EURUSD → Efforts to shift the global trendFX:EURUSD breaking the boundaries of the prolonged downtrend channel, the pair is currently struggling below the resistance level at 1.0448, aiming for consolidation that could set the stage for a further rally of at least 100 to 200 pips.
The global trend remains bearish, and it is still too early to confidently declare a reversal. Prices are facing significant pressure at the critical resistance level of 1.0448. However, signs of a potential breakout are beginning to emerge in this area. If the US dollar continues its corrective movement, EURUSD could have a chance to confirm a shift in the current trend. A decisive breakout above 1.0448, followed by consolidation, could pave the way for the next bullish momentum.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance levels: 1.0448, 1.0607
Support levels: 1.033, 1.0222
Currently, all eyes are on the critical resistance level of 1.0448. A breakout and stability above this level could provide an attractive entry point for long positions, setting the stage for the next phase of growth.
Sincerely, Bentradegold!
Optionsstrategies
Gold prices continue to increase from the level 2675OANDA:XAUUSD continuing the uptrend in local and medium-term timeframes. The price is once again testing strong resistance levels on the H4 chart, with prospects for a breakout toward the 2700–2750 range.
The US Dollar remains near weekly lows, touched after weaker-than-expected US PPI data on Tuesday, providing key support for the market, including gold. Attention now shifts to the upcoming CPI report, a critical release that could reshape market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. A stronger-than-expected CPI could increase pressure on gold, while a weaker report would bolster buying momentum. Additionally, the Fed’s hawkish stance is supported by the premise that Trump, beginning his second term next week, may drive inflation higher with protectionist policies.
From a technical perspective, significant volume lies ahead, which could trigger a minor pullback toward support before the uptrend resumes.
Key short-term levels to watch:
Support: 2678, 2670
Resistance: 2690, 2697
However, in both the short and medium term, everything hinges on the upcoming scheduled news. Stay focused on these critical levels, traders!
Best regards, Bentradegold!
Opening (IRA): XBI February 21st 83 Covered Call... for a 81.26 debit.
Comments: Adding at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 81.26/share
Max Profit: 1.74
ROC at Max: 2.14%
50% Max: .87
ROC at 50% Max: 1.07%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.
VZ Verizon Communications Options Ahead of EarningsIf you didn’t exit VZ before the selloff:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of VZ Verizon Communications prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 38.50usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-1-31,
for a premium of approximately $0.68.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
stock for swing KRN Heat Exchanger and Refrigeration Ltd
TF-1DAY
The stock was in a consolidation phase and now it has broken the upper side level.if this candle sustains the 880 level then make plan for entry
STOPLOSS-820
TARGET-940-980-1000++
KRN Heat Exchanger and Refrigeration (KHERL), manufactures fin and tube-type heat exchangers for the Heat Ventilation Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Industry.
Weekly GEX Insights: 01/13 SPX dropTotal Correction? What Can an Options Trader Do in This Situation? How Far Might We Fall This Week? We’ll tackle these questions in this week’s options newsletter!
It looks like the new president hasn’t even been sworn in yet, but the market is already reacting with fear to every statement he makes. Last week’s economic data didn’t help ease those concerns either.
SPX Weekly Analysis
Friday’s red candle set a bearish tone heading into this week. Everyone is predicting and pricing in a potential market apocalypse, and I keep getting the same question: “Greg, how far can we fall?”
My answer remains the same: we can fall indefinitely—nobody can know for certain ahead of time.
What we can do, however, is analyze our charts and use the our weekly GEX profile to identify the key levels, so we can better understand the market’s dynamics.
Examining expirations through Friday, every NETGEX profile is negative , so we can expect volatile movements this week. We’re currently trading below the HVL level, which means that market makers are likely to move in tandem with retail traders. This typically results in bigger swings.
We already saw this heightened volatility last week—just look at the size of the candles, and you can tell how quickly sentiment can shift.
Below 5965 (the HVL level), we are in a high volatility zone what lies underneath?
1st Support Range: 5780–5800
5800: Currently the strongest PUT support level on the downside. A correction may pause here due to profit-taking.
Right beneath this level is the previous gap-fill zone. Remember, these areas function as ranges rather than single lines, as I’ve highlighted down to 5780. This could easily be a take-profit target for traders playing gap fills—an approach that’s quite popular.
2nd Support Range: 5700–5650 (Very Strong)
Starting at 5700: We encounter another robust PUT support zone.
This area is reinforced by previous lows, previous highs, and the 4/8 grid boundary from our indicator.
Even if nowhere else, many expect at least a local rebound to occur within these levels.
Putting it all together, it’s clear that the weekly trading range is shaping up to be roughly between 5680 and 5965, expecting big & volatile moves.
Remember, CPI and PPI data are coming out on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could trigger additional volatility.
When looking at SPX, SPY, or /ES futures, my opinion is that the rapidly spiking implied volatility (IV) during a market drop, along with a PUT pricing skew, can present favorable opportunities for options traders. The distance to the strongest lower support zone is around 100–150 points, so you could:
Trade directionally for the short term—hoping to be either right or wrong quickly, or
Try to profit from the market situation in a more strategic way (which is what I typically do).
Personally, I prefer the second approach:
I’ll open short-term (a few days) credit put ratio spreads for a small credit, which gives me a wide breakeven range and a big “tent” on the downside.
Opening (IRA): IBIT February 28th 49.5 Covered Call... for a 47.52 debit.
Comments: High IV/IVR. Back into IBIT on a little bit of weakness here, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. The March monthly is still a bit long in duration for my tastes, so going with a weekly.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.52/share
Max Profit: 1.98
ROC at Max: 4.17%
50% Max: .99
ROC at 50% Max: 2.09%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit test, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at break evens better than what I currently have on.
Opening (IRA): EWY July 18th 35C/February 21st -55C PMCC*... for an 18.17 debit.
Comments: Back into EWY, after missing out on the dividend due to my shares being called away. Since there is no longer a dividend to be had, going with a Poor Man's Covered Call/long call diagonal, buying the longer-dated 90 delta strike and selling a shorter-dated call that pays for all of the extrinsic in the long, resulting in a setup that has a break even slightly below where the underlying is currently trading.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 18.17
Break Even: 53.17
Max Profit: 1.83
ROC at Max: 10.07%
50% Max: .92
ROC at 50% Max: 5.04%
Delta/Theta: 46.50/.751
Will look to money/take/run at 50% max.
Opening (IRA): TLT March 21st 81 Covered Call... for a 79.98 debit.
Comments: Adding a "rung" in March at a break even better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 79.98/share
Max Profit (Excluding Dividends): 1.02
ROC at Max (Excluding Dividends): 1.28%
Generally looking to roll out-of-the-money short call down and out for a credit that is greater than the amount of strike destruction at expiry to generate a quasi-free cash flow setup consisting of (a) short call premium; and (b) dividends. This differs somewhat than what I would ordinarily do, which is generally money/take/run at 50% max.
Opening (IRA): URTY January 17th 51 Covered Call.. for a 49.25 debit.
Comments: With my usual leveraged go-to TQQQ in kind of the IV doldrums (IVR 18.1/IV 49.6), opting for a play in URTY with its 63.4% 30-Day IV instead. It's not as liquid and doesn't have nearly as robust an options chain as TQQQ, but I will make do.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 49.25/share
Max Profit: 1.75
ROC at Max: 3.55%
50% Max: .88
ROC at 50% Max: 1.78%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on test of take profit price, and add should I be able to get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on.
Opening (IRA): MSTR 2x225/2x240/460/490 Iron Condor... for a 7.00 credit.
Comments: IV remains high here at 112.4%. Going "double double" (put spread half the width of the call spread, but 2 x the number of contracts) to accommodate skew. Earnings are on 2/4, so will probably want to get out before then.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 7.00
Buying Power Effect: 23.00
ROC at Max: 30.43%
50% Max: 3.50
ROC at 50% Max: 15.22%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in untested side on side test to about half the delta of the tested side. Given earnings on the horizon, will naturally just money/take/run for less if presented with the opportunity.
Opening (IRA): URTY February 21st 41 Covered Call... for a 39.07 debit.
Comments: Adding in at strikes better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. I would prefer using TNA, since it's more liquid and has more expiries available, but already have a position on in TNA where the short call strike is at or above the -75, so don't want to add here.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 39.07/share
Max Profit: 1.93
ROC at Max: 4.94%
50% Max: .97
ROC at 50% Max: 2.47%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short call if the setup doesn't hit my take profit.
Opening (IRA): TNA February 21st 34 Covered Call... for a 32.45 debit.
Comments: Adding at strikes better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 32.45/share
Max Profit: 1.55
ROC at Max: 4.78%
50% Max: .78
ROC at 50% Max: 2.39%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max ... .
Opening (IRA): TAN Nov 15th 37 Covered Call... for a 35.89 debit.
Comments: Relatively decent IV here at 42.8%. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a +25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 35.89
Max Profit: 1.11
ROC at Max: 3.09%
50% Max: .56
ROC at 50% Max: 1.55%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll out short call on test.
Opening (IRA): EWZ January 17th 23 Short Put... for a .71 credit.
Comments: Here, I'm just trying to reduce my cost basis in my shares of stock (which is kind of an "ugh" at 31.65), so looking to take assignment at $23/share. Because of this, I will look to run this all the way to expiry, at which point I either get assigned or it expires worthless.
Metrics:
Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 22.29
Max Profit: .71
ROC at Max: 3.19%
WFC Wells Fargo & Company Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought WFC before the breakout:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of WFC Wells Fargo & Company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 70usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-3-21,
for a premium of approximately $2.82.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Opening (IRA): IBIT February 21st 47 Covered Call... for a 44.52 debit.
Comments: Adding to my position at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta strike against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 44.52/share
Max Profit: 2.48
ROC at Max: 5.57%
50% Max: 1.24
ROC at 50% Max: 2.79%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit point test.
Opening (IRA): TNA Feb 21st 36 Covered Call... for a 34.33 debit.
Comments: Starter position on weakness/high IV in lieu of the less liquid URTY. Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 34.33/share
Max Profit: 1.67
ROC at Max: 4.86%
50% Max: .84
ROC at 50% Max: 2.43%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals should I be able to get in at break evens better than what I currently have on.
Opening (IRA): IBIT February 21st 50 Covered Call... for a 47.07 debit.
Comments: High IVR/IV (88.4/68.6) + weakness post-FOMC. Going out to February, as there are only 30 DTE left in January, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Looking at this as a "starter" position, so will look to add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.07/share
Max Profit: 2.93
ROC at Max: 6.22%
50% Max: 1.47
ROC at 50% Max: 3.11%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit point test.
Opening (IRA): MSTR 180/210/410/440 Iron Condor... for a 6.03 credit.
Comments: High IV at 95.8%. Here, going delta neutral, 1/10th the price of the underlying for my wing width, and setting up my short option strikes at the 16 delta on both sides.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 6.03
Buying Power Effect: 23.97
ROC at Max: 25.16%
50% Max: 3.02
ROC at 50% Max: 12.58%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll in untested side on side test.
$SPY Weekly Options | Last Week's Put +185%AMEX:SPY
Our range is $570 to $589 with our entry pivot at $580. For these options, we use 15-30 minute candle CLOSES for confirmation and stop-loss.
📜 $585 CALL 1/27
Entry: Confirmation over $580
Target🎯: $584, $585, $589, $595
📜 $570 PUT 1/27
Entry: Confirmation below $580
Target🎯: $575, $570