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EUR/USD FOMC ForecastHello Traders, The market is in a range with price action lacking a firm direction and clearly waiting for a fundamental factor to drive it in either direction. The FOMC meeting tomorrow will be such a driver and we have two outcomes below along with our rationale. Outcome 1 - Rate Hike and Bullish Press Conference - 65% Likelihood: We favour a bullish statement and press conference from the FED given Donald Trump has signalled pro business policy and major infrastructure spending. We believe that this will put pressure on the FED to act now and raise rates to accommodate expected economic growth over Trumps first 100 days in office where his policies will be announced and actioned. Outcome 2 - No Hike and Dovish Press Conference - 35% Likelihood: Looking at the chart the market is waiting for direction. In the face of Trumps bullish growth ambitions the market is still undecided on the direction of the FOMC. We then keep our options open on a surge in the Euro as this outcome would mean the FED don't follow the President-Elects view of increased economic growth through infrastructure spending and pro business policies. How to trade: We suggest orders placed on the fringes of the blue box in either direction with small risk stop losses, it's likely price will surge in either direction on the rate decision and statement. Price will then fluctuate during the press conference however it is likely the comments in the conference will be supportive of whichever direction price moves after the rate decision.
Short
by EuroDollarExpert
Quick short and a long afterWe can start with a quick short, the market seems to be going for a slight drop, it's probably going to have some problems going through the 0.74500 (TP: 0.73964 SL: 0.75080). After the currency drops significantly, i expect it will try to break the 0.74500 resistance line and go try the 0.75000. Long at 0.74012 (TP 0.74802 SL: 0.73545). I will setup the second one as pending and good until the end of the day as i am not sure what the market will look like tomorrow and the long maybe kind of going too far.
Short
by JulienBeaulieu
GBPUSD Order, long 4HOrder for a long position on GBPUSD. The pair has proven to accept the fibonacci levels, and as such I will enter a position on fibonacci 61.8, formed from the uptrend from February to March, and target fibonacci 76.4, formed from the downtrend in March-April. The SL will be below the previous low, which is also below the strong support which was formed in 2002. The support has also been respected three times, rejecting the price from moving through. And as such it is reasonable to believe that it would be respected again. Order: Entry: 1.4100 SL: 1.399 TP: 1.438 Risk/Reward: 2.55.
Long
by AndreM.Moldegard-Eriksen