Optimism Seasonality Trade 150-200xIntroduction
It seems like every year some crypto absolutely explode upwards the first 10 days or so of the year and many of them get slapped back to the ground and even end up lower than their starting points while others just seem to continually moon. Those cryptos grab a lot of attention for the whole market and they end up being one of the momentum trades for the first half of the year. As they cool off other momentum trades pick up. For some comparison I am going to compare the current state of Optimism to Matic in 2021 and then compare the bull runs of Matic to Solana.
Similarities Between OP and Matic at the New Year
Price really tight on multi month consolidation triangles.
Accordingly, price tight to 20 period SMA
The volatility stop suggest price is going to break to the upside
Log MACD and Histogram action really tight around zero
Most importantly, both were new coins
All of these suggest that a big move is coming. I have some fib-based targets I am looking at and have already set take profits. When the Log MACD starts to show some bearish divergence, I may be closing my trade manually because my target isn't getting reached. Bearish divergence on the Log MACD on the 3-day interval is pretty powerful
And, less you think I am crazy, here is the Matic fib draw. And I think the current OP formation is stronger than the Matic formation was.
Comparing Matic & Solana Last Bull Run
Two of the major players last bull run were Matic and Solana. Both had very big January moves (like I hope OP to have) but they behaved differently on the way up. Matic was more bullish out of the gates and went 125x very quickly over the course of just 5 months. During that same time Solana only went 40x. Now, most the times the trend is your friend until the end so you would have hoped MATIC would have had even more upside but no. It double topped.
Then the relatively humble Solana went bonkers and had a total move of 200x and was able to set a higher high when MATIC was double topping. My target for OP is roughly a 170-185x from here which puts it closer for the 9 month move and not the 5 month move. If that is the case, then is it is more likely there will be a month-month consolidation like Solana had and then the majority of the move will happen.
Of course, if my OP position is up 125x in a matter of 5-6 months I will be more than happy to find something else to rotate into, even if it doesn't hit my 180x target
Closing thoughts
There are very view going I see poised like I see OP. OP is different because it went sideways while many coins were shedding value. The top runners of 2021 are on my watch list, not my trade list. I think they still have 9-18 months to consolidate from their runs. Of course, the 2021 top runners are not new coins anymore.
