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US100 SHORT SKILLING:NASDAQ As shown on the weekly timeframe price went on to take out our inducement zone and mitigate the weekly bearish order block with long and impulsive candles, this weekly analysis concludes that for the next coming months we can maintain a bearish sentiment unless willing to trade pullbacks which will be bullish. Price will be on an overall bear trend for the next coming 3-6 months if fundamentals are on our side, BUT PRICE IS EXPECTED TO PRDUCE A CHOCH ENTRY SETUP IN THE NEXT 4-8 WEEKS(expect updates anytime) 1.possible levels for pullbacks will be: 14550 / 13573 / 12898 / 11735,price will likely bounce of from these levels before becoming bearish again. From these levels we can await bullish setups on lower timeframes (3/5/15/30/45 min and the 4h ) 2.Proper bearish setups will start to form now on lower time frames Expect entry updates any time from now.
SKILLING:US100Short
by jack_cheques
3
Smart Money Concepts swing trading odyssey|Ep.12|8R long|EURUSDBack yet again with the Phase C continuation limit order entry model for swing trading, using ICT's SMC toolkit. This is again being documented as a reference for my future YouTube channel. This description took too long to write, sorry if price has moved away from where I got tagged in... So, these Phase C swing trades are proving to be a bane - the last one on Gold went sideways for about 2 weeks leading to me closing it today before inflation news with DXY showing weakness. Fed sentiment: Hawkish? The bond market says another 0.25% rate hike is likely and I think it has been priced in for a while. US inflation slowly coming down; 5% down to 4% y/y. Month on month it's not improving though and employment is only just starting to maybe drop, meaning room for another interest rate hike to tighten the economy. Trader sentiment: risk on (inflation easing + stock market rallying) On the Euro side, employment seems to be going up, and inflation is still too high. A rate hike is practically a given with the ECB having room to do it. Overall sentiment: The 0.25% rate hike seems to be baked in, and in spite of that, EURUSD continues to form a technical pattern that implies it's going higher. If the Fed doesn't make the expected rate hike, it will likely just accelerate Euro's move up. I am forecasting a technical move up more than a fundamental one. At LEAST to fill in the weekly FVG - if not breaking the last supply zone creating a new high for the year - but with the Fed expected to hold rates ~5% until possibly 2024 v.s. the pace of Europe's hikes and their stagnant GDP putting a limiter on their hikes, right now I don't see how EURUSD could rally much higher than that (but maybe this is just a lack of understanding on my part?) Technicals: W pattern formed on daily TF creating new demand zone. SMT divergence with the DXY gives me confidence that market makers won't push price lower during FOMC tomorrow. Entry: Phase C pullback into discount/50% of 4h swing low/daily bullish OB. As I said above, the SMT divs with Dollar gives me confidence to put my stop below the last 4h swing low despite news tomorrow, which could give an opportunity to scale in with bigger size, providing Euro doesn't just slip 60 pips in the blink of an eye. Exit/Terminus: mid-point of the gap (volume imbalance) on the weekly TF + old weekly high, which is an 8R trade. I plan to partial at the last supply zone which begins at ~$1.09500. Confidence: 7.5/10 for directional bias & 6/10 that they won't stop me out during FOMC tomorrow 😋. Here is the weekly chart. Notice the red box which is the volume imbalance I am using as my Terminus/DOL:
Long
by SmartMoneyConceptsOnYouTube
Smart Money Concepts swing trading odyssey|Ep.11|11R short|GoldTesting my own Phase C continuation limit order entry model for swing trading, using ICT's SMC toolkit. Fed sentiment: Hawkish? bond yields up/possibly more hikes/USD strength Trader sentiment: risk on? (Nasdaq rally/debt ceiling raise talks/inflation easing?) Supply/Demand factors: people still in employment and spending money means demand Overall sentiment: should be bullish if not for hawkish fed and dollar strength Technicals: Gold overbought/in premium on higher timeframes, double top pattern yet to finish playing out. SMT divergence with Silver Entry: Phase C pullback into premium of 4h swing high/fair value gap. tightened up stop because swept PDH (prev day high) giving a nice potential 11R return Exit/terminus: MT of M -OB (50% of monthly bearish order block(Mean Threshhold)) Confidence: 7/10 Weekly chart: Monthly chart (see order block):
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SmartMoneyConceptsOnYouTube
4
V2.0 | 22R Gold Long Swing Trade | Smart Money Concepts/ICTThis is an updated plan for the macro Cup & Handle breakout Previous setup for the 30R Gold long didn't play out; the unconfirmed SMT divergence didn't get confirmed and there was no impulsive move away. The stop loss is larger due to the entry location. Not financial advice but if this trade idea inspires you, you could use an even bigger stop to avoid potentially getting stopped out by an errant news spike. 22:1 risk reward sounds cooler though doesn't it? SMT divergence in this setup between Gold & Silver has been confirmed this time; stops were swept on one pair but not on the other, before rallying upwards and creating a higher high on the daily timeframe. In theory the swing where stops were swept SHOULD hold now.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SmartMoneyConceptsOnYouTube
Possible 30R Gold Long - Swing trade - Smart Money Concepts/ICT1. Price has come back to mitigate the 4H +FVG (Fair Value Gap) created on the 4th April, sweeping a PDL (Previous Day's Low) in the process to clean out the stop losses of anyone in early longs from this past week. This is an early entry signal and I have started to scale in with a scalp. (This higher risk trading, and not financial advice!) 2. Price has also retraced to a W +OB (Order Block) 3. We have SMT divergence with Silver, which has not swept the same low; another bullish signal in SMC (Smart Money Concepts) - although it would be better to have the SMT divergence with the previous structure than the current one as this is still unconfirmed (Silver can still make a lower low!) ENTRY: ***IF*** price displaces/moves impulsively away now on the 15m timeframe, it can come back to fill the 15m +BPR (Balanced Price Range) left after the sweep of the 4th April lows. a 15m ChoCh (Change of Character) A.K.A. MSS (Market Structure Shift) would be ideal, but the last 15m swing high to be broken is a bit far away so the BPR fill is the alternative. This also lines up with the 4H +FVG which has a 4H +OB/Demand Zone below it. I have placed my stop loss below the Pennant's rPOC (Range Point Of Control) for a peace of mind instead of the wick of the stop hunt. I will post a zoomed in chart below.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SmartMoneyConceptsOnYouTube
1
$FTM Technical Analysis - R Fair Value Gap Turned Support *SMC**SMC* = Smart Money Concepts. See related Ideas for tutorials In Smart Money, there are specific candle formation that will lead to a lot of clues to price action results. Yesterday FTM was the product child of those clues. Currently, the price has hit the top od the daily / weekly fair value gap. I just closed my long position because I expect it to retrace to thebottom of the weekly fair value gap, which in turn is also a breaker. These will act as support so once price reaches $0.548 we should see that support start working it's magic Current chart label (1) Lower time frame (2) It could retrace to the bottom of the order block which would balance the chart on a weekly level and then would also turn bullish at$0.51885 - See chart two higher time frame 1 2 We shall see good luck and happy trading
FLong
by BodiesXWix
1
Q&As: order bookThere are people who trade based in order book exclusively & promote these so called orderflow trading platforms, even these days. Surely, it's a great deed to learn this interesting, exotic & unusual skill, but the thing is it's completely unnecessary. The real use cases for DOM aka LOB aka order book aka Level 2 data are mitigating adverse selection, reducing market impact & spotting potential counter agents. If you think deeper, all these issues are really all about position sizing and nothing else, you can operate as big as it's possible (depending how much diminishing returns you can let go), and the only thing that can help you figure it all out is order book. The one & only principle of orderbook analysis is to understand where's us (operators), and where's them (ones who just need to be filled), be nice with yours & be a nice counter agent for them. It's very simple, clients place big orders that immediately stand out. Everything else is us, we're spreading our orders equally all around the book. For some reason not many think about it, but as a maker it's good to not only provide liquidity aka make the market, but also to consume these huge limit orders if it lets you to offload some risk or to open a position if the prices are good. By doing so you always make the market better, the faster and in more clear fashion the market activity is unwinding - better for all of us. If you look at order book histogram and imagine it turned horizontally, you'll see peaks & valleys. So being inside a loading range (past a level) or nearby risk offloading areas (predetermined exit areas), you spread your limit orders the way they kinda fill these valleys, and you can also use market orders to kinda smooth the sharp peaks in order book. That's how you reduce your market impact.Your impact will start being too high when by filling the valleys you'll be creating new peaks, and by smoothing peaks you'll be creating new valleys. Easy enough? All the wise-ass reinforced learning & stochastic control models will output the same behavior, just a bit worse because they'll never defeat your "feel". They way you can process a feedback loop, as an organic, is DOPE. By monitoring your position in the queue you can decide to replace some limit orders that sit deep to somewhere where probabilities won't be your enemies. If you're not in the first 5% of the queue at these places, your're prone to adverse selection. Closer you are to the front of the level, the worse position in the queue is ok. Negligible but stable adverse selection has a huge negative long term impact, should be taken very srsly. In theory, it makes sense to care about order book as soon as you start trading more than 1 lot or if 1 lot is already a serious size on a given instrument. In practice, when you notice a statistically significant drop in revenue per lot on a given instrument, minding all other factors are equal, it's time to open dem books.
LSE:DOMEducation
by gorx1
#XMR - Remins Bullish Aiming for Equal HighsI entered around 190, BY THE timr I posted this it was already 194. In tough timers, look to monero to get you out from under. I've been scalping BTC and ETH. bUT Longing Monero aklways at thje right time. Started with a $100 account for fun in futures, nit at $449 in 2 wees. Now, a larger time frame it did get rejected zt bearish order block (Chart in messae) fahard but rebounded even harder. There's Natural iquidity sitting above the doyble eual highs. That.s where U believe you can take A BULK of you positino off and continue to see where the trade is headed. HTF CHART I don't think ETH amd BTC have hit their lows yet, But Monero will be the one to watch as it continues to climb.
Long
by BodiesXWix
$MTS - To Fill 4 Hr Fair Value Gap on Order Block For Up Bounce*SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. It's slowly working it's way down into the smart money "Buy Zone" or discounted area. With Kucoins 60% staking of the coin, I'm surprised it's going this low. But I have three short targets along the way up.
Long
by BodiesXWix