$AAPL - Losing Steam?Tech has been on a tear, but expecting them to top out soon. $AAPL is certainly overextended but even though dated shorts are OK, there's still a possibility to hit high $160s unless we see bearish signs.
Optionstrading
$NVDA 🚀 or 🛑?NVDA triggered an inverse H&S leading to a strong bull trend. We either start topping out or reach a high of $289 before a correction. Volume is low for today. Dated shorts okay but bearish structure/sign preferred for ideal entry. Note this also impacts the $QQQ as a top holding.
$SPY - a crucial couple of weeks ahead 📉SPY faced a major rejection at around $401.50, suggesting it will struggle to break through again. If bulls do push past, I see significant resistance at $404-$407.50. However, it's unlikely we'll reach there soon. I expect the rally to lose momentum and break through to $380s.
I recognize potential upside but expect more downside to come.
Side Note- I'll be watching $AAPL $NVDA $META for potential sell-offs.
$DXY - Going for the jugularMy previous idea was for $SPY to seek a channel support break to $387 before potential retracement back into channel. Today $DXY failed to break $102 level, and may retest immediate support below before kicking off a new upwards move, causing another leg down on SPY.
I am long despite possible near-term retracement.
$SPY - Lower Price Discovery$SPY seeks channel support break to $387 before potential retracement back into channel. I'm looking for lower price discovery here overall.
See other subsequent ideas that would impact $SPY.
BA 190/170 May put vertical spreadTrade thesis
- technical breakout (bearish)
- downward break out of 3 months consolidation zone
- weekly stochastic showing more room to downside
- entry trigger: retest of demand zone and failure to hold above (wicked into the zone and closed below on daily)
Position
- strategy: put vertical
- structure:
long 05/19 190p
short 05/19 170p
- cost: $450
- delta: -19.68
- theta: -2.311
- gamma: 0.54
- vega: 10.15
Targets
- 1st target: $190.50 zone (previous gap fill)
- 2nd target: $173-169 zone
HVN from post covid to present
confluence of .5 retracement level from previous low to recent high
- SL target
technical: weekly close back into consolidation zone
discretionary: price action at key price levels
discretionary: price action when stochastic enters oversold level (below 20)
$DXY - Shoot your shot!If the US dollar index shows strength, $SPY may break the lower TL. Right now, DXY seems to be just going sideways in this formation but I am long overall.
$NVDA - Retracement Incoming$NVDA looks bullish & broke the upward trend. Noting a similar pattern to Jan. Retest of gray trend line possible in near-term but shorts should buy time for Jun+ for lower risk.
I'm focused on shorting $SPY, but will enter NVDA lightly for Jun/Sep $250/260P for risk to reward.
Range BreakoutBank nifty was continuously working above a trend line but with no big movement hence taking support from a trend line. Breakout of the trendline below triggered entry into PE and gave movement of 300 points in 15-20 mins. This is known as price action study when market breaks out of a channel, trend line or range.
Thank you.
$AAPL - New High of the YearStrong selling pressure took $AAPL back into the zone. The initial bullish confirmation for a higher price target is negated and I'm watching how it plays out as it'll impact $SPY.
I have a LT bearish view on $AAPL, but can see it bounce off demand.
$SPY - The Follow Through$SPY was a rollercoaster ride today:
1. Creeped up to the top of the flag
2. Pivoted and dropped with equities selling off
3. Broke through the earlier gap
Staying cautious amidst all this volatility, but looking for this trend to continue tomorrow with $VIX curling up from its bounce.
$SPY - FOMC around the cornerIn my previous idea, I was long on $SPY's expected move up. Tomorrow, we may break the top of the bear flag based on today's PA. Big picture tell us we may see a run into ~$400+ for a nice short setup.
$VIX - This is the cool off we needed for another sell-off to happen.
Let's see what happens #FOMC
$DXY - What goes down, must come up!If we break through this most recent TL on $DXY, we'll have another point of retest for a bounce especially with a potential inverse H&S at play here.
I fully expect $DXY to re-enter the supply zone which aligns with my view that another leg down is approaching for $SPY.
$VIX - Something is brewingIn my previous post, I outlined where $SPY rejected off the bear flag resistance. You'll see that those two times correlate with the two times $VIX tested pennant support. With the third VIX retest, we may see $SPY near my gray TL of ~$400 (see related idea linked). I'm still expecting another leg down, and will take a short position if I see optimal R:R (I'll update).
No doubt, today was a boring day for $SPY. As I outlined in my update above, staying patient and understanding the right time to execute is what'll get you the W. Good luck!
$SPY - Watch for another leg downI plan to WIN on this upcoming trade with optimal risk-to-reward: I pointed out yesterday that we'll see slow upward movement on $SPY. I'm still expecting another leg down, and will take a short position if I see optimal R:R (I'll update).
In my subsequent post, you'll see that the two times $VIX tested pennant support, $SPY rejected off the bear flag resistance (in this graph). With the third VIX retest, we may see $SPY near the gray TL of ~$400.
I'm waiting for this likely scenario to take my short and am holding my long stance.
$MSFT hard reject off Daily uptrend $MSFT hard reject off Daily uptrend, creating a 2-2-2d reversal.
Looks like it wants the 9EMA at the $265.66 PL.
$AAPL - Hard Rejections$AAPL faced 4 rejections at ~$156.48 which is acting as strong resistance.
Note as the largest holding in $SPY, AAPL has a significant impact on the overall market direction.
I anticipate further downside after this latest rejection and see $160+ as low probability.
$SPY When bullish meets bearishWhen #Bearish meets #Bullish
Looking for a run up or upwards chop based on $CS bailout and liquidity injection.
VIX needs to close above golden TL for further downside, but may need to cool off.
I'm watching $SPY and $VIX for ideal setups to initiate a short.
No guarantees on the outlook, but I'm cautious and expecting temporarily long movement.
$UAL Riding the Turbulence$UAL stock dropped due to Q1 cost and downtime headwinds, but airlines expect strong demand and Q2 profitability.
I'm opening 1/3 call position, adding 2 more times if weakness continues:
Strike: $45.
Exp: 6/16/23 or later
Cost: $3.60 per contract
The cost per contract could be lower based on market movements tomorrow. I plan to swing my first 1/3 $UAL call position through #FOMC and will update on this position going forward to the point of sale.
$MSFT Trade Idea - Bullish engulfing on the W, Green on D, W, M$MSFT Trade Idea
Bullish engulfing on the week, Green on the D,W,M
Calls over $283.35
Target $286.20, $289
Puts under $276.30
Target $263.28
$META Trade Idea - Currently Red on 60m, 4H, D, Green on W, M$META with the 2-2-2d reversal on the daily with room down to the 9EMA
Bullish engulfing on the weekly
Calls over $202.10
Target $210
Puts under $195.30
Target $190.85
Please see video for details.
NKE NIKE Options Ahead Of EarningsIf you haven`t sold NKE here:
or reentered here:
Then you should know that looking at the NKE NIKE options chain ahead of earnings, I would buy the $115 strike price Puts with
2023-3-24 expiration date for about
$2.40 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
