Carvana Leading Auto Retail – Outpacing LAD & AN-Financial Performance & Momentum:
Carvana reported a record-breaking adjusted EBITDA of $488M in Q1 2025, up $253M YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 11.5% (+3.8pp YoY). The company's strong operational efficiency positions it as a leader in the auto retail industry, nearly doubling the margins of competitors like Lithia Motors (LAD) and AutoNation (AN).
- Competitive Positioning & Growth Outlook:
Carvana’s EBITDA quality is superior due to lower non-cash expenses, enhancing long-term sustainability. The company expects sequential EBITDA growth in Q2 and targets 13.5% EBITDA margins within 5-10 years.
-Peer Comparison:
- Lithia Motors (LAD): EBITDA margin at 4.4% (up from 4% YoY), facing tariff-related headwinds that could impact pricing and demand.
- AutoNation (AN): SG&A as a percentage of gross profit rose to 67.5% in Q1, expected to stay between 66-67% in FY 2025, pressuring margins further.
-Options Flow & Institutional Activity - Key Levels: $350/$370
Recent institutional flow activity indicates strong positioning around $350/$370 strikes, potentially signaling a vertical spread in play rather than outright selling:
1️⃣ Momentum Confirmation:
- CVNA has strong upside momentum following its Q1 results, reinforcing a bullish outlook for near-term price action.
- Institutional traders may be accumulating bullish vertical spreads rather than unwinding positions.
Vertical Spread Setup ($350/$370 Strikes)
- Long Call ($350 Strike) → Signals expectations for further upside.
- Short Call ($370 Strike) → Caps max profit while reducing cost.
- Breakeven Price: $359 → CVNA must close above $359 for profitability.
Profit & Risk Zones
- Above $370: Maximum profit achieved.
- Between $359-$370: Partial profit zone (spread remains in play).
- Below $359: Spread loses value, making recovery dependent on extended upside momentum.
Optionstrading
06/30 Weekly Gamma Exposure Outlook🧠 SPX Weekly Outlook — Gamma Breakout + Short Week Setup
The bulls finally broke through after weeks of painful grinding — and they did so with force.
📈 Thursday & Friday brought a textbook gamma squeeze as SPX sliced through the long-standing 6100 call wall , triggering sharp upside acceleration.
We are now firmly in positive Net GEX territory.
🔺 Entire GEX structure has shifted higher.
🎯 New squeeze zone at 6225 , with major call resistance near 6200 .
🔍 What Just Happened?
📊 The 6060–6120 zone acted as a tough resistance range for weeks — until last week’s breakout.
💥 Put skew collapsed , suggesting downside hedges are being unwound.
📉 VIX and IV keep dropping , confirming a shift toward lower-volatility environment .
🧲 Strong Net GEX across expiries created sustained upward dealer pressure → we’re in long gamma mode .
✅ Bullish Bias — But Stay Tactical
We're in a bullish gamma regime , so dips are likely to be bought.
Key pullback zone to watch: 6125–6060 .
🛠️ Strategy Ideas:
• Wait for a 6060–6125 retest before re-entering longs
• Use shorter-DTE bull put spreads or 0DTE gamma scalps above 6130+
• Scale out or trim risk near 6200–6225
⚠️ Risks to Watch
We’re overextended short-term.
🚨 Losing 6130–6125 could spark a quick flush to 6050 .
Bearish signals to monitor:
• IV spike or renewed put buying
• Loss of 6100 = no-man’s land without confirmation
• Consider short-term debit put spreads if breakdown confirms
🗓️ Short Trading Week Note
🇺🇸 U.S. markets closed Friday, July 5 for Independence Day.
This compresses flows into 4 sessions. Expect:
📌 Early week dealer hedging
📌 Possible positioning unwind on Thursday
💡 Weekly Trade Idea — Structure in Place
💼 Setup:
• Put Butterfly below spot
• 3x Call Diagonal Spreads above spot (5pt wide)
• Slight net negative delta , 11 DTE
🎯 Why it works:
• Leverages IV backwardation
• Profits from time decay
• Favors a stable or modestly bullish week
• Takes advantage of horizontal skew (July 11 vs July 14)
💰 Profit Target: 10–20% return on ~$1,730 risk.
Take profits before time decay kills the center valley — don’t overstay. 🏃💨
📌 Final Thoughts:
The 6100 breakout was technically & gamma-structurally significant ,
but big moves often retest before continuing.
Let price breathe.
Stay aligned with gamma exposure profile. 🔄
Why Palantir (PLTR) Could Be the NVDA of Government AI If you haven`t bought PLTR before the massive rally:
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is proving it’s more than just another AI hype play — it’s becoming a core piece of the secure AI infrastructure for governments and large enterprises worldwide.
Key Bullish Arguments
1) Strong Government Moat
PLTR’s deep relationship with the U.S. government, NATO, and allies provides sticky, long-term revenue streams. In an age of geopolitical tension, this is exactly the type of mission-critical AI spending that stays funded.
2) Expanding Commercial Footprint
The commercial segment is no longer a side project. Palantir’s Foundry and Apollo platforms help enterprises deploy AI at scale — securely, in-house, and without sending sensitive data to open systems. Recent deals in healthcare, energy, and critical infrastructure show they’re broadening their customer base.
3) Profitability & Balance Sheet
Palantir is GAAP profitable for six consecutive quarters, with strong free cash flow and zero debt. For a growth stock in AI, this gives it rare staying power if macro conditions tighten.
4) Technical Strength
The stock broke out above ~$125–$130 support and is now testing key resistance in the $140–$148 range. Weekly momentum remains bullish, and institutional accumulation (A/D line) remains strong.
5) AI Tailwinds Remain
While the general AI trade has cooled for some names, PLTR’s unique moat in secure and domain-specific AI makes it more defensible than generic “AI SaaS” stocks. New contracts or AI platform updates could reignite momentum this summer.
Possible Summer Catalysts
New multi-year government deals — especially in defense and cybersecurity.
Major commercial partnerships — especially in healthcare or energy.
AI platform upgrades — more integrations with LLMs or domain-specific AI.
Inclusion in AI-focused ETFs — or further index rebalancing inflows.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
AAPL: Premium PlayApple beat expectations this quarter—revenue, profit, EPS—all slightly better than analysts hoped. But the stock dropped to $196.26, down from $212.83. Why? Investors are still worried about tariffs, margin pressure, and supply chain changes.
Tim Cook talked about strong product sales (iPhone, Mac, iPad) and all-time high Services revenue. But he also admitted tariffs and regulatory issues are weighing on Apple’s outlook.
My Covered Call Strategy
I’m selling the $202.5 call and buying the $210 call for June 27, 2025. Big money seems to be doing the same—there was a huge premium sale over $2 million, likely betting Apple stays range-bound short term.
- Why this works:
- Resistance near $202.50 gives me a clear ceiling
- Apple fundamentals are strong, but macro risk caps upside
Chart Notes
- Resistance: $202.50 and $210
- Support: Around $192.50
Bottom line:
I like this trade as a way to bring in income while defining my risk. If Apple grinds sideways or pushes a bit higher, the trade still pays. Clean structure, high odds.
Watching for Pullback Below $84 in Citigroup (C)Over the past month, Citigroup shares have appreciated 8.58%, outperforming both the Finance sector's 1.91% gain and the S&P 500's 3.92% increase. This relative outperformance may signal strength, but short-term positioning and market structure suggest a potential shift.
Expecting a Sharp Move Below $84 – Option Flow Insight
Despite the recent strength, I anticipate a significant downward move below the $84 level in the upcoming week. This expectation is based on notable option activity detected in the Times & Sales feed, specifically large put orders suggesting bearish positioning.
In response to this setup, I plan to execute a bearish vertical spread, specifically:
Buying the $84 puts
Selling the $80 puts
This strategy limits downside risk while still profiting from a potential retracement.
Fundamental Picture Ahead of Earnings
Citigroup's next earnings release is scheduled for July 15, 2025. The company is expected to report:
EPS of $1.70 (+11.84% YoY)
Revenue of $20.85B (+3.51% YoY)
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate forecasts:
EPS of $7.38 (+24.03%)
Revenue of $83.84B (+3.33%)
While these figures suggest healthy growth, it's important to note that recent analyst estimate revisions have been modestly negative, with the EPS estimate decreasing 0.27% over the last 30 days. Citigroup currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), reflecting a neutral sentiment from analysts.
Valuation Metrics
From a valuation standpoint:
Forward P/E: 10.75, notably below the industry average of 15.02
PEG ratio: 0.61, versus the industry average of 1.26
This indicates that Citigroup is undervalued relative to its peers, especially when considering growth prospects, which could provide some support. However, short-term bearish flows may dominate price action heading into earnings.
Industry Outlook
The Financial - Investment Bank industry, which includes Citigroup, currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 96, placing it in the top 40% of over 250 industry groups. Historically, industries in the top half outperform those in the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Jade Lizard on PLTR - My 53DTE Summer Theta PlayMany of you — and yes, I see you in my DMs 😄 — are trading PLTR, whether using LEAPS, wheeling, or covered calls.
I took a closer look. And guess what?
📈 After a strong move higher, PLTR was rejected right at the $143 call wall — pretty much all cumulative expiries cluster resistance there
Using the GEX Profile indicator, scanning all expirations:
After a brief dip, the market is repositioning bullish
Squeeze zone extends up to 150
The most distant GEX level is sitting at 160
On the downside, 130 is firm support, with some presence even at 120 — the market isn’t pricing in much risk below that
📉 From a technical standpoint:
We’re near all-time highs
125 (previous ATH) and 100 are key support levels
The OTM delta curve through August is wide, and the call side is paying well — with a current call pricing skew
🔬 IVx is at 57, trending lower + call pricing skew📉 IV Rank isn't particularly high, but the directional IVx matters more here
💡 Summer Theta Play: Jade Lizard on PLTR
Since I’ll be traveling this summer and don’t want to micromanage trades, I looked for something low-touch and high-confidence — and revisited an old favorite: the Jade Lizard.
If you're not familiar with the strategy, I recommend checking out Tastytrade's links and videos on Jade Lizards.
🔹 Why this setup?
Breakeven sits near $100, even with no management
On TastyTrade margin:~$1800 initial margin ~$830 max profit
53 DTE — plenty of time for theta to work
Earnings hit in August — I plan to close before then
Covers all bullish GEX resistance zones
Quickly turns profitable if IV doesn’t spike
Highly adjustable if needed
My conclusion: this strategy covers a much broader range than what the current GEX Profile shows across all expirations — so by my standards, I consider this to be a relatively lower-risk setup compared to most other symbols right now with similar theta strategies.
🔧 How would I adjust if needed?
If price moves up:
I’d roll the short put up to collect additional credit
Hold the call vertical as long as the curve supports it
If price drops:
Transition into a put ratio spread
Either extend or remove the call vertical depending on conditions
🛑 What’s the cut loss plan?
I have about 20% wiggle room on the upside, so I’m not too worried — but if price rips through 160 quickly, I’ll have to consider early closure.
If that happens, the decision depends on time:
If late in the cycle with low DTE:→ Take a small loss & roll out to next month for credit
If early with lots of DTE remaining:→ Consider converting to a butterfly, pushing out the call vertical for a small debit→ Offset this with credit from rolling the put upward
As always — stay sharp, manage your risk, and may the profit be with you.
See you next week!– Greg @ TanukiTrade
DLTR: Range + Flow SetupDLTR – Trading Within Range Amid Strategic Evolution & Flow Anomalies
Dollar Tree (DLTR) continues to show strength post–Q1 FY2025 earnings, breaking higher as it pushes through its multi-price format transition and nears the Family Dollar divestiture. The stock is outperforming key peers (DG, TJX, COST) and trading above both the 50- and 200-day MAs — a signal of growing institutional confidence.
On the fundamentals: Net sales (ex-Family Dollar) jumped 11.3% to $4.64B, comps grew 5.4%, and gross margin expanded to 35.6% despite transitional headwinds. Full-year EPS was guided up to $5.15–$5.65, reflecting management’s conviction in sustained growth. Analysts responded by revising EPS to $6.12 (+13.5% YoY), validating the turnaround thesis.
Valuation-wise, DLTR remains notably underpriced. It’s trading at 16.66x forward earnings — well below the retail average and far cheaper than peers like COST (51.1x), TJX (26.9x), and DG (19.0x). The gap is especially compelling given DLTR’s momentum and shift toward higher-margin discretionary sales via the “3.0” format.
Unusual Activity Insight:
What caught my attention was a cluster of unusual options activity suggesting a short-term strangle strategy centered around the July 18 expiration — likely positioning for the stock to stay range-bound while capturing premium from elevated IV post-earnings. The structure and OI shifts imply smart money is playing both ends of the current price band.
Trading Range and Setup:
DLTR has been respecting a range between $92 and $102, consolidating after its post-earnings move. That behavior, combined with the flow signals, sets the stage perfectly for a defined-risk premium play.
My Approach: Iron Condor (July 18 Expiration)
- Sell 100 Call / Buy 105 Call
- Sell 95 Put / Buy 90 Put
This iron condor aligns with the projected range, offering attractive premium while keeping defined exposure. With theta working in our favor and volatility elevated, it’s a setup that thrives in quiet bullish chop — exactly what we’ve seen since the Q1 breakout
MSTR Bulls Reload on BTC ConvictionMSTR – Institutional Flow + BTC Correlation + Bull Vertical Spread Setup
MicroStrategy (MSTR), operating as “Strategy,” just went full throttle—adding 10,100 BTC between June 9–15 at an average of $104,080 per coin, totaling over $1.05B. With this, they now hold 592,100 BTC (>$63B), solidifying their status as the largest Bitcoin-holding public company. That’s a bold move amid the ongoing Israel-Iran macro uncertainty, signaling confidence, not caution.
This latest BTC buy was funded via STRK and STRF ATM offerings and the $979.7M STRD preferred IPO. Since initiating their Bitcoin treasury strategy in 2020, MSTR has soared over 3,000%, and they’re projecting a 25% BTC yield for 2025 after already clocking in at 13.7% YTD.
🔎 Flow Watch
Institutional activity around current price levels has been sharp—confirming conviction behind the recent momentum. With BTC hovering at critical support, I’m eyeing a potential short-term bullish reversal. Given the tight correlation between BTC and MSTR, the setup looks primed.
🎯 My Strategy
I’m targeting a bull vertical spread—buying the 382.5 call and selling the 385 call. This defined-risk, limited-reward setup positions me to capture near-term upside if BTC begins a rebound and MSTR follows suit. The tight strike range and elevated IV make it ideal for a premium-efficient directional bet.
MKC McCormick & Company Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MKC McCormick & Company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 85usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2026-1-16,
for a premium of approximately $1.40.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
$NVDA 6/27 exp week; $150 calls. Quick ChartHello. Market is moving up off the “news” of “ceasefire” from Trump. Take what is given I suppose. NASDAQ:NVDA could see a beautiful upside towards the psych level of $150 in just one session (Tuesday, 6/24) which is just a “small” move of 3%. Could break out of its rising wedge. This name has been lackluster as of late (kinda sorta). $150 calls will be entered at open (6/24) and my first target will be $148.98. There are multiple rejections at these levels. Good luck!
WSL
[06/16] Weekly GEX Roadmap - Diagonal Spreads or Put Hedges?📊 Weekly GEX Map (SPX)
This week’s GEX profile looks nearly identical to last week:
Positive bias above 6020 up to 6100
But a sticky chop zone remains from 5975 to 6020
Below 5950? That’s where things get interesting…
⚠️ What Happens If 5950 Fails?
In that case - welcome to negative gamma territory:
Delta becomes unstable → fast, erratic moves
Gamma loses influence → hedging effectiveness drops
Dealer hedging lags → market makers chase, not lead
Vega + theta distort readings → charm decay accelerates
Result:
GEX zones lose clarity.
Pinning breaks down.
Reactions become nonlinear and emotional.
If we drop below 5950, we might see acceleration instead of stabilization — despite the positive GEX profile.
💡 Trade Idea of the Week – With Caution
If not for Wednesday's macro risk (Fed rate decision), I'd suggest a bullish diagonal spread toward 6100–6150:
Limited downside
Defined risk
Covers the full squeeze zone
But with FOMC looming, I'd only hold this trade until Thursday and close once the debit doubles or earlier.
🧨 Macro + Geo Risks
Fed is priced for “no move” → any surprise = volatility spike
Rising tensions with Iran → oil and futures could react violently
Recommendation : Avoid OIL this week, especially futures and naked strategies
🛡️ Prefer Downside Protection?
If you expect weakness on SPX weekly:
Consider a put debit spread with the short leg at 5950, where the second strongest Put Support sits.
This type of structure can offer up to 6:1 reward-to-risk, making it one of the most efficient bearish hedges for this week.
If you enjoyed the above breakdown, feel free to check out my previous weekly analyses or explore my tools as well.
Until next time – Trade what you see, not what you hope,
– Greg @ TanukiTrade
DG Trading Setup: Capitalizing on RangeDollar General has experienced a stabilization phase following its Q1 2025 results, with same-store sales increasing 2.4% and revenue growing 5.3% to $10.4 billion. The company has regained traction in the discount retail space, mitigating previous challenges related to shrink and operational inefficiencies.
Institutional Flow & Market Positioning
Recent institutional flow highlights large orders in DG’s 115 call and 110 put, signaling either:
- A range-bound setup, where smart money expects the stock to stay between $110-$115 in the near term.
- Potential volatility, with institutions hedging both directions ahead of an unexpected move.
Considering the ATR (18) and standard deviation (7.353), this aligns with a low-breakout probability, making range-based strategies the optimal play. The absence of earnings between now and July further supports sideways movement expectations.
Options Trade Setup: Iron Condor
To capitalize on premium decay and IV contraction, I’m structuring an iron condor:
- Sell 115 Call / Buy 120 Call
- Sell 110 Put / Buy 105 Put
This strategy ensures limited risk while collecting premium in a high-probability range trade.
$META - Consolidation Cluster Bullish Flagging Ahead of The FedPrice held above key levels after breakout and is now flagging near highs.
700+ zone holding as new support
Strong structure with rising 9EMA catch
Volume cooling, but MACD remains bullish
Eyeing potential expansion above $708–710 range
This setup favors continuation. Watching for a clean break and close above $708 to confirm next leg higher.
MU Options Insight: Bulls Eyeing $123Fundamental Overview
Micron Technology's $200 billion expansion plan aligns with the broader push for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. The company is investing $150 billion in fabrication plants across Idaho, New York, and Virginia, while $50 billion is allocated for high-bandwidth memory packaging and R&D. This move strengthens Micron’s position in AI-driven demand and supply chain resilience.
The CHIPS and Science Act funding of $6.4 billion and eligibility for the Advanced Manufacturing Investment Credit further bolster Micron’s financial outlook. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra emphasized that this expansion will create tens of thousands of jobs and reinforce U.S. tech leadership.
Technical Analysis
Micron’s stock is currently near a 12-month high, up 37% year to date. The momentum remains strong, with institutional activity suggesting bullish sentiment.
- Options Flow Insight: A vertical bull spread was spotted in Times & Sales, with 118 strike contracts executed on the ask and 123 strike contracts executed on the bid simultaneously. This suggests a bullish stance, as traders anticipate further upside.
- Expiration Consideration: The June 20 expiration (4 days away) indicates a short-term bullish outlook, likely targeting a breakout above $123.
- Institutional Positioning: The 500 additional contracts at 118 reinforce the bullish bias. If MU moves beyond $123, traders holding the spread still profit, confirming strong conviction in upside potential.
Why Recursion Pharmaceuticals RXRX Could Be the NVDA of BiotechRecursion Pharmaceuticals RXRX is rapidly emerging as a transformative force in drug discovery, leveraging cutting-edge artificial intelligence and automation to industrialize and accelerate the development of new medicines. Here’s why RXRX could be the next NVIDIA (NVDA) of biotechnology and why its stock could soar by year-end:
1. AI-Powered Drug Discovery Platform with Unmatched Scale
Recursion integrates AI, machine learning, automation, and advanced data science to decode biology and chemistry, dramatically reducing the time and cost of drug discovery.
The company’s proprietary BioHive-2 supercomputer, built with NVIDIA’s DGX H100 systems, is the most powerful AI computing system wholly owned by any biopharma company, enabling Recursion to process biological data at unprecedented speeds.
By reducing the number of compounds needed for clinical candidates from thousands to just 136–200 and shrinking development timelines to under a year, RXRX is fundamentally changing the economics of pharmaceutical R&D.
2. Strategic Partnerships and Industry Validation
RXRX has forged high-profile partnerships with pharmaceutical giants such as Bayer, Roche/Genentech, Takeda, and Sanofi, validating its platform and unlocking milestone payments that could exceed $20 billion over time.
The company’s collaboration with AI biotech Exscientia in a $700 million deal further cements its leadership in the AI-driven drug discovery space, creating a pipeline of 10 clinical and preclinical programs with hundreds of millions in potential milestones.
NVIDIA itself holds over 7.7 million shares of RXRX, making it one of NVIDIA’s largest biotech investments and a strong endorsement of Recursion’s technology and long-term vision.
3. Explosive Revenue Growth and Strong Cash Position
Analysts forecast Recursion’s revenue to grow at a 65% CAGR from $58.8 million in 2024 to $263 million by 2027, far outpacing the broader biotech sector.
The company ended 2024 with over $600 million in cash, providing a solid runway for continued investment in R&D, platform expansion, and clinical trials.
Wall Street analysts expect more than 50% upside in RXRX stock over the next 12–24 months, with multiple clinical milestones and partnership announcements as near-term catalysts.
4. Disruptive Vision: The “Virtual Cell” and Beyond
RXRX is building toward a “virtual cell,” where AI models can simulate biological processes with such accuracy that wet lab experiments shift from data generation to validating computational predictions.
This approach could dramatically improve drug development success rates, addressing the industry’s notorious 95% failure rate and positioning Recursion as the go-to platform for next-generation drug discovery.
5. Market Sentiment and Institutional Support
RXRX has caught the attention of growth investors and major funds, including Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, further boosting its profile and liquidity.
Recent stock surges and high trading volumes reflect growing investor confidence in Recursion’s disruptive potential and the broader AI-in-biotech trend.
$MSTR bear flag forming; Daily $350 targetHello, quick mobile chart posting here. Simple looking bear flagging forming. Bitcoin having some downside action, I imagine Saylor will be buying some Bitcoin soon again as well. This should see $350. Looking for a short. + geopolitical turmoil hits crypto/Bitcoin the hardest and most violent. The 20 and 50 EMA are aligned as well with the Supertrend Downtrend showing $350.
WSL.
Expiration Dates for Options using Fibonacci Time ZoneThis is a way I use the Fibonacci Time Zone; it naturally leans into a balance of Gamma and Theta Decay. Choosing the right strike zone is up to your strategy. I prefer Covered Calls, Debit Spreads and Iron Condors for this strategy. Puts are fair game too. If you choose to roll something over, most recoveries occur after a month and a half after a 10% SPY drop off.
[06/09] [GEX] Weekly SPX OutlookLast week’s outlook played out quite well — as anticipated, SPX hit the 6000 level, closing exactly there on Friday. This was the realistic target we highlighted in last week's idea.
🔭 SPX: The Bigger Outlook
It's difficult to say whether the rising SPX trend will continue. We're still in the "90-day agreement period" set by the administration, and so far, the market has shown resilience, avoiding deeper pullbacks like the one we saw in April.
With VIX hovering around 17–18, we’ve reached a zone where further SPX upside would require volatility. For the index to continue rising meaningfully, it needs to reverse the current bearish macro environment, and that can only happen with strong buying momentum — not a slow grind.
The parallel downward channel drawn a few weeks ago is still technically valid. Even a short 100-point squeeze would fit within this structure before a larger move down unfolds.
GEX levels give us useful clues heading into Friday. We're currently in a net positive GEX zone across all expirations, giving bulls a structural advantage, just like last week.
As of Monday’s premarket, SPX spot is at 6009.The Gamma Flip zone is between 5975–5990, with a High Volume Level (HVL) at 5985.
🔍 Let’s zoom in with our GEX levels — this gives us a deeper view than our GEX Profile indicator for TradingView alone.
🐂 🟢 If SPX moves higher, the following are logical profit-taking zones:
6050 (Delta ≈ 33)
6075 (Delta ≈ 25)
6100 (Delta ≈ 17)
🎯 Targeting above 6100 currently feels irrational — for instance, the next major gamma squeeze zone is at 6150, but that corresponds to a delta 6 level (≈94% chance the price closes below it), so I won’t aim that high yet.
🐻🔴 In a bearish scenario:
5975 and 5950 are the first nearby support zones (Deltas 30 and 38).
If momentum picks up, 5900 becomes reachable quickly, even if it's technically a 17-delta distance — because that’s deep in the negative GEX zone.
📅 Don’t forget: On Wednesday premarket, we’ll get Core Inflation Rate data — a key macro risk that could shake things up, regardless of TSLA drama fading.
📌 SPX Weekly Trading Plan Conclusion
Whatever your bias, keep cheap downside hedges in place. We've been rising for a long time, and even if SPX breaks out of the descending channel temporarily, resistance and the gamma landscape may pull price back swiftly.