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SNBR Hedged Options StrategyPopular smart bed company Sleep Number sells beds, mattresses, pillows and bedding related products directly to customers via 600+ retail stores, telephone order, and e-commerce. Adjustable temperature, firmness, motion sensing and automatic contouring, even snoring prevention technology are part of their luxury product catering to an aging population in the middle of a health and wellness boom -- with sleep as an increasingly buzzier part of the conversation. Americans buy 16+ million new mattresses a year, spending an average of ~$1000 per unit, making it a $12.55 billion industry. More people are relocating due to job/work-from-home opportunities and changing real estate trends (opting to buy a new mattress instead of moving an old one) -- the projected steady growth could become a surge. SNBR reports earnings Wednesday after market close, and posted beats for the previous 2 Q's. Here's one argument for the stock being undervalued. Technically minded investors might also see some promising chart patterns forming as well, and a buying opportunity after a major selloff in the last two years. However, with its recent loss of CFO and announcement that chip shortages were a challenge, an investment in SNBR would not be without uncertainty. Here's an options investing strategy that offers both downside protection and upside potential. Make a fixed 12% (22% annualized) at maturity as long as SNBR does not fall more than 23%. Further protection: SNBR can fall 31% through expiration before you start to lose any money. Hedged like this: Sell 2 $25 puts Exp 9/15/23 Capital requirement: $4472
NASDAQ:SNBRLong
by oliveinvest
BKI hedged options strategyBlack Knight, Inc. provides integrated software, hosting, data, and analytics services for the mortgage industry. Subsidiaries include mortgage and home equity loan application platform MSP, customer account app Servicing Digital, retention and liquidation app Loss Mitigation, loan origination systems Empower and LoanCatcher, and investor/broker community LoanSifter PPE. Black Knight also offers property ownership and lien data, automated valuation models, collateral risk scores, multiple listing service, and eSign, eClosing, and remote online notarization (RON) solutions, with plans to integrate with Wolters Kluwer's eNote and eVault for complete digitization of the mortgage application and closing process. TA-oriented investors will note a few optimistic patterns forming, as well as the CCI indicating an uptrend. But BKI also faced opposition and anti-trust regulation when it announced that it would join mortgage technology industry giant Intercontinental Exchange ICE (owner of Ellie Mae as well as the NYSE). With increased interest rates and housing inflation, will the mortgage industry take a hit? After earnings results were released Tues morning, here's a strategy that offers some downside protection while maintaining growth potential. Make a 10% yield (26% annualized) unless BKI falls more than 14% to below $54.59. Start to lose only if BKI falls by more than 19% to below $51.76 as of 7/21/23. Buy 1 $40 put Sell 2 $55 puts Exp 7/21/23 Capital requirement: $6,352
BLong
by oliveinvest
GOLD XAUUSD Sell prep, Caution!XAUUSD GOLD FOREX COMMODITIES METALS OPTIONS Despite the asset's recent price decline, signs of strength have emerged. However, estimates imply that another bearish leg could occur, targeting the 1815 Francis Sell objective and perhaps falling below 1800. A bearish move similar to that of November 2020 could be in progress, and if so, it would aim for below the 1800 level. In any case, there will be an explosion, and it would not be desirable to enter into a heated argument with furious .... Heed your DD!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by FroggyFX
2
EBIX Long Options StrategyInternational SaaS and technology company Ebix offers software and e-commerce services to the insurance, financial, travel and healthcare industries. It recently announced that it closed 2022 with record volumes on AnnuityNet4 (AN4) --its annuity exchange platform that handles roughly 70% of the electronic annuity transactions in the industry, integrated with partners such as Cannex, DocuSign, OneSpan, DTCC. Other areas of business include CRM, Forex, and e-learning solutions. Fundamentally, Ebix has a market cap of 623.2M and P/E of 9.47x -- with price targets from $43-150, averaging $97. TA-oriented investors may spy some consolidation into a falling wedge as well as some possible bullish momentum. But tech stocks in general are volatile in this market, and it's hard to tell if this small cap will chop or rally. With this options strategy, capture up to 12% (20% annualized) of the potential gain while also allowing EBIX room to fall 63% before losing any of the initial investment. Hedged like this: Buy 1 $20 call Sell 1 $22.5 call Sell 3 $7.5 puts Exp 9/15/23 Capital Requirement: $2239
ELong
by oliveinvest
Crypto market cap > $1Trillion!!!BTCUSD - Crypto - Optionsplay Last week, the crypto industry experienced a surge as the total market cap surpassed $1 trillion. The asset is currently at a previously profitable sell spot which incidentally becomes a grey checkpoint considering the sheer power behind the rally-ride up to the level; Now that the digital currency has surpassed the $21,000 threshold, is this the start of a more horizontal structure providing a positive signal for the long-term trading range? In the foreseeable term, the momentum is strongly bullish and a confirmed break predicts price increases. This may indicate a rise in investor confidence and a potential price increase for bitcoin. A few boxes need to be checked off first... Heed your DD!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by FroggyFX
7
GM Long Options StrategyHeritage brands are making a comeback, as if they ever really went away. General Motors makes Buicks, Cadillacs, Chevrolets, GMCs as well as vehicles under the Holden, Baojun, and Wuling brands. Known for being reliable, they are a go-to for automotive-dependent businesses such as daily rental car companies, commercial fleet customers, leasing companies, and governments. Even though Detroit-based GM is more than a century old (founded in 1908), their newest offerings include safety and security services, automatic crash response, roadside/crisis/emergency assistance, navigation, remote control applications. They are also developing self-driving technology, and a highly anticipated electric pickup truck. Other areas of business are vehicle financing (through GM Financial) and subscription services in their app ecosystem. They also re-instated dividend payouts last year, adding to investor interest. Technically, it has a couple of indicators going for it: a bullish flag, double bottom, some previous consolidation into a falling wedge. But that gap down... a good dip or a harbinger? And how to navigate this choppy stock market? This protective options strategy makes up to 18% (12% annualized) and allows GM stock price to fall up to 22% (to below $27.98) before you start to lose any money. Buy 1 $35 call Sell 1 $40 call Sell 1 $28 put All expiring 6/21/24 Capital required: $2798
NYSE:GMLong
by oliveinvest
AAPL Ascending Intermediate Trend Break Bear Market PlayDescription AAPL has had a nice run up following the upside break of its intermediate bear trendline (descending 2pt red line) on 24 JUN, forming its new intermediate upside trend (ascending 2pt green line) all the way up to its Descending Major Bear Trend (descending 3pt line) cemented on 30MAR. This week and the next will certainly end with a clearer picture for direction moving forward, but given current market conditions it is more likely that it should be down. SPY and DIA have seen similar intermediate moves, but have not made it to their descending major trend lines yet meaning a reversal is still far from being signaled, and this week will show how the IXIC behaves after having breached it on 10 AUG. It is still early in the Bear Market - geopolitical and economic risks have not cooled substantially to merit a major reversal in trend. Real inversion of the Yield Curve has only just occurred on 13 JUL and the trends are in for further inversion moving forward. Technical Indicators to signal the entry: Daily close below the intermediate trend accompanied by significant volume spike Major Trend Line rejection Downside break of the 168 - 171 Supply/Demand Zone Bear cross on MACD Technical Risk Factors: Golden Cross on 50/200 EMA Although a golden cross is usually considered a strong reversal signal, I am discounting this technical risk factor due to the 200 EMA remaining relatively flat in the early bear market. VIX downside break of Major Ascending Trendline on 4 AUG IXIC established over Major Bear Descending Trendline There is no real price target here as this is basically a trend trade - hence a longer dated Put - but there are take profit targets @ 156.5 , 137 & 130 . If all targets were met, advise a runner and potentially a roll down and out prior to expiration. Using a Long ITM Put here in order to: achieve a higher delta, maintain a conservative position, get long volatility while the VIX is low, and leave the downside open in case of a long, swift fall. Long Put Levels on Chart SL: 177.5 PT: Down the trend TP: 156.5, 137 & 130 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 10/21 180P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by BarnardR
XLE Energy Sector approaching ATH. Options play with CushionWith energy prices continuing their rise due to global shortages and war, XLE has climbed over 50% YTD. The potential upside to all-time highs, along with the intact trend since March of 2020 are enticing. It might be harder to take on a position after a 100% YoY increase and not feel like its FOMO. So, I look for options to enter with a bullish outlook but protect from downside volatility. Using a custom options strategy we can build in a 23% cushion ($65.38) and still capture all the upside to the ceiling ($89.13). Using this strategy, it’s possible to make up to 9% ( 15% annualized ). Start to lose only if XLE falls by more than 22% to below $63.58 as of 03/31/2023 . Option Order Buy 1 $82 call Sell 1 $87 call Sell 1 $64 put Exp 3/31/23 Required to invest: $6,362.98
AMEX:XLELong
by oliveinvest
MRNA Support Bounce Weekly Option PlayDescription Today saw MRNA performing a high-volume bounce from the 224 support line which initiated the start of what appears to be a rough Descending Triangle. I am bearish on MRNA for the longer term, but expect this upward move to continue throughout the week, along with the rest of the indexes that have seen a strong bounce today. At the least, I am expecting a move up to touch the converging 50/200D EMA lines, and looking for a max expected move in the time frame of one week up to the higher strike @ 257.5 to take profits. If the move is strong enough, we will let the position trade late into Friday to allow the spread to widen out to max profit potential, but I am willing to close the position early. Using a call credit spread to reduce the price and due to expectations of an IV decrease throughout the week. Call Credit Spread Levels on Chart SL: 224 PT : 257.5 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 1/14 235C SELL 1/14 257.5C R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. If you can afford it, and have the conviction in the direction of MRNA, I would opt for a Call in conjunction with a Put Credit Spread. This will allow you realize profits much sooner in the case of a meteoric rise such as the one that occurred from 18 - 26 November. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NASDAQ:MRNALong
by BarnardR
TWTR Symmetrical Triangle Break Weekly Options PlayDescription TWTR has broken out of a Symmetrical Triangle consolidation pattern following the previous breakout of the large broadening pattern circled in yellow and breaking down its major trendline (3pt up-slanting blue line). Symmetrical Triangles are a congestion pattern representing indecision and typically forming in an already established trend before a further move in the direction that preceded the pattern. Here we see a large spike in volume at the beginning of the pattern, followed by descending volume throughout, and eventually the large spike in volume on the breakout, beyond the safe 3% margin, on 4JAN making a textbook "coil". An additional technical indicator is the MACD convergence. The resulting price move implied by the pattern is equal to price move that preceded the pattern. Here I am using the long candles on 10NOV following the breakout of the broadening pattern as the starting point, giving a pattern-implied price move down to ~32. Our price target will be more conservative @ 34 due to the expiration of the position. Using a Long Put to remain long volatility and short stock. Long Put Levels on Chart SL is a daily close back in the triangle PT : 34 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 2/4 40P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:TWTRShort
by BarnardR
3
AAPL Rising Wedge Break Weekly Options PlayDescription AAPL has broken out of an Ascending Wedge to the downside following an ATH just over 182. Ascending Wedges are at most intermediate in their trend implication and represent a general petering out of investment interest as the formation progresses and the stock becomes more expensive. Wedges typically take at least 3 weeks to form, otherwise they would be classified as a pennant. Also, prices usually travel 2/3 of the way through the formation. These are two technical facts we see here when using the bounce on 26NOV to 02DEC as the start of the pattern. The resulting price move implied by the pattern is equal to at least an entire retracement of ground covered by the formation of the Ascending Wedge, to 156.75. Using a Long Put combined with a Call Credit Spread here in lieu of a Put Debit Spread The reason for this is to decrease the overall debit of the position, but also leave profit potential open to the downside in the case of a long or swift fall accompanied by a sharp increase in IV. Long Put Levels on Chart Reevaluation: 177.5 PT : 159 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 2/4 40P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by BarnardR
NKE Potential Double Top - What's Next?Description NKE has now rejected the 175 level for the third time, now I am tracking this Descending Triangle consolidation pattern. This could be a Double-Top pattern in the making, although the Double-Top is notoriously difficult to track, and nearly never confirmed until long after is has finished it's formation. Evidence indicative of the usual Double Top: Two tops at approximately the same level, but more than a month apart Somewhat less activity on the second advance than the first Dull or irregular, rounding-type of recession between them It is noted that should a small H&S or descending triangle occur at the second top, long commitments should be protected with a tight stop, or switched to a more promising chart picture. In NKE's chart, we see two Tops at approximately the same level (within 3%), and approximately 3 months apart, which is a strong indication that this is not a normal congestion or consolidation pattern. Slightly more activity can be seen on the second advance than the first, and there is distinctly low activity throughout the entire pattern. The recession between the tops marks one of the only increases in activity in the entire pattern, taking place perfectly at the last known resistance around 145, and marked with a large gap down following the earnings report on 23SEP. At the second peak, NKE is currently undergoing some type of consolidation that appears to be a descending triangle with irregular volume. What, in picture, appears to be a "Descending Triangle" has highly irregular volume throughout and could potentially be portrayed as a Falling Wedge. The Descending Triangle has bearish implications, while the Falling Wedge has bullish implications. Although the volume displayed is not conducive to either formation, it could be explained by high volatility in the indexes. With these things in mind, I believe the best position to put on is a 3-month Straddle. The options market right now is implying about a 14% move in either direction in the next 3 months, so any expiration beyond 146 or 194 would be profitable in that time period, with the last potential support being at 143 for the downside, and all-time highs to the upside. I, however, will be putting on a directional play based off of where I think the indexes are heading: Long Put Levels on Chart SL > 175 PT : 150 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 01/07/22 155P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. This put generates a good breakeven in advance of the 145 support if held until expiration. If you would like me to build the Straddle or build a Strangle, just ask. The Strangle will create a cheaper position, but push the breakevens further away from the current stock price. As always, time will tell Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:NKEShort
by BarnardR