BIDU IRON CONDOR with high Probality of ProfitHi everybody!
After a very big break - MrAnonymCrypto back on board!
The past year I'm spent for learning and developing my new trading system and indicator pack and full trading strategy system for option trading of the us stock market. I'm tired to waiting for any bitcoin daytrades and unregulated price moves: those instruments eated my life and time.
Ever since I’ve only been dealing with the stock market for up to an hour a day: my life has changed - in a positive direction.<3
Today I'm releasing the first live tradig publication of my indicator: the Iron Condor Hunter . // If you are new in the option's world I'm recommending to learn options first via tastytrade youtube videos //
More about my Iron Condor Hunter script in advance:
This script is for neutral credit strategy trades. This script indicates the secure Iron Condor setups automatically on any liquid+volatile instrument, based and calculated with auto Murrey Math level script and current price actions, and IVR. (MurreyMath is my other script, telling more later) If the script indicates new potential setup: you can see a blue background with the levels of the Iron Condor wings, automatically! You can check the success rate of the script for the past with same setup I've designed this indicator for 45-60 days expirations, (because you can exit automatically at 50% profit in 30 days, if the instrument stays inside your original range!)
And now, let's look an today live example: BIDU
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
REASONS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
(1) Backtesting the indicator
17 Iron Condor detected in the past 10 years, with 100% succes rate, with exact range detection at the beginning.
Today I'm catched another signal, so I'm grabbing the opportunity!
(2) The trading range & IVR
Today Iron Condor Hunter script detected the 372-221 range for safe-play this setup.
Because the most volatile expriation is the April 16th in the 45-60day range: I'm playing this for credit.
The (tastytrade) IVR is high (above 80) - this is very high Implied Volatility Rank - safe for credit play, the instument is liquid.
Good Defined Strikes:
Sell 1 BIDU Apr16' 220 put Buy 1 BIDU Apr16' 210 put
Sell 1 BIDU Apr16' 370 call Buy1 BIDU Apr16' 380 put
(3) Divergence on my oscillator
As you can see: the very obvious divergence is detected at the overbought levels.
This and the formation meaning for me: some correction started.
No kind of event ( divident ) coming in the next 60 days, so I'm not expecting more significant price movement.
(4) Define safe zones
At Iron condor setups I'm always define some "safe-zone" : for upside and downside too.
Safe zones meaning for me: I can sleep peacefully until the price is moving between these edges.
BUT! If the safe zone beaks: my eyes on the final strikes.
Another seat beld is the 0.618 fib-retrace level, because if the price is falling straight down: at this level we are expecting some resistance. But in current case: the fib 0.618 level is inside our range.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SUMMARY - MY TRADE SETUP
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Max profit: $288 Max loss: $712 IVR: 87 Probability of Profit: 68% Expiry: 50 days Strategy: 67.7% wide delta neutral Iron Condor for credit Risk management : I'm closing the trade immediately - if the daily bar closing outside my strikes - and I'm cutting my loss. (no matter what I'm believing)- usually I'm losing mutch less than my max profit in this case.
Profit management: I'm sending an order at the 50% of max profit, immediately after my position successfully opened
Welcome any comments:
* whether about the options, my indicators in the future.
* in private, I will be happy to help you with any questions about the option for free.
* are you interesting in options, or only "when bitcoin moon"?
Optiontrader
[ X ] United States Steel Corp short call vertical spreadLazy day, lazy trade.
My Iron Condor Hunter script indicated a potential iron condor for this instrument for the 12 - 23 range.
Let's check for the best setup for this signal.
(1) Basic TA to background check
After a quick TA I judged it too risky, because it limiting the downside potential correction.
The script indicated good ranges in the past 4 years, but now I'm a little bit hesitating about the downside move limit.
The script shows me 12$ as secury bottom target in the next 30 days, but the lowest low may be ~10$, based the green trendline
(2) Murrey Math levels
-1/8 and +1/8 are used for some kind of attempt to catch a trend reversal. -1/8 is an extreme support level during a bearish trend , while +1/8 is an extreme resistance during a bullish tendency.
A test of these lines indicates that the current trend is weakening. As a rule, the price doesn’t revers here and starts corrections towards 0/8 and 8/8. After that, the previous trend resumes.
On the weekly perfectly fit to my Murrey Math Lines Auto +1/8 script.
(3) Daily divergence
Divergence on daily chart , without any more comment..... Indicated local correction.
Breaked down my custom oscillator => correction validated.
CONCLUSION :
Modifying the strategy from the originally planned Iron Condor to Vertical Spread.
Sell 1 X Apr16' 21 call
Buy 1 X Apr16' 23 call
Max profit: ...... $80
Max loss: ......... $120
IVR: ................... 18.3
Probability of Profit: 73%
Expiry: .............. 45days
Strategy: Short call vertical
Risk management: I'm closing the trade immediately - if the daily bar closing outside my strikes - and I'm cutting my loss. (no matter what I'm believing)- usually I'm losing mutch less than my max profit in this case. Danger zone starts at 20.28$
Profit management: I'm sending an order at the 50% of max profit, immediately after my position opened - as usually.