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Iron Condor SPY 13 May 2022SPY 13 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 33%/year So that converted into daily is 2.08% Since we are in need of the open price for the highest accuracy, I am going to take the current price which is 398(you can also wait for the opening price and take +- 8.1 points from the open candle value) So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed with a probability chance of 85% within TOP 406 BOT 390 From fundamental point, today we have no big volatility news that can impact our asset. At the same time the current values are expected to be sidemarket/bullish. At the same the weekly expected channel top and bot values for SPY were TOP 423 BOT 386
AMEX:SPY
by exlux
2
Key points Iron Condor ES/SPX 09 May 2022Current expected movement from IV = 2.08% At the same tim we estimate with a 80.2% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 1.97% for this the market will stay within TOP 4167 BOT 4006 All of this being calculated with the opening value candle of today From the fundamental point of view we have not big volatility news today With all of this in mind, we can try a scalp entry for today with the next setup Iron Condor for 0 DTE ES Call Sell 4160 Call Buy 4185 Put Sell 4010 Put Buy 3985 This would give us an expectency of 0.41$ per each 1$ lost At the same time we have a 80.2% probability so 80.2% * 0.41$ - 20%*1$ = 12.88$ ROI after 100 trades
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May XLEXLE Energy Sector 9 - 13 May The weekly VXXLE> Volatility Index for XLE Energy Sector Implied = 38.6 In this we have to standard it for weekly session 38.6 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 5.35% My historical product is telling me with 1.2x coficient that the expected movement for this week E Volatility = 38.93 / sqrt(52) = 5.4% With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 82.7% chance that the market stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol So for next week this range for us is going to be TOP - 87.4 BOT - 78.5
AMEX:XLE
by exlux
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May Amazon AMAZON 9 - 13 May The weekly VXAZN-> Volatility Index for AMAZON Implied = 50.24 In this we have to standard it for weekly session 39.02 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 6.97% My historical product is telling me with 1x coficient that the expected movement for this week E Volatility = 51.59 / sqrt(52) = 7.15% With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 83% chance that the market stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol So for next week this range for us is going to be TOP - 2460 BOT - 2131
NASDAQ:AMZN
by exlux
3
Short Iron Condor QQQ 06 May 2022We can estimate with a 81% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be above 0.64% For this the market will stay above TOP 315 or below BOT 311 From the fundamental point of view for today we have 2 big volatility news: NFP Unemployment Both of them are expected to be lower values than last month -> bearish . With this in mind, I suggest a SHORT IRON CONDOR BUY CALL 315 SELL CALL 318 or other value(higher than 315) BUY PUT 311 SHORT PUT 308or other value(lower than 311)
NASDAQ:QQQ
by exlux
Short Iron Condor SPY 06 May 2022We can estimate with a 81% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be above 0.46% For this the market will stay above TOP 415 or below BOT 412 From the fundamental point of view for today we have 2 big volatility news: NFP Unemployment Both of them are expected to be lower values than last month -> bearish . With this in mind, I suggest a SHORT IRON CONDOR BUY CALL 416 SELL CALL 419 or other value(higher than 416) BUY PUT 412 SHORT PUT 409 or other value(lower than 412)
AMEX:SPY
by exlux
Short and Long Iron Condor QQQ 05 May 2022We can estimate with a 79% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 2.24% For this the market will stay within TOP 337 BOT 322 At the same time We can estimate with a 86% confidence that the volatility for today is going move more than 0.41% For this the market will stay above the TOP 331 BOT 328 From the fundamental point of view, yesterday we had the release of the interest rates, so I believe currently we are in a short relief moment, where we can have for some days/weeks a small bull trend For today we have no big volatility news, so we cant expect big surprises. Having said that we have 2 different ways of trading for today IRON CONDOR for the first option, with the 337sell 340buy Call / 322sell 319buy Put Reverse IRON CONDOR for the second option with 330buy 333sell Call/ 328buy 325sell Put
NASDAQ:QQQ
by exlux
Short and Long Iron Condor SPY 05 May 2022We can estimate with a 86.4% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 1.75% For this the market will stay within TOP 436.6 BOT 421.5 At the same time We can estimate with a 86% confidence that the volatility for today is going move more than 0.33% For this the market will stay above the TOP 430.4 BOT 427.6 From the fundamental point of view, yesterday we had the release of the interest rates, so I believe currently we are in a short relief moment, where we can have for some days/weeks a small bull trend For today we have no big volatility news, so we cant expect big surprises. Having said that we have 2 different ways of trading for today IRON CONDOR for the first option, with the 436sell 439buy Call / 421sell 418buy Put Reverse IRON CONDOR for the second option wiht 430buy 433sell Call/ 427buy 424sell PUT
AMEX:SPY
by exlux
Asianpaint 3400CE 3500CEAs of 23 February ASIANPAINT closed at 3237. If you look at the chart the stock is trading above the TRENDLINE. There is small RESISTANCE area between the price of 3262-3282.If it consolidate between the TRENDLINE and the RESISTANCE area for next 2-3 days then after that it can give a UP side momentum. If we look at the price of March 3400CE is trading at 40 and 3500CE is trading at 21. Adding one lot each which will cost around (6000+3135) 9135. It can give more than 100% return. STOPLOSS- If the main TRENDLINE broken exit the position TARGET- If the spot gives a high of 3% exit the 3500CE and book profit and hold 3400 CE DISCLAMIER- THIS IS JUST FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE,DO CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE TAKING POSITION WILL KEEP UPDATING.......KEEP FOLLOWING...
NSE:ASIANPAINTLong
by chartisttrader1
$EEM naked PUT, high PoP #option #trade #Trades #OptionsTrading The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is a good choice for today high IVR credit trade. High PoP, very predictable profit. Reasons: - high reward for Jan21 monthly expiry (mangeable with rolling) -> collecting credit - breakeven point is far - RSI is oversold. Max profit: $92 Probability of 50%Profit: 84% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 14% Req. Buy Power: $633 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 104 (very high) Expiry: 49 days SETUP : NAKED PUT for $EEM, because IVR is high, for 0.92cr * Sell 1 $EEM JAN21'46 PUT Management : ROLLING if daily candle is closing below of BE. Take profit strategy : 50% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 0.46db Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
AMEX:EEMLong
by TanukiTrade
Never time The Market, right?When it comes to your long term portfolio, please Dollar Cost Average into the S&P 500. Which I will explain how to in detail in my next post. However today I just want to show a small swing trading strategy theory I will try for fun. The reason I prefer the idea of swing trading is because it requires you to set your candle sticks to 4h,1d, or sometimes even 1 week. This is good because the more time range each candle stick has the more significance a simple trading pattern will have. In other words trend lines (support/resistance) will be respected. Its very difficult to trade with the market average unless you have a significant amount of capital, and even then your better off on other investments/trades. That's what got my head on option trading; this is a high risk and high reward form of trading. You either lose it all or you make a big return (rough explanation). All this being said that's why I think the S&P 500 is the perfect environment for option trading. I believe if you call/put when the candle hits the trend line you will almost always win; and for breakouts you can wait for the re-bounce. Please let me know what you think!
AMEX:VOO
by pastworks
$AMD IC 40% Profit and 77% PoP #amd #trading #optionsI'm waiting for this AMD corrention.... * Big red trending candle. * Reasonable safety S/R zones. * Long run and now correction. Why Iron Condor? Let the bulls/bears to choose direction, I would like to making money in any direction! Max profit: $286 Probability of 50%Profit: 77% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 40% Max loss with my risk management: ~$200 Req. Buy Power: $770 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 94 (very high) Expiry: 49 days SETUP: IC for 1.43cr each, because IVR ultra high * Buy 2 AMD Jan21' 110 Put * Sell 2 AMD Jan21' 115 Put * Sell 2 AMD Jan21' 170 Call * Buy 2 AMD Jan21' 175 Call Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing out of the the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~$200. Take profit strategy: 60% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 0.57db each. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NASDAQ:AMD
by TanukiTrade
S&P500 Iron Condor 60% profit 76% PoP50, high IVR for #optionsI just can't resist the very high IVR for large ETFs, like SPY. My most common strategies these at corrections are the Iron Condors, neutral or negative delta. SAFETY ZONES: 200MA could act as support, ATH could act as resistance. Max profit: $375 Probability of 50%Profit: 76% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 60% Max loss with my risk management: ~$150 Req. Buy Power: $625 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 49 (ultra high for S&P500) Expiry: 56 days SETUP : IC for , because IVR ultra high, for 3.75cr * Sell 1 SPY Jan21' 420 Put * Buy 1 SPY Jan21' 430 Put * Buy 1 SPY Jan21' 480 Call * Sell 1 SPY Jan21' 490 Call SETUP: IC for SPY, because IVR ultra high. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing out of the the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~150$. Take profit strategy: 50% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 1.88db. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
AMEX:SPY
by TanukiTrade