XAUUSD GOLD ICT trading concept Hey there guys
this trading concept is called ICT and its made by Michael
it's one of the best and high probability trading systems and I'm really into it
as you can see we have an order block candle on the left so we can set our sell limit position on that price
the stop loss should be above the swing high
I recommend you do not risk more than 0.5 % per trade; in this case, our risk to reward is one to two.
I hope it works
OANDA:XAUUSD
Orderblocks
XAUUSD Buy I'm interested in a tight Order Block entry seen on the 1 minute time frame. I like how it swept out previous liquidity and started towards the upside. The stop would be safest below the Fair Value Gap that the point of interest dipped into towards the left. And I would target the equal highs above.
A Comprehensive Guide to Order BlocksOrder Blocks Explained
Now we'll look at one of the important concepts we utilize to find our precise entry points:
order blocks.
So, what exactly is an order block? An orderblock is a visible spot on the chart where a
large order is being placed on the market. You'll notice the order being placed, followed
by a quick move from that region, leaving behind imbalances and a structures would be
broken
The candle before that impulsive move is what we call an "order block," but I want you to
remember that order blocks are essentially areas of supply and demand in the markets,
and we'll go over that later in an other idea.
Essentially, an order block is the fingerprint that market makers and
institutions leave behind on the charts that informs us of their activity and intent
which we can capitalise on. Unlike retail traders, the capital available to market
makers and institutions is enough to move the market and affect price. For this
reason, there are differences in the ways that market makers and retail traders go
about trading in the financial markets.
The first difference to understand is that market makers and institutions
cannot simply place a buy or a sell trade. Due to the high amounts of volume
behind each trade they place (millions of lots), a single buy or sell from institutions
would crash the market. For this reason, they have to hedge each position. In other
words, each time they place a buy, they have to place a sell at the same price, and
vice versa. For example, if a buy is placed at 1.34610, and price moves up 100
pips, the buy trade will be 100 pips in profit, whereas the sell trade from the same
price will be 230 pips in loss. Essentially there is an equal floating profit and loss.
The second difference between retail traders and market makers is that
market makers and institutions do not trade with a stop loss, therefore, the floating
loss in the sell trade from the example above won’t close itself. Therefore, once the
market is at a desirable high, market makers will close the buy positions in profit,
let the price trickle back to their entry point, and close the sell trade at breakeven.
Bullish Orderblock (Demand)
Looking at this textbook example, we can see that the red block was the last bearish candle before the impulsive move, the candle would normally consist mostly body with very minimal wicks, This is what we call our bullish order block. To mark out our OB we draw a zone from the top of the candle to the bottom, but you may also include the wicks.
Bearish Orderblock (Supply)
Looking at this textbook example, we can see that the red block was the last bearish candle before the impulsive move, the candle would normally consist mostly body with very minimal wicks, This is what we call our bullish order block. To mark out our OB we draw a zone from the top of the candle to the bottom, but you may also include the wicks. Looking at this textbook example, we can see that the grey block was the last Bullish candle before the impulsive move, the candle would normally consist mostly body with very minimal wicks, This is what we call our Bearish order block. To mark out our OB we draw a zone from the top of the candle to the bottom, but you may also include the wicks.
HOW TO TRADE USING ORDERBLOCKS
First stage is identifying your higher time frame directional bias. Whether you are looking for intraday or Swing entries you still need to understand which way the market is moving for the pair that you are focusing on. Essentially you want to identify Order blocks from weekly down to the hourly and work off there. However, the more experience you gain, you may find that you can trade intraday moves by having a short term directional bias from lower time frames and finding entries on an even lower time frames. Either way, the concept is exactly the same.
From above we can see a clear break of structure, this is the first thing we look for before looking for OBs. Reason for this, we want to find the candle that created this move, this candle is our OB. The OB is generally the last opposing candle before the move. So if its a bearish break, the OB is a Bullish candle. However, we need to understand what kind of BOS we look for and how to refine our OBs.
HOW TO REFINE ORDER BLOCKS
There are a few ways to refine the OB. The easiest would be moving left from the OB until you find the candle before the impulse which is still within the OB candles range.
Example:
As we can see above, the green candle following the OB hasn't overly moved or broken the range of the OB. This is now our refined OB. You can do this on all time frames. Alternatively, you can locate your OB, and you can refine down the time frames and find a clear open OB within the OB.
So here on the picture, that little candle with big wicks is our OB, however within that candle on a lower time frame, there is a clear OB and this is now our refined OB. You can go down by as many time frames as you like.
TIP: If you are happy with the RR from a particular time frame OB, then Simply use that one. Don't get greedy and don't use lower time frames if it makes you anxious.
UNDERSTANDING BREAK OF STRUCTURE (BOS)
There are two types of BOS, we prefer a full body break.
This is very simple to understand as shown below:
HOW TO TRADE USING ORDERBLOCKS
Safer entry
Identify your Point of interest on the higher time frame. In this example it was the hourly, however as mentioned, this concept can be applied to any time frame. The higher time frames such as 4 hourly or daily are more more swing entries with hourly and lower being intraday.
So here we can see our higher POI. Now from here, you can look deeper into that OB so you have an idea as to where price could potentially go before reversing. Once you find your OB, you can set an alert at the Open of your OB. This frees up your time, meaning you dont need to sit and stare at the screen. The reason we trade is to for our free time, so why waste time staring and waiting.
Once price taps your higher time frame OB, go to a lower time frame. This is up to you and what you are comfortable with, some prefer 1 min some prefer 15 min its up to you. But what we look for is a BOS and an OB on the lower time frame. Once we find our OB we set a limit order at either THE OPEN of the OB or 50% of the OB. This again is up to you.
Once we set the order and set our target to our higher time frame High in this example.
The benefit of using a safer entry over a risk entry:
- More confirmation for the trade
- May get a better RR for the trade
Cons:
- More time consuming
- Sometimes it may not form a BOS on the lower time frame and price may just shoot from the higher time frame OB. So you may miss trades.
Risky entry
This method is very simple. Once you locate your Higher time frame OB, you simply go down the time frames till you find an OB within the higher time frame OB which is clear. Once you find your OB, mark it out. Use an OB which gives you and RR you are comfortable with. Same as before you can set a limit order at the OPEN or the 50% mark of the OB with your stop loss below the low of the OB or the overall low and target the recent high or low depending on if you are buying or selling.
With this style of entry, it is of course riskier. This method is ideal when there is high momentum in the direction you are aiming for. If its more within a consolidation period, it is not worth trying a risk entry.
Either way you go about, you get similar results and its all dependent on your risk appetite and how you are comfortable trading. Trading is personal to you, you dont need to follow what everyone else is doing. You need to what you are comfortable with doing and how you are happy about going about it.
PSYCHOLOGY
This way of trading is all about precision and finding the market at the perfect time of reversal. However, don't get too greedy with the RR, there is nothing wrong with sacrificing a few PIPS and rr for a safer trade.
having a pip stop loss, is not the goal, having a safe trade and saving capital is the main goal. Our percentages are always gonna be crazy even with a 10 pip stop, so dont always look for a smaller stop if there isn't one available.
Focus on yourself and what you are comfortable with. Don't trade time frames that you are not happy trading. the goal is not to be replicas of Vertex traders. The goal is to be you and be yourself as a trader. Be selfish and think about yourself and your own growth.
FAQ
When do we delete orders? When TP is hit or if there is a new BOS leaving another OB
Best timeframes? Any that makes you comfortable . if lower time frames make you anxious, don't use it. You want to be calm and relaxed when trading, not on edge.
Best pairs? Main indexes or pairs.
US100 SHORT SKILLING:NASDAQ As shown on the weekly timeframe price went on to take out our inducement zone and mitigate the weekly bearish order block with long and impulsive candles, this weekly analysis concludes that for the next coming months we can maintain a bearish sentiment unless willing to trade pullbacks which will be bullish. Price will be on an overall bear trend for the next coming 3-6 months if fundamentals are on our side, BUT PRICE IS EXPECTED TO PRDUCE A CHOCH ENTRY SETUP IN THE NEXT 4-8 WEEKS(expect updates anytime)
1.possible levels for pullbacks will be: 14550 / 13573 / 12898 / 11735,price will likely bounce of from these levels before becoming bearish again. From these levels we can await bullish setups on lower timeframes (3/5/15/30/45 min and the 4h )
2.Proper bearish setups will start to form now on lower time frames
Expect entry updates any time from now.
USDCAD LONGFX:USDCAD On the weekly time frame price has fulfilled a bullish order block right after taking out our inducement level ,fulfilling the price stop hunt to create new higher highs. On the daily chart price showed an entry setup of a CHANGE OF CHARACTER ,in the approaching weeks the price will creating new movements to the upside.Entry setups can be searched for starting from now going forth.
AWAIT ENTRY UPDATES FROM ME
GOLD/ XAUUSD LONG/ BUY🔰 Pair Name : XAU/USD
🔰 Time Frame : 4HOUR
🔰 Scale Type : MID SCALE
🔰 Direction: BUY
In our latest analysis, we have observed a significant market imbalance, indicating that Gold is poised to retrace and fill the imbalance area. Notably, a distinct order block has materialized on the daily chart. It is worth mentioning that institutional orders have entered the market, evident from the formation of a clear inverted head and shoulders pattern just above the Daily Buy order block. This price action coincides with the release of the Friday NFP news.
Traders who may have missed the opportunity to enter the market at the order block can now exercise patience and monitor the 4-hour chart for a potential breakout above the neck line. Once the breakout occurs, it is advisable to wait for a retest of the breakout level before initiating a buy position. Our target price is set at the $1950 area, which corresponds to the location of the last unfilled imbalance.
In our opinion should NOT be lower than 1912 area.
Market Microstructure: An Extensive AnalysisI. Introduction
Market microstructure, a specialized area within finance, explores the intricate mechanisms involved in trading within financial markets. It focuses on how trades occur, the interplay between prices and information, and how these interactions collectively shape market dynamics. Understanding market microstructure enables investors, traders, financial institutions, and regulatory bodies to comprehend the process of price formation, make informed trading decisions, design effective trading strategies, and develop sound financial regulations.
II. Theoretical Foundations
Three fundamental theories underpin market microstructure: The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), the Random Walk Hypothesis, and the theory of Information Asymmetry. Each theory provides a unique perspective on the functioning of financial markets.
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH): The EMH, introduced by Eugene Fama, posits that financial markets are "informationally efficient," with asset prices instantaneously reflecting all available information. According to the EMH, consistently outperforming the market is impossible without assuming additional risk, since every piece of information that could potentially affect the price of an asset is already factored into the current price. There are three forms of market efficiency according to the EMH: weak, semi-strong, and strong, each reflecting the extent of the efficiency.
Random Walk Hypothesis: The Random Walk Hypothesis suggests that price changes in securities are independent and identically distributed, meaning that past movements or trends cannot predict future price movements. In essence, securities prices follow a 'random walk', making it futile to predict future prices based on historical data.
Information Asymmetry: This theory points to the situation where one party has more or better information than another. In financial markets, information asymmetry creates a dynamic where informed traders (insiders) can potentially exploit their information advantage over uninformed traders, disrupting market efficiency.
III. Role of Market Makers
Market makers play a pivotal role in financial markets, facilitating transactions by constantly quoting bid (buy) and ask (sell) prices for financial instruments. Their constant presence in the markets helps maintain liquidity and market efficiency.
Market makers are compensated for their services through the bid-ask spread - the difference between the bid price and the ask price. This spread represents the market maker's profit and compensates them for the risk they undertake in holding a particular security in their inventory, which might decrease in value.
IV. Order Flow and Price Discovery
Order flow, the process by which buy and sell orders are executed in the market, is integral to price discovery - the mechanism that determines the price of an asset in the marketplace. Analyzing order flow can provide valuable insights into trading activity and market sentiment.
When a large order hits the market, it can significantly impact a security's price, creating price volatility. Understanding order flow is therefore essential for managing risk, providing liquidity, and effectively navigating the market.
V. High-Frequency Trading (HFT)
High-frequency trading (HFT) employs advanced algorithms to execute large volumes of trades in microseconds. HFT can improve market efficiency and liquidity by reducing bid-ask spreads, rapidly processing new information, and providing additional liquidity to the market.
However, HFT also has potential drawbacks. Its speed can raise issues around fairness, with HFT firms potentially exploiting their speed advantage to the detriment of slower market participants. It may also increase market volatility and contribute to market instability, as evidenced by instances of 'flash crashes.'
VI. The Impact of Information Flow
Information plays a pivotal role in financial markets. Two categories of information that impact trading and investment decisions are public and private information.
Public Information: This includes macroeconomic data, corporate earnings reports, policy changes, and other marketnews that are equally accessible to all market participants. When this information is released, markets adjust as participants process and respond to the new information, causing immediate and often significant price changes. Understanding the dynamics of how public information impacts price can provide traders with an edge in predicting and navigating market reactions.
Private Information: This refers to non-public or unequally distributed information among market participants. Informed traders, who might have access to private information, can use it to their advantage, resulting in potential profits. However, this leads to information asymmetry, which can disrupt market efficiency and fairness as it creates an imbalance of knowledge among market participants.
The impact of information flow on market prices is significant. Rapid adjustments to new information keep the markets efficient, but they also introduce volatility. Information asymmetry can lead to market distortions and manipulative practices like insider trading. Therefore, understanding the flow of information is key to comprehending market microstructure.
VII. Market Microstructure Models
Several market microstructure models have been developed to better understand the relationship between information asymmetry, price determination, and market participant interaction:
The Sequential Trade Model: This model, also known as the "dealer model," posits a single dealer who trades with many customers. Dealers, who are assumed to be less informed than their customers, adjust their prices based on the order flow. For instance, an unexpected surge in buy orders would lead the dealer to infer that customers might have positive private information, and therefore, they increase the price to offset potential adverse selection risk.
The Strategic Trade Model: This model focuses on traders who tactically time their trades to maximize their expected profit. They consider the potential impact of their trades on future prices and act accordingly. For instance, a trader with private information about a forthcoming price rise might initially trade smaller quantities to prevent any significant price impact that could reveal their information.
The Market Making Model: In this model, multiple market makers compete for customer orders, and prices are determined based on this competitive dynamic. The market-making model allows for a more realistic market scenario where competition, rather than a single monopoly dealer, drives price adjustments.
These models offer valuable insights into the complex process of trading and price formation in financial markets.
VIII. Regulatory Implications
Understanding market microstructure is crucial for financial market regulators. They must ensure that markets remain fair and efficient while also being conducive to innovation and competitive market making. With the growing complexity and speed of financial markets—especially with the rise of algorithmic and high-frequency trading—regulators face the challenge of managing the delicate balance between allowing market innovation and preventing practices that might lead to market instability or unfair advantages.
IX. Future Directions
As technology continues to transform financial markets, market microstructure's importance in comprehending these changes cannot be overstated. The rise of digital assets like cryptocurrencies, the growing use of machine learning and artificial intelligence in trading, and the proliferation of decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms all necessitate a deep understanding of market microstructure.
New theoretical and empirical models will likely emerge to explain phenomena that are not well understood today, further deepening our understanding of market dynamics. Similarly, the regulatory landscape will continue to evolve in response to these changes, making the study of market microstructure crucial for informed policy-making.
X. Conclusion
Market microstructure is a crucial field in finance that examines the intricacies of trading in financial markets. Understanding how market makers function, the strategies of high-frequency traders, the impacts of information asymmetry, and how asset prices are formed is essential for participants across the financial landscape. As technological advancements continue to transform the financial industry, insights offered by market microstructure will be of vital importance in navigating these changes. The field will continue to grow in relevance, contributing to more efficient, fair, and resilient financial markets.
I hope that you find this information valuable, if you have any questions feel free to drop them in the comments. Enjoy!
Watch BTC Support and Order BlockBTC has recently been rejected from the middle of its range, signaling a bearish outlook. Keep a close eye on the key support level at $29200, a break below this level could indicate further downside potential.
However, there is a significant order block around the $26900 area, which might serve as strong support. If BTC reaches this level and shows signs of buying interest, it could lead to a potential price pump or rebound.
AUDCAD my suitable area for sellThe supply area ahead is very attractive to me.
I will wait for the price reaction to this strong area and enter a sell position with appropriate confirmations
As you can see, the exit of powerful candles from the order block area shows the strength and importance of this area
EUR/USD Short Idea - June 26 '23Potential trade to go short on EUR/USD, we just reacted on this orderblock that's the origin point of this strong bearish candle (imbalanced). We had a push higher on London Session (Potential fake move?) and a retest on the order block on NY Open with a bearish engulfing candle as confirmation. The retest of the zone is also the end of a Wolfe Wave pattern. Aiming at the next lows of liquidity for a potential 3.3R. Good luck traders!
4 forex break of structure OB ideas for todayHi, I prepared 4 high RR positions for today, applying my order block principles and All my knowledge I gathered the last 6 months.
I am not a professional, trade at your own risk, do your own research.
Order block principles:
1) OB must take liquidity or have the liquidity to take.
2) OB breaks something significant
3) OB is relevant to current price action
4) OB caused imbalance (made a fair value gap)
5) OB has a liquidity pool to target
Peter
ES/NQ Weekly Analisys Weekly Analysis
June 20 - June 23, 2023
During the previous week, NQ entered the zone of the daily Order Block (OB) and came close to testing the Mean threshold of that OB. It also entered the Monthly BB-.
Therefore, this week, I anticipate a retracement to the 4-hour OB level between 15188.00 and 15094. For an ideal scenario, I would like to see a bounce from the range of 15186.75 to 15142.50, targeting the Mean Threshold of the Daily OB at 15534.00. It's also worth monitoring the Critical Level of the Monthly Break Block at 15722.75, although it may not be reached this week.
To recap the structure: Consolidation, followed by Expansion, and then a Retracement before the Order Block and resumption of movement. Alternatively, it could be Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Reversal.
Hence, my retracement level before the Order Block is set at 15186.75. Inside that zone, there are 15-minute BB+, as well as 15-minute FVG and 1-hour FVG. If the retracement fails to hold at the OB level, we should anticipate a reversal phase where it breaks 15066 and drops further, ideally reaching the Daily SIBI level between 14963 and 14866.75.
The same analysis applies to ES: ES also entered the zone of the Daily OB (4615.00-4486.25), which aligns with the Monthly BB-. Remembering the structure: Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Retracement before the Order Block and resumption of movement. Alternatively, it could be Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Reversal.
For ES, my retracement level is set at 4431.75 to 4423.25. The 4-hour OB is located at 4419 to 4404.50, with 15-minute FVG and BB+ within this range as well. If the 4-hour OB fails to hold, we can expect a Reversal Phase, leading to a test of the SSL at 4393.75. The Daily SIBI is found at 4381.75 to 4369.50.
However, a bounce from the Retracement Area should fill the Weekly SIBI at 4506.25. Additionally, there is a Daily Breakaway Gap to consider. Key levels to watch are 4524.00 and 4531.25, which correspond to the Mean Threshold of the Daily OB.