$SPY Bull & Bear Options to End FebruaryThe AMEX:SPY is at a crossroads as we close out February. We’ve had hotter-than expected inflation, talks of tariffs, promises of deregulation, China’s stimulus rollout, and Wall Street’s continuing “soft landing” narrative. This is a time to be cautious. Friday’s PCE inflation data could sway the Fed’s March rate decision. Midterm elections and tax cut debates are heating up. Regardless of the noise, the levels show us the way.
We are trading in the range of $591 to $600. For this week, we will be using support over $597 as the entry for calls and a rejection under $600 for puts.
Here are this week’s AMEX:SPY options:
(15-30 minute candles for confirmation and stop-loss)
📜 $595 PUT 3/10 or $591 3/11 (Cheaper, but higher risk)
Entry: Retest & rejection under $600
Target 🎯 : $595, $591.50, (Continuation: $587, $585)
📜 $603 CALL 3/11
Entry: Breakout & retest over $597.70
Target 🎯: $601, $603, $603.44, (Continuation: $606, $608)
Optionstrading
/ES - GEX Structure with TPO and SPX GEX insight
The structure revisited last week's POC during GLOBEX, followed by position adjustments during the US CASH SESSION. As usual, 99% of the time, this zone oscillates up and down without a clear direction.
Respecting the downside levels, the market tested Friday’s low around 6018 to see if it holds, showing no interest in paying anyone.
I’m leaning towards a bearish stance as long as we keep trading below 6060/6080.
Key Levels:
POC Retest (GLOBEX): 6040
Friday’s Low: 6018
Highest Negative NETGEX: 6010
2nd PUT Wall: 5990
3rd PUT Wall: 5965
Single Prints Area: Below 5950
Poor Low Zones: 5920 and below
The market remains stuck in a balance area, reacting to these levels while traders adjust positions. Any sustained trade below 6018-5990 could trigger further downside movement, while reclaiming 6060/6080+ may shift the bias back upward.
SP:SPX = GEX considerations :
1. GAMMA CONDITION
Currently Negative → SPX is in a Put-Dominated Environment, meaning put open interest and volume outweigh calls.
Why it matters:
Negative gamma means market makers hedge by selling into declines and buying into rallies, increasing volatility.
If SPX drops further, dealers must sell more, potentially accelerating downside moves.
2. NET GEX / DEX (Gamma and Delta Exposure)
Gamma Exposure (GEX)
Since Yesterday: Net GEX decreased by -86.51M (-10.67%), moving from -810.5M to -897M.
Since 14:00: Net GEX decreased by -85.33M (-10.51%), now at -897M.
Interpretation:
A decreasing negative GEX suggests put activity is rising or being adjusted, reinforcing volatility.
With negative gamma, dealers hedge in ways that magnify price swings in both directions.
Delta Exposure (DEX)
Since Yesterday: Net DEX dropped by -47.58B (-4.24%), from 1.12T to 1.07T.
Since 14:00: Net DEX decreased by -33.39B (-3.02%), now at 1.07T.
Interpretation:
The decline in DEX suggests dealers are reducing their long delta exposure, which may indicate hedging pressure in response to market movement.
3. VOLUME & PUT/CALL RATIOS
P/C Volume Ratio: Increased to 1.45, indicating more puts being traded than calls.
Call Volume (Since Open): 1.14M contracts, up 6.46% since 14:00.
Put Volume (Since Open): 1.65M contracts, up 8.24% since 14:00.
Interpretation:
A Put/Call Ratio of 1.45 signals a strong bearish bias, as traders are buying more puts for downside protection.
The increase in put volume confirms that downside hedging is intensifying.
Top 5 Strikes by Volume:
6000 Put (128.67K contracts)
6050 Call (77.35K contracts)
6000 Call (71.31K contracts)
6040 Call (68.04K contracts)
5950 Put (67.57K contracts)
Interpretation:
Heavy put volume at 6000 suggests this is a key support level.
Calls at 6050 & 6000 show traders positioning for potential resistance at these levels.
4. PRIMARY LEVELS (Support & Resistance)
Call Resistance: 6200 (far above spot price).
Call Resistance (0DTE): 6055 (40.8 points above current price).
Put Support: 6000 (14.2 points below).
Put Support (0DTE): 6010 (4.2 points below).
Interpretation:
6000 is a key support level—if broken, expect further selling.
Resistance at 6055-6060 means bounces could struggle around this zone.
5. GAMMA FLIP (HVL - High Volatility Level)
HVL (Gamma Flip Level): 6095 (80.8 points above).
HVL (0DTE): 6050 (35.8 points above).
Interpretation:
6095 is the gamma flip zone—above this, gamma could turn positive, leading to more stability.
As long as SPX trades below these levels, we remain in a volatile, bearish regime.
6. TOP GEX STRIKE CHANGES
Largest Positive Changes (Increased GEX - More Call Exposure):
6020: +10.23M (+24.58%)
6050: +4.01M (+11.83%)
6015: +3.99M (+18.02%)
6045: +3.53M (+23.67%)
6035: +3.51M (+20.02%)
Largest Negative Changes (Decreased GEX - More Put Exposure):
6010: -25.9M (-39.22%)
6000: -10.87M (-11.14%)
5990: -7.89M (-23.78%)
5975: -5.33M (-10.53%)
6055: -4.67M (-85.38%)
Interpretation:
Biggest GEX drop at 6010 and 6000 → weakening support, making downside moves more likely.
GEX increase at 6020-6050 → some resistance is building there, potentially capping rallies.
OVERALL TAKEAWAYS
📉 Bearish Bias:
The negative gamma condition and put-heavy environment suggest increased volatility and downside pressure.
Key downside level: 6000—a break could trigger more selling.
Resistance zone: 6050-6060—any bounces may struggle here.
Dealers are positioned to sell into weakness, reinforcing potential downward momentum.
Nifty Market Update: Bears Are in Control – A Rough Ride Ahead?The Nifty closed at 22,795 this week, down by 134 points from the previous week’s close, with a high of 23,049 and a low of 22,720. The formation of a Gravestone Doji candle indicates that the market is firmly under the control of the bears, signaling potential weakness ahead. As forecasted last week, Nifty moved within the range of 23,450 to 22,400, aligning perfectly with my predictions.
Looking ahead to next week, I expect Nifty to trade between the 23,300 to 22,250 range. While 22,300-22,400 offers a strong support zone, if the index slips below 22,250, it could test the WEMA100 at 22,050, which could offer some relief.
Digging deeper, I analyzed the Nifty50 monthly chart from 2004 onwards and noticed a recurring pattern: whenever Nifty closes below the monthly EMA21, it tends to test the EMA50, which currently stands at 19,450. If this month’s close is below 22,400, we could be heading toward 19,450, so brace yourselves for what could be a bumpy ride ahead.
On the international front, the S&P 500 is showing signs of forming a bearish M-pattern, a negative signal for the broader market. This is troubling news for Indian markets, which are already under pressure. From the current level of 6,013, a 1.5% correction could see the index testing support levels around 5,900.
The battle between bears and bulls continues, but for now, I believe the bears still have the upper hand. Stay cautious and keep a close watch on market movements – volatility is here to stay!
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$SEDG BEATS + and No Worries! Confessions from the DeskConfessions from the Desk: 10X, Black Coffee, and No Worries
SolarEdge is up 20%, and my Feb 21, 2025, $20 strike call has officially 10X’d. That’s right—after weeks of my portfolio looking like a crime scene, I’ve finally hit a clean, beautiful, 10X multiplier.
And today? I’m sipping my black coffee like a hedge fund manager who actually knows what they’re doing. Not even the endless tariff talk, geopolitical panic, or Fed fearmongering can shake me today. Let them try—I’ll just take another sip.
Now, let’s be real. Am I suddenly a genius? No. Did I see this coming? Also no. But I’m here, and I’m winning. And in this market, that’s all that matters.
So cheers to today. The market gods have finally smiled upon me.
Breakout or Fakeout? SPX at CrossroadsBreakout or Fakeout? SPX at a Critical Crossroads | SPX Market Analysis 17 Feb 2025
Welcome to another shortened trading week, thanks to Presidents' Day (or maybe an extended Valentine's weekend for the lucky ones).
With all the nudge nudge, wink wink out of the way, let’s talk setups. I’m watching two key trade scenarios—a breakout continuation or a break-in reversal (aka a false breakout).
For now, it’s time to grab a cuppa and a hobnob while waiting for the markets to open.
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SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
☕ Tea, biscuits, and breakout confirmations
With Tuesday’s open ahead, my focus is on two key setups that could determine the next tradable move.
Scenario #1 – The Breakout That Needs to Prove Itself
On Friday, SPX tried to break out, but price action was about as decisive as someone staring at a restaurant menu for 20 minutes before ordering a burger.
Price meandered sideways, leaving traders guessing
I chose to sit this one out, because long weekends can mess with momentum
Now, we watch if Tuesday brings real follow-through
If this breakout is legit, we should see:
✅ A strong push above Friday’s highs
✅ Sustained momentum without rapid reversals
✅ Clean continuation setups for bullish entries
If we get weak price action, I’ll hold off on longs and consider the next setup…
Scenario #2 – The ‘Break-In’ (A False Breakout Setup)
Now, let’s talk about something you won’t find in trading textbooks—the Break-In setup.
Think of it like this: Imagine SPX breaking out, getting everyone excited, then suddenly doing a U-turn and slamming back into the previous range. Traders who chased the breakout get trapped, and those who spot the reversal early have a golden shorting opportunity.
Signs of a Break-In setup:
❌ Price fails to hold breakout levels
❌ Quick rejection and reversal back into the previous range
❌ Bearish momentum builds instead of continuation
If SPX falls back into the range, I’ll be watching for short setups, because these moves can be quick and brutal.
So What’s the Plan?
🧐 1. Watch for Tuesday’s Open – If SPX continues Friday’s breakout, we look for bullish setups. If not, the Break-In trade is on the table.
🎯 2. Avoid Jumping in Too Early – Long weekends can create fake momentum that doesn’t hold. Patience is key.
🍪 3. Keep an Eye on Volatility – If volume is weak, the move could be another dud. But if volatility spikes, we could get a real tradeable move.
🚀 Key Takeaway? SPX has picked a direction, but the real move happens once full liquidity returns. Until then, I’ll be enjoying my tea and biscuits while the market figures itself out.
Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? The biggest post-holiday market crash happened in 1929, when the Dow plunged 12.8% after a weekend—triggering the Great Depression.
💡 The Lesson? Markets don’t take holidays—they just store volatility for later. That’s why smart traders stay prepared for anything after a break.
MP Materials Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought MP before the previuos earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MP Materials prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 25usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-6-20,
for a premium of approximately $2.97.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
DVA DaVita Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of DVA DaVita prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 175usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-2-21,
for a premium of approximately $8.45.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
$SPY Options - Bull & Bear | February Week 2We have been range bound the last three weeks. Sellers are starting to exhaust buyers more quickly than before. We are leaning bearish but confirmation is king. We use 15-30 minute candle closes for confirmation and stop-loss.
Should there be a significant pullback, $580 and $560 are major floors of support.
Here are our bull and bear options for this week:
$600 PUT 2/24
Entry: Confirmation of breakdown under $603.44 (OR harsh rejection at $606)
🎯Target: $600 ($603.44)
$608 CALL 2/24
Entry: Confirmation of breakout over $606
🎯Target: $607, $608
Here's how last week's options went:
📜 AMEX:SPY $605 Call 2/21
$500 → $770 (+54%)
📜 AMEX:SPY $605 Call 2/18
$350 → $645 (+84%)
[02/10] SPX – GEX Until the First Weekly ExpirationThe SPX opened with a huge gap-down in both the futures and CFD markets. After the previous two Fridays, there was a massive gap-down in the premarket each time. Everyone was expecting the same scenario again, but it seems the market quickly recovered from the put support at the 6000 level, and we are now steadily moving toward the positive GEX range.
Although we are still in the transition zone (where it’s easy to switch between positive and negative GEX territory), we may soon reach the HVL level at 6060, which, if I had to guess, might be adjusted during today’s premarket update.
The GEX levels align with the technical foundations:
🟢 6090–6100 to the upside is a bullish take-profit zone, and our purely positive GEX range is fairly narrow. If buying pressure is strong, above 6100 we could see a very strong positive gamma squeeze upward.
🔴 To the downside, “armageddon” could begin if the put support around 6010–6000, which held the sell-off this morning, fails to hold. The next target in a negative gamma squeeze could be 5950, followed by 5900.
The transition range is quite wide, and the market is expecting a volatile week (though I believe that from now on it’ll expect volatility every day for the next four years...).
The transition zone is sure to narrow by Friday. It’s worth paying attention to the premarket update around 6:45 AM, about three hours before the market opens!
If the red zone extends very deep afterward (for example, if it’s red below the HVL level all the way to the put support at around 5950), it indicates a significant downside risk compared to any potential rally—which I don’t think will change unless we get a breakout above 6100.
🔶 So, be cautious with those bullish horns—below 6100, we can’t talk about a confirmed breakout to the upside.
Monster Weekly Breakout?ASTS is forming a bullish pennant on the weekly chart, characterized by a pullback on declining volume after a strong impulse move. The stock recently made a high near $25 and is consolidating in a tightening range, indicating a potential continuation pattern. The declining volume during this pullback suggests sellers are weakening, while buyers are likely waiting for a breakout confirmation.
Trade Plan:
• Entry Trigger: A weekly close above $25 will confirm the breakout from the pennant and signal bullish continuation.
• Price Target: First target at $30, aligning with the measured move projection from the initial leg of the rally.
• Stop Loss: Below $23, to protect against a failed breakout and trend reversal.
[02/03] SPX Weekly GEX OutlookSPX shifted into a strong sideways trend after recent market whipsaws, but premarket today saw a sharp sell-off.
Now, let’s break down the GEX levels set for Friday’s weekly expiration (first weekly expiry). These are already reflected in today’s GEX data—check them on your indicator!
COMMENT: This week, we’ve started updating our seamless GEX & options indicators before the market opens . This has been a long-standing request from users—especially 0DTE traders, who will likely benefit the most.
Key GEX Levels for SPX
📍 Highest Positive Call Wall (Call Resistance): 6075
Acted as resistance last Friday, as it often does initially.
📍 Sideways Zone: 6000-6070 (Transition Zone with GAMMA flip)
Wide Transition Zone → Expect high volatility or slow drifting within this range.
Easy flow between positive and negative GEX profiles, meaning potential sharp moves in either direction.
📍 Put Support (Sum 4DTE): 5900
Very deep support—market is clearly pricing in fear of a potential future drop.
📌Below 6000, there are only negative NetGEX strikes down to 5900, which signals a lack of strong support until that level.
What This Means for the Week
📊 SPX opened (gapped down) in negative GEX territory—if buyers don’t reclaim this zone, we are in for a highly volatile week, potentially with a spiking VIX.
🚫 No reason for bullish optimism unless we break above 6070—until then, expect uncertainty and potential downside pressure.
PS: FINAL GEX ZONE COLORING SHEET
Nifty's Battle Between Bears and Bulls & S&P 500 resistance test#Nifty50 wrapped up the week at 23,560, marking a 80-point increase from the previous week's close. It reached a high of 23,807 and a low of 23,222. As predicted last week, Nifty traded within the range of 24,000-22,950, and looking ahead, I anticipate the index will continue moving within the range of 24,000-23,050 next week.
Currently, the monthly and weekly timeframes are both bearish, while the daily timeframe shows a slight bullish bias. This indicates that the bears remain in control, and they will likely seize every bounce as an opportunity to initiate short positions. I still believe that the 22,400/22,500 level is critical, as it presents an opportunity for the bulls to establish a base and potentially push Nifty higher.
The BJP's victory in the Delhi assembly elections could have a positive impact on the market come Monday, offering a window to offload positions and create fresh shorts. My focus will remain on stocks that are either building a strong base or demonstrating resilience in this otherwise negative market environment. These hidden gems, or 'dark horses,' could emerge as the true winners in the near future.
On the global front, the S&P 500 closed at 6,025, a mere 14 points down from the previous week's close, with a high of 6,101 and a low of 5,923. Over the past three weeks, the S&P 500 bulls have repeatedly attempted to break the strong resistance level at 6,100, but they’ve failed to maintain momentum above it. A decisive close above 6,100 is now critical for the rally to gain steam and target levels at 6,142, 6,225, and 6,376. If this resistance holds, the bears are ready to pounce, and we could see a test of support levels around 5,850—about 3% lower than the current level.
It’s a crucial battle ahead, and while I’m rooting for the bulls, my focus is on the bears. Let’s see who comes out on top!
Nifty50 Trade Setup – February ExpiryAnalyzing the 7th Feb settlement prices using my proprietary OptionSigma model, a key level emerges: 23,698.80.
📌 Bullish Scenario: A clean breakout above 23,698.80 signals strength—potential long opportunities in Nifty February Futures or Monthly Call options.
📌 Bearish Scenario: Failure to breach this level? Shorting is the only play—either via futures or buying put options.
⚡ Stay sharp. Watch the price action around this level for confirmation!
#Nifty50 #OptionsTrading #IndexTrading #OptionSigma #FNO #TradingStrategy
BBAI - Great Breakout, over 600% gain. Now its time for Puts!I would not short this with shares! Positive news about new or existing contracts and it will go towards 10$. Puts are safe with low cost and defined risk. They should give 600-1000% over the next week or two. More if the market tanks or PLTR dropping could take this with it as they move together somewhat. I always hedge and the Puts are paid for with some of the profits from calls and shares so no real money risk.
This is not advice, sharing what I am doing is not a recommendation. Always use risk management.
Good luck if you play.
DIS The Walt Disney Company Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on DIS:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of DIS The Walt Disney Company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 140usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-6-20,
for a premium of approximately $1.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Bull & Bear Top Options February Week 1AMEX:SPY
Weekly Options 2/4/2025
We are still trading in the same range as last week from $591 to $605. This week we will trade this same range using 15 to 30 minute candle closes for confirmation and stop-loss.
$605 Call 2/18 or 2/21
Entry: Breakout over $600, buy off retest
Targets🎯: $603, $605, $608
$595 Put 2/18 or 2/21
Entry: Breakdown under $600, buy off retest rejection
Targets🎯: $595, $593, $591