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Expected Key Points NDX/NQ 12 May 2022NDX/NQ 17 May 2022 The daily expected volatility is around 2.47% With an 77% accuracy based on the historical data, we can assume that the price of NDX/NQ today is going to be between TOP 12540 BOT 11930 All of this taken into account with the opening price of today which was 12240* From Fundamental/News point of view that can affect NDX/NQ price: In 10h from now, FED Chair Powel speaks However, be careful because even tho we have a strong 77% probability behind us, because of Powel speech, it can be easily broken
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
Expected Key Points SPX/ES 11 May 2022SPX/ES 11 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 32.11%/year So that converted into daily is 2.02% The opening price was on 3991 So based on that our TOP 4070 BOT 3910 This channel has a 87% change to sustain based on the last 1048 candles At the same time with 85% we can affirm that the price is going to be above TOP 4000 BOT 3980 From fundamental point, today we have CPI release and this marks a huge volatility moment From volume point, current POC is around 4000 We can expect now with close to 74% that the market is going to end up between TOP 4000 - 4071 BOT 3910 - 3982
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May Apple Iron CondorApple 9 - 13 May The weekly VXAPL-> Volatility Index for APPLE Implied = 39.02 In this we have to standard it for weekly session 39.02 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 5.41% My historical product is telling me with 1.5x coficient that the expected movement for this week E Volatility = 39.39 / sqrt(52) = 5.46% With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 86.6% chance that the market stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol So for next week this range for us is going to be TOP - 166 BOT - 149 Lets look into an iron condor oppotunity for trading: 165Call Sell - 167.5Call Buy 149Put sell - 147 Put buy This is giving us at the current moment a 0.26 expectancy So taking into account from 621weekly candles, that 82% of the times the market stay within our top/bot channel, Our profit margin would be 82% * 0.26 - 18%*1 = 4.2ROI after 100 trades
NASDAQ:AAPL
by exlux
7
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May SPY Iron CondorSPY 9 - 13 May The weekly VIX -> Volatility Index for S&P 500 index VIX = 30.2 In this we have to standard it for weekly session 30.2 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 4.19% My historical product is telling me with 1.5x coficient that the expected movement for this week E Volatility = 31.3 / sqrt(52) = 4.34% With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 90% chance that the market stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol So for next week this range for us is going to be TOP - 429 BOT - 394 Lets look into an iron condor oppotunity for trading: 429Call Sell - 432Call Buy 394Put sell - 391 Put buy This is giving us at the current moment a 0.32 expectancy So taking into account from 1166 weekly candles, that 89% of the times the market stay within our top/bot channel, Our profit margin would be 89.4% * 0.32 - 10.6%*1 = 18.6ROI after 100 trades
AMEX:SPY
by exlux
SP500 28 April 2022Close candle of 27 April = 4180 Expected opening price for today = 4210(at least based on ES movement and volume) TOP Side = 4280 - 4300 according to Implied Volatility and ATR BOT Side = 4120 - 4100 according to Implied Volatility and ATR Expected movement at 28April 00h between 1.5 - 2.5% movement during the day In terms of fundamentals that can affect SP500 At 14:30 european time(in 4h) we have the release of : US GDP US Jobless claims Both of the them are expected to lower than previous values -> Bearish Movements So final decision: Once SPX is going to get closer to 4280-4300 we can go into a short trade with SL around 4325-4330 ? and aim for 4250-4200 However all of this can changed based on whats going to happen within the first hour of SPX opening The current intraday mood for SPX is fully bearish because of yesterday. However there a high chance that within the first hour of opening we can get an Iron condor SIGNAL, with 4280/4125 aproximatively. Further update will come once the SPx opens
SP:SPX
by exlux
BAC Mid-Long Term Entry Play (Positions & Options)Technical Related: - Double Top on BAC (already hit) - Hit resistance level (around $38.25) - MACD dipped extremely under half-line (more room for volatility) - No further bearish technical indications News Related: - War between Ukraine & Russia heating up (bearish) - Bank of America's financials are good + getting better (bullish) - Buy rating given from analysts - 1-yr price target: $51.57 - EPS Estimate: 3.26 The Play: - Long-term position entries - Long-term option entries? - Mid-term option entries *Please critique me on anything as I am new to charting :)
NYSE:BACLong
by yewac
SPX 0dte Income Trading - Feb 23’22 4235/4230 Bull Put SpreadSPX 0dte Income Trading - Feb 23’22 4235/4230 Bull Put Spread 💡 Feb 23’22 4235/4230 Bull Put Spread $75 Premium Received (per contract) 80% Probability of Profit (at entry) 11:21 AM Time of Entry Stop 2.5x Premium Short strike is below the heavy put strike of 4250 (-48M Gamma Notional) and the previous sessions low. Expecting a range bound within the high and low of the previous session. Could see another short cover rally if price reclaims 4300 (-66M Gamma Notional). WHAT IS 0DTE TRADING? 0dte or zero days to expiration refer to the last trading day for an option contract. The Chicago Board Options Exchange ( Cboe ) lists weekly options on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) with expirations every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. Since most options expire worthless we take advantage of this by selling credit spreads to collect premium. Our option trading strategy allows us to profit if the market moves up, down or doesn't move at all. ✅ Consistent Cash Flow ✅ High Probability of Profit ✅ No Overnight Risk
SP:SPX
by 0dteTraders
SPX 0dte Income Trading - Jan 26’22 4490/4495 Bear Call SpreadSPX 0dte Income Trading - SPX Jan 26’22 4490/4495 Bear Call Spread 💡 SPX Jan 26’22 4490/4495 Bear Call Spread $95 Premium Received (per contract) 81% Probability of Profit (at entry) 9:31 PM Time of Entry Momentum is nearing a peak and RSI is turning down from overbought territory (15min). Expecting to drift lower, fill the gap below and see a pivot around noon where we've tend to see a shift in flows as the Euro session closes. FOMC announcement at 2PM. WHAT IS 0DTE TRADING? 0dte or zero days to expiration refer to the last trading day for an option contract. The Chicago Board Options Exchange ( Cboe ) lists weekly options on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) with expirations every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. Since most options expire worthless we take advantage of this by selling credit spreads to collect premium. Our option trading strategy allows us to profit if the market moves up, down or doesn't move at all. ✅ Consistent Cash Flow ✅ High Probability of Profit ✅ No Overnight Risk
SP:SPX
by 0dteTraders
$EEM naked PUT, high PoP #option #trade #Trades #OptionsTrading The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is a good choice for today high IVR credit trade. High PoP, very predictable profit. Reasons: - high reward for Jan21 monthly expiry (mangeable with rolling) -> collecting credit - breakeven point is far - RSI is oversold. Max profit: $92 Probability of 50%Profit: 84% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 14% Req. Buy Power: $633 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 104 (very high) Expiry: 49 days SETUP : NAKED PUT for $EEM, because IVR is high, for 0.92cr * Sell 1 $EEM JAN21'46 PUT Management : ROLLING if daily candle is closing below of BE. Take profit strategy : 50% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 0.46db Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
AMEX:EEMLong
by TanukiTrade