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SPY Broken Wing ButterflyGetting my # of occurrences in a small account. SPY has been on a tear lately and want to capture a bit of the upside, without any risk to the downside. Trade Setup : -1 SPY Mar 17 236/237/237/239 Call Butterfly @ 0.19 DTE: 29 Max Win: $119 Max Loss: $81 Breakeven: $238.19 Trade Management: Best case scenario, SPY trades around 237 near March expiration for close to max profit. I'll likely look to take 50% out of this. $0 downside risk on trade and will let expire or cover for close to nothing if we get a move down. Fits risk parameters here as well, although we would appreciate some IV increases across the board. Green is profit zone; vertical bar is expiration.
AMEX:SPY
by Benji
XRT Iron FlyStill looking for any IV in the market - XRT had a 35 IVP, so I thought I would put something small on. Focused on minimal BP exposure during these tough times in IV, but I have to keep a decent # of occurrences up regardless. Trade Setup: - 1 XRT Mar 17 42/44/44/46 Ironfly @ $1.34 DTE: 30 Max Win: $134 Max Loss: $66 Breakevens : 42.66 and 45.34 Trade Management: Look to take around 25% or $35 in the trade; Full loser on the trade or I may roll out the ITM/tested side if on the dance floor near exp. Green is profit zone; Vertical black bar is expiration.
AMEX:XRT
by Benji
Crude target of 52 almost achievedCrude is nearing the target of 52 after the breakout of the triangle after the OPEC meeting a couple weeks ago. RSI and Stochastik are now very much overbought and even generated some sell signals. Also, as of now, there is a divergence in stochastik and RSI indicating the market is due for a correction sideways or lower. Without any fundamental news a correction is imminent. However this correction might well be sideways. Overall physical trading volume has slowed according to my sources after the panic buying spree shortly following the OPEC meeting. Overall we are in an uptrend, and I would expect we ll at least test the highs made earlier this year around 52. Some light call spread selling might be good, but IMHO being conservative is the right play. No buying of downside options as that premium will just decay.
TVC:USOIL
by mjhillpp
OPEC meeting, breakout of triangleMarket has been narrowing awaiting the OPEC meeting. Trading volume has declined going into tighter trading ranges (red triangle). This is a great example for a symmetric triangle. Breakout direction to be determined. Also, the greater picture shows a slowing uptrend leading into a very long term triangle. Patience is required. My bias would be leading to the downside breakout following the OPEC meeting, but I will wait and see. Either way once braking out I am looking into getting into some short put or call spreads depending on direction
TVC:USOIL
by mjhillpp
1
Downtrend manifests, watch out for seasonal low in late AugustDowntrend has established after topping at 50. The 200 day MA (yellow) provided some support for now, but on the upside the 7 day MA (red) acts as resistance in this downtrend channel. I am looking for another test of the lows at 39. Further support comes in at 36 then 33. Option idea to consider IMHO: as we near upper trend line: --> sell call spreads and buy a put as we near lower end, get out and sell p spreads (dont buy calls here)
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by mjhillpp
LULU SCALING UP Possible 123 pattern. Earning announcement in Sep 8th. If your looking for a quick trade best to wait for 4th pattern to develop as an entry point to go long. 2nd options is aggressive and its shorting at the resistances level 3rd pattern, then exiting near (or reaching near) 4th pattern. Anomaly movement is no rally to the 5th pattern point, consolidation (horizontal pattern), or decline. However caution on false break tho, because the trend is your friend. RSI is oversold so possible pop to the 3rd pattern could develop from now (Aug) to Sep. If stock is up nearing earnings release then I expect 4 scenarios. For instance a positive announcement I expect a gap up and maybe an overreaching of pattern 3, followed by a declining developing a 4 pattern. In contrast, if the announcement is bad and LULU is around the price level of patter 3 of the channel I expect a gap down to the forth pattern in the channel. 3rd is if earnings announcement is mixed, which most likely still precluded to be negative either way then expect a decline. lastly, nothing will happen and the only movement is intraday noise - hence the fluctuation between patterns 1 & 2. Longterm trend may remain the same.
NASDAQ:LULULong
by TraderMD
KC shortUpdate on a upsloping trendline (blue) which acts as resistance On the 5 hour chart, we should have generated a sell signal. I still remain short via puyt spread 1x2s, as frost is no longer an issue. It appears the market is still digesting this from last week and should correct lower IMHO as physical supplies out of Brazil remain steady. Warehouse stocks in EU and US plenty as well. Dont get me wrong, as shown in the blue channel, even if we have a correction lower, the blue trend channel might indicate a change in trend, however the frost damage is simply not there and in order to rally, this market would need breaking news like that.... without anything of that sort coming out, I see a correction lower before making new highs. Still, knowing coffee, I remain short with 1x2 calendar spreads, buying the downside 1 leg in one month and selling 2 lower puts in a month further back.
KShort
by mjhillpp
2
Rising wedge, but for now running into supportAs we see some support is coming in from our longer term trend channel as well as the lower Bbands. So far the last three weeks have provided with the expected sideways action once reaching 50. Selling calls has been the right strategy so far (51, 52 and 53 calls). At this support I am covering my short calls, but will hold of selling any put spreads to see how the FOMC decision plays out. I would not be surprised to see no rate hike and crude test some downside targets. For now, neutral, but getting ready to sell some downside put spreads once we breach the support (if we do)
NYMEX:CL1!
by mjhillpp
Binary Options Made Easy - EURUSD This is my method of trading Binary Options for the past 5 years trading only 30 minutes and hourly expiries. This method works 65 to 70% of the time and there are filters to further increase the winning %. We are not worried whether goes up or down. If it goes up, we SELL or place PUT options as it hits our SELL ZONES and buy areas where it drops and hits our BUY Zones. As required with any form of trading, no strategy works all the time. Avoid over trading. Will observe how these zones marked plays out in the days ahead. Money Management helps survive bad phases. Sticking to rules helps avoid emotional trading and maintain right psychology. We are looking to place CALL or PUT options in the confluence area of Buy/Sell Zones in confluence with Support and Resistance on hourly candles with 30 minutes / 60 minutes expiries. Will post results of the trades taken based on the areas marked.
by webcommunications
After reaching 50; sideways to lower. downside targetsAfter reaching 50, as expected some sideways action. sold the 52c around 1.05 around 2 weeks ago. I am neutral, because this looks like a correction of the prevailing uptrend as indicated in the dark red trendchannel. Downside support are the blue trend line at around 48.20 and the 20 day MA or middle BBand. Further on the downside we are looking at the lower trend channel between 46 and 47 For now I am covering the 52 calls and wait to sell some put spreads or puts until we reach the lower trend channel
NYMEX:CL1!
by mjhillpp
Binary Options Made Easy - Trading Opportunities on USDJPYThis is my method of trading Binary Options for the past 5 years trading only 30 minutes and hourly expiries. This method works 65 to 70% of the time and there are filters to further increase the winning %. We are not worried whether goes up or down. If it goes up, we SELL or place PUT options as it hits our SELL ZONES and buy areas where it drops and hits our BUY Zones. As required with any form of trading, no strategy works all the time. Avoid over trading. Will observe how these zones marked plays out in the days ahead. Money Management helps survive bad phases. Sticking to rules helps avoid emotional trading and maintain right psychology. We are looking to place CALL or PUT options in the confluence area of Buy/Sell Zones in confluence with Support and Resistance on hourly candles with 30 minutes / 60 minutes expiries. Will post results of the trades taken based on the areas marked.
by webcommunications
Looking for a short that wont go up as the S&P recovers? KODK is circling the drain. Their balance sheet and quarterly income is very unimpressive; they don't look like the books of a company on a rebound but rather a company winding down operations. Q4 2014 they had $260m~ assets over liabilities, that number is down to a scant $75m~. During the same period, cost of revenue is down about 17% vs revenue being down 'only' 13% but that's not terribly impressive. Don't get me wrong, I like film cameras. Working in a dark room to print your own photos is great. But it is a niche market that doesn't match up with Kodak's half billion market cap (they don't even make cameras mind you!) The film market is dominated by Polaroid, toy cameras, and pre-owned sales. Film and paper are not a monopoly for Kodak in the 21st century with Fuji, Ilford and others long pushing Kodak out of frame. This chart shows Kodak's next slide. The 1 day MACD is already breaking negative and the chart below is the 3-day MACD showing that the leveling/upturn from the start of this year is over. Kodak may as well have agreed to sell their wares exclusively at Radioshack. Much of what their current business is (business services etc) doesn't have the same economies of scale that Xerox and others have. They could have held some patents and licensed the remainder to get some revenue streams but it's too late now. Maybe Kodak is already "winding down" and doesn't want to acknowledge it publicly. They don't have to wind down to zero; they can still be a single factory film manufacturer, making a tidy profit for a few dozen employees. But a half billion dollar multinational? Sorry, but that image is fading fast. Bottom line: Buy put options for as far out as possible and sit on them---Take a higher strike price (>$8) if you are looking for a cheap bet, low strike price if you are looking for a super cheap bet.
NYSE:KODKShort
by RyanMartin