$PYPL | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 11/22Very ugly move for PayPal last week. I have since taken profits on the initial bounce we got from $201 to $215. I hold no options for the time being. Weakness from last week opens up the possibility to see $169-170 get tested before a major low is potentially put in. Be patient with this one and careful catching a falling knife with weakness present.
Options
$OSTK | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 11/22Pretty uneventful week for this one last week. Plan stays the same, and looking for wave 2 buys below in the $98-103 region targeting $132 ultimately. Staying patient here.
UPST - has had an incredible runUPST has had quite the year producing those that took a chance on it some outstanding returns due to the fact it not only asses risk but can also manage returns with it's AI software which has led to some incredible earnings report from the GATE which does not make sense when you look at the price action why the price would fall so much, i am very bullish on this play long term as i see Ai being the future of just about everything i also made a video breakdown the company it's software and some of the price targets smart money has for them
$MU | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 11/22Swing execution plan still remains the same. Micron just decided it wanted $80+ first. Still seeing this initial impulse as a wave 1 and looking for a wave 2 below. Since wave 1 was larger than I expected, I have adjusted my count for waves 2,3,4 and 5 to accommodate this change. (much larger 5 waves up)
INTC - Possible Good Entry PointI recently made a video on #INTC as when looking at the chart showed very good patterns, 1 being every NOV -DEC has a consolidation period followed by a nice run usually ending in MARCH - APRIL with only one exception to that 2020 ( covid dip ) over the last 5 years, this year it has once again shown a consolidation period or dip in the price action actually getting very close to approaching a strong trend line which as acted as a support going as far back as 2013 in the chart with only 2 false breaks but for the most part holding up great. I will be looking to see if it does get closer to approaching that support line to enter a position with shares and options for MAR APR MAY expiration as that has also shown to repeat in the charts as being the point where the price starts to dip once again.
INTU#INTU has been constantly trading in this upward channel, breaking above it recently and with an awesome earnings report skyrocketed based on the chart one can expect it run back down to within the channel or if it builds strong momentum it will be interesting to see if it can keep going however my money is on a short term PUT option. check out www.UnusualWhales.com for guidance on the flow to see where money is going.
DHI Descending Channel Break for Long EntryDescription
DHI has been working this descending channel since hitting an ATH in May of this year, and off the earnings we may be seeing a break out.
A close > 94 triggers a long.
Using a call debit spread, because profits are always limited by time.
Will look to enter at EOD.
Call Debit Spread
Tentative Levels on Chart
SL is a daily close back in the channel.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
12/3 95C
SELL
12/3 105C
R/R & Break-evens vary on fill.
The long call is placed ITM due to limited strikes but also offers good downside protection.
The short call is placed at the ATH. If DHI runs to ATH and holds, I'll look to roll the spread up.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
AAPL hitting major resistanceWhats up guys. Haven't posted in a long while but looking to start posting more often again.
For those that haven't seen my ideas before I use very basic trend lines and Fib levels to determine entries and exits on large companies like TSLA, FB, AAPL, etc.
I then use options to maximize earning potential, typically looking at those expiring within the current week or the next.
I'll be looking to buy some puts today or monday on AAPL as a short term correction looks inevitable.
Options flow predicting moves on Derivatives (Futures)Options have been and are an important instrument on the financial market for a trader trading Intraday Futures. Therefore, while exploring the mechanics of the option market over the last several months, as a result of work, indicators were created that load data from Quandl and then look for patterns that may herald a change of direction on the derivative market - in this case Futures Contracts. There are two main types of Options:
CALL - allow their owner to buy a given product in the future at a predetermined price (Strike Price)
PUT - allow you to sell this product at a predetermined price (Strike Price)
By observing the market volumes of both types of Options, we can observe the sentiment of investors. The key factors are which volume (call or put) prevail in the volume and the dynamics of the volume - what is the trend on volume, whether the difference between them increases or decreases. In addition, the Put / Call Ratio analysis allows you to confirm or negate the signals from the Option volume. The Ratio indicator behaves inversely to the price movement - in the case of a bearish sentiment, we expect the ratio to increase, and in the case of bullish sentiment - the indicator should decrease. If the Ratio follows the price in the same direction, it is an anomaly.
Of course, the mere observation of the Option volumes and the Put / Call ratio is not sufficient, as the Options Market is a much more complicated activity. It is worth including in the calculations such factors as Expiration Date, Bonus Amount, option type (In the Money, Out of Money or At the Money). Not each of the factors is equally important, therefore the key is additionally the appropriate selection of the weighting factors. For this purpose, due to the multitude of data, it is worth using Machine Learning, which I also do by saving the resulting data in a dataset in Quandl and displaying the data in TradingView using Pine Script.
Below are some additional examples from recent sessions on ES showing the predictive nature of the Option sentiment, often preceding major movements in the ES index (during the spot session):
First, from the left, the session from November 15 is shown and an opportunity to play Short. On the right, the session from November 16 and an opportunity to play the Long position this time.
Session from November 10, where we first got the Bull's signal, and at the top we got a warning signal of traffic reversal and the possibility of entering Short:
And one of my favorite moves on November 3: