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Whispers from Options - BTCWe observe weakness/Bears dominating BTC market recently. Options Sentiment Indicator is giving mixed signals (overall we see bullish sentiment from Options traders but more volume is within PUT options still). 4 Virgin VPOCs are awaiting retest and are located above current price in comparison to 1 VPOC below current price - Bullish pressure area of 46000 is major/key level, worth observing from Options OrderBook of contracts expiring in 26 days (28th January 2022) - there are no strong resistance levels (!!) - Bullish pressure. However major support levels (a lot of CALL orders awaiting) are relatively low - 35,36 k on H4 we see multiple Demand Signals coming from VSA Scanner software near 46 000 level
CME:BTC1!
by skyline-trader
XRT Bullish inclined Naked Puts 17 Dec Expiry (Dec Track 2)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought Feels like a safe position given that the market is seeming very bullish at the moment XRT has also broken a key resistance line and that transforms it into a solid support line XRT are retail discretionary companies and right now there seems to be alot of optimism. Consumers seem to be find paying for the current rising prices of products. I think will continue with the festive period Feds are probably not going to increase interest rates in Dec so we can expect that to not be a concern I Feel Solid and Confident Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side As a fact the inflation rate is high and it has already impacted wages and prices. Prices of durable goods are high vs last year Supply chain issues that are resulting in retailers unable to cope with demand is still not solved and this will have an impact on business that do not have ample reserves to sell Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer While inflation is a concern the market is showing a lot of bullishness This feels very straight forward Look For New Information Nothing new How Do I Feel Now I'm confident to pull the trigger Trade Specs Sold 0.65, 85 Put Contracts @ Strike 89 % to Strike 12% ATR % is Around 21% BP used 75k Max Gain: est $5525
AMEX:XRTLong
by Ronin_trader
VXX Bearish inclined Naked Calls 26 Nov Expiry (Nov Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought Market Bullish Stance The overall market seems to be back on it's bull run. This is reflected on the SPY and NDX who have both made new highs Sep Consumer Spending has lost momentum but still grew at 1.4% Sep Personal income was up 0.9% These factors, including the upcoming festive year end period. With less COVID19 restrictions should result in an increase in consumer spending with an appitite to accept raising prices (At least for this quarter) Est price to strike is around 54% which is a pretty good buffer and is around it's previous high. This is shielded by an S&R line at 28.5 I Feel Confident and safe I'm happy with the risk profile and it is also 50% hedging my RVLV trade Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side We could be at the bottom and a retracement is a possibility at least short term We expected Nov's market to be bearish volatile so this bullishness might be short term Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer Strike to price distance seems safe If we read the market for what it is now. It is bullish While some volatility might come as we close Dec due to the US debt ceiling Look For New Information US debt ceiling implications and the upcoming review date on the 3 Dec will cause some market volatility. For now while the country has a short reprieve from the threat of default, Yellen said some investments in funds through December 3 will remain suspended How Do I Feel Now Ready to enter! Trade Specs Sold 70 Calls @ 0.40 - Strike 30 % to Strike 46% ATR % is Around 12% BP used 65k Max Gain: est $2800
CBOE:VXXShort
by Ronin_trader
USB Bullish inclined Naked Puts 28 Jan Expiry (Jan Track 3)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought US Bancorp is an American bank holding company. With the Fed intending to increasing interest rates to combat the high inflation numbers. I expect banks to see an increase in their earnings from this especially near term where consumer sentiment is still bullish. Already the Nasdaq bank index is up around 32% for the year I Feel The market in my opinion is in a bearish range. With drops being deeper than the recoveries. USB and a number of the financial counters like MET, TFC, BK, BAC are in a similar price pattern. Mostly near the bottom of their range. If the range continues it will also be aligned to my near term POV on the banking sector Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side On the flip side as I do feel we are market wide in a bearish sideways movement. Having USB drop and break the range is also a possibility. Will need to monitor this. Also the price action since 25 Oct 2021 has been bearish. Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer This trade is really not about up or down but really about trading on the lack of expected volatility. Do we expect defining movements in Jan? Look For New Information There is an Earnings release on the 19 Jan that I only realised after I entered the trade. This is very careless of me... I will need to be vigilant during that period. But generally earnings in the past three quarters have beaten estimates How Do I Feel Now Somewhat lukewarm with my decision. I believe the uncertainty is due to the 19 Jan Earnings I did not notice. Also while the daily chart is showing a range and I am reacting to it and not predicting a bottom. I am still apprehensive as it can break the range. Trade Specs Sold 160 Puts @ 0.25 - Strike 51 % to Strike 10.14% ATR % is 94% BP used 81K Max Gain: est $3896
NYSE:USBLong
by Ronin_trader
$MSFT iron condor for 33% profit, 83% PoP #tradingHigh IVR, I'm not leaving money on the table. Max profit: $250 Probability of 50%Profit: 83% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 33% Max loss with my risk management: ~$200 Req. Buy Power: $755 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 80 (ultra high for Microsoft) Expiry: 50 days SETUP: IC for $MSFT, because IVR ultra high, collecting 2.5cr * Buy 1 MSFT Jan21' 290 Put * Sell 1 MSFT Jan21' 300 Put * Sell 1 MSFT Jan21' 360 Call * Buy 1 MSFT Jan21' 370 Call SAFETY ZONES: : Prev. resistance could act as support at ~$306, prev.ATH could act as resistance at $338. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing out of the the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~$200. Take profit strategy: 50% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 1.25db Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NASDAQ:MSFT
by TanukiTrade
$ARKF SHORT PUT for Jan21, high PoP 20% profit #ark #optionsAny kind of ETF naked PUTs are my favorite at high IVR. My choice for today: ARK Fintech Innovation ETF Reasons: - high reward for Jan21 monthly expiry (mangeable with rolling) -> collecting credit - RSI is already oversold - breakeven point is far - PUT strike at 0.618 fib Max profit: $210 Probability of Profit: 89% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 20% Req. Buy Power: $1035 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 73 (very high) Expiry: 38 days SETUP : NAKED PUT for $ARKF, because IVR is high, for 0.7cr * Sell 3 $ARKF JAN21'35 PUT Management : ROLLING if daily candle is closing below of BE. Take profit strategy : 70% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 0.2db Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
CBOE:ARKFLong
by TanukiTrade
Lemonade "I am shocked"Monthly in Red, Weekly in Blue and short term in Pink I have seen so many charts but not like this, It has broken all the lows and made a new monthly Low to 40. I really want to be helpful for people who are stuck but this is just another opinion, sometimes you have to see as it is. Where are we on this? Previously all time low was broken a couple of month before so I had to adjust to fib extension instead of retracement. Now don't take me to 100% extension because that's taking me to negative and 78% is to 14. Very bad. What else we have? The good part, we are currently at 45 which is higher than previous low 44.11 in 2020 but will it close this month above it or below it. Very important. Recovery structure in short term does not look promising but possibility for a fake bounce to fail. Know your levels when to get out and get in. Stop loss can be 44 or 40 depends upon the risk you can take. In short good sign can be: Monthly candle should not make lower low and a doji is better to form a good base and the bad sign can be: everything you see in the chart continues same way.
NYSE:LMND
by letslearn
5
Strategy & Analysis with Options Tool suite kitToday I would like to introduce you all to process of analysis step by step instruments with usage of Options Toolkit Suite. I wrote in my earlier posts what edge can give us data obtained from Options Market. So now let's jump into details and have step-by-step detailed guide. Firstly we need chart layout split to 3, as on three different timeframes we will perform analysis and monitoring for potential trade opportunities. Process follows: All starts on D1 timeframe looking for key levels - where we can check Eagle-eye view perspective. Here most important is Options Flow Sentiment indicator (at the bottom) where we look for blue background - it means equal Volume on CALL and PUT options aka Balance on market is set. From those moments in time we take close of the candle/bar - and this is our significant S/R Level. If there is level too close to another one, I skip drawing it just not to make chart too noisy. Continue on D1 timeframe checking Options flow Sentiment - also looking into sentiment indicator, I check firstly for green/red background. This is self-explanatory showing advantage of Bears or Bulls camps respectively. Then I am looking where is more money on Options flow put - if green line is above red line, it means volume of CALL Options is respectively bigger than PUT ones (aka Options traders put more money on Bullish move). In reverse works the situation for Bears, where red line is above green one. Check for Virgin VPOCs on M30 - I am looking for untested next day VPOC levels. Those levels are always retested by market = working like a magnet. The only question is when it will happen. It's convenient to know if multiple levels are below/above current price level in order to know the balance/pressure on the market. Also for Intraday Trading, if price passes one of Gamma Levels near VPOC, we can try to trade a move with target on Virgin VPOC. Mark Demand/Supply Zone on M30 - When we see multiple Bullish/Bearish candles in row so in other words strong impulse on market, I am looking where this move began. When I identify it, first reverse candle before this impulse sets range of Zone. Ok so jumping to example: in case of strong Bullish impulse, in the place where it started I am searching for last Bearish candle before start of this impulse. This candle's High and Low are marking range of the zone. After setting up zone, I am waiting for First Retest of this Zone . In case of Demand Zone (bullish impulse) I play in case of retest Long, in case of Supply Zone (bearish impulse), I play in case of retest Short. Very often we also can observe confluence, where within Zone or in close neighbourhood we will also have present one of Gamma levels. In case of Zone fail during 1st retest, this is also major signal but in direction of breakthrough zone. Intraday Setups on M15 - Gamma Levels are marking key levels for observation. In general breaking through Gamma level is a signal for potential trade with target on next Gamma Level. Very rarely are passed levels Extreme Low and Extreme High of the Day which are setting typical maximum expected range of the day. Breakthrough Gamma -1/+1 is a signal of anomaly and typical for Trend Day. So if this level won't hold, then I play in direction of breakthrough. Another setup is bounce from Gamma -/+ 0.5 which is often very strong Intraday Level. In case of observed bounce back, target of the trade is Pivot (mid between Gamma -0.25 and +0.25). Additional confluence factors - I am looking not for quantity, but for quality in case of trades - that's why I take opportunities which are having in common more factors aligned in direction of trade that I plan to take. Therefore when Gamma Level is passed and I have relatively close Virgin VPOC is one additional example. Another one would be Gamma level within or in close neighbourhood of Demand/Supply Zone. Last but not least - VSA Scanner Signals. When I see before Gamma level Demand (signals below candle/bar) or Supply (signals above candle/bar), it can add me additional confluence factor or sometimes push me to avoid taking this particular trade - when I expect Bullish move but I see instead Supply signals.
NYMEX:CL1!
by skyline-trader
2