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ORCL

THE WEEK AHEAD: ORCL, CCL, KMX EARNINGS; XLE, IWM, IYREARNINGS: I'm not really seeing anything at the moment that meets my criteria for good liquidity, high rank/high implied to play this coming week for earnings-related volatility contraction plays. While ORCL (53/44/9.8%) announces Tuesday after the market close, 30-day's only at 44 with the July at-the-money short straddle paying 9.8% of the stock price, which doesn't exactly get my motor running for a volatility contraction play. CCL (47/142/31.6%) announces Thursday. It has the right volatility metrics and the July short straddle is paying a whopping 31.6% of the stock price, but most are playing this for a recovery from a coronavirus beat-down. For what it's worth, the July 15th 17 short put (19 delta; bullish assumption) is paying 1.17 at the mid price with a cost basis of 15.83 if assigned. KMX (60/71/15.11%) announces on Friday morning, but isn't the most liquid thing in the world, with the July 17th 75/105 showing bid 3.60/mid 3.80/ask 4.00. SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY: XLE (55/61) XLU (53/38) SLV (51/38) EWW (49/46) GDXJ (49/63) EWZ (45/61) SMH (45/46) GDX (45/41) XOP (41/79) USO (18/68) Notes: I don't have any XLE on currently. The August 21st 32/48 (17 delta) is paying 1.76. BROAD MARKET: IWM (66/50) EFA (42/36) QQQ (41/34) SPY (39/35) Notes: If you're going to sell premium in broad market, small caps is probably the place to do it. Unfortunately, we're kind of mid-cycle here with July only having 34 days left in it and the August, 69, but if you're willing to go a bit longer with duration: IWM August 21st 113/159 (17 delta), paying 4.81. DIVVY YIELDING EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS FOR THE IRA: IYR (65/47) EWA (57/44) XLU (53/38) EWZ (45/61) HYG (45/26) EFA (42/36) SPY (39/35) TLT (23/20) EMB (23/18) Notes: Pictured here is an IYR (3.51% yield) September 18th 65 short put paying 2.02 at the mid. I've been generally laddering out as an acquisitional play for the IRA, but July has only 34 days left, and there is currently no August (although there will probably be one post June opex), so a single September put would have to do.
AMEX:IYR
by NaughtyPines
ORCL - Inverse HnS and Earnings Coming UpTake a look at this chart for ORCL - long term consolidation pattern and an inverse HnS has formed. A break below the right shoulder would invalidate this trade to the upside. I plan to buy commons as well as calls out to August. I hope we profit TOGETHER! If you found this to be insightful or helpful, please show appreciation by hitting that like button. If you want more ideas I invite you to follow as well! I try to be here for all of my followers with any questions they might have. Feel free to shoot me a DM or comment below to start a conversation!
NYSE:ORCLLong
by chartsareforships
THE WEEK AHEAD: CHWY, LULU, COST, ORCL EARNINGS; EEM, VIXEARNINGS: It's a fairly light week for earnings, but there is some highly liquid underlyings to play for volatility contraction: CHWY (--/74): Monday, After Market Close. LULU (64/42): Wednesday After Market Close. COST (44/23): Thursday, After Market Close. ORCL (42/26): Thursday, After Market Close. Pictured here is a CHWY January 17th 21 short put at the 20 delta, paying .78 at the mid price as of Friday close with a 20.22 break even. In this particular case, I'm not looking to play earnings for volatility contraction, but waiting for earnings to pass, as well as lock up to end, which is supposed to occur on the 11th (Wednesday) with a whopping 83% of outstanding shares subject to lockup. Depending on what happens with the share price at the end of lock up, as well as implied volatility, I will look to put on a play thereafter. The only other play I'm potentially interested in is LULU, where the January 17th 190/200/260/270 iron condor is paying 2.61 with delta/theta metrics of -1.69/5.35. It's not a one-third the width setup, but LULU has had a tendency to move, so my inclination would be to go wider to stay clear of potential friskiness. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: UNG (55/54) TLT (44/13) USO (21/30) GLD (19/10) GDXJ (18/27) With the possible exception of UNG, shorter duration premium selling isn't ideal here, with rank below 50% and 30-day below 35%. As an interesting aside, however -- compare and contrast premium selling in UNG and USO versus trading /NG and /CL directly, using at-the-money short straddle pricing: UNG January At-the-Money Short Straddle: 2.68 versus 18.03 (14.9%) /NG January At-the-Money Short Straddle: .309 versus 2.25 (13.1%) USO April At-the-Money Short Straddle: 1.75 versus 12.32 (14.2%) /CL March At-the-Money Short Straddle: 6.76 versus 59.07 (11.4%) BROAD MARKET: EEM (8/16) QQQ (7/16) IWM (6/16) SPY (2/13) First Expiries in Which At-the-Money Short Straddle Credit Exceeds 10% of Value of Underlying: EEM: June: --4.48 versus 43.07 (10.4%) QQQ: June -- 21.49 versus 205.00 (10.5%) IWM: September -- 20.05 versus 162.83 (12.3%) SPY: September 34.46 versus 314.87 (10.9%) As with the exchange-traded funds, short duration premium selling isn't paying here, so your choices are to hand sit or sell in higher implied volatility expiries farther out in time. I've been largely opting for the latter, while simultaneously exercising some restraint as to sizing, since the last thing you want to do is tie up buying power with longer-dated setups, only to have literally nothing left over to take advantage of shorter duration volatility pops. Secondarily, I've been managing these longer-dated setups more aggressively, taking them off in profit in many cases a good deal short of 50% max. FUTURES: /6B (60/12) /NG (55/58) /CL (21/29) /6E (20/5) /GC (19/10) As with the exchanged-traded funds, volatility is in natty and oil with /NG paying in short duration (January). One thing I noticed is that /CL expiry-specific premium selling doesn't necessarily lend itself to going longer-dated (at least at this moment in time) since implied is about the same regardless of where you go (i.e., January: 28.9%; February: 29.5%; March: 29.3%), so all you're basically getting paid for is duration, as compared to -- for example -- expiry-specific implied in SPY, which generally increases incrementally over time (i.e., January: 14.5%; February: 15.7%; March: 16.8%, etc.). This is not necessarily a bad thing, just an observation of what you're getting by going out farther in time with /CL options versus other instruments that have a sort of expiry-specific implied volatility "term structure." VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished Friday at 13.62, with /VX futures contracts trading at 16.32, 17.51, 17.63, and 18.19 in January, February, March, and April respectively. Consequently, the contango environment remains productive for term structure trades in those expiries, although it's apparent that you won't get much trading February over January due to the fairly small differential between where those two contracts are trading at the moment. In practical terms, the February 17/19 short call vertical is paying .65 with a 17.65 break even versus 17.51; the March 17/19, .65, with a 17.65 versus 17.63. In other words, it doesn't pay to go longer in duration (February versus March) here ... . As before, I'll look to put on bullish assumption plays in VXX or UVXY at extreme lows (these setups don't work well in VIX directly due to /VX term structure) and add bearish assumption in VIX, VXX, and/or UVXY on VIX pops to greater than 20 on top of any VIX term structure trades that I'm working ... .
NYSE:CHWY
by NaughtyPines
ORCL - A Bullish Future?The stock has created a symmetrical triangle pattern since the beginning of June. Also mixed into this pattern is an earnings gap halfway through the month. The price has continued to trade within this gap range but the consolidation has led to the stock price moving out of the triangle pattern. The recent pullback, while remaining in the gap zone, is now testing the previous triangle resistance line as support. The stock is also exiting an oversold position. I have two Fibonacci Extension levels targeted. The 61.8% & 100% levels are noted by the dashed green lines should the bullish move continue.
NYSE:ORCLLong
by Chartimistic
5
THE WEEK AHEAD: ORCL, GDXJ, TBT, TLT, SMH, OIHEARNINGS ORCL (50/29) releases earnings on Wednesday after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's New York session. Pictured here is a non-standard short strangle, with the short call side doubled up in order to compensate for greater than one dollar wide strikes: 1.30 credit, break evens at 48.70/58.15, and delta/theta of -5.52/58.15. As of Friday close, the June 21st to July 19th monthly volatility contraction is from 46.6% to 29.3% or about 29.7%. Look to manage intratrade by rolling the untested side toward current price on approaching worthless with a 50% max take profit target. Generally, I don't play stuff this small that doesn't have dollar wides, since rolling intratrade can be a headache, as can rolling out, since there is limited strike availability. It's really another aspect of liquidity, which is not only about the width of markets intraexpiry, but also about the availability of expiries out in time, as well as strikes. BROAD MARKET EEM (27/20) QQQ (23/20); NDX (24/20) IWM (23/19); RUT (25/19) SPY (21/15); SPX (19/15) EFA (16/13) With 33 days to go in the July cycle and 61 to go for August, we're kind of in the "in between" for the 45 days 'til expiry sweet spot, so I would wait until August comes closer into view for either broad market or sector if you want to keep things in that 45 days 'til expiry wheelhouse. SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS Top 5 By Rank: GDXJ (62/31), TBT (52/24), TLT (51/12), SMH (50/31), OIH (49/40). SINGLE NAME WITH EARNINGS IN THE REAR VIEW A lot of earnings start kicking off in the July cycle, so would wait to play these as earnings announcement volatility contraction plays instead of wading in here and getting caught in a volatility expansion. ME PERSONALLY To keep things simple, mundane, and boring throughout the summer months, I'm looking to just to play broad market for the next couple of cycles -- SPY/SPX, QQQ/NDX, and IWM/RUT. (See, e.g., RUT Sept Iron Condor below).
NYSE:ORCL
by NaughtyPines
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: ORCL, KR EARNINGS: EWZ, TSLA, CRONEarnings: ORCL: Announces Thursday after market. Rank/IV: 74/31. Sept 21st 68% Probability of Profit 20 delta 45/50.5 short strangle: .79 credit. KR: Announces Thursday before market. Rank/IV: 54/37. Sept 21st 72% Probability of Profit 20 delta 30/35 short strangles: .60 credit. Non-Earnings: EWZ: Rank/IV: 97/48 TSLA: Rank/IV: 95/57 GDX: Rank/IV: 68/30 USO: Rank/IV: 62/26 FXE: Rank/IV: 53/8 Others of Note: CRON: Background IV at 138% on volume of 24.1 million shares. Oct 19th 70% Probability of Profit 9/19 short strangle: 1.30 credit. See also (for other cannabis-related underlyings): TLRY: Background IV at 135% on volume of 9.02 million shares. CGC: Background IV at 98.5% on volume of 13.1 million shares.
NYSE:ORCL
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: PBR, USO, GE, T, ORCL, EWZWith various things Brazilian in implosion mode, it's no surprise that PBR and EWZ have high implied volatility here. PBR: Bullish Assumption Setups: The July 20th 30 delta 9 put is paying .43/contract, resulting in an 8.57 break even, which isn't very compelling, but might appeal to some smaller account holders who are willing to hold the short put until near worthless and or roll for duration/further cost basis reduction should the worst not be over (check out the weekly). The natural alternative is a synthetic covered call with the short put at the 70 delta 11 strike, which pays 1.55, and gives you a 9.55 break even. I would work the synthetic as a "money, take, run" affair and look to take profit at 50% max or sooner. Neutral Assumption Setups: The July 20th 10 short straddle pays 1.56 at the mid, with break evens at 8.44 and 11.56. Generally, I look to take profit on these at 25% (here, .39), but would naturally be prepared for a bumpy ride and to make adjustments as things unfold. USO: I generally don't like this instrument a ton as a petro play due to its size, with my preferred go-to's being XOP, XLE, and (when in a pinch), OIH. However, if you're willing to go a little larger than you usually would with contracts, it can be productive. The July 20th 13 short straddle pays .93/contract and is skewed quite short delta wise (-20.93). To neutralize some of that, I could see doing a July 27th "double straddle" with one straddle at the 13 and one at the 13.5 (you need to move to the weeklies to get the half strikes). That would pay 2.01 per contract, give you break evens at 12.25 and 14.25, and reduce the directionality to -9.67 delta. Taking profit on the whole shebang at 25% max (.50) wouldn't be horrible. GE and T: Both have earnings around the July monthly; I'd hold off putting on plays, opting instead to play for vol contraction around earnings ... . ORCL: Announces in 9 days, so sit on your hands and play the announcement. EWZ: With underlyings under $50, I've been short straddling or iron flying. The July 20th 34 short straddle pays 3.09, with break evens at 30.91 and 37.09. Naturally, that isn't for everyone, since short straddles and iron flies generally skew out delta-wise fairly immediately, so they're not "nervous nellie" trades or trades for the "delta anal"; for those kids, the July 20th 31/37 short strangle camped out around the 20 delta strikes might make more sense; it's paying .98.
NYSE:PBR
by NaughtyPines
COMPARISON/CONTRAST OF FOUR BULLISH TRADES IN ORCLORACLE The Plain Jane "Spack" (Short Put/Acquire/Cover) Trade Sell the June 15th 44 put Metrics: Probability of Profit: 75% Max Profit: $69/contract Max Loss: Undefined Break Even: $43.31 Delta: 26.48 Theta: 1.17 The Plain Jane Covered Call Buy Shares at 46.23/Sell the June 15th 48 call Metrics: Probability of Profit: 48% Max Profit: $174 Max Loss: $4626 Break Even: $46.26 Delta: 66.29 Theta: 1.21 The 90/30 Poor Man's* Buy the Sept 21st 37 long/Sell the June 15th 48 call Metrics: Probability of Profit: ~50% Max Profit: $177 Max Loss: $823 Break Even: $46.23 Delta: 52.50 Theta: .55 * -- The back month bid/ask is wide in the off hours, but I wouldn't want this filled for anything more than a break even at where spot is currently trading. The At The Money Net Credit Put Diagonal Buy the Sept 21st 42 long/sell the June 15th 45 short put Metrics: Probability of Profit: ~50% Max Profit: Undefined Max Loss: $383 Break Even: $45.83 Delta: 21.29 Theta: .54 Comments: One of my frequent primary considerations is how much I want to hang up on the trade in buying power and -- to a certain extent -- that is depending on what kind of environment I'm working in (cash secured versus margin). As you can see, the Plain Jane covered call is quite pricey to put on, and I would probably never choose that option out of the gate because I don't like to buy stock at market: I'd rather sell short puts and get assigned shares that are lower in price and then proceed to cover instead. Even the "Spack" trade may be pricey for some, depending on the environment in which you're trading; if cash secured, you're going to pay $4331 to put that trade on, although you could buy a cheap, throwaway long put to reduce that buying power effect substantially without giving up much (e.g., the 35 long, which costs .07 to put on at the mid, results in a "definition" of the risk to the width of the spread (9-wide) minus the credit received (.63) or $837 instead of the over $4k you'd be paying to "go naked"). On margin, doing that doesn't get you much in terms of freed up buying power, since you're likely to pay $860 on margin to put the naked on. Out of all the plays, the net credit diagonal is cheapest to put on, but max profit is unknown since it will depend on how much you get for rolling the short put. From a max profit standpoint, the Plain Jane covered call and Poor Man's are comparable in pure dollar and cents terms, but return on cap is much higher for the Poor Man's (21.5%) versus the Plain Jane covered call (3.8% cash secured; twice that if on margin). From that standpoint, the naked "Spack" trade is probably the worst if you go undefined in cash secured: a 1.5% return on cap risked, although if it's better if you play it on margin (8.0%) or go with the uber wide spread with the throwaway long, which -- weirdly enough -- almost no one ever does in spite of the fact that it (a) defines the risk; and (b) dramatically improves return on cap ... . Takeaways: (a) Never covered call out of the gate; short put/acquire/cover instead; (b) there is little to no advantage of going naked over "wide defined" in a cash secured account; buy a cheap throwaway, define your risk, and conserve your buying power over tying up the large notional associated with a full-on naked; (c) Poor Man's have better return on cap metrics than virtually every other play; (d) for uber cheap buying power tie-up in small accounts, go with flexible, at the money net credit diagonal and opt for cost basis reduction with rolls of the short aspect over time.
NYSE:ORCL
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: TWTR, X, IYR, XLU, ORCL, IBMAlthough there are quite a few earnings coming up next week, only two catch my eye from a premium selling standpoint: Twitter and U.S. Steel. Twitter announces on Wednesday before market open; has a 30-day implied volatility of 75.19%; and the May 4th 20-delta, 74% probability of profit 27.5/38 short strangle is paying 1.28 at the mid with its defined risk counterpart, the 24/27.5/38/41 iron condor paying .87. US Steel (which can be a mover; 30-day implied 59.6%) announces on Wednesday after market close; and the May 4th 20-delta, 72% probability of profit 33/41 is paying 1.07 with its defined risk counterpart, the 30/33/41/44, paying .69. On the exchange-traded fund front, nothing looks particularly enticing at the moment. OIH and XOP round out the top of the pile volatility-wise, but their 30-days are sub-35, with other funds trailing off from there, so I'm looking at potentially putting on a couple of directional plays in single names where earnings are in the rear view mirror -- ORCL and IBM and/or in exchange-traded funds where concerns over rising interest rates and/or comparative yield have beaten them down, temporarily or otherwise -- IYR and XLU. I'll set out those ideas in a separate post, since there are multiple ways in which you can go directional with an options setup in those without hanging up a lot of buying power in actual shares. Additionally, sometimes it can be worth comparing and contrasting various "options options" so that you can decide which strategy suits your preference as to how much you want to devote to the trade ... .
NYSE:TWTR
by NaughtyPines
QQQ in troubleAfter forming an island reversal last week, complete with a massive bearish engulfing candle off of all time highs, the break below the trend line support and 20dsma seemed fitting. Today's action was bearish, as volumes were subdued relative to recent down days. This suggest that few participants are eager to defend prices in a significant way and bid the market higher, so it seems bears have taken control of this market. I'm a seller, especially specific names heavily weighted in the index. I closed TWTR short today after huge success, added to NFLX short, initiated ADBE and FDX short, stood still on my TSLA short, and opened a deep OTM FB long put after noticing unusually high volume at the April 115/120 strikes (several spreads, buying the 120's and selling 115's and massive volume relative to open interest). I also took a flyer on ORCL, buying April calls for a bounce, as this selloff seems overdone. Bottom line... Watch out below!
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by EchoAlphaBravo
THE WEEK AHEAD: MU, OIH, EWZ, XOP, GDXJThe only earnings play coming up next week that currently interests me from a premium selling/volatility contraction standpoint is MU -- with a background implied volatility in the 60's -- which announces earnings on Thursday after market close. Neither ORCL nor FDX -- which announce Monday and Tuesday respectively -- have sub-30 implied volatility, although they're probably worth watching to see if their implied's bump up closer to the announcement or, depending on price movement post announcement, whether there is an opportunity to take advantage of earnings announcement "afterglow." Preliminarily, the MU March 29th 20 delta 55/69 is paying 1.89/contract (off hours) with break evens at 53.11/70.89. The defined risk iron condor would require slightly more aggressive strikes to get one-third the width out of the longs -- the 53.5/56.5/67.5/69.5 (30 delta) in the March 29th pays 1.03 with break evens at 55.47 and 68.53. For short put/acquire/cover cycle traders who are looking to potentially get into MU lower than current market prices, the April 20th 25 delta 55 short put is paying 1.88 at the mid, yielding a break even of 53.14, a 12.28% discount over where the underlying is currently trading. Alternatively, you can look at going out to May here where the 55 is at the 30 delta, bring in 2.87 at the door and get a break even of 52.13 (a nearly 14% discount). As far as non-earnings is concerned, we're kind of in "the dead zone" between the April and May monthlies; for me, the April month is too short in duration (33 days to go) and the May, a bit too long (61 days). Nevertheless, here are the top four exchange-traded funds ranked by implied volatility -- OIH (29), EWZ (29), XOP (29), GDXJ (28) -- and by implied volatility rank/percentile: XHB, FXI, XLF, and XLB, all of which are at the upper end of their 52-week ranges. Unfortunately, that isn't saying much, since background implied in all of these is sub-25, with the preferred metric for background implied being >35%. It may be time to scrounge around for something directional to keep me engaged in "the dead zone" -- for example, this GE play (See Post below) ... .
NASDAQ:MU
by NaughtyPines
Oracle - Stocks to watch this monthORCL down 10% after earning season with 1.64% beat estimation. We have one more down after dividends share in october. From fundamental anaysis this sharp down only correction, coz oracle have many good financial data. from financial strength, this stocks have 6/10 score, with : Cash-to-Debt 1.26 Equity-to-Asset 0.42 Debt-to-Equity 0.95 Interest Coverage 6.81 and have 7/10 profitability/growth, with : Operating Margin %33.64 Net Margin %25.35 ROE %18.95 ROA %7.58 PE ratio : 21.04 If we look at technical analysis, before earning this stocks hit resistance channel up, and down 10%, but still inside channel. we have support around 0.382 fibonacci, but we still have 1 more down price after dividents this october. Maybe we still have false break after dividents and continue to bullish to reach new ATH with target at 54.77 and maximum at ABCD fibonacci retracement projection at 56.92
NYSE:ORCLLong
by AzrulAzir
1