S&P500 Iron Condor 60% profit 76% PoP50, high IVR for #optionsI just can't resist the very high IVR for large ETFs, like SPY.
My most common strategies these at corrections are the Iron Condors, neutral or negative delta.
SAFETY ZONES: 200MA could act as support, ATH could act as resistance.
Max profit: $375
Probability of 50%Profit: 76%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 60%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$150
Req. Buy Power: $625 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 49 (ultra high for S&P500)
Expiry: 56 days
SETUP : IC for , because IVR ultra high, for 3.75cr
* Sell 1 SPY Jan21' 420 Put
* Buy 1 SPY Jan21' 430 Put
* Buy 1 SPY Jan21' 480 Call
* Sell 1 SPY Jan21' 490 Call
SETUP: IC for SPY, because IVR ultra high.
Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing out of the the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~150$.
Take profit strategy: 50% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 1.88db.
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
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Options
Very Concerning Chart for the S&P FuturesWe are seeing a new variant concerning many scientists emerging in South Africa.
My opinion is leaning towards that this could be something much bigger than what the market may initially shrug off. I expect a very red day tomorrow as the implications for this are massive with the supply chain crisis and the labor shortage.
Be safe!
BBY Fib Retracement and Prediction BBY had a heavy drop for earnings on Tuesday. I was lucky enough to have grabbed some lotto puts before close and ended up making 600%. After that, I added $125 calls 12/17 around the $117.50 area at 1.95 once I saw a reversal confirmation and that it was bouncing off the 200ma on the daily. What I expect to happen tomorrow is BBY to push up to the 124.38 area and then go back down from there. If I see it resisting at the fib, I will sell my calls for profit and switch to puts. If it is able to break 124.38 and the mental barrier of 125, I will continue riding my calls until I see a reason to exit.
$RIVN will be $151 by Christmas$1.2T infrastructure bill passing
Their R1S and R1T EV pickup truck deliveries to start Jan 2022
Cybertruck keeps getting delayed and the F150 ligtning is looking more like June 2022.
EV pickup trucks are the next natural evolutionary step in transition to low carbon autonomous driving vehicles…. then comes the Tesla Semi to take over the world.
ETH still in a downtrend till FridayEthereum is still finishing its last lag of its ABC move to the downside with a C move incoming that might hurt some leveraged traders out there. With futures expiring this Friday it would make sense for ETH to trade lower than its current price levels. My(!) max pain price based on info I have would be around 3850. So I expect ETH to be around that price point on Friday afternoon after finding support in the lower order block (yellow). If however, ETH holds in the upper order block or above this scenario is invalidated. Keep an eye on the bear flag break and the price action in the order blocks. This last move is a shake out for the leveraged traders and options traders and will scare the market into bearish sentiment and thus the perfect time for the market maker to step in to reverse the trend for (possibly) a move to a new ATH.
IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
PROG - FTD's vs T+2 vs Delta Hedging Calls ITM are more than likely already bought.
The calls when exercised are a transfer of shares and not always a new purchase of shares.
IMO the buying pressure on Monday led to MM hedging their position on PROG on Tuesday.
With added buying pressure it sent PROG up to north of $6. This level hasn't been seen since Feb 21.
Support was found and investors rallied, causing maybe some more hedging.
Bagholders from then, day traders, and profit takers got out.
This selling pressure caused, again, a MM hedging, this time they sold shares they previously bought. This is extreme resistance, MM know this.
Support was found and bulls rallied to cause (perhaps) some more MM hedging.
The large swings in price caused extra buying/selling pressure but bulls in control
Higher lows can be set above $4.00
Just because there were a high volume of ITM that expired on 11/19/21 we cannot assume that
all/most of these were either naked calls. MM go out and hedge when the price is running up by
buying shares. They can also sell those shares if the option falls OTM. If the itm calls are
exercised on then is more likely than not those shares are already owned and priced into
the stocks price. It is unwise IMO to assume the idea behind T+2 and more shares
being hedged for after expiry. That said, if the shares cannot be located then that's when it becomes an
FTD and could take 30+ days to settle.
#M Cup & Handle incomingGoing through my morning charting on trading view and i remember seeing #M on unusual whales pop up frequently and i glanced at the chart almost moved on to the next play and literally did a double look, but a cup is fully formed perfect on the one year one day and one year one week chart as you see in the image. It will be interesting to see if we can put a couple red days together this week to form the handle will be putting in some trades for mid Dec. to help myself with the Theta and to see if this comes to fruition it will be cheaper to pick up contracts on pull back days either way. Also their ecommerce business is also coming along form what i had read recently in either case this def makes for a play to go in your watch list, Fed is also supposed to make an announcement today which when that normally happens we have VERY RED days so i guess as they say the STARS ARE ALIGNING lol.
$PYPL | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 11/22Very ugly move for PayPal last week. I have since taken profits on the initial bounce we got from $201 to $215. I hold no options for the time being. Weakness from last week opens up the possibility to see $169-170 get tested before a major low is potentially put in. Be patient with this one and careful catching a falling knife with weakness present.
$OSTK | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 11/22Pretty uneventful week for this one last week. Plan stays the same, and looking for wave 2 buys below in the $98-103 region targeting $132 ultimately. Staying patient here.