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Gold todayHello everyone! Overall, Gold is trying to maintain its upward momentum from today's Asian session, despite the risk aversion from China. The weakness in the USD continues to provide momentum for gold. Currently, a cup with handle pattern has appeared, indicating a positive signal for the medium-term outlook. However, the important resistance level of $2,670 is a big challenge. If buyers can take advantage of the strong momentum from the $2,660 - $2,665 zone, supported by the 34 EMA that has not shown any signs of reversal, then gold could definitely break out to $2,680 in the short term.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ConanTradingFX
3
Gold prices continue to rise?Gold is struggling to capitalize on the positive momentum from Friday and is currently hovering around $2680. With clear signs of bullish momentum being shown by the 34 and 89 EMAs, there are no significant signs of a reversal yet. The next prediction is that gold will continue to trade in the range of $2683 to $2660. The $2660 level at the 89 EMA could be retested, but only in the short term for consolidation. The preferred direction remains an upward movement.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Bentradegold
EUR/USD should buy or sell ?Hello everyone! The EUR/USD pair has just broken a four-day losing streak and is currently hovering around 1.0840 in the Asian session on Friday. The recent decline has been largely driven by the strengthening of the US Dollar, with the greenback hitting a two-month high of 103.87 on Thursday. Despite the strong recovery, the market is now gradually shifting towards expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates soon, helping the EUR/USD pair recover slightly and minimize losses in the short term. As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD downtrend remains clear, however, the key support zone at 1.0810 and then 1.0777 is still holding. Moreover, a harmonic pattern has formed, signaling a potential reversal, at least towards the 1.0980 level, where confluence signals are emerging strongly. Do you think this pair could reverse and rise again soon? Don't miss out on the exciting trading opportunities that await!
by ConanTradingFX
USDJPY: Uptrend Remains IntactHello everyone! USD/JPY is finding fresh demand alongside the US Dollar in the Asian session on Thursday. New measures in the Chinese real estate market disappointed and strengthened the safe-haven greenback. The US Retail Sales data will now be in focus, and looks vulnerable. However, in the short term, with the trend still intact and because of the principle of "trend is your friend", Ben predicts that the price will correct slightly to test the 34 and 89 EMA before continuing to strengthen further in the near term. What do you think about this major pair today?
Long
by Bentradegold
Gold price increased sharply, reaching 2650 USDGold prices made an impressive reversal today, rising more than $25 to $2,635, after six consecutive sessions in the red. The recovery came on Thursday, as investors began to adjust their strategies based on a series of important economic data from the US. The CPI report showed signs of cooling inflation, while employment data reflected a weakening labor market. These signals have reinforced the belief that the Fed is on the right track in adjusting monetary policy. This is the factor that helped gold prices rebound, as investors saw a less tense economic environment, supporting safe havens like gold. With positive signals from the economy and confidence in the Fed's policies, gold is returning to an upward trend, opening up attractive opportunities for investors.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
Update latest gold price today.Gold prices continued to rise slightly on Tuesday as Treasury yields eased, while investors cautiously awaited more data for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's easing cycle. The 10-year yield fell as the day's report showed a slowdown in manufacturing activity in New York state. Accordingly, bond yields are putting slight pressure on gold. However, the advantage is still tilted towards a sideways or higher scenario for gold in the short term, assuming that both bond yields and the USD will decline. In the current environment, I appreciate the surprising strength of this precious metal. Gold has not succumbed to the strength of the USD and Treasury yields, and the rally continues to be simmering.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
GBPUSD Ben hello everyone! On the 1-hour chart, the downtrend continues. After losing momentum from 1.306, GBPUSD has continued to decline. With the market looking unfavorable and the Fed’s interest rate cut policy unclear, GU has lost value. The next target for the next decline is seen at 1.2950, ​​which is a strong psychological barrier. However, the possibility of a rebound cannot be ruled out if the bulls manage to push the price up from 1.2980 as mentioned on the chart.
Short
by Bentradegold
EURUSD continues downtrend below 1.0900Dear Friends, You may be wondering why the price has fallen so sharply. In international market news: - The US Dollar (USD) continued to appreciate, albeit modestly, encouraging the US Dollar Index (DXY) to maintain multi-week highs above 103.00. - Supporting the greenback's rally in recent weeks were the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 18. The minutes showed that a "majority" of policymakers favored easing monetary policy with a 50 basis point cut, but did not commit the Federal Reserve to a specific timeline for future cuts. Results: - As both the Fed and the ECB consider additional interest rate moves, the EUR/USD outlook will depend on macroeconomic trends. The US economy is expected to outperform the Eurozone, potentially boosting the USD further. On technical analysis and gold price forecast for the coming period: - EURUSD has broken above the support level at 1.0892 and the price volume is below both the 34-day and 89-day exponential moving averages (EMA), suggesting a higher possibility of further declines. - Currently, EURUSD is trading near the resistance level of 1.0892, with immediate support at 1.0850.
Short
by Bentradegold
GBPUSD's decline has not stopped yetHello everyone, Conan! Today, the GBPUSD pair is maintaining a mild negative trend, trading at around 1.0544. After losing momentum from 1.3000, GBPUSD has continued to decline. The pair could continue to decline in the coming period, as the market reassesses the Bank of England (BoE) policy outlook following weak inflation data. The current support level is set at 1.2976, significant stops will accumulate below this figure and if triggered, the decline could accelerate towards 1.2950.
Short
by ConanTradingFX
1
EURUSD extends gains above 1.0850Conan, hello everyone! Currently, EURUSD is taking advantage of the upside opportunity from the strong support at 1.0852. It can be seen that the pair is cooling down and gradually opening up more upside opportunities. It is clear that EUR/USD is on a tear, falling to a multi-week low as the Euro continues to weaken ahead of the upcoming European Central Bank interest rate meeting on Thursday. However, the widely expected ECB rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point, or 25 bps, has eased some of the pressure on the pair. The price is currently trading around the 1.0862-1.0860 range and remains dependent on the price momentum of the US Dollar (USD). Resistance: 1.0876, 1.0905 Support: 1.0852, 1.0858
by ConanTradingFX
Gold price update: Price exceeds 2665 USDHello everyone! As Conan predicted earlier, gold did indeed take advantage of the $2,665 support level and broke above the nearest resistance level of $2,770. As a result, gold rallied and hit an earlier high of $2,685 before quickly correcting slightly but still maintaining its best uptrend in 2024. Currently, according to CME's FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 96% chance of a further 25 basis point cut in US interest rates at its November policy meeting. In addition, experts predict that the ECB is likely to cut rates again at its October 17 meeting. Likewise, expectations for a BoE rate cut at its meeting next month are gradually increasing as domestic inflation shows signs of slowing.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ConanTradingFX
EUR/USD Struggles to Recover - Bears Dominate!Today, EUR/USD pair continued to fluctuate in a narrow range below the 1.0900 mark during Thursday's trading session, holding on to recent heavy losses, after falling to a near two-month low the previous day. Technically, the old support level has turned into a stiff resistance, making any recovery attempt difficult. Meanwhile, technical indicators and signals from EMA 34, 89 continue to favor the Bears, putting EUR/USD on the back foot against other rivals. Good luck traders!
Short
by Bentradegold
2
Opening (IRA): NVDA Nov 15th 83/98/143/158... for a 2.70 credit. Comments: 30-day IV remains fairly decent here at 48.9%. Going wider than I usually do from a delta standpoint, with the short option legs camped out at the 16 delta, but with the wings at standard width (1/10th the price of the underlying), knowing that I will probably adjust the setup at some point given its duration (56 DTE). Earnings haven't been firmly announced yet, but are likely to occur right around mopex (~11/14), so will look to be out of the trade by then. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 12.30 Max Profit: 2.70 ROC at Max: 21.95% 50% Max: 1.35 ROC at 50% Max: 10.98% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll in sides to delta balance.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TQQQ Oct 18th 59 Monied Covered Call... for a 56.10 debit. Comments: This isn't at a lower strike than what I currently have on, but I'm (somewhat) fine with it, since I'm still below what I have in mind to be maximally deployed in this instrument. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 56.10 Max Profit: 2.90 ROC at Max: 5.17% 50% Max: 1.45 ROC at 50% Max: 2.58% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out in-profit short call for duration and credit.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
Weekly GEX of QQQ | Option Chain AnalysisI’d like to share my thoughts below after analyzing the QQQ option chain. In this analysis, I focus exclusively on the weekly time range, examining the QQQ option chain and the changes in top-tier options metrics. 🟨 Decline in Put Pricing Skew and Increase in IVx The decline in put pricing skew on Options Oscillator suggests that put options are becoming relatively cheaper , signaling a shift in market participants' expectations. This indicates increased call buying and put writing activity in the options chain . Along with the decrease in implied volatility (IV), this often points to a lower demand for downside protection strategies, which could be interpreted as a bullish sentiment. Currently, the QQQ’s IVRank stands at 31.5, reflecting a moderate volatility environment. However, with an average IVx of 19.2, trading volumes could increase, and interest in volatility-based strategies may rise further. 🔶 Backwardation in 4-7 DTE and Time Spreads Backwardation in the 4-7 DTE (days to expiration) period can be ideal for time spread (calendar, diagonal) option traders , as near-term options show higher volatility than longer-term ones. This creates a favorable environment for time spread strategies, especially if this backwardation persists. 🟨 Gamma Levels and Open Interest-Based Levels Call high OI gamma walls (or call resistance levels) typically act as resistance points. However, once these levels are broken, the bullish movement can accelerate due to positive gamma exposure. Put gamma walls (or put support levels), on the other hand, act as support. If broken, downward moves can intensify due to the high negative gamma exposure. While the current largest gamma wall was for today at 495, the upcoming expiration on 10/14 could shift this level to 500, where the greatest gamma exposure will likely be after the Monday expiration (due to the large amount of open interest expiring at 495). If the price breaks above this level, it could further bolster bullish prospects to 505 (last ATH). Additionally, the 500 strike plays a critical role as a major level in the Options Grid System, representing the 8/8 level. 🟨 OTM 16 delta probability cloud in Options Overlay The blue Delta Curves on the Options Overlay show the 16-delta levels, helping traders identify potential price ranges. According to current data, on the call side, the 505 strike is still within the 16-delta range, reinforcing its bullish potential. This represents the 68% probability range defined by OTM 16 delta PUTs and OTM 16 delta CALLs, showing a clear directional expected move value. It provides an insightful view of the expected price movement’s directional range, often used by delta-neutral strangle traders like those at TastyTrade. 🟨 Time Spread Strategies The aforementioned backwardation and gamma wall situation may present an advantage for time spread traders. Backwardation between 4-7 DTE provides an optimal window for those favoring time spreads, as the higher short-term volatility offers better premiums. 🟨 TanukiTrade Options Oscillator values The TanukiTrade Options Oscillator indicates that the combination of declining put skew and decreasing IV suggests potential volatility growth on the bullish side of the market. This could be a valuable signal for both long and time spread strategies. ⅀ QQQ Summary The decline in put skew and increase in IVx imply that market participants are anticipating an increase in bullish volatility. Backwardation between 4-7DTE supports time spread strategies, while the call gamma wall at 500—and soon 505—is likely to serve as significant resistance/target. (NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available soon, by the end of October!)
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by TanukiTrade
4
Weekly GEX of SPX | Option Chain Analysis for Option TradersI’d like to share my thoughts below after analyzing the SPX option chain. In this analysis, I focus exclusively on the weekly time range, examining the SPX option chain and the changes in top-tier options metrics. 🔶 Breakout and Bullish Outlook Last Friday's price action saw the SPX break through the 5800 call gamma wall, generating strong bullish momentum . This breakout opens the door for further upward movement throughout the week, especially if buying pressure persists. Breaking through a call gamma wall often leads to a rapid price increase, as these levels act as resistance, but once broken, they support further upward moves. However, caution is advised, as additional call gamma levels (around 5850 and 5875) could act as resistance, where the price may stall. These levels can reverse roles and, if the price falters, could act as significant resistance, potentially leading to a pullback toward the 5800 level. 🔴 Put Skew and IVx Changes The put pricing skew on the Options Oscillator shows a declining trend, meaning that while put options are still more expensive than calls at equivalent strikes, this trend is softening when looking at the November expiration. This indicates a weakening of put options relative to calls, which could be another bullish signal as demand for puts may be declining. The five-day IVx average declining , indicating a decrease in market volatility = VIX is melting down. 🟨 Backwardation and Diagonal/Calendar Strategy Opportunities It's also worth noting the 10.5% backwardation based on the IV skew for the expirations between 10/18 and 10/21 (4/7DTE). This backwardation (downward sloping volatility curve) could benefit calendar and diagonal spread strategies, as options with different expirations have varying volatility conditions. 🔶 GEX Wall Levels: Where Is Support and Resistance? 🔹Gamma Exposure (GEX) levels continue to play a crucial role in the market’s movements: 🔹On the upside, the largest call gamma wall for the next 7 days is at 5850, while the 5875 level may also act as significant resistance. The 5875 is a more likely a realistic bullish target, supported by the Options Overlay’s blue OTM delta 16 probability curve. 🔹On the downside, the 5750 put support level currently offers strong support, with sellers forming a barrier here. The 5800 level is also interesting because it was the largest call gamma level last week, meaning there could be significant volatility as bulls and bears battle around this point. (NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available by the end of October.) 🟨 How Delta 16 Curves Define My Rational Price Range in Options Trading The blue OTM Delta 16 curves from the Options Overlay define the rational probability range for me based on a lognormal distribution. This is important because there’s a 68% chance the price will stay within this range by expiration. These values are also visible in the Overlay Expiry table. This represents the 68% probability range defined by OTM 16 delta PUTs and OTM 16 delta CALLs, showing a clear directional expected move value. It provides an insightful view of the expected price movement’s directional range, often used by delta-neutral strangle traders like those at TastyTrade. ⅀ SPX Summary The SPX options chain is showing a bullish direction with the breakout above 5800, but it will be key to watch the gamma levels where the market might stall this week. The rising IV and declining put skew trend could provide further signals that the bull market might continue, but the possibility of resistance or a pullback remains. For those considering diagonal strategies, the backwardation may offer interesting opportunities to capitalize on. (NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available soon, by the end of October!)
SP:SPXLong
by TanukiTrade