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JWN Bearish inclined Naked Calls 11 Mar Expiry (Mar Track 2)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought I identified this trade by looking at Finviz Groups and shortlisted the mid volatility Industry players (1 Month bull, 2 - 1 Week bearish). This was because I wanted to be trading in industries with less volatile price movements. Previously for the past 4 months I have been trading in industries at the forefront of any movement. Travel, Banks, VXX JWN is part of the department store industry and has seen a huge dip (20%) on the 24 Nov due to lacklustre results. While I don’t expect any huge dips in the near future, I also don’t expect huge bullish jumps especially with the current climate The other department store counters I explored were M and KSS. I liked KSS’s price movement also as it already spiked on the 24 Jan due acquisition news. M did not provide a good price for options contracts I Feel I felt good for this trade and tactic as I have adjusted by trade selection and strike prices towards a volatile market bearish ranging market. This means I will take extra far strikes, even through it means sacrificing some alpha Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side I would feel afraid given all the negative news on Ukraine and Inflation. I do not think I would take this trade on the opposite side at all. Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer While there is confidence in selling calls, there is also the earnings release on the 1 Mar. But given the entire market I think this is a safe bet. There is enough room for the price to rise (33% from strike) and it expires on the 11 March just before the release of the Interest rate increase (Week 14 Mar). Look For New Information I am clearly rejecting the risk of earnings and if I am wrong in this trade. This would probably be the reason. How Do I Feel Now I feel confident since was planning it and since I entered. This is a good trade and if it goes south it would either be because of me ignoring Earnings or just how the world turns. Trade Specs Sold 270 Calls @ 0.33 - Strike 27 % to Strike is 33% ATR is 55% BP used is 55k
NYSE:JWNShort
by Ronin_trader
2
XRT Bullish inclined Naked Puts 26 Nov Expiry (Nov Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought Bullish Stance XRT are retail discretionary companies and right now there seems to be alot of optimism. Consumers seem to be find paying for the current rising prices of products. I think will continue with the festive period Sep Consumer Spending has lost momentum but still grew at 1.4% Sep Personal income was up 0.9% Current price has broken a key S&R line at 98. My targetted Stike is 86.5 and is below another S&R line 89. Price to strike is around 14% seems decent especially since the current price movement is very bullish I Feel Feel ready to trade, slightly impatient cause I want to lock this in Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side Inflation related concerns might hit anything consumer fronting hard and with the 4 Dec review on the Debt ceiling there might be some concerns and media coverage as we get closer Bit concern as I was expending to trade in a sideways bearish volatile movement. But the past 2 weeks have made the market very clearly bullish. Trading my original plan seems almost contrarian Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer There is optimism in this trade, however the long cancel on the 3 Nov seems unnaturally long. This means it might gap back into the range But the bullish momentum matches the current market sentiment and if we are being pure in trading what is in front of us and not making predictions. This is the right decision Look For New Information Top 9 out of the top 10 holdings are all up with AEO the highest at 6.26% (American Eagle Outfitters) How Do I Feel Now I think this and my VXX trade is very aligned and while it opposes my early market reading - Sideway Bearish Volatile. Purely trading what is in front of me is a clearly Strong Bullish Trade Specs Sold 0.38, 70 Put Contracts @ Strike 86.5 % to Strike 14% ATR % is around 50% BP used 60k Max Gain: est $2660
AMEX:XRTLong
by Ronin_trader
2
OIH Monthly Candle Breakout11 month accumulation with a large range expansion away from the mode. My strategy to trade this was jan 2023 $285 calls for the lower premium. ATM calls are also a good strategy at a significantly higher premium so it depends on your portfolio size and the position size you're aiming for. For options I choose to never exceed 5% portfolio size per trade and I set my stop at a 50% loss (for actual stocks I don't use this rule, just options). You can trade a smaller position size but I wouldn't recommend going above 5% of your total portfolio. Even with far OTM calls, I'm already at about 13% profit since there's been some nice movement since I originally charted this 3 weeks ago. At around 20% profit I will likely adjust my stop to around 10% profit and then trail.
AMEX:OIHLong
by Trade_Integrity
Trade idea on Walmart - WMTJust as an idea: Cash secured put on Walmart, with a strike price of $134 (delta 23) and an expiry of Feb. 18, 2022. Trade would to be closed on Feb. 16, 2022, 1 day before the quarterly results, which will be published on Feb. 17, 2022, before market opening. The $134-$135 area has successfully acted as support four times over 1 year. Whether it will do it another time is of course uncertain! The additional purchase of the cheaper put with strike price 115$ reduces the margin and creates a bull put spread. This trade idea is one of the 222 trade ideas from my book "The Stock Market Year 2022: Which stocks go up and when?" Disclaimer: This trade idea is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities or financial instruments. Investment in securities and financial instruments (especially options) are generally associated with risks, up to total loss of the invested capital and above. I am not a financial advisor. Please do your own research and make your own decisions.
NYSE:WMT
by Optionopedia
Will the FED be able to control inflation? Spy outlookSp500 ended the day continuing to form a bear flag. We are still in a bearish market. I am short term bearish, short term bullish and long term bearish First let me explain why I'm bearish next week then bullish. There are a few reasons why i think the market will drop to around 3829.75 - 4016.75 The moving averages are color coded Blue - Daily 200 MA Purple - weekly 50 MA Orange - Weekly 100 MA Green - Weekly 200 MA 1st - on April 5th 2021, where the red rectangle is, there is a small gap we are probably going to fill before heading up 2nd - the trendline starting from February 5th 2018 is well respected. I see a bounce off the top of the trendline next week 3rd - the Daily 200 MA was rejected and found support at the weekly 50 MA. Bulls fought hard but support looks relatively weak. 4th - global events are spooking the market. Inflation/fed and rate hikes starting in March, tension between Ukraine and Russia. Overall market doesn't look good. After the drop I expect a relief rally before the real drop comes. A drop from the highs down to the bottom trendline is around 60% 1 year from now. 2007 drop was around 54%. Previous corrections were around 30 to 50 % This correction I'm expecting a bigger drop because of how overvalued the market is. My trade plan: buy Feb 21st and 28th calls and start building a long position when price gets to 4010 and shows confirmation of a reversal or bounce off the main trendline. If we drop more to 3829.75 I would load up heavy on calls. HOLD CALLS SHORT TERM ... I would sell and slowly build my put position as price hits the .382 .5 and .618 retracement level of the high to low swing from ATH. Watch the .782 level as a close above this level on the daily chart will invalidate this idea.. I would put a stop loss above the .782 retracement If you like my ideas make sure to like and follow!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by moneysignSean
1
Nifty still in a downtrend butMy Analysis of Nifty Looking at the Open interest data 18000 has a very strong resistance with very new call writers at 18000, 18050, 18100,18200, 18300 levels. PCR is 0.5 suggesting that its oversold Max Pain at 18000 Support shown at 17923(100 day moving average on hourly charts) PCR and support suggest that the market might open in the green tomorrow, however, trend continues to be downtrend so data suggests it may remain remain flat tomorrow, upside seems very difficult. Also, FII were net sellers with -2704.77 crores and DII were also net sellers: -195.07 which suggests weakness Will be looking for opportunities to Sell calls on uptick. Short with caution I do expect the closing to be around 17900-18050 Disclaimer: Please trade based on your own analysis and protect your capital
NSE:NIFTYShort
by amitach
$BABA high P/L debit spread +170% TP with options #baba #alibabaAlibaba suffered the past one year. My last trade was an $BABA Iron Condor, closed in profit: Now it's time to play for some bullish bounce. Reasons: * Bullish volume, +10% in one day. * Oversold smooth RSI * Reasonable setup before event * Bullish action candle Max profit: $1100 Probability for 50% of Profit: 50% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 170% Req. Buy Power: $396 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 45 (average implied volatility rank) Expiry: 15 days Buy 3 BABA Jan14' 130 Call Sell 3 BABA Jan14' 135 Call Summary, 3 debit call spreads for 1.32db each. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the red line, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~$250. Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 3.75cr for each position OR reaching the profit target level ($135 price lvl) - whichever occurs first. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NYSE:BABALong
by TanukiTrade
1