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GOLD → False or true resistance breakout?OANDA:XAUUSD is trying to consolidate above the previously broken boundary of the ascending channel. The struggle that has not ended creates risks for both buyers and sellers. The weakening USD, coupled with the lack of clarity surrounding President Donald Trump's policy plans and ongoing trade wars, continues to provide support for gold. Inflation expectations are rising amid a period of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain high interest rates for an extended period to control increasing price pressures. Since taking office, President Trump has provided little detail on his proposed tariffs, raising questions about the seriousness of these measures and their potential impact. In the coming days and weeks, the precious metals market will be influenced by constantly shifting news from Washington. Resistance levels: 2758, 2770 Support levels: 2750, 2745, 2730 Currently, prices are consolidating above previously broken resistance levels. If there is no bullish momentum and the price breaks through a false resistance channel, gold may decline toward 2745 - 2730. However, a breakout above the local resistance level could trigger buying and push the price to the target: 2770. Best regards, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
4
[01/20] GEX Outlook: Decision, Key Levels and Looming VolatilityLooking at the GEX levels through Friday, we can see that since mid-December, the market has been moving in a slightly downward channel. Above 6000–6025: A call gamma squeeze is expected. Between 5925 and 6000: A sideways “chop zone.” Below 5925: The high-volatility zone begins, with 5800–5850 acting as our major support/resistance level characterized by heavy put dominance. Below that level lies a “total denial zone.” We’ve seen this scenario before—think back to the red candle on December 18, when the price broke below that threshold. This “red zone” is currently around 5800, so below 5925 we can anticipate large-amplitude moves. At this point, the market still does not seem worried about significant volatility. Until Friday, all NETGEX values for every expiration are positive , so market participants are pricing in more of a sideways movement. We haven’t yet seen a big pickup in volatility. I’m not pessimistic, but keep in mind that Trump’s inauguration might usher in a high-volatility period—something the market and many retail traders haven’t experienced in a while. Better safe than sorry.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
EUR/USD: Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern AppearsDear friends, On the D1 timeframe, EUR/USD is showing promising signs with the formation of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, signaling a potential reversal of the downward trend. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.039, down by 0.12% for the day. However, this could simply be a minor pullback before a significant breakout. The focus is now on the 1.034 support area, which is seen as a crucial foundation for the market to stage a strong rally. If this level holds, EUR/USD has a high chance of advancing toward the 1.045 resistance level, where we could anticipate a potential breakout. Notably, a solid consolidation above 1.045 would pave the way for EUR/USD to climb further, with no significant barriers in sight to prevent the pair from reaching the 1.060 target. What are your thoughts on the upcoming trend? Can EUR/USD break through the 1.045 level and surge toward 1.060? Share your opinions and predictions in the comments below – let’s discuss and exchange insights!
Long
by Joegoldwave
Gold update: Bulls remain in control!Hello everyone! Let’s dive into today’s gold price analysis. Currently, spot gold is trading at $2,750 per ounce, marking an impressive increase of $53 from its intraday low of $2,697 during last night’s session. The rise in gold prices is primarily a direct result of a weakening U.S. dollar. Investors, including myself, are flocking to gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising uncertainties. Adding to this momentum is the looming threat of tariffs from President Donald Trump. His hints at imposing new tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, possibly as early as February 1, have sparked widespread concerns. In my view, these tariff threats are closely tied to inflation fears. Should Trump’s policies drive inflation higher, the Federal Reserve may be compelled to maintain elevated interest rates to manage price pressures. This scenario would further support gold’s price trajectory, making it a critical asset to watch in the coming trading sessions. On the technical front, as highlighted on the 1-hour chart, gold has successfully broken above the major resistance level of the ascending wedge channel. The price is currently consolidating above this boundary, with support from the EMA 34 and EMA 89, making a buy strategy more attractive than ever. Gold may experience a minor pullback or consolidation from the psychological level of $2,750, possibly testing the key 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, before resuming its upward trend. However, a decisive break above $2,750 would signal that the metal is primed for its next rally. Happy trading, and may your profits soar!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Joegoldwave
2
Gold → A Bear Wedge Pattern is forming. What's Next?OANDA:XAUUSD consolidating above the 2715 level, while simultaneously a bearish wedge pattern maintains the recent upward trend. Theoretically, the price will break the support level, creating a breakout at the 2715 zone. On the H1 timeframe, the support zone of 2715-2715 has formed and price is moving towards reacting at this support area. If buyers maintain this zone, price may retest the upper boundary of the rising channel or the important psychological level of 2748 before further decline. However, a breakthrough below this level will lead to an earlier price drop. Additionally, the USD is also consolidating above the support zone, creating a corresponding reaction in the gold market. Resistance levels: 2738, 2748, 2758 Support levels: 2716, 2703, 2693 I expect a correction following the false break of the 2715 level. Price consolidation below this level will lead to a deeper decline.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
GBP/USD--> Bulls pause, uptrend still intactFX:GBPUSD entered a temporary corrective phase after a two-day rally, pulling back to the 1.2300 region during the early European session on Wednesday. This move comes as the U.S. Dollar regains strength amid heightened demand for safe-haven assets, driven by growing trade war concerns under the Trump administration. On the 4H chart, despite the current dip, the broader structure remains bullish. The pair continues to trade above the EMA 34 and EMA 89, which are acting as dynamic support levels. Additionally, the formation of higher lows underscores the strength of the upward trend. Key Levels to Watch: 0.618 Fib retracement at 1.2288: A potential area for bulls to regroup. 0.5 Fib retracement at 1.22363: The next major support zone if the correction deepens. A sustained hold above these levels could fuel renewed buying momentum, potentially setting the stage for a continuation of the broader uptrend.
Long
by Joegoldwave
Gold---> Change in fundamentals. Strong resistanceDear friends, what are your thoughts on gold? Overall, gold has seen a significant increase yesterday, with a price rise surpassing the 2720 level. It is currently trading at a new high of 2728, showing strong gains for the day. So what reasons and factors have driven this? Regarding the influencing factors: Safe-haven money flows have strengthened following statements about tariff policies from former President Trump, along with expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to cut interest rates. These factors have put pressure on US Treasury yields, creating positive momentum for gold. However, risks from the mild recovery of the USD and optimistic risk sentiment in the market are somewhat restraining stronger upward momentum. Regarding new prospects for gold: On the H4 chart, according to Joe's personal view, gold is currently receiving strong support at 2620. Breaking below this level would lead to price decreases, while maintaining it would result in price increases. Upon careful observation, it's noteworthy that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending downward in the bullish zone, indicating potential momentum changes and the revival of correction possibilities. If a correction occurs, we cannot rule out the possibility that gold will utilize short-term momentum to test the area of interest at the upper boundary within the bullish channel, from which a decline may occur. Best regards, Joegoldwave!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Joegoldwave
COFORGE Options Trading Strategy: Breakout and Momentum-BasedIn this post, we’ll explore a couple of options strategies for COFORGE using the data for strike price 9000 . By closely monitoring the price action and key option data, we can make informed decisions that align with market trends. Here’s how we can approach trading this stock’s options effectively: Key Option Data Breakdown Call Short Covering: Indicates that the market sentiment is bullish as traders are closing their call positions, signaling a potential upward movement. Put Writing: A strong sign of bullishness as traders are actively writing puts, expecting the price to stay above the 9000 strike. Call and Put LTP (Last Traded Price): Calls LTP: 278.8 (indicating that calls are gaining traction). Puts LTP: 100.7 (a lower LTP for puts suggests lower demand). Open Interest (OI) and Change in OI: Calls OI Change: -47,850 (indicating a reduction in call positions due to short covering). Puts OI Change: +123,975 (signifying an increase in put writing, which reinforces the bullish sentiment). Strategy 1: Buying the Call or Put Based on the First 5-Minute Candle This strategy involves observing the price movement in the initial 5 minutes after the market opens and deciding whether to buy a call or put, depending on the price action and option data. When to Buy the Call or Put: If the first 5-minute candle shows a bullish move, consider buying the call option as the market sentiment appears to be in favor of upward movement. If the first 5-minute candle shows a bearish move, consider buying the put option. However, given the overall data showing strong put writing, this could be less likely. Why It Works: The first 5 minutes are crucial for gauging market sentiment, and with the data indicating strong bullishness (due to call short covering and put writing), a call option is likely to perform well. Considerations: This strategy requires watching for clear momentum during the first 5 minutes. If the market remains indecisive, it may be better to stay on the sidelines to avoid wasting premium. Strategy 2: Breakout Strategy – Buy Calls or Puts on the Break of Highs This strategy involves waiting for a breakout of the call or put’s high price. The breakout indicates a shift in momentum, and we’ll enter the trade based on whichever direction triggers first. When to Buy the Call: Watch for the call’s high price (389.85). If the call option breaks this level, it signals that the upward momentum is gaining strength. Buy the call to capitalize on the breakout. When to Buy the Put: If the call option doesn’t break its high and the price starts to show weakness, consider buying the put once it breaks its high (360.6). However, the data suggests that the market bias is bullish, so a call breakout is more likely. Why It Works: Breakouts are powerful signals of market momentum. Since the data shows heavy put writing, the call option is more likely to break its high first. This creates an opportunity to buy calls in a bullish trend. Considerations: Always monitor the volume and the price action for confirmation of the breakout. If both calls and puts test their highs without clear direction, consider waiting for a clearer signal. Conclusion: Given the strong bullish sentiment reflected in the options data—call short covering and put writing—the most reliable strategy is Strategy 2. Watch for a call breakout above 389.85 or a put breakout above 360.6 (if the call fails to break its high). The bullish bias suggests that the call option is more likely to outperform, but a breakout in either direction can trigger the strategy. Pro-Tip: Set a stop loss just below the breakout level to manage risk effectively. The market sentiment is heavily tilted towards bullishness, so a call option breakout is the most probable outcome.
NSE:COFORGEEducation
by ruelfernandes
Opening (IRA): XBI February 21st 85 Covered Call... for an 83.01 debit. Comments: Adding at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 83.01/share Max Profit: 1.99 ROC at Max: 2.40% 50% Max: 1.00 ROC at 50% Max: 1.20% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit point test.
AMEX:XBILong
by NaughtyPines
EURUSD → Efforts to shift the global trendFX:EURUSD breaking the boundaries of the prolonged downtrend channel, the pair is currently struggling below the resistance level at 1.0448, aiming for consolidation that could set the stage for a further rally of at least 100 to 200 pips. The global trend remains bearish, and it is still too early to confidently declare a reversal. Prices are facing significant pressure at the critical resistance level of 1.0448. However, signs of a potential breakout are beginning to emerge in this area. If the US dollar continues its corrective movement, EURUSD could have a chance to confirm a shift in the current trend. A decisive breakout above 1.0448, followed by consolidation, could pave the way for the next bullish momentum. Key levels to watch: Resistance levels: 1.0448, 1.0607 Support levels: 1.033, 1.0222 Currently, all eyes are on the critical resistance level of 1.0448. A breakout and stability above this level could provide an attractive entry point for long positions, setting the stage for the next phase of growth. Sincerely, Bentradegold!
Long
by Bentradegold
Gold prices continue to increase from the level 2675OANDA:XAUUSD continuing the uptrend in local and medium-term timeframes. The price is once again testing strong resistance levels on the H4 chart, with prospects for a breakout toward the 2700–2750 range. The US Dollar remains near weekly lows, touched after weaker-than-expected US PPI data on Tuesday, providing key support for the market, including gold. Attention now shifts to the upcoming CPI report, a critical release that could reshape market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. A stronger-than-expected CPI could increase pressure on gold, while a weaker report would bolster buying momentum. Additionally, the Fed’s hawkish stance is supported by the premise that Trump, beginning his second term next week, may drive inflation higher with protectionist policies. From a technical perspective, significant volume lies ahead, which could trigger a minor pullback toward support before the uptrend resumes. Key short-term levels to watch: Support: 2678, 2670 Resistance: 2690, 2697 However, in both the short and medium term, everything hinges on the upcoming scheduled news. Stay focused on these critical levels, traders! Best regards, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
GOLD → A very strong uptrend may get its continuationOANDA:XAUUSD is rising due to heightened geopolitical and political risks. A strong bullish trend is forming, where the price is testing the strong resistance level of 2726 and creating a false breakout of this resistance. The upward movement is gaining momentum following threats of tariffs by Trump, which have added to the negative market sentiment regarding risk. Trump has proposed imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada, as well as the EU and China, if trade agreements are not reached. These threats are supporting the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. However, the strengthening U.S. dollar and expectations of a Fed rate cut are limiting gold's further upward momentum. Trading in the coming days will depend on the overall market sentiment and Trump's tariff discussions. From a technical perspective, the false breakout of such a strong resistance level could temporarily slow the growth rate and lead to price consolidation or correction. However, there are technical nuances to consider. Currently, it's important to note the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (2716) and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (2711). These are significant liquidity zones that could prevent a deeper correction and push gold back into its bullish trend. A retest of the local highs at 2726 - 2732 would signal that the metal is ready for further upward movement.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Joegoldwave
USDJPY: Correction before dropping to 153.00-152.00Hello everyone, Ben here! USDJPY has yet to resume its upward trend. Rumors about potential actions from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are beginning to surface. Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to gain strength. The 158.46 level represents a strong resistance zone established by the sellers. Strong expectations for an additional interest rate hike by the BoJ this week are also lending support to the JPY. Overall, this influence appears relatively weak but could still provide significant backing for this currency pair. In theory, any upward movement of this major pair might be limited due to trade policy risks from the soon-to-be-inaugurated US President Donald Trump, which have constrained any significant bullish moves for the safe-haven JPY. The focus this week will be on Trump’s inauguration speech on Monday and the highly anticipated two-day BoJ policy meeting beginning on Thursday. From a technical standpoint, the price is attempting to break out of a major range and test key support levels. A false breakout around the 156.56 level could lead to the price targeting newly formed resistance zones. However, if the price settles below 156.56 or even drops under 155.95, it could trigger strong selling pressure sooner than expected. Best regards, Bentradegold!
Short
by Bentradegold
Weekly GEX Insights: 01/13 SPX dropTotal Correction? What Can an Options Trader Do in This Situation? How Far Might We Fall This Week? We’ll tackle these questions in this week’s options newsletter! It looks like the new president hasn’t even been sworn in yet, but the market is already reacting with fear to every statement he makes. Last week’s economic data didn’t help ease those concerns either. SPX Weekly Analysis Friday’s red candle set a bearish tone heading into this week. Everyone is predicting and pricing in a potential market apocalypse, and I keep getting the same question: “Greg, how far can we fall?” My answer remains the same: we can fall indefinitely—nobody can know for certain ahead of time. What we can do, however, is analyze our charts and use the our weekly GEX profile to identify the key levels, so we can better understand the market’s dynamics. Examining expirations through Friday, every NETGEX profile is negative , so we can expect volatile movements this week. We’re currently trading below the HVL level, which means that market makers are likely to move in tandem with retail traders. This typically results in bigger swings. We already saw this heightened volatility last week—just look at the size of the candles, and you can tell how quickly sentiment can shift. Below 5965 (the HVL level), we are in a high volatility zone what lies underneath? 1st Support Range: 5780–5800 5800: Currently the strongest PUT support level on the downside. A correction may pause here due to profit-taking. Right beneath this level is the previous gap-fill zone. Remember, these areas function as ranges rather than single lines, as I’ve highlighted down to 5780. This could easily be a take-profit target for traders playing gap fills—an approach that’s quite popular. 2nd Support Range: 5700–5650 (Very Strong) Starting at 5700: We encounter another robust PUT support zone. This area is reinforced by previous lows, previous highs, and the 4/8 grid boundary from our indicator. Even if nowhere else, many expect at least a local rebound to occur within these levels. Putting it all together, it’s clear that the weekly trading range is shaping up to be roughly between 5680 and 5965, expecting big & volatile moves. Remember, CPI and PPI data are coming out on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could trigger additional volatility. When looking at SPX, SPY, or /ES futures, my opinion is that the rapidly spiking implied volatility (IV) during a market drop, along with a PUT pricing skew, can present favorable opportunities for options traders. The distance to the strongest lower support zone is around 100–150 points, so you could: Trade directionally for the short term—hoping to be either right or wrong quickly, or Try to profit from the market situation in a more strategic way (which is what I typically do). Personally, I prefer the second approach: I’ll open short-term (a few days) credit put ratio spreads for a small credit, which gives me a wide breakeven range and a big “tent” on the downside.
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
Opening (IRA): IBIT February 28th 49.5 Covered Call... for a 47.52 debit. Comments: High IV/IVR. Back into IBIT on a little bit of weakness here, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. The March monthly is still a bit long in duration for my tastes, so going with a weekly. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.52/share Max Profit: 1.98 ROC at Max: 4.17% 50% Max: .99 ROC at 50% Max: 2.09% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit test, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at break evens better than what I currently have on.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by NaughtyPines