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Options-strategy

ZM hits roofIn this chart we see a short term, broadening pattern called the megaphone. I have found that this pattern is usually accurate in predicting breakouts/ price movements. As shown in this hourly chart, ZM has been run along the top trend line , briefly crossed above, and is now headed back to support. If I were looking for a short term trade I would wait to see if the price is going to break the black line (today’s low and also a price level that saw some price support recently), at the 457 area. If it breaks below, I would take out a short term call with my first target being the second-from-the-bottom black line, the 449 area, and the next is in the 442 area. If i believed I had a high tolerance for unrealized losses, I would set a stop loss far below my buying price (up to 40 percent of buying price for options.) on the other hand, if I had a very small tolerance or unrealized losses, I would set my stop loss at about 5 percent below my buying price, enough to maybe see a profit but not enough to where a short term sell off would force me to sell prematurely. Feel free to leave comments and questions.
NASDAQ:ZMShort
by Isaiahgr3
4
Why I booked profit on my shorts today?Context : As I explained in my post earlier, I expected strong selling in the zone 11380-11630. Remember this zone is where the shock moves started happening in February 2020. I actually did not trade much in the zone, but I started shorting around the upper range of the zone - around 11600. About Trade : I have been positional short from Sept 13, I bought Oct 29 PUTs to give me more time. But NIFTY moved in the anticipated direction. When I am sitting on profit, it is important to protect my profits. But also I should be careful of not being fearful . I did the following adjustments 1) I covered more than half of my position. 2) Remaining position I rolled below 200 points. I also hedged the same by selling even lower strike PUT of near expiry. All this ensured, I have taken profits. And then I am also in the trade. Downside is I won't be making large money if NIFTY continues to sell off in the next 2-3 days. Why did I booked some profit? 1) NIFTY made a very symmetrical move to the initial move, and many times, that makes traders to cover the positions. This means less momentum on downside. 2) There was a large 0.6%+ hourly bar at important support level - 11040. This also can be seen as a hammer in the 2hr chart. 3) Tomorrow is expiry. And because we had a large range month, it is not unnatural to have some confusing counter moves. It is better to step aside and just watch. References: Sep 13 Short Sep 3 Short Aug 28 Short
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
IRON TARIHi guys, this is a new iron condor to set, 4 weeks with 10% strike So our short legs are @ 256 and @ 313 We have 80% probability of success, so a rew/risk 100-80/80= 20/80 = 0.25 Depending on the size you can trade, and the spread of the 2 verticals, we can reach a Rew/risk of about 0.37, that is 50% more than 0.25. The preminum is not that much, but we have a very high succesfull rate at our side, plus we can always roll on leg is the things go bad to lower our risk. Using a wider spread the odds increase more, because there is more room for the price to move before to reach the maximum loss, even if in this case we can always close the leg before expiration, to lower the loss. Enjoy your wallet! Tari.
NYSE:HD
by TARITRADE
JETS ETF bearish inclined naked calls - 16 Oct expiryOnce again I'm re-entering a JETS options trade given the low volatility. The industry still weak and I don't think we will see much upwards movement in the next month. 1 Sep when a majority of stock spiked upwards. JETS had minimal movement. As such I sold calls at the high of a key price resistance point. The current RSI is at a high band of 66. I did not cover this options trade as I realised my covered options did not protect when volatility increased and the strike got closer. I'm coming up with ways that I can better hedge against volatility but for now, I am relying on basic TA and historical low price movements Sold 80 Calls @ 0.25, Strike 22 BP block: 15k Max gain - est $1958.05
AMEX:JETS
by Ronin_trader
2
Marriott bullish inclined defensive options - 18 Sep ExpiryRolling on my previous MAR trade that expired on the 28 Aug. I decided to continue with MAR as price on the 25 Aug seemed to be having trouble rising. RSI was also at a high band of 65. Overall, price seemed to be pretty predictable and not volatile at this point. As my defensive trade is focused on picking off premium. I do not expect price to rise and as such, I structured a bullish inclined trade with a Max gain at strike 109.96 ($1677) and breakeven at 111.27. Hoping that my contracts can just expiry worthless. If price ranges or goes bearish I will collect est. $1079 Sold 14 Calls @ 0.93, Strike 110 Bought 1 Call @ 2.13 Strike 104 BP block: 13k
NASDAQ:MAR
by Ronin_trader
CHWY Defensive Bullish inclined - 18 Sep ExpiryCHWY is an online retailer of pet food. Since the start of the year is has generally been on a bullish uptrend. I picked CHWY as it's price movement seems pretty predictable and not very volatile. Price has recently hit a nice high 52 week high and now seems to be in a range and testing that key 52 week high price point. I feel that there is a higher probability of it moving downwards, especially with it's RSI leaning towards the higher band of 60. As my defensive trade is focused on picking off premium. As such I have made it bullish inclined with a Max gain at strike 70 and breakeven at 71.23. So the scenario I aim for is a bearish price that so that my contracts can just expiry worthless. I'm worried as Tradingview has pegged earnings at 21 Sep, but other sources has it at 8 Sep/15 Sep. I only realised this after the trade was entered and TOS showed a different earnings date. Defensive Profit $1333 Bought 18 Sep @ Strike 60 Calls +1, $2.7 Sold 18 Sep @ Strick 70 Calls -20, $0.81 BP block: 12k
NYSE:CHWYLong
by Ronin_trader
JETS ETF - Protected Bearish Inclination 18 Sep expiry There seems to be a resurgence of COVID-19 cases across the globe. Before Sep 18 I doubt there would be positive news for the travel industry, especially in the US. As price broke the support line, technically theres a chance it will continue dropping. Positive news on the stimulus won't help travel and I do not expect an influx of investors into the travel industry as it is one of the weakest sectors and money would probably flow first into something more solid like tech or at least the S&P 500. This is a protected trade. If price goes bearish, I have a chance to hit my max gain of est. $3222 but I must close the contract before it drops too much my way otherwise I will start losing. If prices don't go my way (goes bulls up) or ranges I will collect est. $1250 Would prefer this to be a 4 weeks contract, but 18 Sep (8 Weeks) had a better price for my trade structure Sold 80 Puts @ 0.26, Strike 12 Bought 10 Puts @ 0.73 Strike 14 BP block: 10k Max gain - est $3222 Planned Minimum gain - est $1250
AMEX:JETSShort
by Ronin_trader
Why I am planning to by PUT Options on NIFTYContext : August 31 was a the day when NIFTY broke it's normal routine of moving up slowly, which started in June. It also followed up by another leg of down move on Sep 4. I was able to play both these moves because of sound strategies. And Now with these two successful attempts, I completely understand , shorting again may not be a good idea. **** THIS IS HIGH RISK TRADE. PLEASE DO NOT FOLLOW> JUST SHARING FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSE **** the question arises, what is next? Are we done with correction or this time, something has changed? Nobody knows the answer. But as a trader, it is my job to create a logical viewpoint and design a trade which rewards me if NIFTY indeed goes in the way I imagined. For creating this view, I can dig deeper in the recent corrections and see if there is anything I can build upon from the data. Now I do not know if the current correction is over, but since 9 days have passed, I am willing to study the current move as well. Study of corrections so far ==================================================================== Correction 1 (June 8 - 12) Upswing Days : 8 (6G + 2R) Upswing Chg : 14.71% Upswing Angle : 68 --------------------------------------------- Correction onset : High Trap Correction Days : 4 (1G + 3R) Correction Chg : 7.59% Correction Angle : -71 Correction end : Large Candle + News --------------------------------------------- VIX Jump ~ 17% % Stocks above 20 SMA (Chg) ~ -3% (90.51%) No. of days to regain the top - 7 Note : No deeper close below 15 day EMA Sharp surprise emerged at climax low ***************************************************************** Correction 2 (June 24 - 29) Upswing Days : 8 (5G + 3R) Upswing Chg : 10.57% Upswing Angle : 62 --------------------------------------------- Correction onset : High Engulfing Correction Days : 4 (3G + 1R) Correction Chg : 3.12% Correction Angle : -59 Correction end : Indecision + Spring --------------------------------------------- VIX Jump ~ -2.25% % Stocks above 20 SMA (Chg) ~ -12.6% (75.36%) No. of days to regain the top - 3 Note : Stayed above 15 day EMA ******************************************************************* Correction 3 (July 13 - 16) Upswing Days : 10 (7G + 3R) Upswing Chg : 6.56% Upswing Angle : 44 --------------------------------------------- Correction onset : False Breakout Correction Days : 4 (1G + 3R) Correction Chg : 2.79% Correction Angle : -60 Correction end : Hammer --------------------------------------------- VIX Jump ~ 0% % Stocks above 20 SMA (Chg) ~ -16.49% (35.84%) No. of days to regain the top - 2 Note : Just touched 15 day EMA, did not close ******************************************************************* Correction 4 (July 29 - August 3) Upswing Days : 9 (7G + 2R) Upswing Chg : 6.97% Upswing Angle : 54 --------------------------------------------- Correction onset : Silent, No pattern Correction Days : 4 (4R) Correction Chg : 4% Correction Angle : -69 Correction end : Climax Exhaustion --------------------------------------------- VIX Jump ~ 4.4% % Stocks above 20 SMA (Chg) ~ -2.2% (36.1%) No. of days to regain the top - 6 Note : Closed below 15 day EMA, strong negative close. ******************************************************************* Correction 5 (August 11 - 14) Upswing Days : 5 (4G + 1R) Upswing Chg : 4.32% Upswing Angle : 53 --------------------------------------------- Correction onset : Dragonfly doji Top Correction Days : 4 (2R + 2G) Correction Chg : 4% Correction Angle : -55 Correction end : Climax Exhaustion --------------------------------------------- VIX Jump ~ 0% % Stocks above 20 SMA (Chg) ~ -2.5% (71.69%) No. of days to regain the top - 2 Note : Just touched 15 day EMA, did not close ******************************************************************* Correction 6 (Or Trend Change) (August 31 - ?) Upswing Days : 10 (8G + 2R) Upswing Chg : 5.83% Upswing Angle : 47 --------------------------------------------- Correction onset : Large Bearish Engulfing Correction Days : 8 (5R + 3G) ... Correction Chg : 5.19% ... Correction Angle : -59 ... Correction end : Gap Reversal (?) --------------------------------------------- VIX Jump ~ 25% % Stocks above 20 SMA (Chg) ~ -25.65% (27.66%) No. of days to regain the top - 9 days has not regained the top Note : Stayed below 15 day EMA for 4 candles. ******************************************************************* My observations about current correction ----------------------------------------- 1) Current downmove has made the NIFTY participants fearful. VIX jumped 25% during the period. 2) So far 9 days have passed and NIFTY has not been able to reclaim the 11800 level. 3) Market breadth has weakened considerably. There are only 27% stocks above 20 SMA 4) NIFTY broke 15 day EMA and stayed below it for some time, which none of previous corrections did. My view ------- 1) All these observations mean, the buyers are not enthusiastic here to aggressively buy. 2) Buyers are fearful and only betting on few names (27% of the stocks) 3) If buyers are waiting for lower prices, NIFTY will drift down under selling pressure. 4) For now, intention to sell is also not very clear. 11800 and 11600 levels , there was selling, but it is not confirmed. 5) Sellers are scared that NIFTY may again move up and then buying will accelerate. They are comfortable selling once previous point is taken out. Possibilities ------------ 1) For now, I assume the possibility of NIFTY breaking down further , how much - lets assume 10%, that is the healthy correction even in bull market. That is roughly 10600-10700 level 2) Will NIFTY go and touch 11800 in between, yes may be. But for building my view, I assume it wont cross 11800 convincingly. 3) This move can be sharp or can form complex top - distribution pattern. How to trade this? ------------------ 1) I'll buy a October 29 11000 PUT , preferably when NIFTY is around 11400 - 11500. Current price for this is 162 rs 2) Anytime, this goes to 400 Rs or closed, I'll close the trade or hedge it to secure profits. (NIFTY 10700-10600 on SPOT) 3) My stop loss is NIFTY closing above 11900 for 2-3 days. How I can further reduce my risk? --------------------------------- 1) Since I am buying the PUT , I can offset some of its cost by selling 10600/10700 PUT every week. But this is potentially restricting move, so need to be executed only when strong buying is seen on lower time frames. How much loss I can see? ------------------------- If NIFTY hits stop loss by Sept 30, PUT will be around 40 rs ~ that is 9000 rs loss per lot.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
4
FB Buy Zone(s) IdentifiedPlaying around with some technical analysis tonight.. I found a found a pretty decent buy zone for FB. In the video I explain how I identified it.. I also go into a little bit of detail about how I chose the the option contract I'd like to play. I hope you enjoy! Sorry if it's a bit awkward, it's my first video upload.. More to come, I hope! Have a good one, everybody. Please reach out with criticism or questions! I'm happy to engage with any trader.
NASDAQ:META
by DonjonCapital
Options Idea: Sell The JD Oct 16 2020 62.5 Put @ $1.03JD has been in an ascending parallel channel since the COVID-19 peak in March and shows no sign of slowing down. I sold an October 16 2020 62.5 Put @ 1.03 near the bottom of the channel today with the idea that the uptrend will continue over the next couple months. This is one of China's biggest e-retailers and its been having a great time with extra sales due to the pandemic. Don't see any reason why that should stop anytime soon. An alternative idea for a more aggressive trade would be to sell the $70 Put for a much larger credit. The $70 Put will be just below the bottom of the channel on the Oct 16 expiration. 20-JD-01 Opening Date: August 20, 2020 Expiration Date: October 16, 2020 DTE: 57 IV: 44% IV Percentile: 36% Odds of Winning: 80% Win: > 61.47 @ Expiration Loss: < 61.47 @ Expiration Reg-T Margin @ Open: $720 Chart Legend The green area represents 100% win zone. The yellow area is a win, but we have to give back some of the initial credit taken in. The red area is loss. 1 SD, 2 SD, 3 SD projections from Opening Date to Expiration Date are included.
NASDAQ:JDLong
by OptionsCoach
2
PTON Bullish and bearish flow before earningsBacktested the breakout point ($72.1) on Sep 4 or pivot point and held the 20 SMA. Earnings whisper is expecting .13c EPS and $560 mill revenue. Previous Q was $524 Mill, which was a beat. Bullish option flow bought Sep 2 - Over 4000 Sep 11 $120 calls bought and 2900 $110 calls (These would be all down). Bearish flow - On sep 1, Oct/ Jan 2021 call spread $80 bought sold the $85's. Sep 4, the Apr 2021 $90 calls were sold. I would play the run up into ER, then sell.
NASDAQ:PTON
by hockeysniper
2