#M Cup & Handle incomingGoing through my morning charting on trading view and i remember seeing #M on unusual whales pop up frequently and i glanced at the chart almost moved on to the next play and literally did a double look, but a cup is fully formed perfect on the one year one day and one year one week chart as you see in the image. It will be interesting to see if we can put a couple red days together this week to form the handle will be putting in some trades for mid Dec. to help myself with the Theta and to see if this comes to fruition it will be cheaper to pick up contracts on pull back days either way. Also their ecommerce business is also coming along form what i had read recently in either case this def makes for a play to go in your watch list, Fed is also supposed to make an announcement today which when that normally happens we have VERY RED days so i guess as they say the STARS ARE ALIGNING lol.
Options-strategy
UPST - has had an incredible runUPST has had quite the year producing those that took a chance on it some outstanding returns due to the fact it not only asses risk but can also manage returns with it's AI software which has led to some incredible earnings report from the GATE which does not make sense when you look at the price action why the price would fall so much, i am very bullish on this play long term as i see Ai being the future of just about everything i also made a video breakdown the company it's software and some of the price targets smart money has for them
INTC - Possible Good Entry PointI recently made a video on #INTC as when looking at the chart showed very good patterns, 1 being every NOV -DEC has a consolidation period followed by a nice run usually ending in MARCH - APRIL with only one exception to that 2020 ( covid dip ) over the last 5 years, this year it has once again shown a consolidation period or dip in the price action actually getting very close to approaching a strong trend line which as acted as a support going as far back as 2013 in the chart with only 2 false breaks but for the most part holding up great. I will be looking to see if it does get closer to approaching that support line to enter a position with shares and options for MAR APR MAY expiration as that has also shown to repeat in the charts as being the point where the price starts to dip once again.
DHI Descending Channel Break for Long EntryDescription
DHI has been working this descending channel since hitting an ATH in May of this year, and off the earnings we may be seeing a break out.
A close > 94 triggers a long.
Using a call debit spread, because profits are always limited by time.
Will look to enter at EOD.
Call Debit Spread
Tentative Levels on Chart
SL is a daily close back in the channel.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
12/3 95C
SELL
12/3 105C
R/R & Break-evens vary on fill.
The long call is placed ITM due to limited strikes but also offers good downside protection.
The short call is placed at the ATH. If DHI runs to ATH and holds, I'll look to roll the spread up.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
ATVI Bearish inclined Naked Calls 29 Oct Expiry (Oct Track 1)I just realised I forgot to enter this trade. My thoughts below was written 28 Sep
Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
Forced, Because I need to hit the 5% target
I don't have much options, this feels risky. I need to spend time coming up with proper ideas.
I feel lazy and that I need to be serious since I am doing this full time
ATVI looking at it as it is going down. There is a recent pull back but it is still bearish.
ATVI has been moving the opposite of the Index or the VXX. It was also impacted by Evergrande's drop. But only recovered slightly with the market bounced
If anything I see ATVI ranging near term
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
Do I need this trade? Since you feel it is forced and that you did not put in effort
What if it rebounds up? Their last earnings was higher than the estimates
Christmas is coming, this can boast interest in the stock
Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer
The Other Side, also feels convinced that ATVI is bearish
The key issue feels like no prep was done and it is a forced trade. I am not being professional
Other Competitors in this space like EA have similar down trends (Feels like a sector drop)
Look For New Information
Recently ATVI has negative news on the workplace culture and discrimination
How Do I Feel Now
This is not a company that will fail entirely near term due to it's strong gaming titles that has a strong following.
This is probably the last time I can/should trade this bearish move
Trade Specs
Sold 80 CALLS @ 0.50 Strike 84
% to Strike is 8.9%
ATR % is slightly on the high side at 60%
Max Gain: est $4000
ATH next move?Massive run on this name,
ER tomorrow, so not sure what is going to come out of this.
However, nice flag above 89.00 should trigger a new run to ATH
Contracting IVR and Channel formation The start of September IVR picked up and we can see a series of red candles within that same time range. Now as IVR settles back down to its stable range then there should be less dramatic movement in the stock price.
Should price continue within the current range then being able to play with price between the two values would be a manageable trade with appropriate trade execution.
BABA descending channel - Jan 1 thoughtslooking at Fib retracement along the channel trying to gauge a reasonable scenario.
A $130 target for Jan 1 is well within the existing data trend. Looking at options for early Feb in that range.
One caveat is that our last two months are typically big for online retailers, which may buoy BABA a bit.
$ABNB will be $181.00 by Dec 2nd -Fib flag formation So I did two fib growth pitchforks..
—one mod schiff Bearish and one original recipe bullish, and that’s an obvious flag formation, double major resistance at $180 to $182
If I was a betting man I would bet a debit call spread with the short call 60+ days out 12/15/21 on the top end w a $190 strike..
-and a slightly out of the money call January 2022 at $175 strike.. Cha Ching!
UPS Long: Option PlayBroke ATH, good entry on close over 217.5.
Using A call debit spread, because profits are always limited by time.
Call Debit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL < 217.5
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/12 220C
SELL
11/12 235C
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
The long call is placed ATM for higher chance of profit,
The short call is placed 3 standard deviations away.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
EverlongI'm always bullish on SPY. It's an ETF designed to always gain value.
Knowing this information I like to play strategies that involve exploiting dips. Currently on the 1HR chart we're seeing that it might break the downward pattern.
It is visually represented by the green ascending cloud and then a red cloud on the dip. The VIX is a little higher this morning but ideally I like it over 23 to Sell Credit Spreads.
If the market is neutral I might do a Calendar Spread. If it dips I buy the Sold Call back for a profit and then keep the LEAP until profit target is reached.
Godspeed Traders!
Nasdaq, 28 SEP - Elliott waves | Gann | Planetary Aspects $QQQAs expected a wave C is currently unfolding which gave us a nice profit.
Price approaches the 14766 Gann level so that we may look for potential (temporary) support. Wave C is still short but since we have a lower low, it fulfils the criteria for completion, and we can look to reduce exposure to be on the safe side. It is also possible to count 5 waves down (green count), however this count can extend if wave C continues to progress.
Should Nasdaq drop further, the next levels of support might be:
- 14524 Gann level & wave A-C equality
- Gann level 14284
- Gann level 14046 & 1.618 Fib extension of wave A.
Implied Volatility is high after today’s sharp drop. Selling option premium with wide strikes can be profitable should the decline slow down from here.
Correlations: DXY stalled today in a potential resistance zone. If USD cools off it will help the yield-sensitive tech sector to find temporary support zones.
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In my analyses I combine Elliott waves, Gann theory, and planetary aspects to identify turning points in the markets & derive high-probability trading ideas. The strategy is to build leveraged exposure when markets are likely to expand, and to use options premium decay for consistent income when markets may contract and range.
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These abbreviations in the chart are ideas provided as educational information and do not constitute financial advice:
STO = sell to open
BTC = buy to close
BTO = buy to open
STC = sell to close
Disclaimer:
The views and ideas expressed in this analysis are that of the maker. They are provided as educational information and do not constitute financial or trading advice.
$NKE Looking oversoldI like the idea of the 145/140P credit spread here. $1.45 credit for the 11/19 opex
30-45 days or more until expiration would capture the most premium vs. theta decay (sweet spot per Tasty Trades).
You could go long naked : ) higher risk idea . I don't have conviction on how high and quickly Nike will rebound so I like the spread trade idea here