Get started

Optiontrading

Nifty Levels for 24/08/2022Dear traders, I have identified chart levels based on my analysis, major support, and resistance levels. Please note that I am not a SEBI registered member. Information shared here for educational purpose. Please consult your financial advisor before trading. NIFTY Nifty is up by 87 points. Nifty closed above 20 EMA , VWAP level near day’s high. We had a highly volatile day. PCR shifted down from 0.60 to 0.83 which is still in bearish zone. Highest open interest on call side at 18000 (Same as yesterday) Highest open interest on put side at 17500 (Shifted up from 17000) FIIs, DIIs & OTHER PARTICIPANTS DERIVATIVE DATA ANALYSIS: FIIs ( Bullish ): FII bought in cash market for 563 crores and bought in derivative market contract for 6510 crores (please do continue to read about whether they bought long positions or short positions). FIIs reduced their index & stock future long contracts & added short positions in index & stock future contracts. FIIs took long positions in index call as put contracts & reduced stock call & put contracts. DIIs (Mild Bullish ): DII sold in cash for -215.2 Crores. DIIs have slightly added new positions in Index & stock future contracts. Heavily reduced positions in options contracts. PRO ( Bearish ): Pro traders have added short index & stock future contracts. Reduced option contracts in index & stock call contracts. Added option contacts in index & stock put contracts. CLIENT ( Bearish ): Retail/ HNI added index & stock future contracts. Significantly reduced their index & stock call option contracts. Added index put contacts & reduced stock put long & short contracts. Shall we continue to expect high volatility in next few days? Shall we look for buy on dips or sell on rise opportunities? Please do share your comments. Have a happy, healthy & profitable day ahead!
NSE:NIFTY
by manishmgupta
Nifty Index Levels for 24/08/2022Dear traders, I have identified chart levels based on my analysis, major support, and resistance levels. Please note that I am not a SEBI registered member. Information shared here for educational purpose. Please consult your financial advisor before trading. NIFTY Nifty is up by 87 points. Nifty closed above 20 EMA, VWAP level near day’s high. We had a highly volatile day. PCR shifted down from 0.60 to 0.83 which is still in bearish zone. Highest open interest on call side at 18000 (Same as yesterday) Highest open interest on put side at 17500 (Shifted up from 17000) FIIs, DIIs & OTHER PARTICIPANTS DERIVATIVE DATA ANALYSIS: FIIs (Bullish): FII bought in cash market for 563 crores and bought in derivative market contract for 6510 crores (please do continue to read about whether they bought long positions or short positions). FIIs reduced their index & stock future long contracts & added short positions in index & stock future contracts. FIIs took long positions in index call as put contracts & reduced stock call & put contracts. DIIs (Mild Bullish): DII sold in cash for -215.2 Crores. DIIs have slightly added new positions in Index & stock future contracts. Heavily reduced positions in options contracts. PRO (Bearish): Pro traders have added short index & stock future contracts. Reduced option contracts in index & stock call contracts. Added option contacts in index & stock put contracts. CLIENT (Bearish): Retail/HNI added index & stock future contracts. Significantly reduced their index & stock call option contracts. Added index put contacts & reduced stock put long & short contracts. Shall we continue to expect high volatility in next few days? Shall we look for buy on dips or sell on rise opportunities? Please do share your comments. Have a happy, healthy & profitable day ahead!
NSE:NIFTY
by manishmgupta
Nifty Index Levels for 23/08/2022Dear traders, I have identified chart levels based on my analysis, major support and resistance levels. Please note that I am not a SEBI registered member. Information shared for educational purpose. Please do take trade based on your own analysis and risk-taking abilities. Never ever worked with fixed mindset. Any news/result data may change the direction of the trend instantly. Focus on learning so you can take correct/better decision based on your analytical skills. PLEASE NOTE THAT NO ONE CAN BE 100% CORRECT. OVERALL, WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEARN & BE ABLE TO CLOSE IN PROFIT EVEN IF WE ARE 50% CORRECT WITH RISK REWARD RATIO 1:2 Indix VIX further jumped up by 4.12% from 18.29 to 19.04. Dow Jones is down 494 points and Nasdaq is down by 287 points at this point of time. Please do check closing data for tomorrow's trading reference. US DOLLAR INDEX has up beyond 108 level and continuous weakness in Rupee is certainly not a good sign for Indian market. Nifty closed below 20 EMA and VWAP level. We had a highly volatile day. PCR shifted down to 0.6 which is clearly in bearish zone now. Today also selling was quite sharp . Highest open interest on call side at 18000. Highest open interest on put side at 17000. FIIs, DIIs & OTHER PARTICIPANTS DERIVATIVE DATA ANALYSIS: FIIs ( Bearish ): FII sold in cash market for -454 crores and bought in derivative market contract for 3319 crores (please do continue to read about whether they bought calls to add new long positions or bought puts to add more short positions in the system). FIIs significantly reduced their long as well as short contract in Index future and added short stock future contracts. FIIs took long positions in calls. FIIs significantly added two times PUT long positions in Index compare to short positions. FIIs are heavily short in stock futures and hedged their positions using call & put options. DIIs (Mild Bullish ): DII sold in cash for -85 Crores. DIIs have reduced their positions in Index & future contracts. PRO ( Bearish ): Pro traders have reduced their long index & stock future contracts and heavily wrote call options in index & stocks. CLIENT ( Bullish ): Retail traders significantly reduced their long future contract positions in index & stocks. Heavily wrote call options in index, bought puts & calls hedge their position Overall, shall we continue to expect high volatility for next few days? Shall we look for sell on rise opportunities based negative cues? or Is market is taking few steps back for bigger move towards all time high? We are getting close to important support level . Please do watch it carefully to avoid getting into bears trap at lower levels & bulls trap on bounces. PLEASE DO SHARE YOUR FEEDBACKS AS WELL AND TRADE SAFELY & CAREFULLY WITH STRICT SL (STOP LOSS) & MAXIMISE YOUR PROFIT USING TRAILING SL. Have a happy, healthy & profitable day ahead!
NSE:NIFTYShort
by manishmgupta
Bank Nifty Index Levels for 23/08/2022Dear traders, I have identified chart levels based on my analysis, major support and resistance levels. Please note that I am not a SEBI registered member. Information shared for educational purpose. Please do take trade based on your own analysis and risk-taking abilities. Never ever worked with fixed mindset. Any news/result data may change the direction of the trend instantly. Focus on learning so you can take correct/better decision based on your analytical skills. PLEASE NOTE THAT NO ONE CAN BE 100% CORRECT. OVERALL, WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEARN & BE ABLE TO CLOSE IN PROFIT EVEN IF WE ARE 50% CORRECT WITH RISK REWARD RATIO 1:2 Indix VIX further jumped up by 4.12% from 18.29 to 19.04. Dow Jones is down 494 points and Nasdaq is down by 287 points at this point of time. Please do check closing data for tomorrow's trading reference. US DOLLAR INDEX has up beyond 108 level and continuous weakness in Rupee is certainly not a good sign for Banking sector as a whole. Bank Nifty closed below 20 EMA and VWAP level. We had a highly volatile day. PCR shifted down from 0.67 to 0.61 which is clearly in bearish zone now. Today also selling was quite sharp . Highest open interest on call side at 39500. Highest open interest on put side at 37000. FIIs, DIIs & OTHER PARTICIPANTS DERIVATIVE DATA ANALYSIS: FIIs (Bearish): FII sold in cash market for -454 crores and bought in derivative market contract for 3319 crores (please do continue to read about whether they bought calls to add new long positions or bought puts to add more short positions in the system). FIIs significantly reduced their long as well as short contract in Index future and added short stock future contracts. FIIs took long positions in calls. FIIs significantly added two times PUT long positions in Index compare to short positions. FIIs are heavily short in stock futures and hedged their positions using call & put options. DIIs (Mild Bullish): DII sold in cash for -85 Crores. DIIs have reduced their positions in Index & future contracts. PRO (Bearish): Pro traders have reduced their long index & stock future contracts and heavily wrote call options in index & stocks. CLIENT (Bullish): Retail traders significantly reduced their long future contract positions in index & stocks. Heavily wrote call options in index, bought puts & calls hedge their position Overall, shall we continue expect high volatility in coming week? Shall we look for sell on rise opportunities based negative cues? or Is market is taking few steps back for bigger move towards all time high? We are getting close to important support level. Please do watch it carefully to avoid getting into bears trap & bulls trap in bounces. PLEASE DO SHARE YOUR FEEDBACKS AS WELL AND TRADE SAFELY & CAREFULLY WITH STRICT SL (STOP LOSS) & MAXIMISE YOUR PROFIT USING TRAILING SL. Have a happy, healthy & profitable day ahead!
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by manishmgupta
6
Iron Condor IBM 13 May 2022IBM 13 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 32.77%/year So that converted into daily is 2.06% Since we are in need of the open price for the highest accuracy, I am going to take the current price which is 133.7 (you can also wait for the opening price and take +- 2.75 points from the open candle value) So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed with a probability chance of 90% within TOP 136.5 BOT 131 From fundamental point, today we have no big volatility news that can impact our asset. At the same time the current values are expected to be sidemarket/bullish.
NYSE:IBM
by exlux
Iron Condor DIA 13 May 2022DIA 13 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 24.22%/year So that converted into daily is 1.52% Since we are in need of the open price for the highest accuracy, I am going to take the current price which is 320.6(you can also wait for the opening price and take +- 5 points from the open candle value) So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed with a probability chance of 85% within TOP 325.5 BOT 315.5 From fundamental point, today we have no big volatility news that can impact our asset. At the same time the current values are expected to be sidemarket/bullish. At the same the weekly expected channel top and bot values for DIA were TOP 335 BOT 314
AMEX:DIA
by exlux
Iron Condor SPY 13 May 2022SPY 13 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 33%/year So that converted into daily is 2.08% Since we are in need of the open price for the highest accuracy, I am going to take the current price which is 398(you can also wait for the opening price and take +- 8.1 points from the open candle value) So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed with a probability chance of 85% within TOP 406 BOT 390 From fundamental point, today we have no big volatility news that can impact our asset. At the same time the current values are expected to be sidemarket/bullish. At the same the weekly expected channel top and bot values for SPY were TOP 423 BOT 386
AMEX:SPY
by exlux
2
Key points Iron Condor ES/SPX 09 May 2022Current expected movement from IV = 2.08% At the same tim we estimate with a 80.2% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 1.97% for this the market will stay within TOP 4167 BOT 4006 All of this being calculated with the opening value candle of today From the fundamental point of view we have not big volatility news today With all of this in mind, we can try a scalp entry for today with the next setup Iron Condor for 0 DTE ES Call Sell 4160 Call Buy 4185 Put Sell 4010 Put Buy 3985 This would give us an expectency of 0.41$ per each 1$ lost At the same time we have a 80.2% probability so 80.2% * 0.41$ - 20%*1$ = 12.88$ ROI after 100 trades
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May XLEXLE Energy Sector 9 - 13 May The weekly VXXLE> Volatility Index for XLE Energy Sector Implied = 38.6 In this we have to standard it for weekly session 38.6 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 5.35% My historical product is telling me with 1.2x coficient that the expected movement for this week E Volatility = 38.93 / sqrt(52) = 5.4% With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 82.7% chance that the market stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol So for next week this range for us is going to be TOP - 87.4 BOT - 78.5
AMEX:XLE
by exlux
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May Amazon AMAZON 9 - 13 May The weekly VXAZN-> Volatility Index for AMAZON Implied = 50.24 In this we have to standard it for weekly session 39.02 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 6.97% My historical product is telling me with 1x coficient that the expected movement for this week E Volatility = 51.59 / sqrt(52) = 7.15% With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 83% chance that the market stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol So for next week this range for us is going to be TOP - 2460 BOT - 2131
NASDAQ:AMZN
by exlux
3
Short Iron Condor QQQ 06 May 2022We can estimate with a 81% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be above 0.64% For this the market will stay above TOP 315 or below BOT 311 From the fundamental point of view for today we have 2 big volatility news: NFP Unemployment Both of them are expected to be lower values than last month -> bearish . With this in mind, I suggest a SHORT IRON CONDOR BUY CALL 315 SELL CALL 318 or other value(higher than 315) BUY PUT 311 SHORT PUT 308or other value(lower than 311)
NASDAQ:QQQ
by exlux
Short Iron Condor SPY 06 May 2022We can estimate with a 81% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be above 0.46% For this the market will stay above TOP 415 or below BOT 412 From the fundamental point of view for today we have 2 big volatility news: NFP Unemployment Both of them are expected to be lower values than last month -> bearish . With this in mind, I suggest a SHORT IRON CONDOR BUY CALL 416 SELL CALL 419 or other value(higher than 416) BUY PUT 412 SHORT PUT 409 or other value(lower than 412)
AMEX:SPY
by exlux
Short and Long Iron Condor QQQ 05 May 2022We can estimate with a 79% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 2.24% For this the market will stay within TOP 337 BOT 322 At the same time We can estimate with a 86% confidence that the volatility for today is going move more than 0.41% For this the market will stay above the TOP 331 BOT 328 From the fundamental point of view, yesterday we had the release of the interest rates, so I believe currently we are in a short relief moment, where we can have for some days/weeks a small bull trend For today we have no big volatility news, so we cant expect big surprises. Having said that we have 2 different ways of trading for today IRON CONDOR for the first option, with the 337sell 340buy Call / 322sell 319buy Put Reverse IRON CONDOR for the second option with 330buy 333sell Call/ 328buy 325sell Put
NASDAQ:QQQ
by exlux
Short and Long Iron Condor SPY 05 May 2022We can estimate with a 86.4% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 1.75% For this the market will stay within TOP 436.6 BOT 421.5 At the same time We can estimate with a 86% confidence that the volatility for today is going move more than 0.33% For this the market will stay above the TOP 430.4 BOT 427.6 From the fundamental point of view, yesterday we had the release of the interest rates, so I believe currently we are in a short relief moment, where we can have for some days/weeks a small bull trend For today we have no big volatility news, so we cant expect big surprises. Having said that we have 2 different ways of trading for today IRON CONDOR for the first option, with the 436sell 439buy Call / 421sell 418buy Put Reverse IRON CONDOR for the second option wiht 430buy 433sell Call/ 427buy 424sell PUT
AMEX:SPY
by exlux