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Options-strategy

JWN Bullish inclined Naked Calls 20 May Expiry (May Track 3)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought I had filled my Macy’s trade first but as I was looking at the charts I realised that it was possible for me to create some sort of a hedge with JWN and M (one being Puts, the other Calls). JWN similar to Macy’s has strong S&R lines at 30, 26 and 24.19 As I believe we are in the ranging situation. I expect the price to drop or go up but be contained within the S&R lines at least for the short term I Feel I’m entering this reflection post and 2 days after filling this trade, Fed Powell announces the rate hikes and the price drops by 5.25%. Not surprising, but I didn’t expected this drop to happen so quickly. I figured this would happen closer to May. I’m still confident of this trade plan Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side This is possible also as it is aligned with the range movement I expect and there is an S&R line at 30.20 Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer This trade as a hedge with the Macy’s trade makes good sense and the strong S&R lines below at 26 and 24.19 gives good resistance Look For New Information Before trade entry Nordstrom generally has positive news with it rising 27% How Do I Feel Now I feel ok, with the current situation but will have to monitor how the first S&R line holds Trade Specs Sold 340 Puts @ 0.22 - Strike 22.5 % to Strike 29% ATR 22% BP used 75k Max Gain: 7534.4
NYSE:JWN
by Ronin_trader
M Bearish inclined naked calls 13 May expiry (May Track 2)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought The Departmental Store sector was not one of my original shortlist. But I also do think my current method of shortlisting from the median of the monthly performance (both negative and positive), might not be the best. Even if the price performance meets my expectations on what I should be trading in a volatile ranging market. Earning season did not help as part of my strategy is to stay away from earnings which are unpredictable With nothing to show for my May shortlist. I was exploring my past trades and found that the Departmental Store sector had good prices and WAS close to how I wanted the price movement to be (within a range). Macy’s had strong S&R lines at 28.54 and 22.97 and had lower high points I sold calls on this as I expect it to range between the S&R points with a bearish inclination I Feel I felt good about this trade, confident as it met my expectations and what I was looking for. Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side With the lower highs I would be worried. Also i expect some bearish movement from the Fed announcements early May We do know that while the overall consumer sentiment has been bearish, consumer spending is up and rising. This could drive some upside Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer Given that we feel that it is a Ranging market with Strong S&R lines. I think both could be right but with interest rate increases the probabilities are more bearish Look For New Information No new information that I could find on Macy’s How Do I Feel Now Post entering the trade, I feel good especially since prices have drop with Fed Powell’s announcement on the half-point hike. I was expecting this price drop to happen in May and not this week as the half-point hike is not a surprise and has been reported before Trade Specs Sold 290 Calls @0.26 - Strike 31 % to Strike is 15% ATR is 1% BP used 75k Max Gain: 7540
NYSE:MShort
by Ronin_trader
AAL Bullish inclined naked puts 20 May expiry (May Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought My original intention was to leverage the volatility from the rate increases to enter VXX. However the BP (Buying Power) requirements were pretty high. Making IT less attractive in risk and reward The airlines sector are seeing signs or recovery with surges over pre-pandemic level in March. United Airlines (21 April) have forecasted a profit this year. Looking at the Airline stocks with similar prices movements. I decided to sell puts with AAL as I expected traders to jump into this sector with obvious recovery elements. Especially since Tech companies have been victim number 1 with the rising interest rates. I also saw markets rising after Powell’s address and I figured the volatility was all done. Boy was I wrong haha I Feel I’m entering this post entering the trade. Hence my views now are slightly impacted with what has transpired on Thursday and Friday. I feel I have made the right decision based on the information I had. However Given that my overall stance was that it was a bearish sideways market. 2/3 of my trades should not be bullish. I am not good at predicting the market, so I must be aware of the probabilities across all my trades and not just each individual trade In my reflection, how I could have also structured this is, riskier trades should be tied to closer expiry dates Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side Right now post entry, post 5,6 May blood bath. It must feel pretty sweet Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer In all states (Bullish, Bearish and Neutral). We all agree that the market is ranging and is highly volatile. As such the trade currently is not moving entirely unexpectedly. I think was was unexpected was the Bullish market wide move, followed by two red days Look For New Information Current bearish price action is a market wide drop. There could be recovery or it could continue dropping. We have some allowance, but it’s getting tighter How Do I Feel Now A little worried about Monday, but I know this trade individually is made of sound decision elements. However as part of an overall monthly trade structure, this new trade weakens it Trade Specs Sold 350 Puts @ 0.13 - Strike 15.5 % to Strike is 17.5% ATR IS 5% BP used 54k Max Gain: 4322.5
NASDAQ:AALLong
by Ronin_trader
EUR/USD 20 year low what happens with Peace?EUR/USD has taken the brunt of the USD strength since the Ukraine War and Russian sanctions soured the economic outlook of the Eurozone. What happens with peace? Well obviously we rally but the argument is that with the ECB acting as well we will not just bounce but fly back above EUR/USD 1.10. Now timing this potential outcome is the issue and we could rally organically from 20 year lows if the USD weakens as well. FX Options are a solution and on our easyMarkets Options are made accesible for everyone. 3 month EUR/USD is currently 240 pips so we have a long time for peace with a maximum loss of 240pips. For more information on Options, Professional traders will get a 1-1 tutorial from a FX options Dealer.
Long
by easyMarkets
AAPL LONG - Trade Idea$AAPL Would be foolish of me to not include this on the watchlist as the 150C is on everyone and their mothers radar. The flow in 150C is beautiful and if there is any dip come monday market open this will be one of the first contracts I enter. 5/20 150C on AAPL. If we dip further I will scale further into the position. Unless we break previous LOD at 143 does not make sense for me to cut, but I see it as better priced contracts I will DCA into. Great week to make some very good money with a SL of a break below 143. Play next week contracts and your risking a max of -50-60% value to make 100% plus on a break-over 150 overnight swing as IV flows into your premiums. R/R is vital to understand to be successful in a volatile market.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Peak_Capital_Trades
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May QQQ Iron CondorQQQ 9 - 13 May The weekly VXN-> Volatility Index for S&P 100 index / Nasdaq Implied = 37.4 In this we have to standard it for weekly session 37.4 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 5.19% My historical product is telling me with 1.5x coficient that the expected movement for this week E Volatility = 38.02 / sqrt(52) = 5.27% With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 86.6% chance that the market stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol So for next week this range for us is going to be TOP - 325.5 BOT - 293 Lets look into an iron condor oppotunity for trading: 325Call Sell - 328Call Buy 293Put sell - 290 Put buy This is giving us at the current moment a 0.35 expectancy So taking into account from 1109 weekly candles, that 86.6% of the times the market stay within our top/bot channel, Our profit margin would be 86.4% * 0.35 - 13.6%*1 = 16.9ROI after 100 trades
NASDAQ:QQQ
by exlux
VRM another 20.5K Calls in the Options Chain !!After a block o 35K calls on April 21, today VRM has another 20.5K calls expiring on the same date, May 20, same strike price, $2.5. They paid a premium of over $200K for the calls. The chart is full of bullish divergences and the stock is undervalued. I think the earnings (in 4 days) will deliver a surprise and the stock will bounce to $3! The stock is now $1.42, a rare buy opportunity in my opinion! Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:VRMLong
by TopgOptions
11
Short and Long Iron Condor SPX 05 May 2022We can estimate with a 84% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 1.65% For this the market will stay within TOP 4371 BOT 4230 At the same time We can estimate with a 86% confidence that the volatility for today is going move more than 0.4% based on the last 5658 Daily candles. For this the market will stay above the TOP 4306 BOT 4272 From the fundamental point of view, yesterday we had the release of the interest rates, so I believe currently we are in a short relief moment, where we can have for some days/weeks a small bull trend For today we have no big volatility news, so we cant expect big surprises. From volume point, we can see that the point of concentration is around 4300-4285 Having said that we have 2 different ways of trading for today IRON CONDOR for the first option, with the 4370sell 4400buy Call / 4230sell 4200buy Put Reverse IRON CONDOR for the second option wiht 4305buy 4330sell Call/ 4275buy 4250sell PUT
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux