TSLA - CALLS to retest $122's - $123'sAfter confirming the $122 Support Rejection going into the end of the week/year for TSLA, we expected to at least re-test the $106-$108 Support Levels and found confirmation on the 1-Hr Timeframe.
With additional bull analysts starting to kick in, we believe it will take a little longer before the stock actually goes lower. Of course, we're monitoring and will wait for confirmation above the $122s again before closing or determining if we're creating a channel sideways between the $106s-$122s for a while until moving higher/lower.
(Didn't press send on this earlier around 12 CST)
Optionstrading
Hedged Options Strategy on APAOil is one of the few sectors that analysts are still bullish on in 2023. Long arguments include catalysts such as China's re-opening, airlines recovering, and lowered supply leading to higher oil prices. APA Corporation, formerly known as Apache, operates in the US, Egypt and the UK and is one of the largest American explorers for oil and gas properties. It owns entire lines of production from gathering to transport with four pipelines running from the Permian to the Gulf Coast, as well as 2.3 billion barrels of oil reserves. Positive earnings reports exceeded expectations, and with a recent drop in stock price, this could be a good time to enter. Dividend stocks are popular in bearish times, and APA pays a consistent one, though not the highest at ~2.3%.
Elliot Wave traders will also note where APA is going in the pattern, though yesterday's doom-and-gloom market might make investors think twice about jumping in. For downside protection, this hedged options strategy could make up to 9% (17% annualized) in ~7 months while cushioning against a fall of up to 31% (to below $29.85) as of 7/21/23.
Buy 1 $42.50 call
Sell 1 $45 call
Sell 1 $30 put
7/21/23
Capital Required: $2985
TRADE PLAN 01/04/2023TP1> If we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 3841,
we can go for 3858 > 3880 > 3913 > 3924 > 3943 > 3965 > 3979 > 3995.
>To the upside, the level I'm looking it right now is the 3860, that's the POC of those last 11 days, we need to trade/bid above so we can try to break the LIS 3913/3915, where BULLS are losing the battle.
TP2> If we manage to Trade below MAIN POC 3841,
we can visit 3824 > 3800 > 3787 > 3766 > 3728.
>To the downside, the level I'm looking is 3824, as we are already trading below 3960 11 days POC, so once we confirm below 3824, we have to break lower to find strong sellers to push below 3800, where BEARS are losing the battle.
* We are trading in this 100 points RANGE from 3800 to 3900 levels for the last 11 days or about 2 weeks,
I would say that the market structure are balanced, looking for stronger BUYERS or SELLERS around the VALUE AREAS.
For now no direction in the markets, just range trades, we should break anytime soon out of this BOX and I would like to see the TP1 working tomorrow as I'm positive delta after this nasty $AAPL Drop.
$TSLA was also ugly today, -12.24%
#tradesafe #sizekills
TSLA - Confirmation of Recovery Still PendingAs the chart suggest and following trend, we have been playing TSLA to the downside while heavily monitoring whether or not we will actually even go to the $64 (which would average it out with to more similar pricing for stocks in a Car Company, even more so EVs).
Our last PUTs rode in over the Christmas Weekend in which we closed and switch our positioning to a Call Option Strategy around the $109-$111 Range to ride a relief bounce from the downward pressure and rode those into this morning right before TSLA started spiking around $122.
After further analysis the trend, we got out of CALLs and started picking up PUTs to ride this at least back to $109 going into the New Year. Reason being, although TSLA had a great 13% (8%-9% intraday) but it needed to at least find and hold support above $122.27 for us. And although there is still time in the trading session, we believe TSLA will retrace back down to at least $116-$117 and we believe that will way on confidence of a very STRONG push any higher.
By all means, not necessarily bearish or even bullish, and could also be wrong here by all means as we are looking for the bottom just as much as everyone else. Just paying the short-term moving as we retest $108's and that could possibly be the moment this either pushes down even harder or we may have potentially found support.
F 13.5C 1/27Ford has touched the bottom support area 3 times and has shown to be a pretty strong area. The top trendline has had 2 touches so far, so the bottom is a more reliable play for the time being. Should it respect the top trend line . We should be looking to sell at $13. I've loaded up and plan to take half at $12, and the rest at $13.
IWM $164P 1/20/23We had a double top $189 and a hard rejection I noticed that greed was really heavy around that area. Then we broke and retested the $176 area. Seeing how we've got a ton of 200 MA's above us, I would enter here and if we come back to $176, average into the position. I've had numerous bearish signals over the last month and I'm pretty confident about this position. I set my TP at $164 because, last time we were at those levels we had a lot of fear in the market. Also on June 15th 2022 and October 12th 2020 we saw violent reactions to this level. I'd rather claim my gains than to fight support.
Follow me to keep up with my calls I'll try to make sure post at least once per week.
Leave a comment if you have a specific ticker you'd like me to analyze. AMEX:IWM
UXIN Limited Options Ahead Of EarningsLooking at the UXIN Limited options chain ahead of earnings , i would buy the $2 strike price Puts with
2023-8-18 expiration date for about
$0.57 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$SPY is at another substantial level on the WEEKLY.$SPY is at another substantial level on the WEEKLY. Which is the .618 fib level (COVID lows). There's no SOLID volume wall below this point until close to the $340 PL. If we break this level, we'll likely lose it-to retest lows that have not been tested.
FDX Price Analysis (Short to Long Trade Idea) FDX Analysis:
On Feb 16th Sep. 2022, FDX sold off massively to create a huge gap ranging from $164.36 to $201.93. Before beginning a move back to the upside to fill this gap, FDX first dropped to a major demand zone at $132.83 - $141.26 which was also in confluence with the monthly chart 200 MA/EMA. It then ranged between $147 - $160 from the beginning of October to the beginning of November before finally breaking the 164.36 mark to begin the larger gap fill between $164.36 - $201.93. After the breakout, FDX began to consolidate in a rising wedge while partially filling the gap midway before rejecting the weekly 20EMA at 182.40. As of now, FDX has broken below this rising wedge and is retracting to retest lower timeframe supply area to either create a head and shoulders pattern or maybe even a close double bottom (lower higher). Dec 9th, 2022 daily candle attempted to test this area and rejected it while also rejecting the 9EMA on the daily.
Trade Idea:
We are watching for a small move up to retest the supply area, hopefully getting a touch of the support line (short green line) at the rising wedge to show that it has turned resistance (Note: This area of interest is marked by the red circle). This would be ideal because we would get a better entry closer to the stop loss with more confirmation and a better risk/reward. Just in case, watch for a continued move down below $170.08.
We are looking to enter a short term put swing to target to the support area between $161.80 - $164.36 and the intermediate uptrend line (larger green line) for a take profit (NOTE: This take profit area is marked by a yellow circle. After this play, we are watching to see if we can get confirmation for a bounce at this area for a continuation not only to the upside to fill the rest of the gap between $182.40 - $201.93 but to also get a 5th touch of the major downtrend area (large downward slanted red lines). So basically that will possibly be another trade opportunity in the near future.
SN: FDX has earnings on Tuesday, Dec 20th 2022 which would we be key in the watch the reaction at that support zone (green area below rising wedge) and intermediate uptrend (upward slanted green lines). ALSO NOTE, there is a strong resistance/supply area above between $189.30 - $195.33 which is a crash course with the 200MA/EMA on the daily timeframe. This could be where we see price meet supply, the 200MA/EMA, and the major downtrend area (large downward slanted red lines).