Stock Market Logic Series #7Options Spreads strategy, let us talk about it.
If you want to buy high-probability spreads, there are specific places where you have the advantage.
And, there are other specific places where it is just pure gambling.
And, we don't gamble, EVER.
We take calculated risks, where the probability of success is much higher than the probability of loss.
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In spread options, what matters the most is where the price will be at the expiration date.
WHY?
Because your profit can only be realized near the expiration date unless the price moves dramatically into your favor and far away from the spread strikes.
So, if what matters is where the price is at the expiration date, you want that in this future date, the price of the stock to be away from it, with HIGH PROBABILITY.
As you can see from the drawing on the chart,
the blue channel signifies the probability area of where the price should be in the future.
So if in the future, you are in the probable zone, as seen in the RED spreads, at the expiration date, the price could be below or above your strikes, and thus be successful or not successful, so your odds are more 50-50.
since the price can just stall there, and oscillate in this area, since it is the probable area where the price should be.
But if you look carefully at historical data, you can see that in the GREEN (MONEY ZONES), the price gets immediately rejected...
WITH THE HELP OF T-I-M-E
And when you buy spreads, you want TIME to be on your side...
So now you can easily see... how to make TIME which is a HUGE factor in spreads, on your side!
The trend is your friend... IF... you let it TIME to help you...
When you use options, and trading options in general you need to know which strategy fits which scenario, and where your HIGH probability trade waiting for you.
Just in case you don't know what options spreads are...
In simple words...
You choose 2 prices of the stock (aka strikes):
------$100
------$90
and you speculate that
if the price in a month will be above $100, you profit 1 point.
and if the price in a month will be below $90, you lose 1 point.
So it is a 1:1 risk-to-reward strategy.
So your advantage comes from knowing where are the pivot points.
But not all pivot points have the same advantage...
As I just showed you in this post...
Optionstrader
How to use call option buy or sell indicatorHello Traders,
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PARA Paramount Global Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PARA Paramount Global prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 12.50usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-6-21,
for a premium of approximately $1.15.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought NVDA before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NVDA NVIDIA Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 710usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-2-23,
for a premium of approximately $48.65.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
ADI Analog Devices Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ADI Analog Devices prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 195usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-3-15,
for a premium of approximately $3.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
LAZR Luminar Technologies Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LAZR Luminar Technologies prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 2.50usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-8-16,
for a premium of approximately $0.59.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
CNXFINANCE, FINNIFTY Analysis For Feb 20th!Hello Traders,
Here is a Brief Overview About The Analysis of FINNIFTY For Feb 20th,
There Are Total of 2 Support Zones Which You Need To Look For And Same 2 Resistance Zones And To Be Mentioned One Grey Area And We Have 3 Imbalance Zones!
Important Level To Be Mentioned : 20600, If it Crosses It's Trending Otherwise, Downside OR Consolidate a Bit.
The Horizontal Lines From Volume To Volume And OI To OI Indicates The Market Range in Between For That Particular Day!
The Blue And Red Arrow Path Showing The Direction of The FINNIFTY For Tomorrow.
Note : Those Levels Are Only For That Particular Day.
Please Note That The Only Purpose of The Information On This Page is Purely Educational.
We Are Not Registered with SEBI; Therefore, Before Making Any Financial Decisions OR Investing, Please Consult with A SEBI-Qualified Financial Advisor. We Don't Have Any Responsibility For Your Profits OR Losses.
I Would Welcome Your Participation And Support in the Form of Likes, Comments, And Follow us to Offer Some Encouragement.
Thank You.
CROX Crocs Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold CROX before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CROX Crocs prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 107usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-2-16,
for a premium of approximately $3.90.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
ABR Arbor Realty Trust Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ABR Arbor Realty Trust prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 13usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-3-15,
for a premium of approximately $1.87.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
LLY Eli Lilly Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought LLY before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LLY Eli Lilly prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 680usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-2-16,
for a premium of approximately $15.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
PINS Pinterest Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold PINS ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PINS Pinterest prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 38usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-2-9,
for a premium of approximately $3.10.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
CVS Health Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CVS Health Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 75usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-2-9,
for a premium of approximately $1.00.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
MA Mastercard Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold MA on its exposure to Russia news:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MA Mastercard prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 450usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-3-15,
for a premium of approximately $7.90.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 130usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-3-15,
for a premium of approximately $6.25.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
ENPH Enphase Energy Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold ENPH before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ENPH Enphase Energy prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 102usd strike price at the money Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-2-9,
for a premium of approximately $7.65.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
BP p.l.c. Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of BP p.l.c. prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 36usd strike price in the money Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-7-19,
for a premium of approximately $3.00.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
📊 Earnings Edge: Diagonal Debit Dynamics - #2 Trade in 20242024 Trading Challenge Entry #2: Diary of an Option Trader
💡 Trade Overview:
I noticed LLY soaring on the TradingView stock heatmap today. Observing the monthly chart of AMEX:XLE (healthcare sector), it has been mostly sideways for years. However, in the past two days, NYSE:LLY has demonstrated strong bullish movement with increasing volume, indicating a potential uptrend. I strategized to profit from a possible breakout or continued trend within an ascending triangle pattern.
📊 Option Strategy choice:
Given the high IVR of 42 and an upcoming earnings report on February 6th before market, I anticipate further price rise. I pondered various strategies:
Single leg call: Not preferable due to increasing breakeven with time.
Naked put/credit vertical spread: Not ideal close to earnings, expecting IVR increase.
OTM calendar: Avoided due to back month’s illiquidity.
ATM calendar: Lower upper breakeven point was a concern.
Noticing that IV was higher for the front-month compared to the back-month, likely due to the nearing earnings, I decided a diagonal put debit strategy was ideal to allow significant upside potential while benefiting from minor retracements as time progresses and speculating on an IVR increase.
📊 Diagonal put debit Position Legs:
Chosen structure and execution details:
Buy LLY Mar 15, 2024, 600.00 PUT at 27.48 (Quantity: 1)
Sell LLY Feb 16, 2024, 610.00 PUT at 26.57 (Quantity: 1)
Trade Details & Key Metrics:
Symbol : LLY
Date/Time : 2024-01-03 15:00
POP : 54%
Required Buying Power ( Req.BP ): $1090
IVR : 44
Price : buying for $0.91 debit
Front month leg : February 16 @610 x 1 PUT
Back month leg : March 15 @600 x -1 PUT
📈 My Risk Tolerance:
For the 2024 trading challenge (goal: FWB:12K to $30k), I’m limiting floating losses to 1.5% per position, thus not tolerating more than a $175 loss. This threshold is approximately around a 590 strike price. While I’m comfortable with a considerable upside range, the upper breakeven at front month expiration is around a 711 strike, increasing to 760 at 21 DTE.
🎯 My Profit Target:
I’m aiming for about 2x the allowed loss, approximately around $300, but will consider taking profits if the price approaches the optimal equity curve point near a 650 strike. Realizing profits is always the more gratifying part of trading!
ANYWAY: HIT THE 🚀 BUTTON ABOVE!
This trade is part of my 2024 option trading challenge , where I aim to turn a 12k account above $30K 💰 (details in signature and my profile page) .
ASML Holding Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the regional top on ASML:
nor entered the dip before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ASML Holding prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 770usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-26,
for a premium of approximately $15.85.
And looking at the chart this would be probably the final leg of the Double Top.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
💡 $357 profit with 72% PoP STRANGLE - #1 trade in my challangeTrade Overview:
Initiated my first options trade for the annual challenge on January 2nd with an IWM strangle. Observing high IVR in the index, I capitalized on the recent VIX spike to enter the 45DTE 212/188 strangle for 3.57cr.
Trade Management:
Rolling Strategy: Will roll legs as needed before expiration if price diverges.
Loss Management: With a FWB:12K account, I'm capping floating loss at $200.
Closing Strategy: Targeting to close around 21DTE.
Trade Details:
Symbol: IWM
Option Type: Strangle 45DTE
Entry Date: January 2, 2024
Entry Price: 3.57cr
Required BP: $1681
Max Profit: $357 (20% of capital)
PoP: 72%
Positions:
IWM Feb 16, 2024 212.00 CALL - Sell | Price: 1.76 | Qty: 1 | R. PnL: 0 | Commission: 1.251 | Fees: 0
IWM Feb 16, 2024 188.00 PUT - Sell | Price: 1.81 | Qty: 1 | R. PnL: 0 | Commission: 1.2511 | Fees: 0
Key Metrics:
Tasty IVR: 42 (High)
Breakevens: 184/215
ABT Abbott Laboratories Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the regional top on ABT:
Nor reentered this fantastic dip:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ABT Abbott Laboratories prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 115usd strike price at the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-2-16,
for a premium of approximately $2.26.
The chart is overextended and the RSI overbought, but I think there is one more leg to go before a correction.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Bank OZK Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold OZK here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of Bank OZK prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 47usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $1.32.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
KBH KB Home Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold KBH before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of KBH KB Home prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 65usd strike price in the money Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-6-21,
for a premium of approximately $7.60.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Beat the Market: How I Strangled $SAVE for Maximum Gains
Technical Summary:
Strategy: Strangle on SAVE stock
Initial Credit: $133 (before commissions and fees)
Maximum Profit: $120
Required Buying Power (req. bp.): $260 for 39 days
Probability of Profit (POP): 85%
IV Rank (IVR): Over 94 post-earnings
Break-even points: Favorably distant due to high IVR
Management opportunities: Anticipated rich rolling options in future
Trade Details (2023-11-06):
Call Sold: 1x SAVE 12/15/23 Call @ $0.80, Strike $15.00
Put Sold: 1x SAVE 12/15/23 Put @ $0.53, Strike $7.50
Commissions and Fees: Minor, deducted from the initial credit
Alright, it's Greg, the TanukiTrader, here to give you the rundown on today's options trading escapades. I took a dive into SAVE stocks which, amidst the earnings aftermath, boasted an IV Rank over 94 due to the hefty market plunge. In the tempest of the airlines' current headwinds, staying cool was the game, and I laid out a strangle to exploit that sweet 85% probability of profit at a 1:2 required buying power ratio—a number I find particularly enticing. The break-evens are sitting pretty, giving us room to breathe, and I'm gunning for a $120 max profit while my obligations are just $260 for the remaining 39 days, thanks to that spicy high IVR. Management options down the line are looking lush, especially when it comes to rolling.
On the ledger, I dispatched a $15 strike SAVE call for $0.80 and a $7.50 strike SAVE put for $0.53, bagging a cool $133 in credit upfront, minor commissions and fees notwithstanding.
To wrap up today's strategy: I positioned a well-balanced strangle on SAVE stock, taking into account the industry's rough patch. My opening balance clocked in at $133 in credit, which promises a rich tapestry of rolling opportunities in the days ahead. On this fine day of November 6, 2023, I have executed the sale of one call and one put option, summing up to $133 in credit, minus the petty cash for costs. Looking forward, I foresee this position offering ample management plays.