COIN buy setup for near term equity or long call options tradeStrong buy rates indicating we have another solid bounce approaching into end of Jan 2025/ next FOMC meeting, to take price to 302$ target level. Great setup for a long call options trade for 30-45 DTE duration.
Expecting additional volatility after peaking above 300 so will look for discounts once again before seeking entry on calls for Sept.
Weekly and monthly tf cycles analysis indicating COIN share price is preparing to run strongly higher to 750$ and 1000$ targets by early 2026. VERY Very bullish from my standpoint, given its fundamentals and disruption of traditional banking/finance sectors.
Optionstrading
Kickstart 2025: SPX GEX Outlook & Options InsightsNew Year, Renewed Energy — Critical Levels and Strategies for the Week
Critical Levels
Se detailed image below:
Above 5940 (HVL): Expect some “chop zone” between 5940 and 6000, but with a generally bullish bias based on our Auto-GEX Profiles until friday.
Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could ignite by Friday, pulling the index toward the next major resistance.
Below 5900: Significant bearish momentum may take hold, targeting around 5800 (PUT support), though this scenario seems less likely right now.
Gamma Conditions
Short DTE options (0–2 days) exhibit positive gamma, which tends to buoy prices and make steep sell-offs more difficult.
There’s notable IV skew in the very near-term expirations (01/08–01/09). Consider focusing on the Friday (01/10) and Monday (01/13) expirations for timespread strategies.
Summary
Upside: Holding above 5940 supports a move toward the 6000 target.
Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could propel the SPX higher.
Below 5900: Watch out for a stronger bearish move toward 5800.
IV and skew may be erratic this week, but the positive gamma backdrop favors upside momentum.
There are several announcements due this week. If price whipsaws around these times, remember it’s often directly tied to those scheduled news releases—try not to panic.
Wishing everyone a responsible and successful year of options trading in 2025!
#Nifty50 What Lies Ahead for Nifty & S&p500,13-17th Jan 2025The Nifty Index experienced a sharp decline this week, closing at 23,431, a significant 570 points below the previous week's close. While the index reached a high of 24,089, it ultimately succumbed to selling pressure, finding support at 23,344. As forecasted, the Nifty traded within the predicted range of 24,500 to 23,300. For the upcoming week, I anticipate the index to remain confined within a range of 23,950 to 22,900 .
Given the prevailing bearish sentiment, a potential short-term bounce could unfold next week to lure in unsuspecting buyers before a renewed downward move. Historically, whenever the Nifty has breached the support of the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (WEMA50), it has typically undergone a 5-6% correction. Based on the current level of 23,431, the Nifty may find crucial support near the 22,200-22,400 zone.
Turning to the US markets, the S&P 500 found support at the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (DEMA100) level of 5,817 and closed at 5,827. The upcoming week will be pivotal. If the S&P 500 successfully defends the 5,807 low, a potential rally towards the 5,926-5,944 range could materialize. However, a weekly close below the 5,800 mark would signal a significant bearish turn for global markets, potentially triggering a deeper correction towards the 5,637 or even 5,504 levels.
Wishing readers a very happy Lohri and Makar Sakranti.
LLY Earnings Preview: Breakout or Rejection? Key Levels to WatchNYSE:LLY moved from 761-799 this week, catching key support at that 761 level. NYSE:LLY closed as an outside week, bullish on the 15MIN-Week timeframe. This has the potential to be a really nice earnings run-up, if the 800 level can hold. As always do your own research, these are just ideas, not meant for investment advice.
ICICIBANK Option Buy Trade (January 2025)I plan to buy the ICICIBANK 1290 Put Option (January Contract)
CMP: 25.90 | Best buy below 15.00
STOPLOSS: 7.50
TARGET: 1260 January future level.
Validity: Till 27th January 2025 Trading session.
Disclaimer: This is not a trade recommendation, for educational purposes only.
STZ Constellation Brands Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold STZ before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of STZ Constellation Brands prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 230usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $2.07.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
SELLING NAKED OPTIONS : today selling 5825 SPX put for 1 weekHere is an option strategy with the help of 4 indicators
Commodity Channel Index
Distance to Upper and Lower Bollinger Band
DMI
Parabolic
First I look at the emergence of a trend change through the Parabolic
Then I look at the 3 other measure of strengths
Most of the time selling naked works .
I am expecting my DMI indicator to move into green. Then by next week should it move back to red, I will act accordingly
Crude Oil January Futures: Bullish Option Trade SetupBuilding upon my prior analysis, where I held a bearish outlook on Crude Oil January Futures , I now present a contrasting bullish perspective. While I had previously emphasized the confidentiality of the stop-loss level for short trades, this setup focuses on a call option strategy aligned with my expectations of upward momentum in the market.
For this trade, I have chosen the 6000 strike call option . The optimal entry point for this position is below ₹234.20 , providing a favorable risk-reward ratio. As of this writing, the current market quote (best offer) stands at ₹186.00 , offering an attractive entry opportunity for bullish traders.
My target for this position is set at ₹468.40 , which I anticipate achieving by the contract's expiry on 15th January 2025.
Key Notes:
This trade is based on my personal analysis and market perspective.
It is important to emphasize that this is not a trade recommendation for the public.
The stop-loss level remains confidential and forms an integral part of my risk management approach.
Disclaimer:
Trading in options and futures involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. This analysis is solely my personal view and is shared for informational purposes. Perform your own due diligence or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
2024 is a wrap - time for 2025 outlook - let's go2024 will be a memorable year
-23% gains
-Mag 7 + Semiconductors + Bitcoin all contributing nicely
-PLTR was the top performing stock in the S&P 500 (impressive 340.48%)
As always, 2024 wasn't in a straight line up, though it felt like it at times
VIX had #1 and #2 largest single day moves ever (Aug 5 and Dec 18)
April was a sticky inflation pullback month
August was a Bank of Japan deleveraging weekend scare
FED dominated the catalysts with guidance, narrative, and wait and see between employment and inflation data
2025 will bring new president, new policy, new Republican power. Many were excited about this but there are still checks and balances and markets need more reassurance than hyperbole. I plan to look at income plays and trading plays were buy and hold. Whatever I do own equities and ETFs wise, I want protection just in case the market isn't as straightforward and bullish like it has been since Oct 2022.
Happy New Year - thanks for watching!!! See you in 2025!!!
Bull & Bear New Year SPY OptionsAMEX:SPY
We see the indices having a tough January. Long-term trend is still intact. The 10-year yield is a benchmark for bulls/bears. It needs to be down to 4% (currently 4.5%). If it hits 5%, the pullback will intensify. There is a high floor of support on pullbacks, notably the 50SMA ($580) and 200SMA ($550). We are not thinking bear market. We are overextended.
$595 CALL 1/13
Entry: Breakdown under white trendline
Targets 🎯: $595, $598.67
$585 PUT 1/13
Entry: Breakdown under white trendline
Targets 🎯: $585, $583.56, $580
Best of luck to you all and a happy new year from all of us at Pennybois!
🥂🎆🥳
Bullish on Natural Gas - January 280 Call OptionSummary: I'm bullish on the Natural Gas January 280 call option. Here's my trade idea:
Current Price: Closed at ₹24.76 on December 27, 2024.
Entry:
Best Buying Price: Aim to enter below ₹18.80 for optimal risk-reward.
Target:
Price Target: Looking towards ₹37-₹40.
Rationale:
The current market conditions suggest potential for an upward movement in natural gas prices, supported by seasonal demand increases and possible geopolitical tensions affecting supply.
Technical analysis indicates a potential breakout if the price sustains above key support levels.
Risk Management:
Set a stop-loss just below ₹16 to minimize potential losses if the market moves against the position.
Position size should be managed to ensure the trade aligns with your risk tolerance.
Time Frame:
This trade is for the January expiry, giving us a tight window to capitalize on the expected price increase.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice but a personal trading idea. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before trading.
Let's see if we can catch that wave up to ₹37-₹40!
$NVDA inverted h&s 4H daily. Short term play. I grabbed 200 cons of 150c for 1/3/2025 avg. @.17. I may be crazy but I’m fun. Should see a burp to $140. $135 very very strong. Low volume today and the whole market reacted the same way so not really too worried. Looking to see where we are New Year’s Eve with a shortened week once again but the tendency seems to be super boost before a holiday. Day before Thanksgiving and day before Christmas the market went big green but we have a full day NYE not half. Also within that tendency there seems to be some type of dip prior. Interesting to watch. Strong close 12/27. We’ll see, we’ll see. I’m manifesting $140 Monday and $144 Tuesday and I’d sell 150 contracts. I’ll be in touch.
WSL
RUM Rumble Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought RUM before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RUM Rumble prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 6usd strike price in the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $1.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
U Unity Among My Top 10 Picks for 2025 | Price TargetIf you haven`t bought U Unity at all time low:
My price target for U in 2025 is $35, driven by the following fundamental factors:
Strong Market Position in Gaming and Interactive Content:
Unity maintains a dominant position in the gaming industry, with approximately 70% of the top mobile games built on its platform. The global gaming market is projected to grow significantly, driven by increasing consumer spending on mobile and interactive content. Unity's extensive reach—3.7 billion monthly downloads of applications made with Unity—positions it well to capture this growth. As the demand for high-quality gaming experiences continues to rise, Unity's technology will be integral in meeting these needs.
Innovative Product Developments:
The upcoming launch of Unity 6 promises to enhance the platform's stability and performance, which is crucial for attracting new developers and retaining existing customers. Additionally, Unity's shift back to a subscription-based model has shown positive results, with subscription revenue growing by 12%. This focus on innovation and customer satisfaction is expected to drive user engagement and revenue growth in the coming years.
Focus on Operational Efficiency and Cost Management:
Unity's recent restructuring efforts have significantly reduced net losses, from $291 million in Q1 2024 to $126 million in Q2 2024. This focus on operational efficiency not only improves profitability but also enhances cash flow management—Unity generated $115 million in free cash flow in Q3 2024. As the company continues to streamline operations while investing in growth initiatives, it is likely to see further improvements in financial performance.
Valuation Potential Amidst Market Recovery:
Despite recent challenges, Unity's current valuation presents an attractive opportunity for investors. Analysts are optimistic about the company's long-term growth prospects, particularly as it adapts to market demands and enhances its product offerings. With a target price suggesting significant upside potential from current levels, Unity is positioned for substantial appreciation as it executes its strategic vision.
INTC Intel Corporation Among My Top 10 Picks for 2025 | Price TaIf you haven`t bought the Double Bottom on INTC:
My price target for INTC in 2025 is $30, driven by the following fundamental factors:
Strategic Product Launches and Technological Advancements:
Intel is set to launch its new Lunar Lake and Arrow Lake processors, designed specifically for artificial intelligence (AI) and personal computing. These chips, expected to be manufactured using Intel's advanced 18A process technology, promise significant performance improvements and energy efficiency. The successful rollout of these products could revitalize Intel's position in the competitive CPU market, especially as demand for AI capabilities continues to grow across various sectors. Analysts anticipate that these innovations will contribute to a recovery in Intel's data center and AI segments, which are critical for future revenue growth.
Financial Recovery and Growth Projections:
After experiencing a challenging period marked by declining revenues and operational setbacks, Intel is projected to report a strong recovery by 2025. Analysts expect the company to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of approximately $0.98, a significant rebound from anticipated losses in 2024. Revenue is also expected to grow by about 6%, reaching approximately $55.84 billion, indicating a positive shift in Intel's financial health. This recovery is supported by robust cash flow generation and a healthy balance sheet, which provides the necessary capital for ongoing investments in R&D and production capabilities.
Market Position and Competitive Advantages:
Despite recent challenges, Intel maintains a dominant market share in the global CPU market, estimated at 60-70%. This strong position provides a competitive advantage as the company looks to regain momentum against rivals like AMD and NVIDIA. Intel's shift towards an outsourced foundry model will not only enhance production efficiency but also open new revenue streams by manufacturing chips for other companies. This strategic pivot is indicative of Intel's adaptability in a rapidly evolving semiconductor landscape.
Investor Sentiment and Valuation Potential;
Currently trading at a significant discount relative to its historical valuation metrics, Intel presents an attractive investment opportunity. The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio remains low compared to industry peers, suggesting potential upside as market sentiment improves with the anticipated product launches and financial recovery. Investors are increasingly optimistic about Intel's long-term prospects, particularly as the company navigates its operational challenges and focuses on innovation.