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THE WEEK AHEAD: FDX, MU, NKE EARNINGS; CHWY, /NG, VIXEARNINGS: FDX (57/37): Tuesday, After Market Close. MU (23/46): Wednesday, After Market Close. NKE (24/25): Thursday, After Market Close. Pictured here is an MU January 17th 46/57.5 short strangle paying 1.53 (.76 at 50% max) with 1 standard deviation break evens and a delta/theta metrics of .32/5.34. Alternatively: a defined risk play collecting one-third the width of the wings: the January 17th 42/47/55/60, paying 1.69. Neither FDX nor NKE are paying as well premium-wise relative to the cost of their shares, but the FDX 150/180 18 delta put/21 delta call short strangle in the January cycle is paying 3.88; the NKE 90/105 14 delta put/18 delta call short strangle, 1.15. Alternative defined risk plays: the FDX January 17th 145/150/180/185 iron condor, 1.50 credit (not quite one-third the width of the wings, but you have to deal with some lack of granularity in the strikes with five-wides); the NKE January 17th 85/95/100/110 "forced goofy" iron condor, 3.30 credit (one-third the width, but a "forced goofy,"* again due to lack of strike granularity). CHWY (--/50) gets an honorable mention due to lockup expiration on Wednesday. With it finishing on Friday above the $22 initial public offering price and approximately 87% of float subject to lockup, it could make for an interesting premium selling play and/or directional shot, particularly since 30-day remains high after earnings. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: TLT (31/12) EEM (28/16) FXI (19/18) SMH (15/25) USO (14/29) Expiries in Which At-the-Money Short Straddle Pays Greater than 10% of the Value of the Underlying: TLT: January '21 EEM: June FXI: June SMH: May USO: February BROAD MARKET: SPY (7/12) IWM (0/15) QQQ (0/15) Expiries in which the at-the-money short straddle pays greater than 10% of the underlying are all out in September. Ugh. No bueno. FUTURES: /NG (58/57) /ZS (36/16) /ZC (25/21) /6C (23/5) /6B (22/11) With /NG 30-day at 57 and trading at a seasonal low, this may be a second opportunity to take a dip at a bullish assumption shot, assuming peak seasonality in January or February. VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX closed Friday at 12.63, with the /VX futures contracts trading at 15.22 in January, 16.70 in February, 17.07 in March, and 17.60 in April. Consequently, term structure trades remain viable for the February, March, and April, generally using spreads with a break even at or near where the futures contract is currently trading (e.g., VIX February 19th 16/18 short call vertical, .65, break even of 16.65 versus February /VX at 16.70). * -- A "forced goofy." Strike selection is "forced" to get one-third of the width in credit, "goofy" because forcing the short option strikes leads to bigger risk than you might ordinarily want to devote to the play. There is nothing particularly wrong with a "forced goofy," as long as you understand that it's a risk 6.70/reward 3.30 play versus your usual play which might be risk 3.33/reward 1.67 play, for example.
NASDAQ:MU
by NaughtyPines
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: HD, LOW, TGT, GPS, M EARNINGS; /NG, VIX, VXXEARNINGS: HD (24/21) (Tuesday Before Market) LOW (68/35) (Wednesday Before Market) TGT (66/37) (Wednesday Before Market) GPS (60/53) (Thursday After Market) M (97/67) (Thursday Before Market) Pictured here is an M short straddle at the 17 strike in the December cycle, paying 2.73 with 14/72/19.73 break evens, and delta/theta metrics of -4.49/3.77. Look to put on a play on Wednesday before the end of the New York session. In second place for ideal volatility contraction metrics is GPS (60/53). As with M, I would short straddle here, with the December 20th 18 paying 2.22 with 15/78/20.22 break evens, and delta/theta metrics of 1.29/3.06. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: TLT (42/12) EEM (40/17) SLV (29/20) EWZ (26/27) FXI (26/19) ... with the first expiry in which the at-the-money short straddle pays more than 10% of the value of the underlying: TLT, January '21; EEM, June; SLV, July; EWZ, March; and FXI, May. Both the rank/implied metrics, as well as the short straddle value metric indicate that it's probably a good time to hand sit on selling shorter duration premium here. BROAD MARKET: With VIX finishing the week at 12.05, volatility is at or near 52 week lows here in all the majors: SPY's in the 6th percentile; IWM in the 4th; and QQQ at 0. The first expiry in which the at-the money short straddle pays greater than 10% of the value of the underlying: SPY, Sept; IWM, June; and QQQ, June. Both the rank/implied metrics, as well as the short straddle value metric indicate that it's probably a good time to hand sit on selling shorter duration premium here. FUTURES: /6B (63/11) /NG (40/59) /ZS (30/20) /SI (29/19) /CL (24/33) As I may have mentioned last week, it's no surprise that /NG volatility is frisking up here. Generally, I play natty for seasonality, so look to get in with something bullish assumption at seasonal lows/peak injection, bail out of the long delta position in January or February depending on how Mother Nature feels, and then look to ride the elevator down in the opposite direction with a short delta position. I'm not keen on selling nondirectional premium (e.g., iron condors), particularly given what natty did last winter, so am sticking with my traditional, no-nonsense seasonality play. Another item of note: GVX (gold volatility) has dropped substantially here, finishing the week at 11.22, in the 23rd percentile for the year ... . VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: As previously mentioned, VIX closed the week at near 2019 lows (12.05), with the December, January, and February /VX contracts trading at 15.09, 16.60, and 17.50, respectively. Consequently, VIX term structure trades are still viable in the January and February expiries, but would probably beg off a December setup in the absence of a pop that runs that contract up to >16; the 16 strike is generally the lowest I will go with the short option leg of a VIX term structure trade. As far as derivatives are concerned, this definitely isn't the place to be adding shorts. While it may be that VIX hangs out at these levels for a lengthy period of time, shorts are most productive on VIX pops -- not at VIX lows, even if contango and beta slippage are really working in shorts' favor here. As we all know, both the current steep contango and low VIX levels can evaporate in a heartbeat. If anything, this may be one of the rare occasions to consider a small bullish assumption trade (e.g., a VXX December 20th 15/17/17/19 "Super Bull,"* paying a .20 credit, with max profit/loss metrics of 2.20/1.80 and a break even of 16.80 versus the 17.40 where VXX is currently trading). * -- A 15/17 short put vertical combined with a 17/19 long call vertical.
NYSE:M
by NaughtyPines
3
THE WEEK AHEAD: CRON, TLRY, CGC EARNINGS; EWZ; VIXHIGH RANK/IMPLIED EARNINGS: CRON (32/82) (Tuesday Before Open) TLRY (50/97) (Tuesday After Close) CSCO (44/27) (Tuesday After Close) WMT (48/23) (Thursday Before Open) NVDA (24/43) (Thursday After Close) AMAT (17/34) (Thursday After Close) CGC (95/87) (Thursday Before Open) JC (30/43) (Friday Before Open) Notes: Looks like it's the "Week of Weed" with CRON, TLRY, CGC announcing and all in states of high implied/high rank ... . If you're hesitant to go into single name here, MJ (47/51) has decent rank/implied metrics, although it's less liquid than I would like. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: TLT (56/12) EWZ (47/28) SLV (44/22) GDXJ (37/31) GLD (34/11) EEM (33/16) First Expiries In Which At-the-Money Short Straddle Pays >10% of Stock Price: TLT: January of '21 EWZ: March: 5.64 verus 43.02 (13.11%) SLV: April: 1.72 versus 15.70 (11.0%) GDXJ: January: 3.99 versus 36.33 (11.0%) GLD: January of '21 EEM: June: 4.97 versus 43.68 (11.4%) Notes: Pictured here is an EWZ delta-neutral short strangle camped out at the 20 delta in the first expiry in which the at-the-money short straddle pays greater than 10% of the value of the underlying. Paying 1.61, it has break evens of 35.39/50.61 with delta/theta metrics of -.36/1.49; .40 at 25% maximum; .80 at 50%. BROAD MARKET: Broad market premium selling simply isn't paying here in short duration (an understatement). FUTURES: /6B (72/9) /NG (74/60) /SI (44/21) /GC (34/12) /ZS (32/20) Notes: Natty is frisking up, which should be no surprise. Having put on a bullish assumption seasonality play in UNG way back in August at lows, I'm just waiting for things to top out in January or February before doing something in the other direction. VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: Term structure trades* in VIX remain viable for the December, January, and February expiries with the correspondent futures contracts trading at 16.05, 17.33, and 18.07 respectively. On the other end of the stick, continue to consider a VXX Super Bull or similar setup to potentially catch a modest volatility expansion running into the end of the year without sticking your entire pickle in the grinder, particularly if VIX continues to trundle along at 2019 lows: the December 20th 16P/-18P/18C/-20C pays a small credit (.17), has a 17.83 break even versus spot of 18.64, and max profit/max loss metrics of 2.17/1.87, with max being realized on a finish above 20, which does not exactly require a massive pop from here. * -- Generally short call verticals with break even near where the correspondent /VX futures contract is trading (e.g., the December 20th 15/18, paying .90, with a 15.90 break even versus the December /VX contract trading at 16.05; the January 22nd 16/19, 1.00, with a 17.00 break even versus 17.33; February 19th 17/20, with an 18.00 break even versus 18.07).
AMEX:EWZ
by NaughtyPines