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Rolling (IRA): SPY August 20th 381 to September 30th 378... for a 2.04 credit. Comments: Mechanically rolling at 50% max. Here, I'm rolling out to the quarterly expiry strike that pays at least 1% of the strike price in credit (the September monthly is getting kind of crowded), which happens to be a lower strike. Credits collected so far: 16.31 (See Post Below) + 2.04 = 18.35 relative to a current price for the September 30th 378 of 3.77, so I've realized gains of 18.35 - 3.77 = 14.58 ($1458).
AMEX:SPY
by NaughtyPines
Opening* (Small Account): SPY July 30th 397.5/402.5 SPV**... for a .52 credit. Comments: A continuation of my "small account" thread, utilizing short put verticals to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. (See Post Below). Sold the 20, bought the 17 to receive a credit >10% of the width of the spread, immediately doing a "good until cancelled" order to take profit at 50% max. Trade Metrics: Max Profit: .52 ($52) Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 4.58 ($458) ROC at Max: 11.4% ROC at 50% Max: 5.7% ROC at Max/50 Max as a function of Net Liquidity: 2.45%/1.22% ROC at Max/50 Max as a function of Net Liquidity Annualized: 19.0%/9.5% Current Net Liquidity: 2126.22 Current Available Buying Power: 1216.21 Percentage of Buying Power Deployed: 42.8% * -- Late Post. Opened on 6/11. ** -- Short Put Vertical.
AMEX:SPY
by NaughtyPines
Opening* (Small Account): SPY July 23rd 393/398 SPV**... for a .54 credit. Comments: While I'm waiting on various setups I've got hanging out there, I figured I'd start up a thread of sorts for a small account that is on the other end of the account-size spectrum from my IRA/retirement account posts: a small account I opened for a future grandkid or grandkids. There isn't much in it at the moment (around $2000), so naked short putting most instruments will be out of reach. Consequently, I'll have to use other tools in the tool kit. Here, to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market, I'm using a short put vertical in SPY and shooting to receive at least 10% of the width of the spread in credit, much as I've done with SPX 50-wides in my retirement account. These are just a smaller version of those. Right out of the box, however, I ate up about 22% of the overall buying power in the account (($446/$2000) = 22.3%), so the other thing I won't be able to do here is put on a ton of trades in it; it'll basically accommodate around four 5-wides max at the moment, assuming I wanted to be super-aggressive with it and deploy all of the available buying power. One thing you'll notice by looking at the metrics of the spread, however, is that I could consider just doing one of these at a time and potentially still beat long-term average broad market returns. Even at 50% max, the ROC is 1.27% as a function of net liquidity -- 10.3% annualized. Consequently, for those just starting out with 40 years to go until retirement, this is one thing to consider; how "big" you want to go in terms of total buying power deployed, particularly here where we're bumping up against all-time-highs in an implied volatility environment that is on the low end of its 52-week range (i.e., not the greatest time or "spot" in which to start selling bullish assumption premium in the broad market). Here, though, since any future grandkid is basically playing with "house money," I'll look to be a tad more aggressive than that on percentage of buying power deployed. The metrics of this particular spread: Max Profit: .54 ($54) Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 4.46 ($446) ROC at Max: 12.1% ROC at 50% Max: 6.1% ROC at Max/50 Max as a function of Net Liquidity: 2.54%/1.27% ROC at Max/50 Max as a function of Net Liquidity Annualized: 20.6%/10.3% As with a lot of my trades, I'll look to take profit at 50% max and redeploy in the expiry nearest 45 days until expiry. On the take loss side, I'll look to take my lumps at 2 x credit received. * -- This is a late post. The spread was opened on June 4th, and is currently worth .3750. ** -- Short Put Vertical.
AMEX:SPY
by NaughtyPines
Rolling (IRA): SPY July 16th 367 to August 20th 378... for a 2.56 credit. Comments: With the July 16th 367 at greater than 50% max, rolling it to the next monthly strike paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit. So far, I've collected 8.75 + 2.56 in credits or 11.31 ($1131) of which 7.39 ($739) is realized gain. It would be better to roll this on a red day or when implied volatility is better, but the goal here is to stay mechanical, rather than trying to collect "ideal" premium each and every roll.
AMEX:SPY
by NaughtyPines
Sell In May and Go Away?You might have heard the saying “Sell in May and go away.” It is an old investing adage that has been around for decades, but does it actually work? In this blog post, we are going to find out what’s best to do. We will discuss: 1. What is the meaning behind “Sell in May and go away?” 2. Does sell in May and go away work? 3. Should you sell in May and go away? 4. Two reasons not to sell in May and what to do instead. Let’s get started: 1. What Is The Meaning Behind “Sell In May And Go Away?” The saying “Sell in May and go away” has been around for a long time. It was first recorded in 1937 by John Hill via The Financial Times of London. The original saying was “Sell in May and come on back on St. Leger’s Day.” This phrase refers to a custom of aristocrats, merchants, and bankers who would leave the city of London and escape to the country during the hot summer months. St. Leger’s Day refers to the St. Leger’s Stakes, a thoroughbred horse race held in mid-September and the last leg of the British Triple Crown. And it seems that American traders have adopted the saying. Americans are more likely to spend more time on vacation between Memorial Day and Labor Day. 2. Does “Sell in May And Go Away” Work? And indeed, for over 50 years, the stock market performance supported the theory behind the strategy. From 1950 to around 2013, the DOW has had an average return of only 0.3% during the six-month period from May to October period. In comparison, the Dow had an average gain of 7.5% during the November to April period. So it seems that “Sell in May and Go away” is a strategy that may have worked for many years. But In recent times, it seems like the strategy has fallen out of favor. Technical analysts at Merrill Lynch looked at historical data and found THIS out: Looking at 3-month seasonal data going back to 1928, the June-August period typically is the second-best of the year, with gains 63% of the time, and an average return of 2.97%! 3. Should You Sell In May And Go Away? With all this conflicting data, does it make sense to sell in May and go away? Is this a good investment strategy? You know me — I always say “Trade What You See And Not What You Think!” Always look at the market data! As an example, last year, between May 4th and August 31st, 2020, the Nasdaq rose 28% (refer to chart). If you would have sold in May and "gone away," you would have missed out on these gains. 4. Two Reasons Not To Sell In May And What To Do Instead Maybe it makes sense to sell in May and go away when you’re an investor. MAYBE... But as a short-term trader like me, May is a GREAT month to trade, and here’s why: I like to trade The Wheel Strategy . With this trading strategy, you are selling option premiums. And there are 2 factors that influence options premiums: - Volatility When volatility is high, option premiums are higher. The Volatility Index VIX for the past few month, has been pretty low in March and April. But now, in May 2021, it's spiking up again. This means that options premiums are higher, which is perfect for a seller like me: I can get more premium! - Down Days Step 1 of The Wheel Strategy is selling puts, and you get more premium for puts on “Down Days” for such strategies. According to the NASDAQ , thus far, in May 2021, we had 7 “down days” and only 4 “up days." On “down days," there are many more trading opportunities. Last week, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average had its worst week since February, I made $3,722 in profits. Here Are Some Of My Trades In May: Let’s take a look at these trades in more detail: - Trade #1: Snapchat SNAP Snapchat recently had some rough weeks. In less than 2 months, it traded from a high of 72.50 to around $50 where it found some support. Most retail investors would stay away from a stock like this but I saw an opportunity to “buy it at a discount” : I sold Puts with a strike price of 47 and an expiration of 4 days. If SNAP closed below $47 on May 14 (the expiration date), I would have gotten assigned and bought SNAP for $47. I would consider that a bargain. If SNAP closed above $47, I would have just kept the premium that I received for selling calls. In this case, that’s $525. SNAP did close above $47 on May 14, and I collected $525 for 4 days of exposure in the stock market. - Trade #2: Square SQ Square looked very similar: Mid-February, the stock made a high of $280, but then it retreated to $200. Most market participants would not trade a stock like this, but looking back over a six-month period, I saw some good support around the $200 — $203 level. I sold 5 Puts with a strike price of 202.50 and an expiration date of May 14th. I received $100 in premium for each put, so I collected $500 in premium. On May 14, SQ closed above $202.50, and I made $500 in only 4 days. That’s a very nice return. - Other Trades I Took I sold 119 Puts on Apple , sold 212.50 Puts on Boeing , And I sold 39.50 Puts on Dave & Busters . All of these stocks have lost in value over the past few months. Investors who follow a ‘buy-and-hold approach” would lose money in this scenario, but as an active investor, I can apply trading strategies that make money even if the stock is going sideways or even moving lower. Summary “Sell in May and go away” is an old Wall Street adage that might be useful for buy-and-hold investors. But active investors like me are always on the lookout for trading opportunities. And with the right trading strategy, the increased volatility combined with markets that are moving lower is a dream come true. You need to have the right trading strategy. I personally like to use the PowerX Strategy for markets that are trending, and I trade The Wheel Strategy in choppy market conditions as we experience right now. With such a strategy, I am able to make money even if the stock is going sideways or lower. I for one will NOT sell in May and go away!
TVC:NDQEducation
by rockwelltrading
2
When To Sit On Your Hands When TradingNow, as you know, I like to use the PowerX Optimizer to find the best trades according to the PowerX strategy, along with The Wheel Strategy. So here’s my morning routine. Usually, I’m in front of the computer at 8 a.m. Central Time. That is 30 minutes before the US markets open. I run the scanner on PowerX Optimizer, and it finds possible trades based on my criteria. My Criteria For Finding Stocks My criteria, for starters, is I like to look for long and short signals because I like to play the markets both ways. I want to see at least a 60% return on my investment. I also want to see stocks that have a closing price between $5 and $250, because I don’t like to trade stocks that are below $5. I want to see a profit factor that is higher than 3. This means that for every dollar that I would have lost trading the strategy, I would have made $3. I also want a risk-reward ratio of at least 2%. Usually, there are anywhere between 4 & 8 stocks that come up on my scanner every day. I use three criteria to find A-plus trades. So here’s what I’m looking for. Number one, I’m looking for gappiness. I look back to see if the stock had a lot of gaps over the past year. I look back over the past 13 months. Number two, I’m looking for is trendability. What does trendability mean? It means that I want to see nice trends to the upside and the downside. And the last thing, number three, is I’m looking at the P&L chart. What does the P&L chart mean? Now, this is one of the strengths of the PowerX Optimizer software, and this is why I use it every single day. The P&L chart basically shows you what would have happened if I had traded this stock according to the rules of the PowerX strategy over the past year. So I can take a look at the trading report where I see for the past few trades, what I would have made in profits & losses. When To Sit On Your Hands Anyhow, this morning (at the time of this writing) I just saw EVRI on my scanner and it passed MOST of my criteria. First of all, it did pass all my scanner criteria, otherwise, it wouldn’t have come up here. Also, it did pass 2 out of my 3 criteria in terms of gappiness and trendability. But when it came to the P&L chart, it didn’t meet my criteria. So this is where this morning I did the most difficult thing for a trader. I was sitting on my hands. You see, at the beginning of my trading career, I had this little voice in my head and this little voice in my head said, “If you don’t trade, you don’t make any money.” Well after I forced some trades, I realized, well, if you don’t trade, you also don’t lose any money. This is why it’s so important. In the beginning when I got a new tool, or when I had a new trading strategy, I wanted to trade it. All I wanted to do was trade. However, when there’s nothing to trade, DON’T TRADE. This is why I use the PowerX Optimizer. It a fantastic job of keeping you out of trouble. So now, as you know, I am trading two strategies. In addition to trading the PowerX strategy, I’m also trading the Wheel. So also for the Wheel, I started looking for trades. Let me show you what I was looking for this morning. One of the trades that I thought, ahh you know what, this might actually be a decent trade was Marriott, (MAR), but when I looked, however, there wasn’t enough premium in there to sell according to the Wheel. I looked at another stock that came up on my radar this morning, which was (PENN). There was some great premium in there but PENN sounded rather risky. You see, for me, it is very, very important that I have a great track record. Now at the beginning of my trading career, I would have forced these trades. I would have said, “Oh my gosh, I cannot be done working after one hour,” because this is what happens sometimes in the morning. I sit down in front of the computer at 8 o’clock, which is half an hour before the open, and I run through the PowerX Optimizer, and don’t find anything. Now, one of the things that of course, I do every single day, is that I check my open positions, and in the PowerX Optimizer, I have my watch list. So first I look for new trades, and secondly, manage my existing trades. I don’t, however, need to overmanage my account when there are days where there is nothing to trade. What I used to do way back when I was still new to trading, and nothing would come up, I would adjust my criteria. I said, yeah, you know what? Instead of getting a 60% return on my investment, why don’t I lower it to 50%, or why don’t I lower the winning percentage to 35%. Maybe lower the volume to 200,000. I had to learn the hard way early in my career not to do this. Summary So anyhow, in summary, there will be days when you’re all excited, but you see, in order to make money with trading, two conditions have to be met. Number one, you have to be ready, and number two, the markets have to be ready. You may be ready but if the markets are not ready, you got to sit on your hands. The beautiful thing as traders, it’s not that today is the trading opportunity of a century. No, tomorrow there will be more trades, on Wednesday will be more trades, on Thursday. Every single day I’m running the scanner according to PowerX Optimizer and I will find more opportunities to trade. So today, one of the hardest lessons, and this is why I wanted to share it with you, sit on your hands. Anyhow, if you enjoyed this video, do me a favor and click on like so that more people will see it.
TVC:SPXEducation
by rockwelltrading
SOYBEAN upward move play with Teucrium Soybean $SOYB trust fund (1) Futures Technical Analysis Bullish triangle with RSI breakout. Enought space for bullish move. s3.tradingview.com (2) SOYB trust fund I've skipped the futures instrument, because I'm not like options on futures. My choice for Soybean play is $SOYB with relative high IVR value. Optimal for Short Put Vertical strategy, similar TA here, with RSI pullback. s3.tradingview.com (3) Clear uptrend Higher Lows Higher Highs. s3.tradingview.com CONCLUSION: Max profit: $685 Probability of Profit: 55% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 47% Max loss with my risk management: ~$200 Req. Buy Power: $1320 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 66 (ultra high) Expiry: 35 days Buy 10 SOYB May21' 20 Put Sell 10 SOYB May21' 22 Put Credit Put spread for 0.685cr each, because IVR is relative high. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 200$. Probability of loss in this way: ~25% . No stress above $21.1 level. Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.27db. Probability of profit this way: ~75%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
AMEX:SOYBLong
by TanukiTrade