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GOLD → First declines, then continues to conquer $2,900OANDA:XAUUSD is currently moving slowly on a bullish trend platform, with the price fluctuating around $2,868 and rising by approximately 0.45% on the day. Inflation remains on an upward trajectory, and gold is responding as a safe-haven asset. "Gold is on track to reach $2,900 per ounce, and market sentiment remains highly optimistic, despite the short-term strength of the U.S. dollar." Furthermore, recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate that major policy uncertainties—including tariffs and other issues stemming from the early days of former President Donald Trump's administration—are among the biggest challenges in determining monetary policy direction in the coming months. Currently, the market's focus is on the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, set to be released on Friday, which will provide further insights into the overall strength of the economy and the Fed’s policy path. Theoretically, a disappointing jobs report could strengthen the case for interest rate cuts in the U.S., thereby boosting gold prices. However, the opposite scenario is also possible. From a technical standpoint, gold prices may decline from the $2,870 resistance level to accumulate liquidity and prepare for further upward movement. Specifically, the price could react to lower trend boundaries and the previously broken resistance of the ascending channel. There are no fundamental or technical reasons to break the current trend, and growth may resume after a potential false breakout. Regards Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
USD/JPY: What's Changing at Year-End?Hello, dear friends! As the year comes to a close, USD/JPY has shown significant movement, reversing course and dropping below the 157.00 mark. This late-year shift comes as market participants prepare for midweek closures and reduced activity around the New Year holiday. Despite lighter trading volumes, price action remains dynamic, signaling potential shifts in the trend. Technically, USD/JPY has failed to maintain its position within the parallel ascending channel, suggesting the emergence of a new trend. A key level to watch now is the immediate support at 156.03. The critical question is whether this support will hold and for how long. Looking at the bigger picture, sustained consolidation below the broken channel could lead to a move toward lower targets, as indicated on the 4-hour chart. If you find this idea insightful, don’t forget to leave your thoughts in the comments below and share it with your network. Your support gives me immense motivation to continue sharing valuable experiences and strategies in the forex market. Let's conquer this journey together!
Short
by Bentradegold
USDJPY: Correction before dropping to 153.00-152.00Hello everyone, Ben here! USDJPY has yet to resume its upward trend. Rumors about potential actions from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are beginning to surface. Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to gain strength. The 158.46 level represents a strong resistance zone established by the sellers. Strong expectations for an additional interest rate hike by the BoJ this week are also lending support to the JPY. Overall, this influence appears relatively weak but could still provide significant backing for this currency pair. In theory, any upward movement of this major pair might be limited due to trade policy risks from the soon-to-be-inaugurated US President Donald Trump, which have constrained any significant bullish moves for the safe-haven JPY. The focus this week will be on Trump’s inauguration speech on Monday and the highly anticipated two-day BoJ policy meeting beginning on Thursday. From a technical standpoint, the price is attempting to break out of a major range and test key support levels. A false breakout around the 156.56 level could lead to the price targeting newly formed resistance zones. However, if the price settles below 156.56 or even drops under 155.95, it could trigger strong selling pressure sooner than expected. Best regards, Bentradegold!
Short
by Bentradegold
Trading the VIX - A Balanced Strategy for Smart InvestorsWarning: This strategy is presented as a trading idea and should not be considered guaranteed trading guidance. Traders are responsible for their own decisions and should carefully evaluate risks before executing any trades. Given that VIX is generally between 13 and 20, I designed this option strategy. Combination VIX Vertical Spreads Strategy Overview: Days to Expiry (DTE): 37 Option Positions: Buy VIX 13 Call Sell VIX 15 Put Sell VIX 20 Call × 2 Visualized Setup Strategy Summary: This strategy results in a combination resembling a modified short straddle centered at VIX 20. However, in structure, it is better understood as a short strangle (neutral) combined with a bull call spread (bullish). The bullish component of the spread suggests that the trader expects the VIX to rise above 13 but remain below 20. The inclusion of a short strangle component helps offset the premium of the debit call spread. This structured approach allows for a calculated risk-reward balance, aligning with the trader’s outlook on implied volatility while leveraging option spreads to optimize capital efficiency. Risk and Reward Assessment: The strategy is heavily weighted towards a long VIX bias, meaning the trader anticipates an increase in VIX, though at a measured pace within a month. There is a slight increase in risk to the short side of VIX due to the exposure created by the short options. The expected profit range suggests that VIX volatility will stay within a defined range of 14 to 24. While the trader acknowledges the possibility of VIX exceeding 20, it is not expected to surpass 24. The probability of profit at expiry is estimated at 65% if entered today. Despite the additional short-side risk, the overall risk remains comparable to a standard short strangle. Historical VIX data indicates that the index fluctuates between 12 and 40 on a monthly basis, with a 52-week high of 65.7 and a 52-week low of 10.6. This reinforces the strategy’s inherent higher risk to the long VIX side. Key Considerations for Execution: Event Risk: Confirm that no major events (e.g., geopolitical instability, Federal Reserve announcements) are expected that could push VIX above 30. Entry Timing: Optimal entry is when VIX is at a relatively low level, such as observed last Friday (2/7/2025) morning. Exit Strategy: The position should be closed in approximately two to three weeks or when profit exceeds 100%. Notes and Alternative Strategy: One challenge of this strategy is the uncertainty in determining a precise stop-loss strategy. However, given the nature of a strangle, there is no immediate need to exit within the first 20 days, making it a relatively "lazy" management strategy. The trader has ample time to adjust after the initial 20-day period. Management should be approached by treating the bull call spread and short strangle separately. Given the natural variance of VIX, this approach should not be overly difficult to execute. A suggested alternative strategy might provide more controlled risk exposure. For example, I would start the trade with a butterfly at 20 if I see the potential rise of VIX. Then, I would reassess it after 30 days (assuming DTE=37; a shorter DTE may also be considered). Alternatively, I could simply wait until expiration day to make a final decision. This strategy has a limited loss while maintaining a similar profit potential. The suggested strategy manages the cost-efficiency aspect while also limiting potential losses. The decision-making process can then be based on market direction after the expected conditions begin to form. In comparison to the original strategy in terms of profit and exit timing, the proposed strategy may offer a faster exit, whereas a butterfly setup may require waiting until expiration. However, traders may find early exits possible for condors or strangles. Here is a visualization of the alternative setup: Alternative Strategy Visualization Thank you for reading. Wish you a successful options trading!
TVC:VIXLong
by yungyeh
3
Nifty50 Trade Setup – February ExpiryAnalyzing the 7th Feb settlement prices using my proprietary OptionSigma model, a key level emerges: 23,698.80. 📌 Bullish Scenario: A clean breakout above 23,698.80 signals strength—potential long opportunities in Nifty February Futures or Monthly Call options. 📌 Bearish Scenario: Failure to breach this level? Shorting is the only play—either via futures or buying put options. ⚡ Stay sharp. Watch the price action around this level for confirmation! #Nifty50 #OptionsTrading #IndexTrading #OptionSigma #FNO #TradingStrategy
NSE:NIFTY1!
by IndexAce
[02/03] TSLA GEX Outlook for February expiration📌 Key Levels & GEX Insights Gamma Flip Zone: ~400 (until Febr expiration) Tight Transition Zone, Wide Clear Movement Range Above 420 Call Resistance : Every strike has positive Net GEX, meaning a return to this range would likely support further balanced upside or sideways movement. Below 375 : The next PUT support is at 350, so a break below this level could open the door for a deeper drop. There are 3 weeks until expiration. IV and IVR remain high even after earnings. Despite today’s selloff, the high call pricing skew is still attractive if we want to collect credit. In this case, a call butterfly or broken-wing call butterfly could be worth considering—but strictly based on GEX levels. PS: FINAL GEX ZONE COLORING SHEET
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TanukiTrade
6
Opening (IRA): SPXL March 21st 154 Covered Call... for a 151.04 debit. Comments: Selling the -84 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. (In all honesty, this is just an attempt to keep my theta/net liquidity ratio above .05, which is kind of the minimum of where I like to have it). Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 151.04/share Max Profit: 3.96 ROC at Max: 1.96% 50% Max: 1.98 ROC at 50% Max: .98
AMEX:SPXLLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TSLA March 21st 330/335/465/470 IC*... for a 1.70 credit. Comments: Post-earnings, IV remains fairly decent here at 57.3. Selling the -20 delta short option legs and buying the wings out from there. Basically, just doing small stuff while I wait for other stuff to play out. Metrics: Max Profit: 1.70 Buying Power Effect: 3.30 ROC at Max: 51.2% 50% Max: .85 ROC at 50% Max: 25.8% Delta/Theta: .95/2.24 Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, consider doing a delta adjustment when the delta/theta ratio skews out to >2.0. * -- Iron Condor.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by NaughtyPines
GOLD → Testing Key Resistance with Potential to Reach 2726-2790OANDA:XAUUSD currently testing an important resistance level from which we can expect the price to continue rising to key levels such as 2726-2790. Technically, gold has entered the buying zone and the fundamental context supports it. Gold is supported by weak US inflation data, moderate Fed expectations, hopes for Chinese stimulus measures, and fading concerns about President-elect Trump's disruptive trade tariffs which have supported the risk-on sentiment prevailing in markets, causing the US dollar to decline sharply. Focus shifts to other economic data releases from the US, including December Retail Sales and Weekly Unemployment Claims, which will provide more clarity on the Fed's interest rate trajectory after January. Markets have fully priced in a rate pause at the Fed's policy meeting later this month. Gold prices will also remain dependent on any speculation surrounding Trump's tariff plans. Technically, all eyes are now on the resistance zone at 2697-2700. If gold can consolidate above this area, buyers will quickly enter the medium and long-term playing field. But don't forget about the upcoming news releases. Best regards, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
GOLD → False or true resistance breakout?OANDA:XAUUSD is trying to consolidate above the previously broken boundary of the ascending channel. The struggle that has not ended creates risks for both buyers and sellers. The weakening USD, coupled with the lack of clarity surrounding President Donald Trump's policy plans and ongoing trade wars, continues to provide support for gold. Inflation expectations are rising amid a period of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain high interest rates for an extended period to control increasing price pressures. Since taking office, President Trump has provided little detail on his proposed tariffs, raising questions about the seriousness of these measures and their potential impact. In the coming days and weeks, the precious metals market will be influenced by constantly shifting news from Washington. Resistance levels: 2758, 2770 Support levels: 2750, 2745, 2730 Currently, prices are consolidating above previously broken resistance levels. If there is no bullish momentum and the price breaks through a false resistance channel, gold may decline toward 2745 - 2730. However, a breakout above the local resistance level could trigger buying and push the price to the target: 2770. Best regards, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
4
Opening (IRA): TNA March 21st 40 Covered Call... for a 38.17 debit. Comments: High IV; starter position. Going out to the 56 DTE March monthly for my starter position, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 38.17/share Max Profit: 1.83 ROC at Max: 4.79% 50% Max: .92 ROC at 50% Max: 2.40% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call if the take profit has not been hit.
AMEX:TNALong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SMH February 21st 195/220/270/295 Iron Condor... for a 3.91 credit. Comments: Back into the semiconductor ETF, where I don't have a position on currently. Going comparatively low delta, with the short options camped out at the 17 delta on both sides and the wings about 1/10th the price of the underlying in width. Metrics: Max Profit: 3.91 Buying Power Effect: 21.09 ROC at Max: 18.54% 50% Max: 1.96 ROC at 50% Max: 9.27% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll untested side in toward current price on side test.
NASDAQ:SMH
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): EWW March 21st 46 Covered Call... for a 45.00 debit. Comments: Taking a small (ish) directional shot in the Mexico exchange-traded fund, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 45.00/share Max Profit: 1.00 ROC at Max: 2.22% 50% Max: .50 ROC at 50% Max: 1.11% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, and/or roll out the short call if my take profit isn't hit.
AMEX:EWWLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TQQQ March 21st 72 Covered Call... for a 68.95 debit. Comments: Starter position on weakness. Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 68.95 Max Profit: 3.05 ROC at Max: 4.42% 50% Max: 1.53 ROC at 50% Max: 2.21% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens that what I have on at the time, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): FCX July 18th 25/March 21st 39 Long Call Diagonal... for an 11.02 debit. Comments: Taking a directional shot post-earnings on weakness, buying the back month 90 delta call and selling the front month 30 delta that pays for all of the extrinsic in the long, resulting in a break even that is slightly below where the underlying is currently trading. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 11.02 Break Even: 36.02/share Max Profit: 2.98 ROC at Max: 27.04% With these, I generally look to take profit at 110% of what I put them on for and/or look to roll out the short call to reduce my cost basis/downside break even should that not be hit.
NYSE:FCXLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TNA March 21st 39 Covered Call... for a 37.05 debit. Comments: Adding to my TNA position at a slightly better break even than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 37.05/share Max Profit: 1.95 ROC at Max: 5.26% 50% Max: .98 ROC at 50% Max: 2.63% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call if my take profit is not hit.
AMEX:TNALong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): XBI March 21st 86 Covered Call... for an 84.20 debit. Comments: Adding to my position at strikes better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 84.20 Max Profit: 1.80 ROC at Max: 2.14% 50% Max: .90 ROC at 50% Max: 1.07% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call if my take profit isn't hit.
AMEX:XBILong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TMF March 21st 36 Covered Call... for a 34.85 debit. Comments: Starter position. Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 34.85 Max Profit: 1.15 ROC at Max: 3.30% 50% Max: .58 ROC at 50% Max: 1.65% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call if my take profit is not hit.
AMEX:TMFLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): IBIT March 21st 48 Covered Call... for a 46.14 debit. Comments: Adding to my current position at strikes better than what I have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 46.14 Max Profit: 1.86 ROC at Max: 4.03% 50% Max: .93 ROC at 50% Max: 2.02% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my TP is not hit.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): INDA March 21st -52C/June 20th 2 x 45C/-50C... covered zebra for a 9.93 debit. Comments: I fiddled mightily with bullish assumption setups in this underlying and settled on this setup -- a covered zebra (zero extrinsic ratio back spread). It consists of two parts: (1) a longer-dated zebra where I bought 2 x the 75 delta strike call and sold the -50 delta call to synthesize a 100 delta setup; (2) against which I sold a shorter-dated -30 delta call. This emulates the delta metrics of a covered call, but with a smaller buying power effect than either a covered call or a long call diagonal. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 9.93 debit Break Even: 49.96/share Max Profit: 2.04 While you can manage the separate, bullish assumption spreads of the setup, I'll look to money/take/run at 110% of what I put it on for and/or look to roll out the short call to reduce my break even further should my take profit not hit.
CBOE:INDALong
by NaughtyPines