Options
BIG move ahead in banknifty.Banknifty had been spending last 7 days in a narrow range . we had seen some selling pressure but bulls were able to hold the important level of banknifty.
if banknifty closes above 38200 in daily time frame we can hold CE positions in long side for the entire week.
and if breaks down the 37360 level in the daily time frame we can see a down side move.
BTC1! (Bitcoin Futures) - Bullish Double Bottom at Support - 4HRBTC1! (Bitcoin CME Futures) has double-bottomed above $39,500 trendline support (4-hour chart).
If support prices hold, Bitcoin could rally over time to resistance prices above.
Entry (long): $40,165
Profit Target +7% (exit): $42,915
Stop Loss -3.5% (exit): $38,640
Utilize stop loss, position sizing, risk management.
Note: Crypto market has short-term correlations with the USA stock market & tech stocks. Support prices need to hold strong, and bullish continuation is needed to sustain a bull rally.
All content is Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Oil shift to downtrend? Options and AI whispersWe can observe at the beginning of this week major shift in sentiment of the traders with Oil in their portfolio. As previous week still we saw money put on 130$, this week the last major level as Call Wall is at 100$. I would even include scenario that around that level we can go slightly higher due to Virgin VPOCs at 102 and 104.5 - still though it should be short-term run and only possible if wet closer to 100$ first.
So far we can observe downtrend on Oil. If 92.2$ will be broken, downtrend can continue. The next major Options and Darkpool markets Support lays at 80$. Before that there is no other level (so far) that can stop this move.
will today GOLD will fall ..? Buying Put options exp 07aprPrice is trading sideways and has retested many times horizontal support, with todays FOMC meeting minutes we expect volatility in gold price and potential of price breakout towards the downside....
in order to benefit from current scenario we can PUT options at 1920 strike price or below to get good RR and maximum risk of 2.20 euro per lot ( multiplied by number of lots you take ) for example in 5 lots max loss is around 11 euro only.. irrespective of how big price movement can be against ur trade..
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Remora Report, pump over going shortRemora Report 4/2-4/8 Swim with the whale and share its meal or be eaten like a minnow *living thread through the week, things change over time***
Earlier today we say close to 1billion in stable coins moved into exchanges, this proved the pump now
The open interest dropped and now so will the price, longs are closing our on longs vs shorts
twitter.com
We should trend sideways around 3500 for the coming days and options expiry on the weekly shows a drop by 4/8/22 to $3200 *this price will change over time
SO we should see lower lows after potentially Tuesday
www.coinoptionstrack.com
GME Short Play - Down to $130s by EODCurrent support for GME at $160.
Heavy sell pressure with regular drops below support before recovery, plus multiple previous supports shattered.
GME likely to fall to next support, likely the prior resistance at $136-$137 range by EOW (4/8) as bears have no sign of releasing pressure.
Puts on GME for $136 strike.
VXX Bearish inclined Naked Calls 1 Apr Expiry (Apr Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
I purposely ended my March trades last week because I felt this week would be super volatile given the Fed announcements on interest rates. This play turned out well as I got to write VXX calls that end 1 Apr at an amazing price
On the 15 March, I noticed that the VXX had stopped correlating with the market and I believe this had to do Barclay suspending new share creations of their VIX Short Term futures ETN (VXX). In a statement, the bank said it ran out of issuance capacity for the two products and would halt new creations indefinitely. It claimed the halts were not a result of the war in Ukraine
This divergence, allowed me to quickly write VXX Call options that expires 1 April at $3 a contract. I decided to use a smaller Margin (50k) because it is still a VUCA global situation and I wanted to have room to maneuver. I have also never seen the VXX diverge so drastically before.
I also believed that the Fed’s announcement would already be factored in to the past weeks and current volatility
I Feel
Pretty damn good, the VXX as aligned back to the market and right now the market is pretty bullish. Lengthen my distance to strike.
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
This trade is very opportunistic in timing and volatility. There is no way I would take the other side given the price movement.
Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer
The risk of this was the unknown of why the VXX was diverging from it’s original intention and what the implications where.
Look For New Information
I did a search to understand what was going on with the VXX, but I decided that it was better to look and based my decision on the current sentiment of the market.
How Do I Feel Now
I am very very happy with this play as it mitigated risk by having a shorter time frame, high contract price and also leveraged my understanding and tracking of the market’s key events.
Trade Specs
Sold 60 Calls @ 3.00 - Strike 58
% to Strike 41%
ATR 98%
BP used 51k
Max Gain: 18k
Eve & Adam Double Bottom confirmation on Costco ($COST)Earlier this month, Costco made confirmation of an Eve & Adam Double Bottom chart pattern as it began seeing daily closes above the mid range between lows. This pattern indicates a fairly high probability (about 88%) of a bullish reversal relative to the sell off which from the recent all-time high (571.49) achieved on December 29th, 2021.
Today, the price is within 10 points of the all-time high. I'll be looking over the coming weeks to see what happens next, and for possible positions. From here, I see one of two likely outcomes over the near term:
A) COST breaks out above the previous high and likely has a forcible move to the upside, or...
B) COST gets rejected from the current levels in the near term and has a pullback to somewhere around $520
In the case of A , I'll be looking to short either with a PUT spread, or potentially straight up long PUTs - which have a greater risk/reward but are enticing considering the macro picture of the broader market/economy as a whole. In the case of B , I'd shop for a long position with some kind of CALL spread.
The statistics indicate that track B has about a 2/3 chance of playing out. This could be even more advantageous because it could potentially offer both decent long and short opportunities over the next few months. We'll have to see where the chips fall.