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EURUSD: Struggling to maintain the 1.115 peak amid USD pressureHello dear friends! Recently, EURUSD has faced difficulties in maintaining the peak of 1.115. The bullish momentum of EURUSD has been hindered by the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, which again shows that the strength of the U.S. economy has recovered, leading to an increase in the USD, putting significant pressure on EUR/USD. As mentioned on the 4-hour chart, although the bullish trend on the fundamental basis is still technically supported, there are signs indicating a potential peak forming at 1.115. The current support level is around 1.095. If this level is broken, EURUSD may continue to decline, potentially reaching the 1.083 mark, coinciding with the EMA test of EURUSD. If you find this information useful, please leave a like and follow Toro for the latest updates!
Short
by FX-Toro
XAUUSD under selling pressure: Will Gold’s downtrend continue?At the end of the last trading session, XAUUSD continued its downward trend, currently quoted at 3037 USD, corresponding to a 2.46% decline on the day. The main reason for this decline is the escalating trade war, which has raised concerns about a global economic recession, leading to panic and a sell-off in gold to cover losses from other assets. Additionally, the recovery of the USD during the day also put pressure on gold. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that President Donald Trump's new tariffs are "larger than expected" and that the new tax policies could have stronger-than-anticipated effects on the U.S. economy, increasing inflation and slowing economic growth. Therefore, the current environment remains risky for XAUUSD, and as long as the resistance levels within the downward trend channel are protected by the sellers, our target price will be limited to the lower boundary of the descending channel. What about you? Do you think gold will continue to fall?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Garygoldtrader
GOLD --> Reducing "shock" makes many people bewilderedHello, dear friends, it's great to see you again to discuss gold today. Yesterday, gold just experienced a "shocking" price drop. The precious metal plummeted vertically from 3136 to 3015 USD, equivalent to more than 800 pips in just a few hours when the market announced the news. The recent continuous decline in gold is believed to be due to the release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Specifically, the positive Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report with 228,000 jobs (forecast of 135,000) created optimism about the U.S. economy, strengthening the USD and pushing gold prices down. Escalating trade tensions due to Trump's announcement of new tariffs also made traders worry about a global economic recession, leading to panic and gold sell-offs to cover losses from other assets. From a technical perspective, the decline in gold is marked by the formation of a price channel and signs of a reversal from the EMA 34, 89. The recent bottom formation is considered a short-term correction, and the current price adjustment is expected to continue until it reaches the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.5 - 0.618. We can expect gold to continue declining after this consolidation phase. Selling is the preferred option, my friends! What about you? Do you think gold will continue to fall?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FX-Toro
Opening (IRA): IWM May 16th 190/195/220/225 Iron Condor... for a 1.70 credit. Comments: I think I have more than enough long delta on at the moment, so opting to go nondirectional/delta neutral here. Selling the 25's and buying the wings out from there, collecting one-third the width of the wings in credit. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 3.30 Max Profit: 1.70 ROC at Max: 51.5% 50% Max: .85 ROC at 50% Max: 25.8% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in oppositional side on side test.
A
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TTD May 16th -70C/October 17th 32.5C LCD*... for a 26.10 debit. Comments: At or near 52-week lows. Buying the back month 90 delta and selling the front month that pays for all of the extrinsic in the long. (The October 17th 32.5C is shown at the 50 strike to fit it on the chart). Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 26.10 debit Break Even: 58.60/share Max Profit: 11.40 ROC at Max: 43.7% 10% Max: 2.61 ROC at 10% Max: 10.0% In this particular case, I'll look to take profit at 110% of what I put it on for and/or roll out the short call if it hits 50% max. Earnings are on 5/14, so my preference would be to take it off before then ... . * -- Long Call Diagonal.
NASDAQ:TTDLong
by NaughtyPines
Nifty Wkly Outlook: Market Volatility, Supprt Lvls & Possible Nifty ended the week at 22,904, marking a significant decline of 600 points from the previous week’s close. The index reached a high of 23,565 and a low of 22,857. As anticipated, the dragonfly doji formation from last week, coupled with concerns over Trump’s new tariff measures taking effect from April 2nd, contributed to global market jitters. These factors spooked investors and led to heightened volatility across the board. My initial forecast for Nifty's trading range this week was 24,000-23,000, but the lower end of that range was breached by 150 points, indicating increased downside pressure. Looking ahead, there is potential for Nifty to find support around the 22,600/22,400 zone, where it may consolidate and form a base to attempt a rebound towards the 24,000 level. However, if the index were to break below the critical support level of 21,964 (which, frankly, seems unlikely), a deeper correction towards 19,700 could unfold. * That said, I believe most of the negative news has already been priced in, and we could see a market recovery within the next 10-15days, depending on how the bulls respond to this pullback .* In the global markets, the S&P 500 has closed below its 100-week exponential moving average (WEMA) at 5,074, and if it falls below this week’s low of 5,069, we could see a further slide towards 4,750/4,800, representing a 6% drop from current levels. Should Nifty also correct by 6% from its current position, this aligns with a potential support zone around 21,900/22,000, making it an interesting technical level to watch. It will be crucial to monitor if the wounded bulls can stage a comeback or if the market will continue its downward trajectory. Stay tuned!
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
Opening (IRA): XBI May 16th -91C/October 17th 60C LCD*... for a 26.56 debit. Comments: Back in to XBI on weakness, buying the back month 90 delta and selling the front month that pays for all of the extrinsic in the long. (The back month 60C is shown at the 80 so that it fits on the chart). Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 26.56 Break Even: 86.56 Max Profit: 4.44 ROC at Max: 16.72% 50% Max: 2.22 ROC at 50% Max: 8.36% Will generally look to take profit on the setup as a unit at 50% max, roll out the short call at 50% max to reduce my downside break even. * -- Long call diagonal.
AMEX:XBILong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): USO May 16th -75C/October 17th 45C LCD*... for a 26.25 debit. Comments: Buying the back month 90 delta and selling the front month strike that pays for all of the extrinsic in the long. (The long call is shown at a higher strike so that it fits on the chart). Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 26.25 Break Even: 71.25 Max Profit: 3.75 ROC at Max: 14.3% 50% Max: 1.88 ROC at 50%: 7.2% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max and/or roll out short call at 50% max to reduce down side break even. * -- Long call diagonal.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): UNG March 21st 18/June 20th 35 LPD*... for a 15.04 debit. Comments: Fading this natural gas move here with a long put diagonal, buying the back month -90 delta put and selling the front month 25. The 35 long put is shown at the 21 strike due to the 35 being off the chart. Metrics: Max Profit: 1.96 Buying Power Effect: 15.04 ROC at Max: 13.03% Break Even: 19.96 relative to 19.68 spot Will generally look to take profit at 110% of what I put it on for, roll out the short put on approaching worthless. * -- Long put diagonal.
AMEX:UNGShort
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TQQQ April 17th 60 Covered Call... for a 57.91 debit. Comments: Adding at strikes better than what I currently have on ... . Here, going lower net delta by selling the -84 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 2 x expected move 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 57.91/share Max Profit: 2.09 ROC at Max: 3.61% 50% Max: 1.05 ROC at 50% Max: 1.82% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TNA March 28th 35 Covered Call... for a 34.04 debit. Comments: Adding at strikes better than what I currently have on, selling the -84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Going lower net delta here as a personal choice, since I've already made goal for February, so don't see the need to take on my normal amount of risk. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 34.04/share Max Profit: .96 ROC at Max: 2.82% 50% Max: .48 ROC at 50% Max: 1.41% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add to the position at intervals if I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out my short call on approaching worthless if my take profit hasn't hit.
AMEX:TNALong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TNA April 17th 31 Covered Call... for a 29.98 debit. Comments: Starting a run at April (56 DTE) at strikes better than what I currently have on. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 29.98/share Max Profit: 1.02 ROC at Max: 3.40% 50% Max: .51 ROC at 50% Max: 1.70% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals assuming I can get in at strike prices better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
AMEX:TNALong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TNA April 17th 29 Covered Call... for a 28.28 debit. Comments: Adding at strikes better than what I currently have on. Selling the -84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 28.28/share Max Profit: .72 ROC at Max: 2.55% 50% Max: .36 ROC at 50% Max: 1.28% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, roll out short call in the event my take profit is not hit.
AMEX:TNALong
by NaughtyPines
BTCUSDT: Signs of discounts are still noticeableBINANCE:BTCUSDT breaking below the support of the local rising wedge on the basis of a downtrend (falling wedge) has been formed. And now there is no reason for Bitcoin to move higher or to be honest: "Just focus on selling because the risk of buying at this moment is high due to the newly announced reciprocal tariffs by President Trump, highlighting the increasing risk of Bitcoin in relation to macroeconomic uncertainties. I think we will drop much lower than 76,000 USD, as you may know from my previous analysis." If you find this information useful, please leave a like and follow Gary for the latest updates!
Short
by Garygoldtrader
Opening (IRA): SPXL March 21st 154 Covered Call... for a 151.04 debit. Comments: Selling the -84 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. (In all honesty, this is just an attempt to keep my theta/net liquidity ratio above .05, which is kind of the minimum of where I like to have it). Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 151.04/share Max Profit: 3.96 ROC at Max: 1.96% 50% Max: 1.98 ROC at 50% Max: .98
AMEX:SPXLLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SOXL March 21st 29 Covered Call... for a 26.85 debit. Comments: High IV; starter position. Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 26.85 Max Profit: 2.15 ROC at Max: 8.01% 50% Max: 1.08 ROC at 50% Max: 4.00% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at better strikes/better break evens than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call if take profit is not hit.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SOXL May 16th 17 Covered Call... for a 15.68 debit. Comments: Laddering out a smidge here, selling the -84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 15.68 Max Profit: 1.32 ROC at Max: 8.42% 50% Max: .66 ROC at 50% Max: 4.21% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by NaughtyPines
7
Opening (IRA): SMCI April 17th 34 Covered Call... for a 32.13 debit. Comments: High IVR/IV. Selling the -84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 2 x expected move 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 32.13/share Max Profit: 1.87 ROC at Max: 5.82% 50% Max: .94 ROC at 50% Max: 2.91% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call if take profit is not hit.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by NaughtyPines