Jade Lizard on PLTR - My 53DTE Summer Theta PlayMany of you — and yes, I see you in my DMs 😄 — are trading PLTR, whether using LEAPS, wheeling, or covered calls.
I took a closer look. And guess what?
📈 After a strong move higher, PLTR was rejected right at the $143 call wall — pretty much all cumulative expiries cluster resistance there
Using the GEX Profile indicator, scanning all expirations:
After a brief dip, the market is repositioning bullish
Squeeze zone extends up to 150
The most distant GEX level is sitting at 160
On the downside, 130 is firm support, with some presence even at 120 — the market isn’t pricing in much risk below that
📉 From a technical standpoint:
We’re near all-time highs
125 (previous ATH) and 100 are key support levels
The OTM delta curve through August is wide, and the call side is paying well — with a current call pricing skew
🔬 IVx is at 57, trending lower + call pricing skew📉 IV Rank isn't particularly high, but the directional IVx matters more here
💡 Summer Theta Play: Jade Lizard on PLTR
Since I’ll be traveling this summer and don’t want to micromanage trades, I looked for something low-touch and high-confidence — and revisited an old favorite: the Jade Lizard.
If you're not familiar with the strategy, I recommend checking out Tastytrade's links and videos on Jade Lizards.
🔹 Why this setup?
Breakeven sits near $100, even with no management
On TastyTrade margin:~$1800 initial margin ~$830 max profit
53 DTE — plenty of time for theta to work
Earnings hit in August — I plan to close before then
Covers all bullish GEX resistance zones
Quickly turns profitable if IV doesn’t spike
Highly adjustable if needed
My conclusion: this strategy covers a much broader range than what the current GEX Profile shows across all expirations — so by my standards, I consider this to be a relatively lower-risk setup compared to most other symbols right now with similar theta strategies.
🔧 How would I adjust if needed?
If price moves up:
I’d roll the short put up to collect additional credit
Hold the call vertical as long as the curve supports it
If price drops:
Transition into a put ratio spread
Either extend or remove the call vertical depending on conditions
🛑 What’s the cut loss plan?
I have about 20% wiggle room on the upside, so I’m not too worried — but if price rips through 160 quickly, I’ll have to consider early closure.
If that happens, the decision depends on time:
If late in the cycle with low DTE:→ Take a small loss & roll out to next month for credit
If early with lots of DTE remaining:→ Consider converting to a butterfly, pushing out the call vertical for a small debit→ Offset this with credit from rolling the put upward
As always — stay sharp, manage your risk, and may the profit be with you.
See you next week!– Greg @ TanukiTrade
Optionsstrategies
DLTR: Range + Flow SetupDLTR – Trading Within Range Amid Strategic Evolution & Flow Anomalies
Dollar Tree (DLTR) continues to show strength post–Q1 FY2025 earnings, breaking higher as it pushes through its multi-price format transition and nears the Family Dollar divestiture. The stock is outperforming key peers (DG, TJX, COST) and trading above both the 50- and 200-day MAs — a signal of growing institutional confidence.
On the fundamentals: Net sales (ex-Family Dollar) jumped 11.3% to $4.64B, comps grew 5.4%, and gross margin expanded to 35.6% despite transitional headwinds. Full-year EPS was guided up to $5.15–$5.65, reflecting management’s conviction in sustained growth. Analysts responded by revising EPS to $6.12 (+13.5% YoY), validating the turnaround thesis.
Valuation-wise, DLTR remains notably underpriced. It’s trading at 16.66x forward earnings — well below the retail average and far cheaper than peers like COST (51.1x), TJX (26.9x), and DG (19.0x). The gap is especially compelling given DLTR’s momentum and shift toward higher-margin discretionary sales via the “3.0” format.
Unusual Activity Insight:
What caught my attention was a cluster of unusual options activity suggesting a short-term strangle strategy centered around the July 18 expiration — likely positioning for the stock to stay range-bound while capturing premium from elevated IV post-earnings. The structure and OI shifts imply smart money is playing both ends of the current price band.
Trading Range and Setup:
DLTR has been respecting a range between $92 and $102, consolidating after its post-earnings move. That behavior, combined with the flow signals, sets the stage perfectly for a defined-risk premium play.
My Approach: Iron Condor (July 18 Expiration)
- Sell 100 Call / Buy 105 Call
- Sell 95 Put / Buy 90 Put
This iron condor aligns with the projected range, offering attractive premium while keeping defined exposure. With theta working in our favor and volatility elevated, it’s a setup that thrives in quiet bullish chop — exactly what we’ve seen since the Q1 breakout
MSTR Bulls Reload on BTC ConvictionMSTR – Institutional Flow + BTC Correlation + Bull Vertical Spread Setup
MicroStrategy (MSTR), operating as “Strategy,” just went full throttle—adding 10,100 BTC between June 9–15 at an average of $104,080 per coin, totaling over $1.05B. With this, they now hold 592,100 BTC (>$63B), solidifying their status as the largest Bitcoin-holding public company. That’s a bold move amid the ongoing Israel-Iran macro uncertainty, signaling confidence, not caution.
This latest BTC buy was funded via STRK and STRF ATM offerings and the $979.7M STRD preferred IPO. Since initiating their Bitcoin treasury strategy in 2020, MSTR has soared over 3,000%, and they’re projecting a 25% BTC yield for 2025 after already clocking in at 13.7% YTD.
🔎 Flow Watch
Institutional activity around current price levels has been sharp—confirming conviction behind the recent momentum. With BTC hovering at critical support, I’m eyeing a potential short-term bullish reversal. Given the tight correlation between BTC and MSTR, the setup looks primed.
🎯 My Strategy
I’m targeting a bull vertical spread—buying the 382.5 call and selling the 385 call. This defined-risk, limited-reward setup positions me to capture near-term upside if BTC begins a rebound and MSTR follows suit. The tight strike range and elevated IV make it ideal for a premium-efficient directional bet.
MKC McCormick & Company Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MKC McCormick & Company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 85usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2026-1-16,
for a premium of approximately $1.40.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GOLD: Retesting support will lead to a riseHello to all beloved traders, Lucas_Reid here!
Gold has now broken upward from the wedge and confirmed recent bullish momentum. A major player is building a position above the wedge and preparing for distribution. But the main question is: how long will it last?
Fundamentally, the recent gold surge was triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East and large-scale missile exchanges between Iran and Israel – drawing safe-haven flows. Interestingly, gold pulled back slightly by the end of Friday’s trading session, hovering around $3,368 at the time of writing (a reasonable move after the spike). However, the broader macro backdrop still favors gold in the medium term, with persistent demand from central banks and ongoing geopolitical risks providing support.
Additionally, the US dollar is in a global downtrend, and traders are awaiting a decision from Powell (who is under pressure from Trump to cut rates).
From a technical perspective, if we zoom out, we can see buyers in control, suggesting continuation. Price has broken out of recent consolidation. The volatility that followed was then absorbed and reacted above the breakout level. Theoretically, we can speculate that big players are building positions above the current wedge. This can only suggest potential future deployment (distribution).
BUT failure to hold above this level could invalidate the bullish scenario and increase the chance of a pullback to the lower boundary of the channel.
Respectfully,
Lucas_Reid!
Opening (IRA): SMH August 15th 215 Short Put... for a 2.50 credit.
Comments: A starter position in the semiconductor ETF on a smidge of weakness here, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
Will generally look to add at intervals if I can get it at a strike better than what I currently have on.
DG Trading Setup: Capitalizing on RangeDollar General has experienced a stabilization phase following its Q1 2025 results, with same-store sales increasing 2.4% and revenue growing 5.3% to $10.4 billion. The company has regained traction in the discount retail space, mitigating previous challenges related to shrink and operational inefficiencies.
Institutional Flow & Market Positioning
Recent institutional flow highlights large orders in DG’s 115 call and 110 put, signaling either:
- A range-bound setup, where smart money expects the stock to stay between $110-$115 in the near term.
- Potential volatility, with institutions hedging both directions ahead of an unexpected move.
Considering the ATR (18) and standard deviation (7.353), this aligns with a low-breakout probability, making range-based strategies the optimal play. The absence of earnings between now and July further supports sideways movement expectations.
Options Trade Setup: Iron Condor
To capitalize on premium decay and IV contraction, I’m structuring an iron condor:
- Sell 115 Call / Buy 120 Call
- Sell 110 Put / Buy 105 Put
This strategy ensures limited risk while collecting premium in a high-probability range trade.
MU Options Insight: Bulls Eyeing $123Fundamental Overview
Micron Technology's $200 billion expansion plan aligns with the broader push for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. The company is investing $150 billion in fabrication plants across Idaho, New York, and Virginia, while $50 billion is allocated for high-bandwidth memory packaging and R&D. This move strengthens Micron’s position in AI-driven demand and supply chain resilience.
The CHIPS and Science Act funding of $6.4 billion and eligibility for the Advanced Manufacturing Investment Credit further bolster Micron’s financial outlook. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra emphasized that this expansion will create tens of thousands of jobs and reinforce U.S. tech leadership.
Technical Analysis
Micron’s stock is currently near a 12-month high, up 37% year to date. The momentum remains strong, with institutional activity suggesting bullish sentiment.
- Options Flow Insight: A vertical bull spread was spotted in Times & Sales, with 118 strike contracts executed on the ask and 123 strike contracts executed on the bid simultaneously. This suggests a bullish stance, as traders anticipate further upside.
- Expiration Consideration: The June 20 expiration (4 days away) indicates a short-term bullish outlook, likely targeting a breakout above $123.
- Institutional Positioning: The 500 additional contracts at 118 reinforce the bullish bias. If MU moves beyond $123, traders holding the spread still profit, confirming strong conviction in upside potential.
META June 2025 Monthly Support & Resistance Lines Valid till EOMOverview:
The purple lines serve as support and resistance levels for META stock throughout the month of June. When the price approaches these lines from either the bottom or the top, I will consider taking long or short positions in META stock, depending on the direction of the price movement.
Trading Timeframes
I usually use 30-minute candlesticks to swing trade options by holding 2-3 days max. Some can also use 3hr or 4hrs to do 2 weeks max swing trades for massive up or down movements.
I post these 1st week of every month and they are valid till the end of the month.
TSLA June 2025 Monthly Support & Resistance Lines Valid till EOMOverview:
The purple lines serve as support and resistance levels for TSLA stock throughout the month of June. When the price approaches these lines from either the bottom or the top, I will consider taking long or short positions in TSLA stock, depending on the direction of the price movement.
Trading Timeframes
I usually use 30min candlesticks to swing trade options by holding 2-3 days max. Some can also use 3hr or 4hrs to do 2 weeks max swing trades for massive up or down movements.
I post these 1st week of every month and they are valid till the end of the month.
Extra:
I added Blue Lines which are weekly line for June 16th to 20th.
Why Recursion Pharmaceuticals RXRX Could Be the NVDA of BiotechRecursion Pharmaceuticals RXRX is rapidly emerging as a transformative force in drug discovery, leveraging cutting-edge artificial intelligence and automation to industrialize and accelerate the development of new medicines. Here’s why RXRX could be the next NVIDIA (NVDA) of biotechnology and why its stock could soar by year-end:
1. AI-Powered Drug Discovery Platform with Unmatched Scale
Recursion integrates AI, machine learning, automation, and advanced data science to decode biology and chemistry, dramatically reducing the time and cost of drug discovery.
The company’s proprietary BioHive-2 supercomputer, built with NVIDIA’s DGX H100 systems, is the most powerful AI computing system wholly owned by any biopharma company, enabling Recursion to process biological data at unprecedented speeds.
By reducing the number of compounds needed for clinical candidates from thousands to just 136–200 and shrinking development timelines to under a year, RXRX is fundamentally changing the economics of pharmaceutical R&D.
2. Strategic Partnerships and Industry Validation
RXRX has forged high-profile partnerships with pharmaceutical giants such as Bayer, Roche/Genentech, Takeda, and Sanofi, validating its platform and unlocking milestone payments that could exceed $20 billion over time.
The company’s collaboration with AI biotech Exscientia in a $700 million deal further cements its leadership in the AI-driven drug discovery space, creating a pipeline of 10 clinical and preclinical programs with hundreds of millions in potential milestones.
NVIDIA itself holds over 7.7 million shares of RXRX, making it one of NVIDIA’s largest biotech investments and a strong endorsement of Recursion’s technology and long-term vision.
3. Explosive Revenue Growth and Strong Cash Position
Analysts forecast Recursion’s revenue to grow at a 65% CAGR from $58.8 million in 2024 to $263 million by 2027, far outpacing the broader biotech sector.
The company ended 2024 with over $600 million in cash, providing a solid runway for continued investment in R&D, platform expansion, and clinical trials.
Wall Street analysts expect more than 50% upside in RXRX stock over the next 12–24 months, with multiple clinical milestones and partnership announcements as near-term catalysts.
4. Disruptive Vision: The “Virtual Cell” and Beyond
RXRX is building toward a “virtual cell,” where AI models can simulate biological processes with such accuracy that wet lab experiments shift from data generation to validating computational predictions.
This approach could dramatically improve drug development success rates, addressing the industry’s notorious 95% failure rate and positioning Recursion as the go-to platform for next-generation drug discovery.
5. Market Sentiment and Institutional Support
RXRX has caught the attention of growth investors and major funds, including Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, further boosting its profile and liquidity.
Recent stock surges and high trading volumes reflect growing investor confidence in Recursion’s disruptive potential and the broader AI-in-biotech trend.
SPY (S&P500) - Price Testing Support Trendline - Daily ChartSPY (S&P500 ETF) price has just closed below $600 and is currently under a support trendline.
If price cannot breakout above the $600 and $605 resistance level this month, a pullback could occur down to the support zone.
SPY price could potentially pullback to various levels of support due to:
-USA domestic conflict
-International military conflicts
-Technical chart bearish divergence
-USA federal reserve interest rate news
-Government and corporate news
Support Levels: $595, $590, $585, $580.
Resistance Levels: $600, $605, $610, $615.
The 50EMA/200EMA Golden Cross is still on-going, and support prices of $580 and $568 have yet to be tested significantly.
[06/09] [GEX] Weekly SPX OutlookLast week’s outlook played out quite well — as anticipated, SPX hit the 6000 level, closing exactly there on Friday. This was the realistic target we highlighted in last week's idea.
🔭 SPX: The Bigger Outlook
It's difficult to say whether the rising SPX trend will continue. We're still in the "90-day agreement period" set by the administration, and so far, the market has shown resilience, avoiding deeper pullbacks like the one we saw in April.
With VIX hovering around 17–18, we’ve reached a zone where further SPX upside would require volatility. For the index to continue rising meaningfully, it needs to reverse the current bearish macro environment, and that can only happen with strong buying momentum — not a slow grind.
The parallel downward channel drawn a few weeks ago is still technically valid. Even a short 100-point squeeze would fit within this structure before a larger move down unfolds.
GEX levels give us useful clues heading into Friday. We're currently in a net positive GEX zone across all expirations, giving bulls a structural advantage, just like last week.
As of Monday’s premarket, SPX spot is at 6009.The Gamma Flip zone is between 5975–5990, with a High Volume Level (HVL) at 5985.
🔍 Let’s zoom in with our GEX levels — this gives us a deeper view than our GEX Profile indicator for TradingView alone.
🐂 🟢 If SPX moves higher, the following are logical profit-taking zones:
6050 (Delta ≈ 33)
6075 (Delta ≈ 25)
6100 (Delta ≈ 17)
🎯 Targeting above 6100 currently feels irrational — for instance, the next major gamma squeeze zone is at 6150, but that corresponds to a delta 6 level (≈94% chance the price closes below it), so I won’t aim that high yet.
🐻🔴 In a bearish scenario:
5975 and 5950 are the first nearby support zones (Deltas 30 and 38).
If momentum picks up, 5900 becomes reachable quickly, even if it's technically a 17-delta distance — because that’s deep in the negative GEX zone.
📅 Don’t forget: On Wednesday premarket, we’ll get Core Inflation Rate data — a key macro risk that could shake things up, regardless of TSLA drama fading.
📌 SPX Weekly Trading Plan Conclusion
Whatever your bias, keep cheap downside hedges in place. We've been rising for a long time, and even if SPX breaks out of the descending channel temporarily, resistance and the gamma landscape may pull price back swiftly.
[GEX] TSLA Breakdown & Options Trade Idea for 39DTELast week, TSLA dropped hard, likely due to political tensions. Let’s not forget — just a month ago, their EVs were showcased at the White House entrance...
In the span of 30 hours, TSLA fell -22% (see red line below), while SPX barely reacted. Why? Because both realized and implied volatility dropped — remember VIX is around 17/18.
This sharp TSLA drop already seemed overdone, which helped fuel the +5% bounce on Friday.Most TSLA options positions are near-term and still show negative sentiment — but further expirations grow increasingly bullish.
🔍 If you use options GEX matrix , you’ll see the bearish hedging flow gradually turns more neutral-to-bullish.
Most cumulative support/resistance zones lie between 250–340, with spot currently just under the chop zone.
🧠 TSLA Trade Idea
It’s been a while since I posted a neutral Iron Condor, but TSLA might be an exception.
Despite last week’s IV spike, call pricing skew still dominates across expirations — as seen in our Options Overlay indicator.This tells me the market doesn’t fear TSLA crashing below 200. So, I’m aiming to capture premium on the July 18th expiry without day trading.
I’m thinking of something simple, well-manageable in either direction.To refine leg placement, I use visual GEX zones.
🐻🔴 Downside:
Strong put support at 250
Gradual support layers up to 280
🐂 🟢 Upside:
Target area: 340–350 for the July 18 expiry.
📅 Closing the Trade:I'll consider closing or adjusting at 21 DTE or when 50% max profit is hit — per TastyTrade’s studies.
🔁 Rolling Plan:IF short delta on one side drops below ~14 and price pulls away, I’ll roll the untested side to collect more credit.
🧑🏫 I’ll likely post trade management live in Discord for educational purposes.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
🦋 Bonus Idea: TSLA Broken Wing Butterfly
If you think TSLA has more downside, a Put Broken Wing Butterfly — like the one shown in my previous YT video — is also a great way to structure this trade using the same GEX levels.
There’s no single way to use Gamma Exposure — it’s the most actionable hedging signal we have. Combine it with your knowledge of strategies and you can trade almost any scenario.
One thing’s for sure — this market moves faster than ever.A single day of internal conflict wiped -22% off TSLA…The next morning, the market already moved on, so as always:
Trade Safe Out There!
Gold Update – Will Buyers Drive It to 3,485 USD?Great to see all traders again in today’s gold price discussion at the end of the trading session. LyngridTrading here!
Yesterday, gold dropped sharply, with the metal falling by 600 pips during the US session. However, by this morning, it quickly regained its upward momentum, supported by buying pressure around the 3,340 USD support zone.
Specifically, gold regained its momentum after the latest data on the US labor market was just released, showing that the number of initial state unemployment claims rose to 247,000 (seasonally adjusted) by the end of May 2025, according to the announcement from the U.S. Department of Labor. This figure is higher than expected, reflecting a weakening US labor market, which has increased expectations that the Fed will soon cut interest rates to support the economy.
From a technical perspective, as previously analyzed, gold holds a strong short-term technical advantage from the support zone around 3,340 USD. If buying pressure continues, there will be nothing stopping it from rising to 3,485 USD, in line with the idea scheduled at the same time yesterday.
XAUUSD: Bullish Structure Still Intact?Dear friends,
To begin this post, I want you to understand why I want to connect with the global TradingView community. Simply put, I want to share the value I have and listen to more perspectives from all of you. This helps build a stronger, more united community.
And what about you. What do you think of OANDA:XAUUSD hovering around 3,370 USD?
Let’s explore it together!
OANDA:XAUUSD is moving within a very clear ascending channel, with price action consistently respecting both the upper and lower boundaries. This indicates that the bullish structure is still being maintained and the buyers remain in control. The recent upward momentum further reinforces the belief that this trend could continue.
The price is currently approaching a key support zone, marked by the lower boundary of the channel and a previous demand area. If this zone holds, it could offer a strong re-entry opportunity for buyers. The projected bullish target is 3,485 USD, which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel and represents a reasonable upside objective. This is the area I will closely monitor to find a trend-following buy entry, as long as bullish momentum remains intact.
Of course, I do not dismiss the opposite scenario. Failure to hold this dynamic support may suggest that bullish momentum is weakening and could shift the short-term trend to neutral or bearish.
Let me know your thoughts or if you see it differently!
Navigating MSTR’s Price Swings: A Smart Options ApproachOverview
MicroStrategy (MSTR) has continued to capture market attention due to its aggressive Bitcoin strategy and significant stock price volatility. In 2025, MSTR surged 41% in one quarter but also reported a massive $4.22 billion net loss in Q1, raising concerns about long-term financial stability. Analysts remain divided, setting price targets ranging from $200 to $650, largely dependent on Bitcoin’s performance and broader market conditions.
Key Developments Impacting MSTR
✔ Bitcoin Exposure: MSTR maintains a large Bitcoin position, making its stock highly correlated to BTC’s price movements.
✔ AI Integration: The company is investing in AI-driven products, which could provide diversification outside of Bitcoin.
✔ Institutional View: Analysts remain split on MicroStrategy’s valuation due to its uncertain revenue model.
✔ Macro Volatility: Market-wide sentiment, interest rates, and crypto regulations will influence MSTR’s trajectory.
Options Strategy for the Week
🚀 Iron Condor Setup for June 6 Expiration
To capitalize on MSTR’s volatility while managing risk, an Iron Condor strategy is structured within a controlled range:
- Inner Range: Sell Calls at 395 and Puts at 335
- Coverage: Buy Calls at 415 and Puts at 315
✅ Objective: Profiting from sideways price movement while minimizing exposure to extreme volatility.
✅ Risk Management: If MSTR breaks above 415 or below 315, the long positions hedge against excessive losses.