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Options

Options Medium-term Week Review Let's jump to analyse the data from Options market and scan main markets from D1 timeframe perspective: DAX - opposite signals from Options flow, as in general we have recently present Bullish sentiment for last 3 sessions, but Option Volume flow still points to Bearish signal (as PUT Volume aka red line is higher/above CALL Volume aka green line). Virgin VPOCs are present on both sides - so above and below current price level. On last session DAX broke significant S/R Level (identified by balance point where PUT and CALL Volume were equal - my indicator is pointing such moments in time). As long as we're above 15616, price should go in direction of Virgins on 15907 and 16165. However careful observation is required further on German Index. S&P500 - Bullish sentiment from Options flow appeared recently and CALL Volume is increasing in comparison to PUT Volume - when green line moves above red line it will confirm fully Bullish sentiment. On the other hand we have multiple Virgin VPOCs levels below current price, what add odds to Bears Camp. Major Support Area is 4477.75-4507 zone. Gold - from quite a long time we see Bullish sentiment from Options Flow and PUT Volume should be soon lower than CALL Volume what adds confluence to Bullish move. Major Support zone is now 1783.5-1795.3 while still we have multiple Virgin VPOCs to retest above current price Level. Gold should climb up in the area of last major top on D1, around 1875. Oil - Bullish sentiment from Options flow and recently PUT Volume reached balance vs CALL Volume. It opens road for up move. Currently we're on major resistance (73.79) so small correction could appear, but overall Oil prices should continue climb up. Next major resistance is on 78.45 Just for reference, blue lines are Virgin VPOCs and red lines are major S/R Levels marked in moment of time where PUT Volume was equal to CALL Volume from Options flow. Options are giving us a big edge, when only we can properly analyse the data coming out of this market. My tools are analysing it and display end-results in fully objective way for newbie traders as well as for experienced ones. Please bear in mind, I am not predicting future but write assumptions only that can happen but doesn't need to. Trader need to be prepared for different scenarios.
COMEX:GC1!
by skyline-trader
Understanding OptionsTo gain a grasp on options it is essential to understand profit/loss diagrams for the various options whilst also understanding why they display such diagrams. Understanding profit/loss diagrams can help you gain insight into arbitrage trading(which is beyond the scope of this post) and will help you hedge various types of positions. We will first discuss the difference between being long from short, and will conclude why the diagrams are the way they are. LONG OPTIONS When you are long an option, you are paying a specified amount of money upfront. What does this mean? This means you can only lose the amount of money that you used to initiate the trade. This is known as having limited loss. Upon paying this premium you have the opportunity to gain infinite profits and will reap such profits if the underlying asset goes in your desired direction, hence you are paying a premium to acquire greater opportunity. SHORT OPTIONS Being short options is quite different than being long options. Instead of paying money upfront for the opportunity of large profits, you actually receive money upfront. This is also known as having limited profits. Once you place a short position you already have your max profits set in place. If I receive money upfront then how do I make a profit? Your endeavor as an option seller is for the person on the other side of the trade to be at a loss. Options are a zero-sum game. There are those that profit off of a trader's loss and there are those that acquire that loss. When you are selling an option there is someone on the other side of the trade that is long the option. This is important because as we have learned earlier, long options have infinite profit potential. This means that as an option seller you technically face the probability of having unlimited losses. For example, if you are selling a call there is someone that has purchased the call that you sold. If their call becomes unprofitable then you can buy back the call to offset the call that you have sold, acquiring a net profit. But if their call becomes profitable then you will have to offset the call that you sold, hence buying back the call at a larger price for a net loss. APPLYING KNOWLEDGE Lets now take a look at the option's profit/loss diagrams above. The Long Call displays a diagram in which the underlying asset must rise for you to make a profit, with the benefit of having limited losses. The Long Put displays the need for an asset to go down to reap a profit with the added benefit of only having a limited amount that can be lost. The Short Call displays the acquiring of a limited amount of profit with the desire for the underlying to not rise or else an infinite amount of loss will be faced. The Short Put displays the acquiring of a limited amount of profit with the desire for the underlying asset to not go down or else unlimited losses can be faced. p.s A great way to remember these diagrams is to picture them forming a diamond shape. The image above depicts that of a diamond formation which can help you form new profit/loss diagrams for advanced strategies. It is also very helpful to understand the rights and obligations that the various type of options have.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by ddcakez
$EEM naked PUT, high PoP #option #trade #Trades #OptionsTrading The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is a good choice for today high IVR credit trade. High PoP, very predictable profit. Reasons: - high reward for Jan21 monthly expiry (mangeable with rolling) -> collecting credit - breakeven point is far - RSI is oversold. Max profit: $92 Probability of 50%Profit: 84% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 14% Req. Buy Power: $633 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 104 (very high) Expiry: 49 days SETUP : NAKED PUT for $EEM, because IVR is high, for 0.92cr * Sell 1 $EEM JAN21'46 PUT Management : ROLLING if daily candle is closing below of BE. Take profit strategy : 50% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 0.46db Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
AMEX:EEMLong
by TanukiTrade
What is going on with SPYBefore i start posting my trade ideas and charts , wanted to post this quick as its pretty current. I trade Options and the underlying. Before I make any decisions on what to trade and how to trade it, first i need to understand what is going on in the Meta indicies and how Options are positioned. This well help me understand the type of Vol to expect and what type of strategies i should be using. Heres a quick birds eye view on how SPY has been playing out
AMEX:SPY
by Jgooodman
1
Bitcoin situation based on Options flowBitcoin is trading recently in clearly visible Trading Range, keeping investors nervous and asking question - is it Distribution or Accumulation? From Daily Timeframe we see in general Positive/Bullish sentiment from Options Traders, but it's not fully confirmed by the market yet. Going into more detailed M30, we see recent signals of incoming demand to the market identified by VSA Scanner in form of Selling Climax and Climactic Shakeout. Also Volume Area (blue rectangle on the chart identified also by Scanner) is retested from the top (top edge on 45945) what adds fuel for Bulls. From Daily Chart we could observe also equal ratio of Put and Call options what happened several times on level 46105. This is currently our major support which needs to be kept if Bullish tendence should continue be present on BTC. From Related Idea about BTC, you can remember that level 50000 is strong Put Wall. Billions of dollars are loaded into Options with Strike Price above 50k. Around area of 50k also we have present Supply Zone (red rectangle), therefore we can expect Bullish run up to that level, then correction most likely to happen. And here will come decisive moment for both camps - Bulls and Bears. We also have present Virgin VPOC on 54890 from beginning of December, what is another confluence factor for Long. And what only worries me, is Virgin VPOC from 30th September on 43100, which is the level below the current price (for the moment of writing analysis). Let's make some popcorn and see what happens next ;) Here comes handly VSA Scanner script, which will at earliest possibility warn us before potential Supply signals and Bears entering the market.
CME:BTC1!
by skyline-trader
Options Data forecasting turning points and key levelsOptions are major weapon (if properly used) in toolset of Trader. Billions of dollars each day are floating on market and speculation here is an art. Art performed by Big Guys (aka Smart Money), where funds are often significantly higher in comparison to Futures Market. With help of Machine Learning algorithms, I load Options Flow data, parse and analyse it and extract to Quandl Dataset. From there, I load it via API to Tradingview and display results in indicators. And I trade with edge instruments from Futures Market. This data doesn't need to be always used on Intraday timeframes. We can't forget about Big Picture aka Context. From D1 timeframe alongside with properly parsed Options Data, we're able to identify real key levels (not by using Price Action but by using Balance Points, where Volume of CALL options is equal to Volume of PUT options) - marked on DAX chart with red horizontal lines. Those are close prices of candles, on which indicator identified Balance Points (blue background on indicator). Demand always is trying to reach balance with Supply - therefore that's why it's even more important to observe such levels. I personally love to play retests of those levels and breakouts - especially when they happen after at least few days since initial Balance Point. We can't forget about Pressure. Who is dominating at the market? This is the question that traders are asking themselves each session. Based on multiple factors, like: Put/Call Ratio, Strike Prices and Expirations of Options, Volume put on Options, Type of Options (ATM, ITM or OTM) - Machine Learning is allocating weigh ratio to those factors and return result identified on indicator by green/red area. Bigger Area show stronger Imbalance on market (aka one side dominates the market). We have so many data around us, sorry - tons of data! We are unable to parse it and get insights manually. Here Machine Learning comes handy. I encourage you to deep dive into Options Market and combine it with picture, that Market draws you via chart. Market is based on emotions, so play what you see from moves of Big Players - which in majority believe me - are present on Options market.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by skyline-trader
2