Opening (IRA): TSLA March 21st 330/335/465/470 IC*... for a 1.70 credit.
Comments: Post-earnings, IV remains fairly decent here at 57.3. Selling the -20 delta short option legs and buying the wings out from there. Basically, just doing small stuff while I wait for other stuff to play out.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 1.70
Buying Power Effect: 3.30
ROC at Max: 51.2%
50% Max: .85
ROC at 50% Max: 25.8%
Delta/Theta: .95/2.24
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, consider doing a delta adjustment when the delta/theta ratio skews out to >2.0.
* -- Iron Condor.
Optionsstrategies
GOLD → Testing Key Resistance with Potential to Reach 2726-2790OANDA:XAUUSD currently testing an important resistance level from which we can expect the price to continue rising to key levels such as 2726-2790. Technically, gold has entered the buying zone and the fundamental context supports it.
Gold is supported by weak US inflation data, moderate Fed expectations, hopes for Chinese stimulus measures, and fading concerns about President-elect Trump's disruptive trade tariffs which have supported the risk-on sentiment prevailing in markets, causing the US dollar to decline sharply.
Focus shifts to other economic data releases from the US, including December Retail Sales and Weekly Unemployment Claims, which will provide more clarity on the Fed's interest rate trajectory after January. Markets have fully priced in a rate pause at the Fed's policy meeting later this month. Gold prices will also remain dependent on any speculation surrounding Trump's tariff plans.
Technically, all eyes are now on the resistance zone at 2697-2700. If gold can consolidate above this area, buyers will quickly enter the medium and long-term playing field. But don't forget about the upcoming news releases.
Best regards, Bentradegold!
GOLD → False or true resistance breakout?OANDA:XAUUSD is trying to consolidate above the previously broken boundary of the ascending channel. The struggle that has not ended creates risks for both buyers and sellers.
The weakening USD, coupled with the lack of clarity surrounding President Donald Trump's policy plans and ongoing trade wars, continues to provide support for gold.
Inflation expectations are rising amid a period of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain high interest rates for an extended period to control increasing price pressures. Since taking office, President Trump has provided little detail on his proposed tariffs, raising questions about the seriousness of these measures and their potential impact.
In the coming days and weeks, the precious metals market will be influenced by constantly shifting news from Washington.
Resistance levels: 2758, 2770
Support levels: 2750, 2745, 2730
Currently, prices are consolidating above previously broken resistance levels. If there is no bullish momentum and the price breaks through a false resistance channel, gold may decline toward 2745 - 2730.
However, a breakout above the local resistance level could trigger buying and push the price to the target: 2770.
Best regards, Bentradegold!
Opening (IRA): TNA March 21st 40 Covered Call... for a 38.17 debit.
Comments: High IV; starter position. Going out to the 56 DTE March monthly for my starter position, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 38.17/share
Max Profit: 1.83
ROC at Max: 4.79%
50% Max: .92
ROC at 50% Max: 2.40%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call if the take profit has not been hit.
Opening (IRA): SMH February 21st 195/220/270/295 Iron Condor... for a 3.91 credit.
Comments: Back into the semiconductor ETF, where I don't have a position on currently. Going comparatively low delta, with the short options camped out at the 17 delta on both sides and the wings about 1/10th the price of the underlying in width.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 3.91
Buying Power Effect: 21.09
ROC at Max: 18.54%
50% Max: 1.96
ROC at 50% Max: 9.27%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll untested side in toward current price on side test.
Opening (IRA): EWW March 21st 46 Covered Call... for a 45.00 debit.
Comments: Taking a small (ish) directional shot in the Mexico exchange-traded fund, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 45.00/share
Max Profit: 1.00
ROC at Max: 2.22%
50% Max: .50
ROC at 50% Max: 1.11%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, and/or roll out the short call if my take profit isn't hit.
Opening (IRA): TQQQ March 21st 72 Covered Call... for a 68.95 debit.
Comments: Starter position on weakness. Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 68.95
Max Profit: 3.05
ROC at Max: 4.42%
50% Max: 1.53
ROC at 50% Max: 2.21%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens that what I have on at the time, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
Opening (IRA): FCX July 18th 25/March 21st 39 Long Call Diagonal... for an 11.02 debit.
Comments: Taking a directional shot post-earnings on weakness, buying the back month 90 delta call and selling the front month 30 delta that pays for all of the extrinsic in the long, resulting in a break even that is slightly below where the underlying is currently trading.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 11.02
Break Even: 36.02/share
Max Profit: 2.98
ROC at Max: 27.04%
With these, I generally look to take profit at 110% of what I put them on for and/or look to roll out the short call to reduce my cost basis/downside break even should that not be hit.
Opening (IRA): TNA March 21st 39 Covered Call... for a 37.05 debit.
Comments: Adding to my TNA position at a slightly better break even than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 37.05/share
Max Profit: 1.95
ROC at Max: 5.26%
50% Max: .98
ROC at 50% Max: 2.63%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call if my take profit is not hit.
Opening (IRA): XBI March 21st 86 Covered Call... for an 84.20 debit.
Comments: Adding to my position at strikes better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 84.20
Max Profit: 1.80
ROC at Max: 2.14%
50% Max: .90
ROC at 50% Max: 1.07%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call if my take profit isn't hit.
Opening (IRA): MU March 21st 75 Covered Call... for a 72.85 debit.
Comments: Looking to do something small here on weakness: Selling the -80 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 20 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Earnings are on 3/19, so will look to be out by then.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 72.85
Max Profit: 2.15
ROC at Max: 2.95%
50% Max: 1.08
ROC at 50% Max: 1.48%
Opening (IRA): TMF March 21st 36 Covered Call... for a 34.85 debit.
Comments: Starter position. Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 34.85
Max Profit: 1.15
ROC at Max: 3.30%
50% Max: .58
ROC at 50% Max: 1.65%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call if my take profit is not hit.
Opening (IRA): IBIT March 21st 48 Covered Call... for a 46.14 debit.
Comments: Adding to my current position at strikes better than what I have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 46.14
Max Profit: 1.86
ROC at Max: 4.03%
50% Max: .93
ROC at 50% Max: 2.02%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my TP is not hit.
Opening (IRA): PLTR Feb 28th 70/75/100/105 Iron Condor... for a 2.11 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 89.1/81.3. Adding to my PLTR position as an earnings announcement volatility contraction play.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 2.11
Buying Power Effect: 2.89
ROC at Max: 73.01%
50% Max: 1.06
ROC at 50% Max: 36.51%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, immediately roll out to March if a side is tested.
Opening (IRA): INDA March 21st -52C/June 20th 2 x 45C/-50C... covered zebra for a 9.93 debit.
Comments: I fiddled mightily with bullish assumption setups in this underlying and settled on this setup -- a covered zebra (zero extrinsic ratio back spread).
It consists of two parts: (1) a longer-dated zebra where I bought 2 x the 75 delta strike call and sold the -50 delta call to synthesize a 100 delta setup; (2) against which I sold a shorter-dated -30 delta call. This emulates the delta metrics of a covered call, but with a smaller buying power effect than either a covered call or a long call diagonal.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 9.93 debit
Break Even: 49.96/share
Max Profit: 2.04
While you can manage the separate, bullish assumption spreads of the setup, I'll look to money/take/run at 110% of what I put it on for and/or look to roll out the short call to reduce my break even further should my take profit not hit.
Opening (IRA): TQQQ March 21st 68 Covered Call... for a 64.63 debit.
Comments: Starter position on weakness, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 64.63
Max Profit: 3.37
ROC at Max: 5.21%
50% Max: 1.69
ROC at 50% Max: 2.61%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my TP is not hit.
Opening (IRA): SOXL March 21st 20 Covered Call... for an 18.21 debit.
Comments: Adding to my current position at strikes better than what I have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 18.21
Max Profit: 1.79
ROC at Max: 9.83%
50% Max: .90
ROC at 50% Max: 4.91%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my TP is not hit.
DIS The Walt Disney Company Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on DIS:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of DIS The Walt Disney Company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 140usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-6-20,
for a premium of approximately $1.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Bull & Bear Top Options February Week 1AMEX:SPY
Weekly Options 2/4/2025
We are still trading in the same range as last week from $591 to $605. This week we will trade this same range using 15 to 30 minute candle closes for confirmation and stop-loss.
$605 Call 2/18 or 2/21
Entry: Breakout over $600, buy off retest
Targets🎯: $603, $605, $608
$595 Put 2/18 or 2/21
Entry: Breakdown under $600, buy off retest rejection
Targets🎯: $595, $593, $591
Opening (IRA): SOXL March 21st 23 Covered Call... for a 20.87 debit.
Comments: High IVR/IV. Adding to my position at a break even better than what I currently have on. Selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 20.87
Max Profit: 2.13
ROC at Max: 10.21%
50% Max: 1.07
ROC at 50% Max: 5.11%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals (assuming I can get in at a break even better than what I currently have on), and/or roll out the short call in the event take profit is not hit.
Opening (IRA): TQQQ March 21st 71 Covered Call... for a 67.75 debit.
Comments: Starter position, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 67.75/share
Max Profit: 3.25
ROC at Max: 4.80%
50% Max: 1.63
ROC at 50% Max: 2.40%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals (assuming I can get in at break evens/strikes better than what I currently have on), and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
Opening (IRA): INTC Feb 21st 15/19/20/24 Skinny IC... for a 2.04 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV (91.4/69.7) earnings announcement volatility contraction play. Going "skinny"/"almost iron fly" here. For purposes of take profit, treating it as an iron fly, where I generally look to take profit at 25% max.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 2.04
Buying Power Effect/Max Loss: 1.96
25% Max: .51
ROC at 25% Max: 25.0%