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Opening (IRA): URTY January 17th 51 Covered Call.. for a 49.25 debit. Comments: With my usual leveraged go-to TQQQ in kind of the IV doldrums (IVR 18.1/IV 49.6), opting for a play in URTY with its 63.4% 30-Day IV instead. It's not as liquid and doesn't have nearly as robust an options chain as TQQQ, but I will make do. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 49.25/share Max Profit: 1.75 ROC at Max: 3.55% 50% Max: .88 ROC at 50% Max: 1.78% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on test of take profit price, and add should I be able to get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on.
AMEX:URTYLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): MSTR 2x225/2x240/460/490 Iron Condor... for a 7.00 credit. Comments: IV remains high here at 112.4%. Going "double double" (put spread half the width of the call spread, but 2 x the number of contracts) to accommodate skew. Earnings are on 2/4, so will probably want to get out before then. Metrics: Max Profit: 7.00 Buying Power Effect: 23.00 ROC at Max: 30.43% 50% Max: 3.50 ROC at 50% Max: 15.22% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in untested side on side test to about half the delta of the tested side. Given earnings on the horizon, will naturally just money/take/run for less if presented with the opportunity.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): URTY February 21st 41 Covered Call... for a 39.07 debit. Comments: Adding in at strikes better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. I would prefer using TNA, since it's more liquid and has more expiries available, but already have a position on in TNA where the short call strike is at or above the -75, so don't want to add here. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 39.07/share Max Profit: 1.93 ROC at Max: 4.94% 50% Max: .97 ROC at 50% Max: 2.47% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short call if the setup doesn't hit my take profit.
AMEX:URTYLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): IBIT February 21st 47 Covered Call... for a 44.52 debit. Comments: Adding to my position at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta strike against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 44.52/share Max Profit: 2.48 ROC at Max: 5.57% 50% Max: 1.24 ROC at 50% Max: 2.79% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit point test.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by NaughtyPines
4
Opening (IRA): TNA Feb 21st 36 Covered Call... for a 34.33 debit. Comments: Starter position on weakness/high IV in lieu of the less liquid URTY. Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 34.33/share Max Profit: 1.67 ROC at Max: 4.86% 50% Max: .84 ROC at 50% Max: 2.43% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals should I be able to get in at break evens better than what I currently have on.
AMEX:TNALong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): IBIT February 21st 50 Covered Call... for a 47.07 debit. Comments: High IVR/IV (88.4/68.6) + weakness post-FOMC. Going out to February, as there are only 30 DTE left in January, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Looking at this as a "starter" position, so will look to add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.07/share Max Profit: 2.93 ROC at Max: 6.22% 50% Max: 1.47 ROC at 50% Max: 3.11% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit point test.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by NaughtyPines
2
GOLD: Buy or Sell ?Dear friends, Ben here! Gold begins the new week with a slight decline, retreating from the one-month high reached on Friday. Hawkish expectations from the Fed, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and a stronger USD are weighing on the precious metal in the short term. On the other hand, risk-off sentiment might provide support for the safe-haven pair XAU/USD and help limit further losses. :) From a technical perspective, gold confirmed a bullish breakout from a month-long symmetrical triangle pattern on January 8, further reinforcing the ongoing bullish momentum. It is likely that the struggle will continue, and the price may retest the previously broken boundary or the liquidity zone at 2675–2665, which will determine the next phase of developments. Resistance level: 2698 Support levels: 2685, 2665 The situation remains volatile, as numerous factors are exerting pressure on the price. Accordingly: If, after the retest, buyers manage to hold the price above the 2680–2685 support zone, the upward momentum could continue in the medium term. However, if the bullish support structure breaks and sellers push the price below 2680, this could trigger a correction down to 2665 or 2650 before the uptrend resumes.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
2
EURJPY → Consolidating before dropping to 157.00OANDA:EURJPY is under pressure. This currency pair has broken its local uptrend. In the context of weak fundamental and technical foundations, overall market pressure may be experienced. On the global timeframe, the pair lacks a clear trend and has been trading mainly within the range of 166 - 156. A closer look reveals that the recent growth attempt failed near the intermediate high. As the price approached a local resistance level, it reversed and stabilized below the EMA, moving toward the lower boundary of the flat range. Locally, a structural shift has confirmed the bearish nature of the market. However, before further declines, the price may form a corrective move. Using Fibonacci levels to measure this potential correction, the short-term levels to watch are 0.618 (161.75) and 0.5 (162.28). In the medium term, however, the decline may continue. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with OANDA:EURJPY :) Regards R. Linda!
Short
by Bentradegold
Opening (IRA): ARKK Feb 21st 45/50/61/66 Iron Condor... for a 1.43 credit. Comments: An additive delta adjustment trade. With the short call of the setup I put on Friday (See Post Below) at -20 delta and the short put at 29, layering in an iron condor with the short call at the -28 delta and the short put at the 20 delta to flatten out net delta of the entire position. This is skewed slightly short to offset the slightly long delta skew of the setup I put on Friday, so am indicating that it's "short." Metrics: Max Profit: 1.43 Buying Power Effect: 3.57 ROC at Max: 40.06% 50% Max: .72 ROC at 50% Max: 20.03% Since you can't close out an eight-legged setup, will either look to take off each iron condor individually at 50% max or mix and match profitable call side with profitable put side to reduce units/risk running into expiry.
CBOE:ARKKShort
by NaughtyPines
Bull & Bear into the New Year | Week 1 2025 $SPY OptionsAMEX:SPY Last week, our $585 PUT 1/13 was a killer, producing two daytrades that ran for 50% and 132%! Here is what we are watching for this week: We have reclaimed bullish trend and expect consolidation within this range from $584.59 to $607.45. Last two weeks have been low volume and profit taking. We are using this bullish trendline for confirmation using 15-30 minute candle closes. $601 Call 1/24 Entry: Retest and hold of bullish trendline Targets 🎯: $599, $601, $603, $608 $590 Put 1/24 Entry: Breakdown and failed retest of trendline Targets 🎯: $590, $584.59
AMEX:SPY
by PennyBois
Gold--> Retest the resistance level before declining!Hello, dear friends! This is Ben here! Gold prices continue their upward trend, currently hovering around 2671, with a modest daily increase of 0.05%. The chart indicates that gold is consolidating and attempting to approach the critical resistance level of 2675. The bullish market structure suggests that prices are gearing up for a potential breakout. However, the key question remains, will the breakout occur? This depends largely on external factors, including the U.S. economy's performance and the inflationary trends, which have been long anticipated by the market. Based on current market behavior, we might expect gold to test liquidity and recheck key resistance levels before any potential downward correction. Buyers are likely to exercise caution after disappointing inflation data from China and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes. Frankly speaking, I’m not overly optimistic about gold’s upward momentum at the moment, given the lack of strong bullish catalysts aside from lingering trade policies, such as Trump's tariffs on major global powers. Fundamentally, the dollar’s strength and the Fed's hawkish stance continue to cap significant gains for the precious metal. Resistance levels: 2675, 2680 Support levels: EMA 2665, 2655 From a technical standpoint, the market structure remains bullish, and in the short term, we could see an attempt to break through the 2675 resistance. If successful, prices may test the next areas of interest at 2680 or even 2692 (OB Zone),which could later result in a possible decline. Best regards, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
1
COIN buy setup for near term equity or long call options tradeStrong buy rates indicating we have another solid bounce approaching into end of Jan 2025/ next FOMC meeting, to take price to 302$ target level. Great setup for a long call options trade for 30-45 DTE duration. Expecting additional volatility after peaking above 300 so will look for discounts once again before seeking entry on calls for Sept. Weekly and monthly tf cycles analysis indicating COIN share price is preparing to run strongly higher to 750$ and 1000$ targets by early 2026. VERY Very bullish from my standpoint, given its fundamentals and disruption of traditional banking/finance sectors.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by DaveTradesLive
Key Support at 0.6179: Will AUD/USD Break or Bounce?Dear friends! Currently, AUD/USD is struggling to record any meaningful recovery and remains near multi-year lows. In this context, the Fed's hawkish shift has driven U.S. Treasury yields higher, supporting the USD. Concerns over the U.S.-China trade war and expectations of an early rate cut by the RBA continue to weigh on the Australian dollar. Therefore, we can say that the probability of further price decline in the medium-term outlook is quite high. As mentioned on the 4-hour chart, the current price is approaching the level of 0.6179. A consolidation pattern is forming ahead of a potential breakout related to this level. I do not rule out the possibility of the price retesting the EMA resistance or a local high before further breakdown. However, the overall technical and fundamental situation suggests a decline. Focus on the trigger level at 0.6179. A breakdown and price consolidation below this level will likely trigger a significant drop.
Short
by Bentradegold
GOLD → False Breakout. Can Buyers Recover?Hello, dear friends! Ben here! Gold has made a false breakout at $2,637 and is now searching for strong support. The current situation is highly complex, both fundamentally and technically. Fundamentally, the situation remains challenging. Gold's weakness is influenced by the Fed's hawkish stance and the strength of the US Dollar. However, upward pressure on gold persists due to other factors, including the escalation of conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, Trump’s protectionist policies targeting Europe and Asia, and rising geopolitical risks worldwide. Technically, after the false breakout at $2,637 (previously a resistance level), the price is now heading toward a new testing zone around $2,622. Below that, the ascending channel support at $2,606 could act as the lower boundary where buyers may start an aggressive play. Key Support Levels: $2,622, $2,606 Key Resistance Levels: $2,637, $2,647, $2,665 Overall, I lean toward a medium-term bearish trend. However, the local situation remains tense and complicated. If the bulls manage to hold their ground within the ascending channel, gold may continue its upward move. But! If buyers fail to maintain their position within the channel, a correction could extend the downward momentum further, leading to deeper declines. Best regards, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold