Options
ES/SPX Weekly Plan | 12/12 - 12/17Big week ahead in terms of tapering updates. We are very bullish coming into the week for the following reasons:
1. The market has been made aware of Powell's true stance on inflation since he told everyone "we need to let go of the word transitory." We did sell off soon after to 4500 as the market received the news, but since then, everyone has had time to digest it, and we rallied sharply back to almost all time highs. to me, that says they're essentially "accepting" his plan and think that the market is strong enough to withstand the taper
2. Big big dark pool prints all last week even with the knowledge of tapering. This is very supportive for the market
Dec 15 will be very important. Powell can crush everyone's hopes and dreams if he comes out hawkish and speeds up his taper plan or increases the number of tapers. If this happens, our bias will change quickly.
$BABA highest IVR in this year = bullish Iron Condor #tradingAlibaba IVR is 170 without event?! No way.. I'm literally waiting these rocket IVR days in this year!
Chinese stocks are dumping hard. Alibaba Group is maybe the biggest and the best to play with some bullish IC.
Max profit: $230
Probability of 50%Profit: 81%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 30%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$200
Req. Buy Power: $770 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 170 (high for )
Expiry: 49 days
SETUP: IC for 2.3cr, because IVR ultra high
* Buy 1 BABA Jan21' 80 Put
* Sell 1 BABA Jan21' 90 Put
* Sell 1 BABA Jan21' 150 Call
* Buy 1 BABA Jan21' 160 Call
Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing out of the the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~$200.
Take profit strategy: 60% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 0.92db
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
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#AVGO - PUT Opportunity#AVGO is at all time highs recently gapping up however if you pulled the FLOW on Unusual Whales yesterday the 13th you quickly saw that the FLOW was 73% bearish with extremely large PUTS and Sold Calls being placed against AVGO for this friday's experation played the $600 PUT and already mid way through the day am up 170%
After Dividends GIS Raised Prices...Will They CRUSH Earnings?Is GIS part of the global Supply Crunch? After several months our GIS retail play is holding up nicely but will they crush earnings? It seems they're poised to knock this out the park on 12 21, but anything could happen. Please DYOR before jumping in to GIS, read their prospectus & recent SEC filings, so there are no surprises. Full disclosure considering cutting bags here. We're done at the grocery store this quarter, & may look to rotate back into sectors that are down.
$LOW | 12/13-12/17 | Watchlist #4 $LOW $260 bounce
(Bounce off 260 for calls)
Technical analysis: Bull flag breakout on the hourly chart
News catalyst: "Lowe's holds a Financial Outlook event. The home improvement retailer is expected to focus some of its commentary on operating margin opportunities. Expect some analysis following the event on whether or not Lowe's can close the margin gap with Home Depot (NYSE:HD). Shares of Lowe's jumped 6% last year after the event featured some strong guidance." - Seeking Alpha
$LCID | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 12/13$LCID 1D
Last week, we saw Lucid sell off on senior notes offering news. Bouncing off the GP, we may see potential bottom here. Wait for smaller degree wave 1-2 form first (green path) for some better confirmation. Also included a fractal path to note labelled in blue...
$AAPL | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 12/13$AAPL 1W
Huge weekly breakout on the chart as well as the oscillator, confirming uptrend. Been holding calls since the $162 break and plan to take profits early in the week between $179-182. Expecting some chop/cool down soon.
Big congrats if you've been following this with me.