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Open Interest

Equity sentiment suddenly got very bearish this weekSentiment Is Suddenly Very Bearish on Equities, SPX, NDX, RUT It's been a volatile few weeks of trading as the S&P 500 pulled back a bit (and the Nasdaq pulled back a bit more). Bearish sentiment has grown as the price dipped. The $CPCE equity put/call ratio rose sharply this week to levels last seen in March 2020, near the beginning of the pandemic. The current put/call ratio on the $SPY S&P 500 ETF is 1.5. That's actually better than the average for the last 30 days (1.7), but it's still quite negative. Sentiment is even more negative on the $QQQ Nasdaq ETF, with a put/call ratio of 2.2. The $IWM Russell 2000 small cap ETF is looking even worse, at 2.3. Stock market options traders seem to think that interest rates will continue to rise and the stock market bubble is soon to burst. A lot of the finance wonks I follow on Twitter sold into Friday's strength. However, options on the $TLT 20+ year Treasury bond ETF are sending a different signal. With a put/call ratio of 0.9, bond wonks appear to expect at least a short-term weakening of rates and a rally in bonds from here. $TLT has entered a region of fairly strong technical support: Despite Negative Sentiment, There Are Lots of Fundamental Reasons to Be Bullish To be honest, I think the bearish sentiment in equities may be premature. We've got a fourth vaccine thanks to Johnson & Johnson, with Merck slated to help provide manufacturing capacity. This means we could get all US adults vaccinated 2 months earlier than expected. Plus Merck seems on the verge of getting approval for a Covid therapeutic that could be helpful as well. The savings rate rose during the pandemic, and a lot of that "quarantined cash" will be unleashed on markets as people get vaccinated. Plus, there's more liquidity in the pipeline. We've got another round of $1400 stimulus checks coming. Markets have been worried about a federal minimum wage hike, but it doesn't look like that will happen. The stimulus bill provides $300 billion of support to state and city governments, which removes one of the big risks to the recovery: rising state and local taxes to cover budget shortfalls. Despite rising interest rates, private lending has ticked upward in recent weeks: An uptick in private lending historically has been a confirmation signal that a recession has ended, as I laid out in a previous post: Plus, the jobs numbers this week surpassed analyst expectations by a wide margin, and the ECRI leading economic index has resumed its upward trend. So economic data are signaling continued recovery ahead. The Bear Case Is About Valuations and Rising Interest Rates The bear case would seem to be threefold. First, valuations are very high. Which is absolutely true, but won't necessarily stop them from getting higher. Second, more stimulus means more inflation, which means interest rates could continue to rise. (Inflation is bullish for stocks, but rising interest are bearish. So it's a tug of war between the two, and the question is whether rising interest rates will be enough to rein inflation in. The bears are betting that it will.) And third, there's a technical case for continued market weakness, because $SPY has violated its support trend line. However, I suspect it will establish a new, less steep support line a bit below the previous one. I suppose we could see a 10% correction to the 50-day EMA: But even that feels unlikely to me, given the strength of the fundamentals. I think this correction could prove much more modest than that: Admittedly, I'm not pouring cash into this market at these valuations. But despite rising bearish sentiment, I'm pulling cash out of the market, either. In my opinion, it's likely too early for that, given the fundamentals.
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by ChristopherCarrollSmith
13
Options positioning in Tesla has flipped bearishLooking Back on Tesla's 2020 Bull Run Tesla is massively overvalued and has been for a long time. We're talking probably something from 20-100x fair value, to be honest. But Tesla has also continuously moved higher, for several reasons. First, institutions have been systematically gamma-squeezing the stock higher by buying out-of-the-money call options on it. (The story of the Tesla stock run is often told as a story of retail hype, but in fact most of the out-of-the-money call buys have been very large, and when you drill into the data, you find that Tesla is surprisingly not actually a favorite of small retail out-of-the-money call buyers.) Second, there used to be some fairly large short positions open on Tesla. The shorts have gotten squeezed as the stock moved higher and have almost all been forced to cover. Why the Bull Run May Be Over Over the last 30 days, Tesla's average put/call ratio was .67. Yesterday someone opened a very large out-of-the-money put position on Tesla, and today the put/call ratio is 1.3. That represents an extremely bearish shift in options interest, and it suggests that the call options gamma squeeze on Tesla is probably over. The puts are spread across a lot of expiration dates, so this is not just a short-term bet. Someone is banking on Tesla entering a long, slow correction from here. The short squeeze is over too. Short interest on Tesla is now super low, with just one day to cover. In terms of technicals, Tesla has been moving in a large parallel channel and is currently in the top half of the channel, with much more downside than upside. It made two lower highs in February.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
20
Natural Gas - March Open Interest as of Jan 20,2021Compare March 2021 with March 2020 contract. + CFTC COT for Jan 12, 2021, (8 days ago) yestareday OI Preliminary was 11,152,349 (+16944) Are these all fresh new MM shorts? ---- My 5 layouts by the most used&updated: www.tradingview.com e-o-d CME OI vs week CFTC OI +Preliminary www.tradingview.com other studies www.tradingview.com DXY -0.11% and other curr vs Gold /E-Mini/WTI etc www.tradingview.com COT graphs www.tradingview.com Compare contracts yoy most of them use scripts I learned to use and can be copied
NYMEX:NGH2021Short
by giancapino
EOS- Big three Dapp platformsEOS, along with ETH and TRON, is one of the three most popular decentralized platforms in terms of amount of dapps, # of users and overall transaction and volume. It is down more than 80% from ATH and is one of the top 10 most popular coins on CB. However, there doesn't seem to have any short-term catalyst for price momentum according to derivative data and fundamental analysis. I think it will be nice to slowly scale in in the demand zone and have a small percentage of your capital allocated to EOS. Set the stoploss below the daily POC. Just my two cents. Not the investment advice.
by Libratus
2
GOLD is likely to penetrate the key area of 1850open interest : I've checked the open interest on CME website the 1850 and 1800 got the highest number of over 6000. That's the key zone we should have an eye on! Momentum : Obviously, battle btw sellers and buyers are still going with no clear result. however, with the sign of the lower low below the 50 EMA, I guess the upside momentum is weak which might result in the penetration of the area of 1850. Fundamental analysis : The news of the vaccine has undermine a key factor that support the rise of gold. With uncertainty removed, it will rely more on the movement of dollar.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by JICPT
2
WTI, Tue 13/10/2020, COT, Open Interest and CME PreliminaryTuesday 14 Oct 2020 will be the mark day of next COT report After a dip due to POTUS health fears, Open Interest reaches back to previous levels. Below or above 40, that seems to be the floating line, any October surprise would sink it Here a comparason between Nov Dec contracts 2018-2020: www.tradingview.com I suggest my few followers to watch my 5 (free account) views listed, updated, commented here: They show what I m following atm Mostly commodities: oil gold ng silver copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by giancapino
GBPCHF : Bearish Wolfe WaveHi. Forex CFTC COT Data : GBP Net Position Change : + % 5.24 CHF Net Position Change : + % 15.93 (Positive ) Percent Changes : CHF > GBP (Negative ) Open Interests' Changes : GBP : + % 0.34 CHF : + % 31.64 (Positive) Parameters Position Size : %1 (0.01) Risk/Reward Ratio : 3.00 Leverage : 50x - 100x (100x saves the stop value.) Stop-Loss : 1.1847 Goal : 1.15691 Take Profit Point : 1.1644 NOTE : Switzerland provides all of the manipulator country conditions. USA or China may declare Switzerland as a manipulator country in the coming days. If this is the case, the Swiss Franc will be more negative than all currencies. This should not be forgotten. Regards.
Short
by Noldo
3