Carvana Leading Auto Retail – Outpacing LAD & AN-Financial Performance & Momentum:
Carvana reported a record-breaking adjusted EBITDA of $488M in Q1 2025, up $253M YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 11.5% (+3.8pp YoY). The company's strong operational efficiency positions it as a leader in the auto retail industry, nearly doubling the margins of competitors like Lithia Motors (LAD) and AutoNation (AN).
- Competitive Positioning & Growth Outlook:
Carvana’s EBITDA quality is superior due to lower non-cash expenses, enhancing long-term sustainability. The company expects sequential EBITDA growth in Q2 and targets 13.5% EBITDA margins within 5-10 years.
-Peer Comparison:
- Lithia Motors (LAD): EBITDA margin at 4.4% (up from 4% YoY), facing tariff-related headwinds that could impact pricing and demand.
- AutoNation (AN): SG&A as a percentage of gross profit rose to 67.5% in Q1, expected to stay between 66-67% in FY 2025, pressuring margins further.
-Options Flow & Institutional Activity - Key Levels: $350/$370
Recent institutional flow activity indicates strong positioning around $350/$370 strikes, potentially signaling a vertical spread in play rather than outright selling:
1️⃣ Momentum Confirmation:
- CVNA has strong upside momentum following its Q1 results, reinforcing a bullish outlook for near-term price action.
- Institutional traders may be accumulating bullish vertical spreads rather than unwinding positions.
Vertical Spread Setup ($350/$370 Strikes)
- Long Call ($350 Strike) → Signals expectations for further upside.
- Short Call ($370 Strike) → Caps max profit while reducing cost.
- Breakeven Price: $359 → CVNA must close above $359 for profitability.
Profit & Risk Zones
- Above $370: Maximum profit achieved.
- Between $359-$370: Partial profit zone (spread remains in play).
- Below $359: Spread loses value, making recovery dependent on extended upside momentum.
Optionstrader
IOT Samsara Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold IOT before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of IOT Samsara prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 44usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-6-6,
for a premium of approximately $1.90.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
RBRK Rubrik Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RBRK Rubrik prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 90usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-6-20,
for a premium of approximately $5.60.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NVDA GEX Earnings Outlook by OptionsNVDA reports earnings this Wednesday, and it’s a big deal. A major move could impact both the indexes and broader tech sector.
The OTM 16 delta curve essentially overlaps with both the GEX profile and the expected probability zone — signaling strong confluence.
📈 Rising IV with falling call skew: Volatility is rising into earnings, while the call skew is dropping — a sign of growing interest in downside hedging/speculation.
🔷 Key inflection zone (129): Above 129, the market is unlikely to surprise. Below it, however, a domino effect could trigger increased volatility and put-side flows.
Implied move into earnings is 6.62%, reflecting binary risk expectations from the options market.
Strong gamma squeeze territory exists between 140–145, with significant call wall buildup around 140.
The nearest expiry shows a positive net GEX — supporting short-term mean-reversion or hedging flow stability above 129, at least until the earnings print.
🔴 Downside risk scenario:
In the event of a downward move, the market is most heavily hedged around the 125 level, which aligns with the deepest put support.
💡 Wheeling Opportunity Idea
ONLY IF you want to own NVDA long-term around the $130 level (even if it drops short/mid-term), this might be a great time to start the wheeling strategy.
Because earnings inflate volatility, you can sell a near-term cash-secured put (CSP) for solid premium — even on a 53DTE (July) option.
Based on current GEX levels, we’re seeing:
-Support (squeeze zone) around $125
-Call resistance around $140
-A potential upside squeeze extending to $145-$150
These align roughly with ~20 delta OTM options, so the premium is attractive.
How would I personally start this:
Sell a CSP for May 30 with the intention to get assigned if NVDA drops.
If I do get assigned, I’m happy to own shares.
Then, I sell a 60DTE covered call right after to collect another round of premium.
If I’m not assigned, I sell a new 45–60DTE put the following week — still benefiting from the relatively high IV.
👉 Remember: High IV = synthetic time value. With this two-step method, you can harvest premium twice in quick succession.
I used the same technique with NASDAQ:INTC , and it’s been performing well.
💥 ONLY IF you want to own NVDA long-term around the $130 level (even if it drops short/mid-term)!
GOOGL Alphabet Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on GOOGL:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of GOOGL Alphabet prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 200usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-2-7,
for a premium of approximately $7.20.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
ZS Zscaler Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on ZS:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ZS Zscaler prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 250usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2026-1-16,
for a premium of approximately $29.30.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Personal Trade Plan – Nifty50 25100 June Call OptionToday, I entered a long position in the Nifty50 25100 June (Monthly) Call option , securing an average price of ₹469.10 . I plan to accumulate additional lots at lower prices, with a strategy to hold until expiry.
📌 Disclaimer: This is not a trade recommendation. Please conduct independent research and assess risk factors before making any trading decisions.
#nifty50
RUM Rumble Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought RUM before the recent rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RUM Rumble prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 10usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-11-21,
for a premium of approximately $1.20.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
WULF TeraWulf Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought WULF before the rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of WULF TeraWulf prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 2usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2026-1-16,
for a premium of approximately $0.43.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
AMZN Amazon Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought AMZN before the previous rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AMZN Amazon prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 210usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-6-20,
for a premium of approximately $3.75.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
CHTR Charter Communications Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CHTR Charter Communications prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 360usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-9-19,
for a premium of approximately $22.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
TMC the metals company Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on TMC:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of TMC the metals company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 2.00usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-5-16,
for a premium of approximately $0.20.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
GEX Analysis & Options “Game Plan”🔶 Short- and longer-term perspective in a high IV, negative GEX environment
🔶 KEY LEVELS & RANGES
Spot: 221
Gamma Flip / Transition: around 250 (the turquoise zone on the chart)
– This zone typically marks a “power shift.” If price decisively breaks above 250 and holds, market makers’ gamma positioning could flip from neutral/negative to positive.
Put Support: 200
– A large negative gamma position has accumulated here, making 200 a strong support level. If it breaks, the downside may accelerate.
Call Resistance: 400
– A major long-term “call wall” where a significant amount of OTM calls are concentrated. It’s more relevant to LEAPS; currently far from spot, so not a realistic short-term target.
Call Resistance #2: 300
– A medium-term bullish objective, still above the 200-day MA. You’d need to be strongly bullish to aim for ~300 by May (e.g., going for a 16-delta OTM call).
Short-Term / Intermediate GEX Levels:
– There are gamma clusters around 220–230 and 250–260 . These areas often see higher volatility, possible bounces, or stalls (chop) due to hedging flows.
🔶 WHATEVER SCENARIO – SHORT TERM (0–30 DAYS)
A) Upside Continuation / Rebound
– If TSLA closes above 225–230 , the next target is 240–250 (transition / gamma flip).
– If it breaks above 250 and holds (e.g., successful retest), market makers may shift to “long gamma,” fueling a quicker move to 260–270 .
– Resistance: 250, 300, with an extreme LEAPS-level at 400.
B) Downside Move / Bearish Break
– If price dips below ~220 and sustains, the next targets are 210–200 (major put wall / negative gamma).
– If 200 fails, negative gamma may magnify the sell-off. It’s an extreme scenario but still on the table given high IV and macro/geopolitical risks.
– Support: 210, 200 — likely stronger buying interest near 200, possibly a short-term bounce.
– The options chain suggests near-term hedging via puts for this scenario.
C) Chop / Sideways
– If TSLA stays in 210–230 , market makers (short options) might benefit from high IV/time decay.
– Negative GEX, however, can trigger sudden moves in either direction; caution is advised.
🔶 LONGER-TERM FOCUS (6–12 MONTHS, LEAPS)
NET GEX = -61.97M (negative territory) suggests longer-dated positioning is also put-heavy or carries notable negative gamma.
HVL / pTrans = 250 is a key pivot; cTrans+ = 400 is distant call resistance. Between these levels, there’s a mix of put/call dominance.
If Tesla undergoes a fresh growth phase (AI, robotaxi, energy storage, etc.) and clears 250/300 , 400 could become the next significant call wall — but that’s more of a multi-month horizon.
🔶 STRATEGY IDEAS (High IV Environment)
1. Short-Term Bearish
– If you’re bearish and expecting TSLA to test 220–210, consider a bear put spread or net credit put butterfly (lower debit) to leverage high IV.
– Targeting 200, but keep in mind negative gamma may accelerate downside movement.
2. Medium-Term “Contra” Bullish (bounce to 250)
– If GEX suggests a bounce off 210–220, consider a bull call spread (e.g., 220/240) or a net debit call butterfly (220/240/250).
– Be mindful of sudden swings, as we remain in negative gamma territory.
3. Longer-Term Bullish (>3–6 months)
– A call butterfly with upper strikes around 300–350 offers capped debit and higher potential payoff if a bigger rally materializes.
– A diagonal spread (selling nearer-dated calls, buying further-out calls) exploits elevated front-end IV.
4. Neutral / Range-Bound
– If TSLA stays in 200–250 , you could use Iron Condors (e.g., 200/260) to benefit from time decay and any IV collapse.
– Exercise caution: negative gamma can generate abrupt, directional moves, making a neutral stance riskier than usual.
🔶 ADDITIONAL NOTES & “BIG PICTURE”
High IV & Negative GEX: TSLA has a track record of large swings. Negative GEX can intensify sell-offs, while forced hedging might trigger rapid rebounds.
Preferred Structures: With expensive premiums, spreads (vertical, diagonal) and butterfly configurations generally fare better than plain long options (less vulnerable to time decay).
Potential Catalysts: AI announcements, Autopilot breakthroughs, new product lines, and macro changes can swiftly alter market dynamics. Keep tracking GEX updates and news flow; TSLA tends to respond dramatically to fresh developments.
🔶 Bottom line: From 221 spot, watch 210–200 on the downside and 240–250 on the upside short term. Medium-term bullish target = 300 , while 400 remains a far LEAPS scenario. High IV + negative gamma = fast, potentially volatile moves — so risk management and spread-based approaches are crucial.
Tesla's Tipping Point: The $662 Bet That Could Return $12K TSLA bearish play thesis focused on buying 2 contracts of the $190 PUT (May 2, 2025) at $3.31 each. This version scales up all profit/loss values and ROI calculations to reflect a 2-contract position (i.e., 200 shares total).
🧠 TSLA Bearish Earnings Thesis – 2 Contract Play
Earnings Date: April 28, 2025
Option Expiration: May 2, 2025
Strategy: Buy 2x TSLA $190 PUTs @ $3.31
Total Cost (Premium Paid): $662 ($3.31 × 100 × 2)
Breakeven: $186.69
Thesis: Multiple Converging Catalysts Suggest Sharp Downside Risk
Tesla is facing a perfect storm of fundamental, technical, and sentiment-driven challenges. These create a highly asymmetric opportunity for short-dated PUT buyers heading into earnings.
⚠️ 1. Earnings Risk – Underperformance Expected
Delivery Misses: Q1 delivery numbers fell short of analyst expectations. Slower ramp in key markets like China and Europe due to economic slowdowns.
Margin Compression: Aggressive price cuts to maintain volume are eating into margins. Expectations for gross margin contraction YoY are high.
Disrupted Guidance: Potential downside revision to full-year forecasts as competition heats up (BYD, Ford, Rivian, etc.).
❝ Street is pricing in perfection. Any earnings or margin disappointment could send shares sharply lower. ❞
🧨 2. Brand Boycotts & Political Fallout
Public Backlash: Tesla faces intensifying boycott pressure in parts of Europe and the U.S. due to Elon Musk's political affiliations and controversial stances.
Brand Dilution: Musk’s polarizing presence has damaged Tesla's once-premium EV image. High-income, eco-conscious buyers are switching brands.
Retail Sentiment Shift: Reddit, X (formerly Twitter), and retail forums show sharp decline in "diamond hand" loyalty.
❝ Tesla’s brand equity is eroding. Negative sentiment is now a structural overhang. ❞
🔺 3. Headline Volatility – The “Musk Premium” Now a Liability
SEC & DOJ Scrutiny: Multiple ongoing investigations. Any bad headline can crash the stock.
X (Twitter) Overhang: Distraction and capital risk tied to Musk’s ownership of X are ongoing market concerns.
AI Pivot Uncertainty: Musk’s recent AI pushes have created confusion about Tesla’s core vision, with no clear monetization path.
❝ Musk headlines, once a tailwind, are now a systemic volatility trigger. ❞
📊 Modeled P&L for 2 Contracts
TSLA Price on May 2 % Drop Option Value per Contract Total Value (x2) Net Profit ROI (%)
$220 -16.5% $30.00 $6,000 $5,338 806%
$210 -20.3% $40.00 $8,000 $7,338 1,108%
$200 -24.1% $50.00 $10,000 $9,338 1,410%
$190 -27.9% $60.00 $12,000 $11,338 1,712%
$186.69 (Breakeven) -29.2% $63.31 $12,662 $12,000 1,812%
$263.55 (No drop) 0% $0.00 $0 - $662 -100%
💡 Strategy Recap – 2 Contract Position
Metric Value
Strike $190 PUT
Contracts 2
Premium $3.31 × 100 × 2 = $662
Breakeven $186.69
Max Risk $662
Max Reward $12,662
Reward/Risk Ratio ~19:1
✅ Final Thesis (2 Contracts)
"With $662 risked, a move to $200–$210 can yield ~$8,000. A move to $190 or below offers potential returns of over $11,000, making this a powerful short-term asymmetric play post-earnings. While risky, it’s tightly capped with a clearly defined thesis."
HUMA Humacyte Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought HUMA before the previous rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of HUMA Humacyte prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 2.5usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-4-17,
for a premium of approximately $0.62.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
OUST Ouster Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of OUST Ouster prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 20usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2026-1-16,
for a premium of approximately $0.75.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NIO Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought NIO before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NIO prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 6usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-6-20,
for a premium of approximately $0.47.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought HPE before the previous earnings:
Noe analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 20usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-3-21,
for a premium of approximately $0.52.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
LFWD Lifeward Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LFWD Lifeward prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 2.50usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-7-18,
for a premium of approximately $0.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
RKLB Rocket Lab USA Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought RKLB before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RKLB Rocket Lab USA prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 21.5usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-3-7,
for a premium of approximately $1.62.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
GEO The GEO Group Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t bought the dip on GEO:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of GEO The GEO Group prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 26usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-4-17,
for a premium of approximately $3.10.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
RIVN Rivian Automotive Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold RIVN after the recalls:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RIVN Rivian Automotive prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 16usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-4-17,
for a premium of approximately $0.93.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
MP Materials Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought MP before the previuos earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MP Materials prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 25usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-6-20,
for a premium of approximately $2.97.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
DVA DaVita Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of DVA DaVita prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 175usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-2-21,
for a premium of approximately $8.45.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.