a session with OPEC+ ministers. Notably, members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia previously committed to significant oil output cuts. Current discussions revolve around the continuation of these reductions, including Saudi's voluntary production cut and Russia's export reduction, both set to expire by year-end. The likelihood of further oil cuts appears imminent, prompting us to refrain from offering a price prediction. However, I foresee a potential market shift—possibly a 1-2% increase if oil cuts are announced or a corresponding decrease in production sees an increase instead. My belief leans towards the former scenario. Nonetheless, any price hike might be short-lived as Saudi Arabia and Russia's production cuts are set to expire by year-end. Henceforth, it pays to pay attention to this meeting and see what the fine details are.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by BlackbearTrader
Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction Update - W/C 20 Nov 2023Last Monday we posted our weekly price prediction for Brent Crude Oil. The chart above is our analysis. You can see further analysis in our previous post. Our price prediction for last week was between $78.00 (Min) and $87.50 (Max). As you can see from the chart below our analysis proved true. The price stayed within the range. However, it followed the bearish indications more so than the bullish indications. The price hit the blue line resistance levels and proceeded to go down. Following the resistance line and finding some support in the High Volume Node from the Fixed Range Volume Profile. There are also fundamental factors at play here as well. OPEC+ delayed their meeting due on 26th November by four days due to conflicting opinions in the organisation, this is what also led to the price decline. If you had shorted the stock once it hit the blue line resistance level it would have netted you around 3.30% ROI to the current price. Not bad for a week.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by BlackbearTrader
USOIL: Bearish channel with a consolidation phase before $70!The prices of oil appear very negative as they record losses for the fourth consecutive day. Markets are selling crude oil futures contracts due to the current division within OPEC+ on how to proceed, with the prospect of a lack of severe measures to support oil prices. The postponement of the OPEC+ meeting to a virtual mode on Thursday highlights a deep division within the organization, signaling an unfavorable situation for oil prices, which require a united front to maintain current levels. In addition to Thursday's OPEC+ meeting, the COP28 meeting will begin in Dubai. Several market participants have expressed their forecasts on OPEC+'s decisions. The consensus is that even if OPEC+ extends the current production cuts, it is unlikely to lead to a strong rally. Oil prices are poised for further declines as there are no measures in place against the considered bearish factors. On a daily basis, the price has been inside a bearish channel for days and continues to descend. Currently, it is positioned between a supply and demand zone very close to each other, which could create a period of stagnation or consolidation. The sentiment remains bearish, and personally, I expect the price to head towards the $70.00 per barrel area. Greetings from Gaia, wishing everyone a good trading day.
TVC:USOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn67331274
3
Crude Oil Review and Forecast API Actual: 9.047M API Consensus: 1.467M EIA Crude Import Actual 0.259M EIA Crude Import Previous: -0.385M EIA Crude stock Actual: 8.701M EIA Crude stock consensus: 1.160M As Saudi Oil production had shrunk to nine million barrels per day in July since its last OPEC meeting with Russia to restrict supply amid signs of weakening global demand in slowing economy, Saudi, the largest oil supplier in the world had expressed its opinion on keeping the production to remain low until the end of this year. As foreseen through such decisions from the major suppliers, the most recent Crude inventory within the states has turned out to be way larger than expected. Since September of 2023, the Crude oil future TVC:USOIL plunged by $-22.35 (-23.62%) to $72.28 per barrel during the last week trading session. Slower than expected recovery in economic activities(PPI Nov 2023) adding fear of the constant weakening of the oil demand, forecasting a skeptical view towards a short term recovery of the oil demand and its price as well. The key major resistances are as follow: Top: $77.8 Mid: $75.5 Low: $72.12 The weekly upside trend is still the last hope for the Bullish traders. Once both the Four-hours and the daily candles closes below the $64-60 zone, we will then be able to finalize on such ambiguous consensus. With OPEC+ meeting pushed back to this weekends, every commodity investors focus is on the meeting report, hoping for the decision to give them the better foresight of the future of the market. The Best Futures Trading Hours in Crude: CL opens for trading on the floor, called the pit session at 9AM EST European trading closes at 11:30 AM EST The best hours for trading are the most liquid, between 9:00AM and 11:30AM Pit session closes at 2:30PM EST, when floor trading stops for the day Therefore, the best trading in the afternoon is the last hour between 1:30PM to 2:30PM EST
TVC:USOILShort
by Kim_CLSPX
WTI - BEARISH OUTLLOKOPEC, deflecting blame for the oil market crash, slightly increased its 2023 global oil demand growth forecast to 2.46 million barrels per day. The group's aggressive production cuts, aiming for $100 per barrel, face skepticism. Market bears challenge OPEC's strategy, selling consistently for three weeks. Questions persist about OPEC+ members responding with additional production cuts. Despite concerns, OPEC's report downplays worries about demand, referencing exaggerated negativity around Chinese demand. In the market, WTI rose to $78.26 per barrel, up 1.4%, but ended the previous week down 4.1%. Brent settled at $82.54, up 1.4%, with Brent concluding the last week down 3.8%. The global crude benchmark also experienced an 11% decline in October. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by legacyFXofficial
Would the Middle East Conflict Push Gold and Oil Prices Higher?NYMEX: WTI Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ), COMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) Over the weekend, military conflict in Gaza between Israel and Palestine shocked the world. I condemn violence against civilians and pray for the victims and their families. In the following paragraphs, I will discuss how the prices of strategically important commodities, namely gold and crude oil, might respond to the eruption of a global crisis. Firstly, let’s look back into the recent past for those crises arising to a global scale. In the last five years, the world has witnessed three major crises of very different natures: • US-China Trade Conflict: from January 2018 to January 2020, the world’s two largest economies imposed import duties to each other in a series of escalating actions and retaliations. A major event occurred on September 18, 2018, where President Trump added 10% tariff on nearly all Chinese-made products. The US-China trade conflict forever altered the global supply chain, with its impact being felt till today. • Covid-19, the most severe pandemic in a century, from its outbreak in January 2020 to 2021. A big event that sparked market fear occurred on February 2, 2020, where the US imposed travel restrictions on incoming air passengers. • Russia-Ukraine Conflict: the first military conflict in Europe since World War II, from February 14, 2022, till now. Secondly, let’s measure how gold and WTI crude oil responded to these crises. For my analysis, I denote the day before Event Day as T0, where we may find last market prices before the impact hit. Event Day will be T+1, and then 1-week after (T+7), 1-month after (1M), 3-month after (3M), all the way through 1-year after (1Y). Here are what I found: US-China Trade Conflict • Gold spot price (T0) = $1,201.90 per Troy Ounce • Price changes by time: -0.1% (T+1), +0.1% (T+7), +2.3% (1M), +3.3% (3M), +8.6% (6M), +11.6% (9M), +25.0% (1Y) • Comment: Trade tension between US and China could push the global economy into a recession. Gold, a safe-haven asset, saw its market value growing 25% in a year. • WTI crude oil spot price (T0) = $69.86 per barrel • Price changes by time: +1.2% (T+1), +6.3% (T+7), +4.3% (1M), -27.7% (3M), -14.2% (6M), -24.6% (9M), -8.4% (1Y) • Comment: High tariff raised the price consumers had to pay, hence reducing demand. Crude was down 28% three months after the all-in tariff was imposed. Covid Pandemic • Gold spot price (T0) = $1,574.75 per Troy Ounce • Price changes by time: -1.0% (T+1), -0.1% (T+7), +2.6% (1M), +8.5% (3M), +24.4% (6M), +21.2% (9M), +16.6% (1Y) • Comment: We saw the biggest stock market selloff in March 2020. Gold price was down initially as stock traders needed to raise money and meet margin calls. However, a flight to safety eventually took place, and gold was up 24% in six months. • WTI crude oil spot price (T0) = $53.09 per barrel • Price changes by time: -5.0% (T+1), -11.9% (T+7), -77.1% (1M), -61.4% (3M), -23.1% (6M), -31.1% (9M), +0.9% (1Y) • Comment: Rapid Covid outbreaks stroke fear. Lockdowns put global activities to a pause. The pandemic wiped out oil demand, with WTI falling 80% in a month. April 20, 2020 made history as oil price of the expiring contract went below zero. As storage cost more than selling price, traders were willing to pay others to take away the crude for free. Russia-Ukraine Conflict • Gold spot price (T0) = $1,854.60 per Troy Ounce • Price changes by time: -2.5% (T+1), -2.5% (T+7), +6.5% (1M), -1.8% (3M), -2.8% (6M), -5.0% (9M), +5.0% (1Y) • WTI crude oil spot price (T0) = $91.25 per barrel • Price changes by time: +4.7% (T+1), +5.3% (T+7), +30.7% (1M), +12.90 (3M), +1.1% (6M), +0.6% (9M), -17.2% (1Y) • Comment: A major military conflict in Europe significantly raised the global risk level. Gold, the safe-haven asset, and crude oil, an energy commodity critically important in wartime, both went up in the first month, by 6.5% and 30.7%, respectively. • However, the impact was short-lived. On March 16, 2022, the Fed begin hiking interest rates, which has become the driving force in global market. Impact from Russia-Ukraine became a secondary factor and sat in the back burner. To sum up the above examples, I observe that gold prices usually go up in the aftermath of a global crisis. Crude oil has a mixed bag of reactions. If a crisis results in economic recession and a consequential reduction in oil demand, oil prices would go down. However, in the case of a major war, oil price would go up due to its strategic importance. Review: Event-driven Strategy focusing on Global Crises In June 2022, I introduced a three-factor pricing model for commodities futures: Commodities Futures Price = Intrinsic Value + Market Sentiment + Crisis Premium Intrinsic Value is the baseline cash price of the underlying commodities, determined by available supply, demand, inventory, shipping costs, and factors affecting these variables. Market Sentiment indicates if investors are bullish or bearish. Whether speculative investors place more money on the long side or the short side affects the price of a futures contract. Market sentiment could be either positive or negative, resulting in a price premium or a discount of the intrinsic value. The new Crisis Premium factor captures “Event Shock” during a global geopolitical crisis. Previous trade example: Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 28% of global wheat export. Wheat price shot up by 75% following the start of the conflict. I designed a Long Strangle options strategy on CBOT Wheat futures, and simultaneously bought out-of-the-money (OTM) call and put options. A “risk-on” outcome could push wheat price higher, making the calls more valuable, where a “risk-off” outcome would pull wheat price back down, making the puts in-the-money (ITM). Trading Opportunities with Micro Gold Since the September FOMC meeting, gold prices suffered a 6.3% drawdown, sending the futures price from $1,969 to $1,845. Friday settlement price was nearly 9% below the yearly high. On the one hand, high-interest money market funds beat out non-interest-yielding gold investment; on the other hand, strong dollar raised the cost of gold purchase by foreign investors. As a result, gold prices have been under pressure. However, my analysis illustrates that gold prices could rise in response to geopolitical conflicts. Since its founding, Israel had five major wars with its Arab neighbors. We do not know whether this time it would be contained as a regional conflict or spark a chain reaction of a global war. By the intensity of how it started, it doesn’t seem like a short one. To express a view of rising gold prices, we could consider a long position in COMEX Micro Gold Futures ( AMEX:MGC ). The December contract (MGCZ3) was settled at $1,845. Each contract has a notional value of 10 troy ounces, or $18,450 at market price. CME Group requires an initial margin of $780 per contract. Hypothetically, if gold futures go back up to $2020, its yearly high, the $175 ($2020-$1845) price increase would translate into $1,750 for a long futures position. If gold price goes down instead, each dollar of decline would result in a loss of $10 per contract. Alternatively, we could consider the newly launched Micro Gold Options. A Long Strangle Options Strategy, where simultaneously buying OTM calls or puts, could be deployed if we expect a big move in gold price, but not certain of its direction. Trading Opportunities with WTI Crude Oil Since June, WTI crude oil first staged a nearly 40% rise, from $67 going to $93. However, it has seen a 9% drawdown since the Fed meeting on September 20th. A major military conflict in the Middle East, the world’s most important oil producing region, threatens to interrupt oil supply and push up oil price. If the conflict is escalated to involve major oil exporting nations, the situation could be dire. To express a view of rising crude price, we could consider a long position in NYMEX WTI Futures ( NYSE:CL ). The December contract (CLZ3) was settled at $83.18. Each contract has a notional value of 1,000 barrels, or $83,180 at market price. CME Group requires an initial margin of $6,186 per contract. Hypothetically, if WTI futures go up above $100, which we saw from February to July 2022 in the first months of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the $17 price increase would translate into $17,000 for a long futures position. If crude oil price goes down instead, each dollar of decline would result in a loss of $1000 per contract. Similarly, the newly launched Micro WTI Options could express a view that a big move in oil price is expected, without knowing its direction. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
35
CRUDE OIL - Entering Sideways Mode ✔️✔️Previously at FxProfessor: ✔️Perfect Long: ✔️Perfect Short: News: Oil continues to tumble after previous session's slide Here's the scoop: 📉 Prices took a tumble, with Brent crude down $1.19 to $84.62 a barrel and WTI crude dropping $1.31 to $82.91. Ouch! 📉 Yesterday, we saw a massive $5 drop, the biggest in over a year. The reason? A gloomier economic outlook and concerns about dwindling fuel demand after an OPEC+ meeting. 🛢️ OPEC+ decided to stick to its oil output policy. Saudi Arabia's holding onto a 1 million bpd cut until the end of 2023, and Russia's keeping a 300,000 bpd curb until December. No rush to boost supply, it seems. 🛢️ Russia also said, "No hurry" to lift the ban on fuel exports to tackle high local gasoline and diesel prices. 📉 National Australia Bank analysts are staying cautious, saying the market's still in deficit this quarter. Softening prices may mean OPEC won't ease supply restrictions anytime soon. 💶 On the flip side, the euro zone's facing economic challenges, with demand dropping in September due to rising borrowing costs and prices. 🇺🇸 In the U.S., gasoline demand hit a low not seen since the start of the year, coming in at 8 million bpd, according to the EIA. 📈 With all this uncertainty and weaker U.S. economic data, oil bulls might have a tough time pushing prices higher. 📊 Keep an eye on the market, and as always, trade wisely! One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
TVC:USOIL
by FX_Professor
7
US Crude Oil 4H : waiting for meeting of the members of OPECUSOIL New forecast The price perfectly fulfills my last idea and price reached to our target . On Wednesday, there is a meeting of the members of OPEC Plus, and the decision is in their hands. Increase production. We will witness a decrease in prices. Extending the reduction, we will witness an increase in prices. Additionally tomorrow we have US crude oil stocks and it will affect on the market . Technical abstract : The price of oil is trading with noticeable positivity, attacking the 88.32 level and trying to stabilize above it, which requires attention in the upcoming trading, as stability above this level will stop the bearish corrective scenario and push the price to try to restore the main upward trend again and support the price to reach 91.14 and 92.48 again . Therefore we expect the upward trend in the coming period supported by bullish channel . Taking into account breach and stabilized under 87.75 will push the price to be under sell pressure and will postponed the bullish attempts Additionally ,Today News will affect the market . I prefer don't trade in this moment until tomorrow to know what the OPEC plus will do . support line : 91.14 , 90.55 resistance line : 92.48 , 94.02 Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
TVC:USOIL
by Arazmajeed
3
Oil: Supply Cut by OPEC+, Potential Bull Run?Hi Fellow Traders, Oil prices have impulsively rebounded after reaching the EMA200 line, thus continuing their bullish trend. Concurrently, the prices have formed a falling wedge pattern, which was subsequently followed by a breakout of said pattern. Additionally, the MACD Indicator has exhibited a bullish divergence. The breakout of this pattern and the presence of a Bullish Divergence both signal the potential for an upcoming upside movement, targeting area 1. Following the attainment of target 1, we anticipate a possible pullback to the yellow zone before the continuation of its movement towards the second target. Fundamental Drivers Beyond technical factors, oil prices might sustain levels above $80, supported by diminishing oil inventories and supply reductions from the OPEC+ coalition. It is expected that Saudi Arabia will prolong a voluntary oil output reduction of 1 million barrels per day into October. It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached. Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below! Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as a recommendation to take a long or short position on TVC:USOIL ."
TVC:USOILLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
7
Heating oil and gasoline supply remain tightOil demand, driven by China is an area of strength, but a slowing Chinese economy could weaken this. However, OPEC’s resolve to keep markets tight is strong. Petroleum product markets – heating oil and gasoline – are especially tight with inventory significantly below normal and prices have hit ‘golden crosses’ : technical analyst parlance for bullish conditions. Positioning in heating oil futures is a standard deviation above 5-year average after rising by 49% last month1. A combination of rising longs and contracting shorts drove the trend amid a 17% rally in heating oil in the past month1. Heating oil inventory has fallen 15% and inventory is now than a standard deviation below 5-year average2. While not as steep as last year, the 0.8% positive roll yield on heating oil futures marks a break from the pre-2022 historic trend of contango in August3. At 8.6%, the positive front month roll yield on gasoline futures appears larger than seasonally normal (although a positive front month roll is expected at this time of the year)3. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), world oil demand is scaling record highs, boosted by strong summer air travel, increased oil use in power generation and surging Chinese petrochemical activity. Global oil demand is set to expand by 2.2 mb/d to 102.2 mb/d in 2023, with China accounting for more than 70% of growth. With the post-pandemic rebound running out of steam, and as lacklustre economic conditions, tighter efficiency standards and new electric vehicles weigh on use, growth is forecast to slow to 1 mb/d in 2024. Russian oil exports held steady at around 7.3 mb/d in July, as a 200 kb/d decline in crude oil loadings was offset by higher product flows. Crude exports to China and India eased month on month but accounted for 80% of Russian shipments. Global observed oil inventories declined by 17.3 mb in June, led by the OECD. Non-OECD stocks and oil on water were largely unchanged. OECD industry stocks fell by 14.7 mb, in line with the seasonal trend, to 2,787 mb. Industry stocks were 115.4 mb below the five-year average, with product inventories particularly tight. Preliminary data observed by the IEA suggest global inventories drew further in July and August. Refiners are struggling to keep up with demand growth, as the shift to new feedstocks, outages and high temperatures have forced many operators to run at reduced rates. Tight gasoline and diesel markets have pushed margins to six-month highs. Heating oil (Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel) prices rose 17% in the past month, reflecting this tightness. OPEC+’s aggressive cuts are continuing to tighten the oil market. Saudi Arabia’s voluntary supply cuts have helped oil curves remain in backwardation. Source: 1 Commodity Futures Trading Commission as of 15 August 2023 2 change in inventory over the past 3 months, United States Department of Agriculture as of 15 August 2023 3 Calculated as difference between front month and second month futures prices as of 15 August 2023 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
N
by aneekaguptaWTE
USDCAD LONG SETUP BEFORE FOMC + OPECOn USDCAD, we have a bullish setup with the price retracing to the 1.3226 area, touching a minor demand within the main demand zone. I have used this level as a possible entry zone with a target at 1.33. With the upcoming OPEC and FOMC events, the dollar could potentially have a bullish push this morning, considering also the DXI, which appears to have a bullish trend. It would be fantastic if you could share your opinion and give a like to support our work. Greetings and have a good day of trading from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
USDNOK Can See More Weakness As Crude Tryign To FInd A SupportCrude oil is trying to stabilize ahead of the FED today, showing some interesting intraday recovery from around $67.00 per barrel. Can be a small impulse, but I want to see a steady recovery ehre and possibly a broken resistance line to make sure that w-x-y in E of (B) is completed. Also, the global oil supply fell 660k bpd in May on OPEC+ cuts, which can help to stabilize oil price going forward. With higher crude I like NOK. Keep in mind that crude oil and USDNOK, both traded south recently, but crude trying to stabilize now. If it closes higher today, then USDNOK can see much more weakness. Current bears on USDNOK are also acting impulsively so far. GH
by ew-forecast
2