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Opex

Trading Plan for Friday, March 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, March 15th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious on OPEX Friday Weekly Volatility Risk: High (amplified by OPEX) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5213 (major), 5207, 5200 (major), 5196, 5192 (major), 5181, 5176, 5165 (major), 5160, 5152, 5146 (major), 5141, 5136, 5126, 5119, 5109-11 (major), 5102, 5091 (major), 5086-88 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5221 (major), 5229-32 (major), 5236, 5240, 5246, 5251 (major), 5257, 5264, 5269, 5278, 5287 (major), 5294-96 (major), 5308, 5315 (major), 5326, 5337, 5343 (major), 5352 (major), 5362, 5375-80 (major) Trading Strategy: OPEX Caution OPEX Volatility: Expect potential chop and poor follow-through due to options expiration dynamics. Exercise increased caution and prioritize capital preservation. Limited Positions: Reduce position sizes or consider sitting out the majority of the day. Avoid impulsive overtrading. Watch Out for Chop: The zone between 5192 and 5230 is particularly messy. Trade with extreme care within this range. Support Focus: Watch 5213 and 5200 for potential bounce plays, however, these zones are heavily used up and may not offer reliable setups. Long Opportunity: Look for longs around 5192 (the last major support before a steeper sell-off). Avoid longs below 5165. Bull Case OPEX Range: Expect a potential ugly range trade between 5192 (lowest support) and 5230. A successful defense of supports would set up a breakout towards 5251 and further toward the 5290s. Overnight Strength: If overnight trading shows basing below 5220, consider potential upside towards the next resistance level. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5191 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces, ideally after a test of 5191. News: Top Stories for March 15th, 2024 Stock Market Rally: The S&P 500 continues its upward momentum, driven by strong fundamentals, earnings growth, particularly in the tech sector (AI stocks), and investor optimism for a Fed soft landing. Interest Rate Outlook: The Federal Reserve maintains its current interest rate policy but signals potential rate cuts later in the year. Mixed Economic Data: Economic indicators show both strength and pockets of weakness. GDP growth remains impressive, while inflation data suggests challenges in the Fed's fight to control prices. Banking Regulations: One year after bank run concerns, regulators prepare new rules to mitigate future financial instability. Corporate Debt Concerns: Corporate defaults rise, highlighting the strain of inflation and high interest rates on riskier borrowers. Private Equity Expansion: Private equity giants expand into consumer debt markets, potentially impacting household financial health. Inflation Updates: The CPI and Core CPI remain critical for understanding inflation trends and potential Federal Reserve rate changes. Global Risks: Monitor ongoing geopolitical tensions, climate risks, technological disruption, and election-related uncertainties for impacts on global markets. CFO Trends: Focus on digital transformation, strategic planning with AI/automation, and balanced growth strategies. Energy Transition: Challenges in the transition to net-zero energy become evident as major players face hurdles. Remember: Options Expiration (OPEX) can cause unpredictable market behavior. Trade with reduced risk, prioritize capital preservation, and be prepared for rapid shifts in direction. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Consult a professional financial advisor for trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
📢 Quad witching. What is it? What to expect? How to trade it.First thing, it's actually triple-witching now. There used to be a 4th contract, but now there's only 3. 3 contracts expire on this day: Index futures (S&P, Dow) contracts Index options (i.e. SP:SPX ) contracts Stock options ( NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:NVDA etc) contracts Single stock futures contracts. They don't exist anymore. That's why it's TRIPLE witching now. This only happens in March, June, September, and December. The third Friday. For example, when you buy "AAPL 100c 9/15/23", the date is the expiration. Only if it's ITM and you're holding before close, you will have to decide to KEEP your contracts, ROLL them over, or SELL them. If you KEEP, you'll get 100 shares per contract. Now imagine $3.4T worth of contracts having to go through that on the same day. Volatility. There's $3.4T worth of contracts expiring tomorrow--- the highest ever in any September expiration, and the 6th largest ever. 10 of the last 11 September witching, SPY finished red around -0.50%. I calculated the range for SPY during the last 3 years of witching, it's around 6.5-7 points. The ATR for SPY for the last 60 days is 4.58 points. The week after September witching tends to be a rollercoaster ride. March 20, 2020 was a witching day (yes pandemic, but good to know) So what should you do? If you have no experience, do nothing. If you're **day-trading**, take your gains quickly and don't expect a lot. If you're adding to your swings, wait for good dips. Expect the highest volatility around 2-4 PM. Don't trade 0DTE. If you do, don't hold for glory. Lol. Watch for impulsive moves causing SL raids Watch the closely. It will be very telling since whales will be readjusting positions and possibly rolling/ reloading. Expect volatility. High volume on indices, major stocks, and further out option contracts (people rolling over their contracts) Expect liquidity grabs, fake outs, etc. If you don't trade it, enjoy the volatility. Watch TVC:VIX (volatility index) Don't go heavy on any positions. Buy slow, don't chase, and ask questions if unsure. Don't force trades. Don't FOMO buy. Don't chase. Don't get caught in the volatility. Use support/ resistance/ supply/ demand zones. They work best on these days as they show liquidity grabs, fakeouts, etc. Just looking out. Hope you benefitted. I'll be posting my trades in my community linked below. Welcome to come & follow.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by kingdips
ES1! Analysis Update into OPEX, FED, and EOYES1! 6WK: Update from April 14, 2023 Publish: +8% shift of structure upwards and price rediscovery from March 2022 levels. A period of inside candles preceding May 8,2023 reflected support at sigma 2. Risk on sentiment as evidenced by confluence of sigma 1 and 0.5 fibonacci level (4155.25) is now approaching 0.236 fibonacci level (4500). This is a high area of interest as PA reverts to mean because: it is where price acceptance has occurred (Oct 2020) and where price acceptance was rejected (Feb 2020)// Regression analysis with pearsons r of .9786// Price at time of study 4483.25// Upcoming macro events and earnings guidance will be factored in alongside breadth and yield measures// Bias: Neutral to risk on
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by GroundNinja
If we crash it will look like this.JHQTX and OPEX Window of Weakness 1. Vanna and Charm Flows gain strength 2. VIX Print for the month 3. Window of Weakness Options and Vol are entering in a very fragile time when flows can be at their technical weakest. When social media start speaking about goldilocks (economy goes not to hot, not to cold). That could be this months OPEX (Options Expiry). A slow grind higher into CPI is likely due to well supplied vol leading up to the event. But CPI is likely to be a catalyst into VIX and OPEX prints. My outlook is that anything above the 20D is a buyable dip right now. If dealers Gamma Exposure suddenly moves negative before CPI and Vix Expiry I will be the first to clang the cow bell. There are 3 big hedged equity funds I monitor from JPM and JHQTX is the smallest of the three, which means technical flows from this fund are the weakest of the monthly rolls. Flows from JHEQX (largest fund) and JHQDX (middle fund) are stronger 20 days before expiration as Gamma becomes a bigger factor and IV that spikes from a weak VIX print into OPEX bleeds off into end of month expiry options like our HEFS. Months that JHEQX and JHQDX pin the market to a certain expiry with supportive flows, JHQTX tends to be the runt of the litter because it always ends up coming in short. The weakest point in markets will be Feb 15th - 28th. The next weak spot would be May 17 - 19
SP:SPX
by SPYvsGME
10
Gme looking good Some people have been worried about NYSE:GME and if the cycles were dead. Good news gme looks to still be on the cycle. Bad news Nov opex was in November. Shocked Pickachu face. After falling from the August run up gme stayed flat (1) while other meme stocks like NYSE:AMC and NASDAQ:TSLA fell (2). Because gme didn't get shorted it had a weak barely noticeable Nov Opex. however, as you can see other meme stocks did have a Nov opex (and you can even see gme did too albeit a small one). No shorting no opex. This may be disappointing for people still waiting for it. Good news however is after Nov opex all the meme stocks got shorted (3) and we seem to in the middle of bouncing from that (4). In short gme was dead sept 7th -dec 7th but now appears to be back on track. Gamestop correlates strongly with inverse VIX. Correlation broke on Oct 31st 2022 for some reason and restored Jan 6th 2023.I believe we may be playing out the Vix movement from Oct 31st onwards delayed. VIX has gone down since then so we should go up.Vix has kept its trend and should go lower today and Gme should pop today. I believe we may be playing out delayed price action from when correlation broke (labeled with a 4) Would like to see a 10% up day and to break 24 today. Other meme stocks have rebounded to the price level they were at before they got shorted down. I expect gme to eventually get back to $25-$27. Depending on optiion interest that could cause a large run up past that. Also, ftd's have started on gme again stocksera.pythonanywhere.com and are due in febuary further helping gme. all in all, it's been a rough several months, but everything is looking really good for a run on gme soon.
NYSE:GMELong
by J2DP
3
ES1! (S&P 500 Futures) and NQ1! (Nasdaq Futures) Ascending WedgeBoth the indices showing the Ascending Wedge Pattern. I would like to see the break of support around 11266.75 for NQ and 3700.00 for S&P to short but ideal entry would be on the break of the pattern + re-test of the support trendline. Targets for NQ1! - 11228.50 11165.50 111068.75 Targets for ES1! - 3700.00 3661.50 3642.00 NOTE: This pattern is forming right before OPEX (17 June 2022) / Quad Witching. Maybe this market pushes up before the volatility comes in and OPEX plays out where a decline in stocks is observed around the end of the day.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ImSooCool
ES1! - Opex Week Preview in 3DYhe 10Y Note Yield Gained 4.8% on Friday, topping out at 1.79%. The echoes from the pundits are calling for a return to value as high beta-growth has seen continued pressure, with ARKK leading the declines. NQ1! defended it's 4h Higher low on Friday with a hammer but remains in a 4h Real-Body Bear-Flag. In contrast RTY1! (Russell 2000) and YM1! (Dow Jones Industrial Average), set lower lows before their bounces. RTY1! is in a 4h bear channel, approaching the upper-bound. Vix lost steam at 22 finding support at 19. For consolidation to continue the path is a Daily H&S neckline break, in the most recent test of the largest expansion in the History of the Federal Reverse's Balance Sheet. This looks like a middle, with major markets offering divergent clues. Opex weeks have a way of offering abrupt clarity.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Pennywick
2
TSLA into Dec OPEX with 38% of gamma expiring FridayTesla $TSLA has 38.25% of gamma expiring this Friday Breach of 908/900 would fill gap lower to 895. Previous upside nine from Jan 885 could act as support. 875 is a previous upside nine on the daily from Oct 18, bottom of that range is 850/843 and lower Fib support is near 815. MACD / RSI currently over sold with ATR expanding after selling volume came in after recent ath print. It is worth noting that major players, institutions and commercial traders are avoiding the over head risk of Elon Musk selling shares. We would want to see bulls hold these support levels and then we could focus on upside resistance as key levels to break. Depending on repositioning in the market post Dec OPEX we could see the stock reverse or continue the price downgrade cycle. With interest rates expected to hike + EV names being generally expensive in the market, anything can happen. It is best to size light and play Tesla with profits, always expect 0 if trading weeklies and try to enter at key levels. Best of luck trading! When the stock doesn't hold the level containing the largest OI (1000 strike) You see dealers start to offload shares as the otm calls become less risk to them.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Freshly_Snipes
1
2 Weeks until Quad WitchingLots of volatility possible in between now and Quad Witching in 2 weeks. Thu Dec9 30-y Auction Fri Dec 10 CPI Wed Dec 15 FOMC Fri Dec 17 Quad Witching The first 3 I don't think are going to cause much volatility, but it all depends on the result of each. The Quad Witching may be a bit more predictable. During the past 2 years, the QE+Stimulus driven markets have changed how derivatives effect market price. A side-effect makes market indexes somewhat more predictable, particularly around OPEX (options expiry). Most notable is the quad witching expiry days. The third Friday of March, June, September, December It's when stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously. I plotted the last 4 Quads with comments so you can see the extent of sell offs. -1.18% to -1.81%. Sept 17 -1.39% - Sell off started after a rejecting 20D MA June 18 - 1.81% - Sell off started 3am and continued to close. 20D MA to 50D MA Mar 19 - 1.24% - Volatility Overnight, 9am sell off, 10am - 3pm rally, Sell off into close. Breaking and ending on 20D MA Dec 18 - 1.20% - Overnight melt up, 9am sell off until 3pm. + %1.16 rally into close. Buy The Dip Trend. The Market forgets quickly. Overnight it seems sometimes. Pepperidge Farms Remembers. We just reentered bottom of 2yr trading channel MSM caught wind of the OPEX buy the dip trend. VIX Structure To help with entry of my puts / UVXY I refer to the VIX structure a week or 2 in advance. Not Financial Advice. A 007 Trading Journal.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SPYvsGME
What to expect leading up to this months OPEX.Every 3rd Friday of the calendar month is OPEX (Option Expiration). The difference during the most recent OPEX cycle was: Excessive Front Running OPEX DIP Evergrande / Contagion Debt Ceiling Crisis China / Taiwan Tensions Inflation / Hyperinflation ------- Kai Volatility ------ Kai Volatility refers what happened as a Second Move Phenomenon. read about it here Karsan: This is an effect of Oct Ivol being hi relative to everything behind it due to unbalanced dealer positioning. This makes it hard for market to decline w/any speed this week &’ll cause some combination of 3 effects:lower skew,lower IVol, & higher prices. The< of 1 the > of others. Q: Will that effect wear off with Vanna & Charm leaving next week (OCT11-15) though? Karsan: Yes. But the question remains, will we have fixed the technical damage and squeezed enough to support longer term flows by the time next week is here. ------------------------------- I reproduced this VIX I found on fintwit (full cred to stockcharts ) chart from to help illustrate this healing process. I'm watching the levels 4430 - 3 month point of control on volume profile 4365 - gamma flip line via @SpotGamma 4300-4400 - range of sept bear month. I highlighted some key closing points that have identical VIX structure and direction that would indicate a gap up Monday. Not Financial Advice. Only My Observations.
SP:SPX
by SPYvsGME
SPX. Bulls Vs. The World. Bulls VS. OPEX +FOMC + Seasonality . The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of twelve members--the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. The rotating seats are filled from the following four groups of Banks, one Bank president from each group: Boston, Philadelphia, and Richmond; Cleveland and Chicago; Atlanta, St. Louis, and Dallas; and Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco. Nonvoting Reserve Bank presidents attend the meetings of the Committee, participate in the discussions, and contribute to the Committee's assessment of the economy and policy options. The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.
SP:SPX
by samitrading
4
$AAPL - A bounce to 155 and a fall to 148This is the short term view of Apple. Currently within wave 4 (green) of wave 3 (blue) of wave 5 (white) im expecting a bounce this week to 155 before a trace for leg C to finish the green wave 4 around 148. From there 165 is the target, likely by late Nov to mid Dec. Keep in mind that Sept 17 and Dec 17 are quad witching days. I may look to play Nov or Dec calls for 155-160 when apple hits 148. A weekly play of 150 by Sept 17 may pay off as well, but is risky as this Friday is quad witching, so expect high volatility. Potential Play: 9/17 150c @2.10 SL: 1.81 stop 1.80 Limit PT: 4.90 Limit (assuming share price = 154.50 by sept 15)
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by ir-rizzle
The next 3 weeks should be fun.We plowed through new highs last week as I anticipated in a bull case last week. The green levels in this weeks chart are last weeks major daily support / resistance levels from a couple order flow experts on fintwit. First thing I learned in stocks was that when the Normies (normal people) know, it's time to go. The 19th* dip trend I've been following since last week has started hitting MSM. With that in mind, I find myself second guessing the 19th dip prediction this coming September and instead planning the extremes that could occur instead. 1. We could start unwinding OPEX/VIX early as big money tries to get ahead of the normies buying the 19th dip. 2. More explosive events and FUD fill the market and we actually run above the 1.5Y median like we did last end of September. 3. We stay in tight, low volume trading ranges, accumulate at the 1.5y median followed by a spring event, distribution/bull trap and a sell off into VIX / OPEX and Buy the Dip 19th*. I love this game.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYvsGME
2
BLNK A Little Too ExpensiveThere's no doubt BLNK has had a meteoric rise over the past few months. Gains YTD are up over 2,500%. This is a company that I think has a bright future (no pun intended), but not at this valuation. Current price is trading at multiples of 344x of sales, 95x of book value and 104x cash. Most recent 10Q shows me that: GP is up approx 122% from 3Q of last year while Operating Expense is up 38%. OPEX increase was largely in part of increased compensation and G&A expenses. Operating Expense now represents 292% of Revenue compared to the 364% reported same quarter last year. So the company is growing. Here's the downside. Share price is now based on a valuation decades into the future. Chart shows that we've got RSI divergence along the highs so expect a pull back. I'm interested buying but at the right price.
NASDAQ:BLNK
by NetWorthFocused
17