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USD/JPY – Retesting key resistance before declineThe market is undergoing a correction after breaking its bullish structure. The weakening US Dollar (USD) has created favorable conditions for other assets, including the Japanese Yen (JPY). USD/JPY is currently retesting the previously broken trendline following a strong downward impulse. On Thursday, the Yen reached its highest level in 10 weeks, pushing USD/JPY down to 149.5. Escalating trade tensions driven by Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies have led investors to seek safe-haven assets. Additionally, expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike have further strengthened JPY’s position in the market. In the short term, USD/JPY may continue a corrective rebound, testing the 0.618 - 0.5 Fibonacci retracement zone before resuming its downward movement.
Short
by Bentradegold
Opening (IRA): TQQQ March 21st 69 Covered Call... for a 67.07 debit Comments: Not finished with March yet ... . Taking less risk here than I would ordinarily do to give me more room to be wrong, selling the -84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 67.07 debit Max Profit: 1.93 ROC at Max: 2.88% 50% Max: .97 ROC at 50% Max: 1.44% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at break evens better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out my short call if my take profit is not hit.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SOXL March 28th 20 Covered Call... for a 18.91 debit. Comments: I wanted to take advantage of this little bit of weakness here, but at less risk than what I ordinarily take, giving me more "room to be wrong." Here, selling the -84 delta calls against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short calls. Additionally, it's at strikes better than what I currently have on ... . Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 18.91 Max Profit: 1.09 ROC at Max: 5.76% 50% Max: .55 ROC at 50% Max: 2.88%
AMEX:SOXLLong
by NaughtyPines
2
EURUSD: Attempting to change the trendHello dear friends, Ben here! Currently, EURUSD is attempting to capture recovery due to the dollar's adjustment. The price is forming a reaction from the resistance channel consolidation before breaking out and growing further. Accordingly, after breaking through the trend channel resistance level, the price has moved into a consolidation phase around the range of 1.053 to 1.021. Within this, the price is testing the resistance level of 1.038. From this, we can argue that the market is still working to change its trend and become stronger against the dollar's adjustment. Resistance levels: 1.038, 1.053 Support levels: 1.033, 1.021 Emphasizing the resistance level of 1.038, with confirmation of consolidation above this level, there will be nothing stopping EURUSD from further growth. Best regards, Bentradegold!
Long
by Bentradegold
USDCHF: The battle of 0.9000 - Sell or wait?Hello everyone, Ben here! USDCHF previously broke its uptrend as the fundamental landscape shifted, and the dollar entered a correction phase. Clearly, sellers are in control, as illustrated on the chart. Fundamentally, the situation is becoming more complex due to the tariff war initiated by Trump, with European countries responding in kind. Economic risks are rising. Additionally, with rumors of rate cuts from Trump and Powell, the dollar has entered a correction phase, which has had a positive impact on the forex market. From a technical perspective, the 0.9000 level plays a crucial role, as it represents a strong zone. If sellers manage to keep the price below this level, within the selling zone, it will confirm further downside movement. I also cannot rule out the possibility of a retest of the previous breakout range before a deeper decline. Emphasizing the 0.9000 level! Best regards, Bentradegold!
Short
by Bentradegold
Market Update: Nifty Faces Bearish Pressure, 17-21st feb Nifty closed at 22,929 this week, marking a decline of 630 points from the previous week's close. The index reached a high of 23,568 and a low of 22,774. As highlighted in my previous post, the bearish sentiment in Nifty remains intact, as both the monthly and weekly timeframes show negative trends. Until there is a significant reversal on these timeframes, the bearish outlook is expected to continue. Looking ahead to next week, I anticipate Nifty will move within a range of 23,450 to 22,400 . The 22,300/22,400 zone offers strong support, and if this level is breached, we could see Nifty heading towards the 21,800 levels. Given this volatility, Nifty might not be the ideal index for small investors, particularly those heavily invested in mid and small-cap stocks. Let’s now take a closer look at the mid-cap and small-cap indices. The Mid-Cap Index is currently near its key support level of 48,700 on the monthly chart. If it manages to hold this support next week, a potential reversal could follow, offering some relief to investors. On the other hand, the Small-Cap Index is still far from its crucial support of 14,500, which suggests that we could witness further downside of 4-5% in this segment . This could add more pressure on small-cap stocks, which are already facing a tough environment. On a global front, the S&P 500 has finally broken through the strong resistance at 6,100 and closed above this level. If it manages to sustain above 6,100, we could see it reach 6,225 or even 6,376. This could potentially provide some tailwinds for the Indian markets, but for now, it seems that the Indian market remains under the tight grip of bearish forces. In conclusion, while there are some signs of potential recovery in specific indices, the overall sentiment remains cautious. Investors should stay vigilant, especially in mid and small-cap segments, as the road ahead could be bumpy.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by ssudhirsharma11
Opening (IRA): IBIT March 21st 49 Covered Call... for a 47.32 debit. Comments: Adding to my positions at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.32 Max Profit: 1.68 ROC at Max: 3.55% 50% Max: .84 ROC at 50% Max: 1.78% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call should my take profit not be hit.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): COIN March 21st 220 Covered Call... for a 215.96 debit. Comments: High IV + weakness. Selling the -85 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Going lower net delta due to the shorter duration (35 DTE). Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 215.96/share Max Profit: 4.04 ROC at Max: 1.87% 50% Max: 2.02 ROC at 50% Max: .94 Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): IBIT March 21st 52 Covered Call... for a 49.83 debit. Comments: Back into IBIT, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 49.83/share Max Profit: 2.17 ROC at Max: 4.35% 50% Max: 1.09 ROC at 50% Max: 2.18% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call if my take profit is not hit.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TNA March 21st 37 Covered Call... for a 36.06 debit. Comments: On second thought ... . Maybe I'm not done with March yet. Here, selling the 84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 2x expected move 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. This is less risk than what I ordinarily take, but still has the >2.0% ROC at max I like to see out of these setups. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 36.06 Max Profit: .94 ROC at Max: 2.61% 50% Max: .47 ROC at 50% Max: 1.32%
AMEX:TNALong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TMF March 28th 36 Covered Call... for a 35.08 debit. Comments: Selling the -75 delta call against shares on weakness to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 35.08 Max Profit: .92 ROC at Max: 2.62% 50% Max: .46 ROC at 50% Max: 1.31% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have, and/or roll out the short call on approaching worthless if my take profit is not hit.
AMEX:TMFLong
by NaughtyPines
GOLD--> Test ATH 2942. Are buyers ready to act ?OANDA:XAUUSD testing ATH levels which could trigger growth momentum. The target of 3000 is getting closer day by day. Imminent in the near future... Metals are consolidating after the price surge, maintaining an upward trend. Supported by Trump's tax plan and Fed easing expectations. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) and US Dollar Index (DXY) are significantly weaker. Markets are reacting to the delay in tariff implementation and comments from Trump and Powell about the need for interest rate cuts (requiring weeks or months before implementation), which has supported gold. Ahead lies potential profit-taking and impact from US Retail Sales data for January to be released. Resistance levels: 2942, 2950 Support levels: 2929, 2923, 2908 Emphasis on key support levels. From there, price will realize growth potential. I don't rule out the possibility of retesting 2929-2922 before buyers continue their action. Best regards, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
3
Gold → Accelerating Upwards NorthOANDA:XAUUSD returning to the trend following news (inflation). The northbound train may continue from 2907. Upcoming unemployment claims and PPI data. Gold is supported by uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs and economic data from the United States. The Fed remains hawkish due to rising inflation, pushing bond yields higher and driving prices down to $2,865 briefly. However, buyers quickly returned, pushing prices back up. Meanwhile, traders are awaiting PPI data which could influence Fed policy. Technically, prices are consolidating in the buying zone compared to key points at 2900 and 2907. If buyers can hold and strengthen above the 2907 resistance level, gold could update ATH in the medium term. Additionally, focus is on 2918 - 2920. Price consolidation above this zone will also support prices. Best regards, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
GOLD → Accelerating northward. Targeting $3000Hello dear friends, Ben here! Today, gold continues its strong upward momentum. Taking inspiration from previous growth - high economic risk. The price is moving increasingly closer to the previously anticipated mark of $3000. Accordingly, gold broke above the trend channel boundary and the $2850 mark at the start of the week in the US, but growth is being limited by the strengthening dollar due to escalating trade risks. Trump announced on Sunday that he would impose new 25% tariffs on all imported steel and aluminum products, exacerbating the pain for the Euro and commodity-linked Australian Dollar (AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD), thereby channeling new buying interest into the safe-haven currency - the US Dollar. Gold prices also benefited further from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) expanding its gold reserves for the third consecutive month in January and expectations of more stimulus measures from China. However, in the coming days, USD could extend its recovery if risk flows intensify or markets return to profit-taking on USD short positions before US CPI inflation data is released on Wednesday. Moderate expectations from the Fed, hopes for Chinese economic stimulus, and lurking trade war risks will help limit gold's downside. Technically, we are currently monitoring around the psychological area of 2904 and the main support level is 2882. Resistance level: 2904 (unconfirmed) Support levels: 2882, 2870, 2853 Bulls seem to remain hesitant around the 2904 area with prices potentially continuing their upward trend without any reversals. But! The most likely scenario at this point is a false break of 2904, with a short-term correction to retest liquidity before bulls head northward.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
1
GOLD → Heading into tonight: Is 3K still a valid target ?OANDA:XAUUSD has approached the 2950 level but has yet to reach the key psychological threshold. The current price action indicates a correction phase, allowing the market to rest and accumulate liquidity ahead of key news releases, with a potential move northward on the horizon. Gold is currently testing the 2900 level following Trump’s new tariff announcement, maintaining strong demand. The primary focus remains on Powell’s speech and the U.S. inflation data, as these will be the key factors influencing expectations for a Fed rate cut, which is the main driving force behind gold’s movement... Theoretically, the situation remains unclear as gold approaches strong support levels. From a technical perspective, a correction is a logical scenario in a strong market. Technically speaking, prices cannot rise indefinitely; they require energy, which is replenished through seller pressure. Currently, key focus areas include 2912, Fibonacci 0.618, and Fibonacci 0.5 levels. Resistance levels: 2912, 2930 Support levels: 2901 (Fibonacci 0.618), 2888 (Fibonacci 0.5) Powell’s speech, scheduled for tonight, and tomorrow’s U.S. inflation data will be the main catalysts. High volatility is inevitable. However, overall economic conditions continue to support this precious metal. Before moving higher, gold may first test 2901 and 2888. The target remains within the familiar range of 2950 to 3000. Best regards, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
1