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Opening (IRA): TNA Feb 21st 36 Covered Call... for a 34.33 debit. Comments: Starter position on weakness/high IV in lieu of the less liquid URTY. Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 34.33/share Max Profit: 1.67 ROC at Max: 4.86% 50% Max: .84 ROC at 50% Max: 2.43% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals should I be able to get in at break evens better than what I currently have on.
AMEX:TNALong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): IBIT February 21st 50 Covered Call... for a 47.07 debit. Comments: High IVR/IV (88.4/68.6) + weakness post-FOMC. Going out to February, as there are only 30 DTE left in January, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Looking at this as a "starter" position, so will look to add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.07/share Max Profit: 2.93 ROC at Max: 6.22% 50% Max: 1.47 ROC at 50% Max: 3.11% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit point test.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by NaughtyPines
2
GOLD: Buy or Sell ?Dear friends, Ben here! Gold begins the new week with a slight decline, retreating from the one-month high reached on Friday. Hawkish expectations from the Fed, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and a stronger USD are weighing on the precious metal in the short term. On the other hand, risk-off sentiment might provide support for the safe-haven pair XAU/USD and help limit further losses. :) From a technical perspective, gold confirmed a bullish breakout from a month-long symmetrical triangle pattern on January 8, further reinforcing the ongoing bullish momentum. It is likely that the struggle will continue, and the price may retest the previously broken boundary or the liquidity zone at 2675–2665, which will determine the next phase of developments. Resistance level: 2698 Support levels: 2685, 2665 The situation remains volatile, as numerous factors are exerting pressure on the price. Accordingly: If, after the retest, buyers manage to hold the price above the 2680–2685 support zone, the upward momentum could continue in the medium term. However, if the bullish support structure breaks and sellers push the price below 2680, this could trigger a correction down to 2665 or 2650 before the uptrend resumes.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
2
EURJPY → Consolidating before dropping to 157.00OANDA:EURJPY is under pressure. This currency pair has broken its local uptrend. In the context of weak fundamental and technical foundations, overall market pressure may be experienced. On the global timeframe, the pair lacks a clear trend and has been trading mainly within the range of 166 - 156. A closer look reveals that the recent growth attempt failed near the intermediate high. As the price approached a local resistance level, it reversed and stabilized below the EMA, moving toward the lower boundary of the flat range. Locally, a structural shift has confirmed the bearish nature of the market. However, before further declines, the price may form a corrective move. Using Fibonacci levels to measure this potential correction, the short-term levels to watch are 0.618 (161.75) and 0.5 (162.28). In the medium term, however, the decline may continue. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with OANDA:EURJPY :) Regards R. Linda!
Short
by Bentradegold
Opening (IRA): ARKK Feb 21st 45/50/61/66 Iron Condor... for a 1.43 credit. Comments: An additive delta adjustment trade. With the short call of the setup I put on Friday (See Post Below) at -20 delta and the short put at 29, layering in an iron condor with the short call at the -28 delta and the short put at the 20 delta to flatten out net delta of the entire position. This is skewed slightly short to offset the slightly long delta skew of the setup I put on Friday, so am indicating that it's "short." Metrics: Max Profit: 1.43 Buying Power Effect: 3.57 ROC at Max: 40.06% 50% Max: .72 ROC at 50% Max: 20.03% Since you can't close out an eight-legged setup, will either look to take off each iron condor individually at 50% max or mix and match profitable call side with profitable put side to reduce units/risk running into expiry.
AMEX:ARKKShort
by NaughtyPines
Bull & Bear into the New Year | Week 1 2025 $SPY OptionsAMEX:SPY Last week, our $585 PUT 1/13 was a killer, producing two daytrades that ran for 50% and 132%! Here is what we are watching for this week: We have reclaimed bullish trend and expect consolidation within this range from $584.59 to $607.45. Last two weeks have been low volume and profit taking. We are using this bullish trendline for confirmation using 15-30 minute candle closes. $601 Call 1/24 Entry: Retest and hold of bullish trendline Targets 🎯: $599, $601, $603, $608 $590 Put 1/24 Entry: Breakdown and failed retest of trendline Targets 🎯: $590, $584.59
AMEX:SPY
by PennyBois
Gold--> Retest the resistance level before declining!Hello, dear friends! This is Ben here! Gold prices continue their upward trend, currently hovering around 2671, with a modest daily increase of 0.05%. The chart indicates that gold is consolidating and attempting to approach the critical resistance level of 2675. The bullish market structure suggests that prices are gearing up for a potential breakout. However, the key question remains, will the breakout occur? This depends largely on external factors, including the U.S. economy's performance and the inflationary trends, which have been long anticipated by the market. Based on current market behavior, we might expect gold to test liquidity and recheck key resistance levels before any potential downward correction. Buyers are likely to exercise caution after disappointing inflation data from China and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes. Frankly speaking, I’m not overly optimistic about gold’s upward momentum at the moment, given the lack of strong bullish catalysts aside from lingering trade policies, such as Trump's tariffs on major global powers. Fundamentally, the dollar’s strength and the Fed's hawkish stance continue to cap significant gains for the precious metal. Resistance levels: 2675, 2680 Support levels: EMA 2665, 2655 From a technical standpoint, the market structure remains bullish, and in the short term, we could see an attempt to break through the 2675 resistance. If successful, prices may test the next areas of interest at 2680 or even 2692 (OB Zone),which could later result in a possible decline. Best regards, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
1
COIN buy setup for near term equity or long call options tradeStrong buy rates indicating we have another solid bounce approaching into end of Jan 2025/ next FOMC meeting, to take price to 302$ target level. Great setup for a long call options trade for 30-45 DTE duration. Expecting additional volatility after peaking above 300 so will look for discounts once again before seeking entry on calls for Sept. Weekly and monthly tf cycles analysis indicating COIN share price is preparing to run strongly higher to 750$ and 1000$ targets by early 2026. VERY Very bullish from my standpoint, given its fundamentals and disruption of traditional banking/finance sectors.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by DaveTradesLive
Key Support at 0.6179: Will AUD/USD Break or Bounce?Dear friends! Currently, AUD/USD is struggling to record any meaningful recovery and remains near multi-year lows. In this context, the Fed's hawkish shift has driven U.S. Treasury yields higher, supporting the USD. Concerns over the U.S.-China trade war and expectations of an early rate cut by the RBA continue to weigh on the Australian dollar. Therefore, we can say that the probability of further price decline in the medium-term outlook is quite high. As mentioned on the 4-hour chart, the current price is approaching the level of 0.6179. A consolidation pattern is forming ahead of a potential breakout related to this level. I do not rule out the possibility of the price retesting the EMA resistance or a local high before further breakdown. However, the overall technical and fundamental situation suggests a decline. Focus on the trigger level at 0.6179. A breakdown and price consolidation below this level will likely trigger a significant drop.
Short
by Bentradegold
GOLD → False Breakout. Can Buyers Recover?Hello, dear friends! Ben here! Gold has made a false breakout at $2,637 and is now searching for strong support. The current situation is highly complex, both fundamentally and technically. Fundamentally, the situation remains challenging. Gold's weakness is influenced by the Fed's hawkish stance and the strength of the US Dollar. However, upward pressure on gold persists due to other factors, including the escalation of conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, Trump’s protectionist policies targeting Europe and Asia, and rising geopolitical risks worldwide. Technically, after the false breakout at $2,637 (previously a resistance level), the price is now heading toward a new testing zone around $2,622. Below that, the ascending channel support at $2,606 could act as the lower boundary where buyers may start an aggressive play. Key Support Levels: $2,622, $2,606 Key Resistance Levels: $2,637, $2,647, $2,665 Overall, I lean toward a medium-term bearish trend. However, the local situation remains tense and complicated. If the bulls manage to hold their ground within the ascending channel, gold may continue its upward move. But! If buyers fail to maintain their position within the channel, a correction could extend the downward momentum further, leading to deeper declines. Best regards, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
USDJPY → Consolidating Before the Next Rally.Hello, dear friends! Ben here! USD/JPY is consolidating after a strong bullish run, fluctuating around the 157.75 level. The Japanese Yen continues to weaken amid wavering expectations regarding a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI was revised lower to 50.9 from 51.4 in December. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains near a two-year high, supported by the Fed's hawkish shift, further bolstering the USD/JPY pair. Currently, the focus is on the consolidation phase, which has been forming over the past few weeks. We have clear boundaries, trends, and key levels to guide our trading decisions. For me, the trigger lies at the 158 resistance level. A breakout and price consolidation above this level would confirm that the pair is ready to push higher. This rally is expected to reach the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 159, completing wave 5 within the channel. Regards !
Long
by Bentradegold
3
GOLD Update: Should I buy it?OANDA:XAUUSD continues to attract attention even as the US dollar strengthens, fueled by ongoing geopolitical and economic crises that drive demand for safe-haven assets. Prices are consolidating above previous resistance levels and are pushing toward establishing new local highs. As for gold's price volatility, the upcoming week will feature several key US economic data releases, including employment reports and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes. These updates are expected to provide investors with greater clarity on the Fed's monetary policy, especially following projections of interest rate cuts in 2025. Regarding the gold strategy for the new week, Ben personally prioritizes buying strategies if the price remains within the wedge, targeting at least the upper boundary of the price channel. This anticipated upward move is expected to reach the level of 2690.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
EUR/USD --> The Bears Are Applying Strong PressureFX:EURUSD in a strong downtrend, the market has just set a new local low with no signs of stopping. What lies ahead? The Euro is under significant pressure against the strength of the US dollar, which has been bolstered by the aggressive economic policies from the Trump era. The rising greenback has not only diminished the Euro's appeal but has also added further turbulence to the forex market. Under current conditions, the 1.1000 level has emerged as a critical point, drawing significant attention from major institutional players in the market. Resistance levels: 1.033, 1.0448 Support levels: 1.000 From both a technical and fundamental perspective, the outlook remains weak. As such, emphasis should be placed on strong resistance levels where the downtrend is likely to resume.
Short
by Bentradegold
Opening (IRA): EWZ Oct 17th 26/45 Short Call Vertical... for a 1.13 credit. Comments: I'm fairly certain that I'm going to be assigned on my January 17th 26 short put, so am going out to October to sell a spread with the short leg at the 26 strike that pays at least 1.00. The reason I do this (sell a call for at least 1.00), is that this enables me to roll the short call down a strike by 1.00 without giving up profit potential if I need to. The 26 short call aspect of this spread will become the short call aspect of an October 17th 26 covered call, with the covered call setup having a break even of the strike at which I was assigned (26) minus the 1.13 in credit I got paid for this spread or 24.87. Because I haven't been assigned shares yet and short calls are generally verboten in a cash secured account like an IRA, I've had to pay a few bones (.05 to be exact), to define the risk of the short call. I also had to pay a debit that is equal to the width of the spread (19.00) minus the credit received of 1.13 or 17.87 for the spread. I'm fine with this, since this buying power will eventually free up when I get assigned. Naturally, the October expiry is extremely long-dated. I'm fine with this here, since EWZ pays a fairly decent dividend, albeit only in June and December.
AMEX:EWZShort
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TAN January 17th 33 Covered Call... for a 32.29 debit. Comments: ETF IV > 35% with 30-day currently at 39.7%. Adding to my position at strikes better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Dinking and doinking on "little stuff" running into year's end ... . Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 32.29/share Max Profit: .71 ROC at Max: 2.20% 50% Max: .36 ROC at 50% Max: 1.10% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.
AMEX:TANLong
by NaughtyPines