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Light Crude Oil Futures: Bulls vs. Bears – Big Moves ComingAlright, trading fam, let me set the scene. We’re sitting at $69.40 right now, and the market is coiling like a wave that’s either going to barrel or wipe out everyone trying to ride it. This is one of those setups that makes you lean in because, whichever way it goes, it’s going to be a ride. You ready? Bearish Path – Things Could Get Real Slippery If the price slips below $62.30, it could open up a steep drop to as low as $17.12. Yeah, that’s a long way down. It’s like paddling into the wrong break and realizing there’s no way out without eating sand. If the bears manage to break that key support, all bets are off. Think demand drops, rising inventories, or a stronger dollar that sends oil spiraling lower. Traders who’ve been short are already eyeing this level—if it breaks, they’ll be riding that wave all the way down. Bullish Path – Eyes on the Double Top But here’s the flip side: if the bulls show up and break through $89.10, we’re talking about a potential double top formation. And if that double top gives way? It’s all gas, no brakes, with $129.25 in sight. It’ll take some momentum to push through—maybe supply cuts or geopolitical tensions—but if the bulls catch that wave, it could be a smooth ride to higher levels. What’s the Move? Right now, it’s all about staying patient and reading the flow. If $62.30 holds, you know the bulls still have some fight in them. But if they lose that level, the bears are going to have a field day. On the other hand, if the bulls break through $89.10, it’s game on to higher highs. This is one of those trades where the chart is giving us clear levels, and now it’s just a matter of who takes the wheel. If this breakdown gave you some clarity, follow, share, and pass it along to anyone else riding these markets. Let’s keep an eye on these levels and catch the right wave when it comes. Mindbloome Trader
NYMEX:CL1!
by Mindbloome-Trading
USD/JPY Towards 160 if the Fed doesn’t cut!USD/JPY is currently trading near the 150.00 level, under pressure due to verbal intervention from Japanese authorities and a pullback in the US Dollar. The pair is navigating a cautious environment, as mild risk aversion strengthens the safe-haven Japanese Yen. However, despite this pressure, the pair maintains its broader upward trend after breaking a key resistance level. Fundamentally, USD/JPY continues to find support from strong US retail sales data and a resilient labor market, along with rising US Treasury yields. This has led investors to reduce the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the November meeting, keeping the dollar supported and the pair on a bullish trajectory.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Gold Nears $2,700 on Election UncertaintyThe price of gold continues its bullish run, nearing $2,700 per ounce due to uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections, despite the strength of the dollar and rising Treasury yields. Political uncertainty is increasing demand for the precious metal, considered a safe haven, as polls show a tight race. Additionally, the recent decision by the ECB to cut interest rates temporarily strengthened the dollar, but this has not prevented gold from maintaining its positive momentum. Better-than-expected economic data in the U.S., such as increased retail sales and the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index, also supported the dollar, but these factors were not enough to reverse gold’s trend. From a technical standpoint, moving averages, particularly the 20-day SMA around $2,649.50, continue to provide support to the bullish trend, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain far below, confirming persistent buyer interest. Technical indicators suggest further upside, though minor short-term corrections may occur, potentially offering new buying opportunities.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GBP/USD: Key Levels and Market UncertaintyThe analysis of the GBP/USD pair indicates a context of uncertainty, with the British pound (GBP) seeking support from relatively subdued demand for the US dollar (USD) but lacking clear bullish pressure. The GBP/USD pair is influenced by various macroeconomic factors, including expectations of further easing by the Bank of England (BoE) and key economic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom. Following the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September meeting, the dollar gained strength. The minutes revealed that most FOMC members supported a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut, but with caution regarding the future pace of easing, sending a more "hawkish" signal than expected and dampening the prospects for immediate further easing. The pound remains under pressure, as the market expects the BoE to continue with a more accommodative policy, which limits the potential appreciation of the GBP. However, UK economic data could provide short-term support if it surprises to the upside. From a technical perspective, GBP/USD has some key static support levels: 1.3050, 1.3000 (a psychologically important round level), and 1.2940, which could act as deeper support. On the resistance side, 1.3100 corresponds to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest uptrend and could be a barrier for bulls, with the next resistance at 1.3170, located at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, representing the next hurdle in the event of a trend reversal.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Geopolitical Concerns Support Gold PricesGold price remains resilient, with buyers showing persistence as long as the static support at $2,630 holds firm. Gold's recent struggle to capitalize on the US Dollar's pullback, following the Greenback's seven-week highs, is notable. Despite weakening US Treasury bond yields, which typically support Gold prices, other global dynamics are weighing on the precious metal. Market risk sentiment remains elevated, driven by expectations of further stimulus measures from China as markets reopened after a week-long break. This surge in risk appetite has suppressed demand for traditional safe-haven assets like Gold and US bonds. Another factor dampening Gold's outlook is the shifting sentiment regarding Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts. Following stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which reported robust job growth of 254,000 in September, expectations for a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed have almost disappeared. The probability of a 25 bps cut is now seen at 94%, leaving little room for further dovish moves. This has reduced Gold’s short-term appeal, as higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Gold. However, geopolitical concerns continue to support Gold prices. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, highlighted by Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and retaliatory rocket launches by Hezbollah into northern Israel, raises the risk of a broader regional war in the Middle East. This geopolitical uncertainty keeps safe-haven demand for Gold alive, counterbalancing the downward pressure from global risk appetite and Fed expectations.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Will geopolitical tension support oil prices? Kazakhstan planned to cut its oil output, while Russia reported lower production in Sep, restricting the supply. Meanwhile, the heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East increases concerns over oil production and transport. At the same time, market participants remain optimistic about the US economy, which could support oil demand. Today's NFP release may provide insights regarding the US job markets. USOIL has significantly recovered from its low last month. The price retested its support at 67.50 USD per barrel before closing above its psychological support at 70.00 USD per barrel. If USOIL sustains its upward momentum, the price may retest the following resistance at 75.00 USD per barrel. On the contrary, USOIL may return to 70.00 USD per barrel if the price retraces before its continuation.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by DynamicCapital-FX
Gold is ready for NFP!Gold (XAU/USD) has shown resilience, bouncing back to around $2,640 per ounce after hitting a daily low of $2,638 on Thursday. This recovery was fueled by growing concerns over a potential conflict between Israel and Iran, as well as a stronger US Dollar. On the fundamental side, gold remains influenced by expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy. Last week, the market predicted with over 60% probability a 50 basis point rate cut by November. However, stronger-than-expected US labor market data have reduced these expectations to 35%, boosting the US Dollar and applying bearish pressure on gold, which tends to lose appeal as the dollar strengthens. Technically, gold is in a phase of uncertainty. A break above $2,673, the weekly high, could signal a resumption of the uptrend, with a potential target of $2,700. Conversely, a break below $2,625 could lead to a test of support at $2,600. In the medium to long term, gold maintains a general bullish trend, supported by its traditional role as a safe-haven asset and the global low-interest rate environment.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
WTI Price Outlook: Key FactorsThe price of WTI is hovering around $69.60 per barrel, remaining at relatively low levels compared to recent peaks. However, several signals suggest a potential reversal towards an upward trajectory. The reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories, reported by the EIA, was significantly larger than expected, with a drop of 4.471 million barrels compared to the forecasted 1.2 million. This signal of shrinking supply could exert upward pressure on crude oil prices. On the other hand, the effectiveness of recent economic stimulus measures adopted by China, the world's largest oil importer, remains uncertain. If these measures fail to stimulate demand, crude prices could face downward pressure. Additionally, rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly after an Israeli airstrike that killed a Hezbollah commander, increase the risk of a potential supply disruption from the region. From a technical standpoint, WTI is currently in a consolidation phase. If prices manage to break through the key resistance level around $70-72 per barrel, a bullish breakout could occur, supported by increased trading volumes.
TVC:USOILLong
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Is Global Oil Demand the Key to Energy Market Stability?In the intricate landscape of global energy markets, the question of oil demand remains a central enigma. Driven by a confluence of geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production strategies, and economic dynamics, global oil demand is a complex tapestry that shapes the future of energy markets. Geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, have historically been a significant driver of oil price volatility. The recent escalation of tensions has once again underscored the delicate balance between geopolitical stability and global oil supply. As geopolitical risks rise, so too does the price of oil, impacting investors in oil-related securities like the United States Oil Fund (USO). However, geopolitical factors are just one piece of the puzzle. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, OPEC+, play a crucial role in regulating global oil supply. Their production decisions, often influenced by economic considerations and geopolitical pressures, can significantly impact oil prices and, consequently, global oil demand. Beyond geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ dynamics, economic factors also play a vital role in shaping global oil demand. The global economy, with its cyclical nature, influences energy consumption. During periods of economic growth, oil demand tends to increase, while economic downturns can lead to reduced consumption. The interplay between geopolitical risks, OPEC+ strategies, and economic factors creates a complex and dynamic environment for the global oil market. Understanding these intricate relationships is essential for investors seeking to navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by the oil sector.
AMEX:USOLong
by signalmastermind
GBPUSD: The bullish run continues!The analysis of GBP/USD highlights a strong upward phase, with the pair holding above 1.3300, close to its 31-month high. The pair has extended its positive trend for five consecutive sessions, driven by various technical and economic factors. The current resistance level is around 1.3350, representing the upper boundary of the ascending channel. If this level is breached, the next resistance would be around 1.3400, a significant psychological barrier. Should the pair retreat below 1.3300, it could drop toward 1.3230, the lower limit of the channel. This would signal a possible correction, likely due to overbought conditions. The Bank of England (BoE) decision to keep interest rates unchanged, with only one policymaker favoring a cut, positively surprised markets. The overall tone was seen as "hawkish," with Governor Bailey expressing optimism that rates could fall but stressing the need for more inflation data. Positive retail sales data (+1% in August vs. a forecast of +0.4%) further supported the British pound, showcasing the UK's economic resilience, a positive factor for the currency. The US dollar, on the other hand, showed signs of weakness, especially following volatility in US equity markets, which could bolster GBP/USD’s rise.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Gold's Surge on Fed Cuts and Geopolitical Tensions!Fundamental Trend and Macroeconomic Factors: Gold is continuing its bullish trend, supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Lower rates make gold, a non-yielding asset, more attractive compared to interest-bearing financial instruments. Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon are also boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold, further driving up the precious metal’s price. Technical Data and Trend Indicators: Gold has risen for the third consecutive day, with the price reaching a new record high of $2,634.74 per ounce. Daily technical indicators show signs of stabilization, although they remain in overbought territory, indicating that the bullish momentum might start to slow down. 4-Hour Chart Analysis: Technical indicators have begun to pull back from their recent highs with neutral-to-bearish slopes, signaling a potential retracement. However, gold continues to trade above rising moving averages, with dynamic support around $2,600. Future Outlook: Upcoming economic data, such as the August PCE Index, could influence the Fed’s future direction, determining whether interest rate cuts will become more aggressive. This factor will be crucial in assessing whether gold can continue its upward trajectory, bolstered by an expansive monetary policy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EURUSD Analysis after the FED, BOE and BOJ!The analysis of EUR/USD suggests a relatively strong position for the pair, currently stable around 1.1160, with a bullish outlook supported by both technical and fundamental factors. Technical Factors: Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI indicator on the 4-hour chart is near 70, indicating the pair is in overbought territory, suggesting that a technical pullback or correction could be imminent in the short term. However, the overall bullish trend remains intact for now. Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance: The first resistance level is at 1.1200, followed by 1.1275, which represents the July 18, 2023 high. Support: The first support level is at 1.1135, followed by 1.1100. Fundamental Factors: US Dollar: The potential weakness of the US Dollar is a key factor. The likelihood of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates in 2024 could contribute to a decline in the Dollar, increasing bullish pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Although the data on initial jobless claims (219,000 vs. 231,000) temporarily supported the Dollar, the prevailing risk sentiment in the markets reintroduced bearish pressure on the Dollar later in the week. European Central Bank (ECB): Comments from ECB members indicate that no significant monetary policy changes are expected until December. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech could have market impacts. If she opens the door to a rate cut as early as October, it could weaken the Euro. However, at this time, such a possibility seems unlikely.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GBPUSD: After the FED, Awaiting the BOE and BOJ!The GBP/USD pair found support near the 1.3150 area on Thursday, temporarily halting the correction from the recent high of 1.3300, the highest level since March 2022. The 4-hour RSI remains close to 70, suggesting that the pair could enter overbought territory in the short term if it continues to rise. The bullish sentiment for GBP/USD has been supported by expectations of an aggressive rate cut from the Fed, which has weakened the US Dollar. This week, markets are awaiting the rate decisions from the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ). In the short term, GBP/USD could consolidate above 1.3200 before potentially resuming its rise toward 1.3260 and 1.3300. On the downside, a break below 1.3150 would open the door for a drop towards 1.3100, especially if US economic data supports a rebound in the dollar.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
Gold Analysis: Waiting for the Fed!Gold prices attracted buying after a brief overnight corrective drop, finding support due to expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed. This limits the attempted recovery of the US Dollar (USD) and supports the precious metal, although buyers seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of key central bank events. Immediate resistance is at the all-time high of $2,590, with a test of the psychological level of $2,600 if surpassed. Acceptance above this level could open the door to the next target of $2,650. On the other hand, if the Fed disappoints market expectations for a more accommodative stance, gold could face a fresh wave of selling. In that case, the price could drop towards $2,532 and $2,500. The Fed's decision on Wednesday represents a crucial point for the future direction of gold. Markets currently estimate a 65% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut, and the weakness of the US Dollar could continue to provide fundamental support for gold. However, if the Fed opts for a more moderate 25 basis point cut, the dollar could see an immediate upward reaction. More important than the decision itself will be the Fed’s communication, including Jerome Powell's words and the Dot Plot, which will provide guidance on future policy.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EUR/USD Rally: Weak Fed, Cautious ECBThe EUR/USD pair broke above the 1.1100 level due to weakness in the US dollar, driven by expectations of a rate cut by the Fed. The Dollar Index (DXY) is declining, while US and German yields have dropped. The ECB, on the other hand, has shown caution regarding future rate cuts, supporting the euro. Key resistance levels for EUR/USD are 1.1137, 1.1155, 1.1201, and 1.1275. Support lies at 1.1071, with further levels at 1.1030 and 1.1001. The RSI is near 67, suggesting a potential overbought area, but the bullish trend remains intact as long as the price stays above the 200-day moving average. If the dollar continues to weaken, EUR/USD could target 1.1155 and beyond. Conversely, a break below 1.1071 could indicate a correction toward 1.1030 and 1.1001.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Gold Market Analysis: Fed Speculation and Dollar StrengthFundamental Overview: US Dollar Strength and Interest Rate Speculations: Gold’s price movement is currently influenced by the strength of the US Dollar, driven by shifting expectations regarding interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Following the release of mixed US labor market data, investor bets on a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut in September have decreased. The probability of such a cut is now seen at 29%, down from 47% before the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. This shift in expectations has strengthened the US Dollar, putting pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. Safe-Haven Demand and Global Concerns: Despite the downward pressure from the stronger dollar, concerns over a slowdown in China’s economy have increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. The precious metal remains supported as a hedge against risk during times of economic uncertainty. Moreover, rising US Treasury yields contribute to gold’s struggles, as higher yields make other assets more attractive compared to non-yielding gold. Upcoming Inflation Data: All eyes are on the upcoming US inflation data, which could significantly impact gold’s price movements. Inflation is a key indicator for the Fed’s future rate decisions, and any surprises in the data could trigger volatility in both the US Dollar and gold. If inflation comes in higher than expected, it could dampen the prospects for aggressive Fed rate cuts, further pressuring gold. Fed’s Blackout Period: The Fed has entered its “blackout period” ahead of the September 18th policy decision, meaning there will be no further communication from central bankers. This leaves gold trading in a familiar range, awaiting clearer direction from inflation data and the upcoming Fed decision. Outlook and Key Events: Bullish Scenario: If gold manages to hold the $2,499 support level and breaks through the $2,532 resistance, it could extend gains towards $2,550. Bearish Scenario: If gold fails to defend the $2,499 level, it could drop to $2,472 and potentially $2,461. A further strengthening of the dollar and rising yields would exert additional bearish pressure.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EUR/USD Analysis: Fundamental and Technical OutlookFundamental Overview: Eurozone Inflation: Recent inflation data from the eurozone points toward expectations of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). This could weigh on the euro in the medium term, as lower interest rates generally reduce the currency's appeal by offering lower yields for investors. US Economic Data: The August jobs report revealed weaker-than-expected growth in the private sector, with only 99,000 jobs added compared to the forecast of 145,000. This contributed to the US dollar’s weakness. US Monetary Policy: Current market expectations suggest a 43% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This factor weakens the dollar further, but a shift in sentiment based on economic data could reverse the trend. Technical Analysis: Resistance Levels: 1.1160 serves as the first key resistance level, followed by 1.1200, which marks the endpoint of the latest uptrend. If the rally continues, 1.1250 becomes the next target for buyers. Support Levels: If EUR/USD falls below 1.1100, it could trigger bearish pressure. The next significant support lies at 1.1040 .
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Spot Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart AnalysisStrategy Overview: The chart shows Spot Crude Oil on a 30-minute timeframe, where price action is consolidating around the 70.00 USD level. The market is currently trading in a tight range, suggesting the possibility of an upcoming breakout. Key Levels: Support Levels: The price is finding support at 69.871, which acts as a critical level for potential upward movements. A break below this support could signal further downside momentum, possibly testing lower levels around 69.399. Resistance Levels: The nearest resistance sits at 70.431, where the price may face selling pressure if tested. Further resistance is identified in the 72.00-72.50 zone, marked as a strong supply area. A successful breakout above this resistance could indicate a stronger bullish move in the medium term. Trading Strategy: Buying Strategy: A buy entry can be considered near the support level of 69.871, with a stop loss just below this level. The first target would be the 70.431 resistance zone, and the second target can be the 72.00-72.50 range. Selling Strategy: If the price fails to break above 70.431, a short position can be initiated targeting a pullback towards 69.871. A break below this level would confirm the bearish momentum. RSI Confirmation: The RSI indicator is showing neutral momentum, hovering around the middle range. A breakout above 70.431 may be confirmed if the RSI moves into overbought territory, while a drop below 69.871 could push the RSI toward oversold conditions. Conclusion: With price consolidating between 69.871 and 70.431, this chart suggests both buying and selling opportunities based on how the market reacts to these key levels. The upcoming sessions could see either a breakout above resistance for bullish continuation or a failure that could result in a bearish correction.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDELong
by Nigouk
Will the theme of weak demand and oversupply dampen oil prospectMacro theme: - Oil prices have declined since last week as investors expect an OPEC+ supply increase in Oct and a potential deal in Libya to resume production, possibly adding over 500,000 barrels per day. - Weak economic data from China, including Tue's ISM Manufacturing PMI, highlighted the country's sluggish recovery, fuelling calls for more stimulus. - Concerns over China's weak demand and the prospect of increased supply are likely to keep oil prices under pressure in the short term. Technical theme: - USOIL tested EMAs' area confluence with 77.00 resistance before breaking below 71.50 support to maintain a bearish structure. - If USOIL maintains below the 71.50 level, the price may continue to decline to test 67.80 support. - On the contrary, if USOIL can close above 71.50, the price may retrace to retest its EMA21 along with the upper bound of its descending channel.
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by DatTong
Analysis of the Dollar Index (DXY)Overview: On Tuesday, the Dollar Index (DXY) showed weak performance, failing to consolidate the partial recovery seen on Monday after last week's sharp decline. Although the dollar posted gains against major Asian currencies, such as the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Korean Won (KRW), these gains were quickly erased during the US trading session. The return of a "risk-on" sentiment in the markets, with stock indices rising in Asia, Europe, and US futures, has led investors to move away from safe-haven assets, further weighing on the dollar. Fundamental Factors: Market Sentiment: The return of the "risk-on" sentiment has favored riskier assets at the expense of the US dollar. The easing of tensions in the Middle East has helped reduce flows into safe-haven assets, exerting bearish pressure on the DXY. Economic Data: On Tuesday, attention will be focused on the weekly mortgage applications data published by the MBA and the EIA's report on US crude oil inventories. Additionally, the speech by Federal Reserve's Waller could provide further insight into the direction of US monetary policy. Currency Performance: The EUR/USD has resumed its bullish trend, partially erasing the weakness seen at the start of the week. The British pound (GBP/USD) reached over two-year highs, supported by expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will not cut rates as much as the markets anticipated. Commodities and Precious Metals: WTI saw a sharp decline, breaking a three-day winning streak due to renewed demand concerns and some profit-taking. Gold prices alternated between gains and losses above the $2,500 per ounce mark, while silver prices remained near the $30.00 per ounce level.
TVC:DXYLong
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
USD/JPY: Limited Recovery Below 145.00!General Overview: USD/JPY remains near 145.00 in the Asian session on Tuesday, despite a cautious market environment. The pair benefits from the recent rebound of the US Dollar and higher US Treasury yields. However, the divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to be a key factor that could influence the pair’s movement in the coming days. Fundamental Factors: Japanese Macroeconomic Data: Japan's recent GDP growth in the second quarter exceeded expectations, strengthening the case for a possible interest rate hike by the BoJ. This temporarily strengthened the Japanese Yen (JPY), contributing to the downward pressure on USD/JPY. Monetary Policy and the Fed: The US Dollar found support from higher US Treasury yields, but expectations of a rate cut by the Fed in September limit the upside potential. Specifically, the debate is focused on a possible 25 basis point cut, with a 60% probability, while there is still a 36% chance of a more significant 50 basis point cut, according to CME FedWatch.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GBP/USD in Rally: Geopolitical Calm Sparks Bullish MomentumThe GBP/USD pair is currently in a bullish phase, trading near its highest level in the past three weeks, just below the 1.2900 mark. This movement followed the easing of concerns about a broader conflict in the Middle East, after recent hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon did not escalate further. The reduction in geopolitical tensions has supported risk sentiment, helping GBP/USD to rise. Fundamental Analysis The recent rise in GBP/USD can be attributed to a combination of diminishing geopolitical risks and favorable technical positioning. On Thursday, the pair initially fell towards 1.2800 following positive economic data from the United States. Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. decreased by 7,000, reaching 227,000, and retail sales for July increased by 1%, well above the expected 0.3%. This positive data temporarily strengthened the U.S. Dollar. However, with the improvement in risk sentiment throughout the day, GBP/USD regained momentum and closed in positive territory. The resilience of GBP/USD despite the positive U.S. data suggests an underlying bullish momentum driven by risk appetite. Looking ahead, the U.S. economic calendar includes data on housing starts and building permits for July, along with the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan for August. Outlook The short-term direction for GBP/USD will likely be influenced by risk sentiment and potential profit-taking as the week comes to a close. A bullish opening on Wall Street could weaken the U.S. Dollar and support further gains in GBP/USD.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
USOIL AnalysisOil prices have surged on Monday, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and potential disruptions in Libyan oil production. The recent uptick in violence between Israel and Hezbollah, coupled with ongoing drone attacks and bombings, has severely diminished the prospects of a Gaza ceasefire deal, pushing oil prices higher. Adding fuel to the fire, Libya is facing a significant disruption in oil production due to an internal political conflict between rival governments vying for control over the central bank. The sudden halt in production exacerbates supply concerns, contributing to the sharp rise in oil prices. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling after a poor performance last week, influenced by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's confirmation of an impending interest rate cut in September. However, markets may be overestimating the scale and pace of these cuts, which could have broader implications for the oil market if expectations are not met. Technical Analysis Oil is currently in a strong position at the start of the week. Despite fears of a sell-off from hedge funds, oil prices have rallied, potentially inviting more bullish positioning. The violence in the Middle East raises doubts about the feasibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and any further escalation could drive prices even higher. On the technical front, WTI Crude Oil is trading around $77.07, while Brent Crude is at $80.44. A key resistance level is at $77.65, which aligns with both a descending trendline and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A break above this level could see the 100-day SMA at $78.45 act as another potential rejection point. On the downside, support remains at $71.17, the low from August 5, which has provided a base for the current rebound. Should prices fall below $70.00, the next significant support levels to watch are $68.00 and $67.11, the latter being the lowest point from the triple bottom formation seen in June 2023.
TVC:USOILShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1