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ETH "Buy the Dip" opportunity?The pullback I outlined in my last ETH post came to fruition, however, there was a surprise retest of resistance before failing again and pulling back. Now we are at the bottom of the ascending channel but if we lose support here, it looks like we may be forming a sideways channel, in light blue lines on the chart. With support of bottom of channel and 200 EMA on the 4h candle, seems like a good chance to hold here. Lets look at the details. ------------------------------------------- # ETH/USD Analysis – 4H Chart 📊 ## Structure and Price Action: **Parallel Ascending Channel** ETH/USD is trading within a **parallel ascending channel**, with price oscillating between the upper and lower bounds (green lines). The price is currently testing the **lower trendline support** of the channel, following a recent rejection near the **$4,000–$4,050** region. **Bearish Rejection at Resistance** Sellers stepped in at the **$4,050 Bearish Order Block (OB)** (red zone), leading to a sharp reversal. This indicates heavy supply at this level, halting upward momentum. **Bullish Order Block Retest** The price is approaching multiple **Bullish Order Blocks (OB)** around **$3,500–$3,600** (green zones), a strong demand area where buyers previously defended. --- ## Support and Resistance: **Immediate Resistance** - **$3,800–$4,000**: Key resistance zone aligning with the upper channel boundary and recent bearish OB. - **$4,050**: Critical rejection level and prior swing high. **Key Support Levels** - **$3,500–$3,600**: Primary demand zone, reinforced by bullish OBs. - **$3,300**: Secondary support area in case of deeper pullback. --- ## Indicators **EMAs (20/50/100/200):** - Price has fallen **below EMA 20 ($3,880.60)** and **EMA 50 ($3,810.46)** – short-term bearish bias. - **EMA 100 ($3,613.86)**: Acting as dynamic support near the current price. - **EMA 200 ($3,380)**: Long-term support level. **Parabolic SAR** - SAR dots are **above the price**, signaling bearish momentum. Watch for a shift below the price for trend reversal. **Volume** - Volume **spiked on the recent drop**, reflecting increased selling pressure near the lower channel boundary. **Stochastic RSI** - Stochastic RSI is **oversold** (3.69/7.86), signaling potential for a short-term bounce. **Money Flow Index (MFI)** - MFI sits at **23.89** (oversold), suggesting buyers may soon step in. --- ## Pattern Analysis: **Ascending Channel Breakdown Risk** ETH/USD is at the **lower channel support ($3,600)**. A breakdown below this level could invalidate the bullish channel and trigger bearish momentum. --- ## Probabilistic Outlook **Bullish Bounce (Primary Scenario):** If buyers defend the **$3,500–$3,600** zone and volume increases: - **First Target**: $3,800–$3,850 (EMA 20 and recent resistance). - **Second Target**: $4,000–$4,050 (upper channel resistance and bearish OB). **Bearish Breakdown (Alternate Scenario):** If price closes below **$3,500**: - **First Target**: $3,300 (next significant support). - **Second Target**: $3,200–$3,000 (psychological support and structural zone). --- ## Key Signals to Watch: 1. **Lower Channel Support ($3,600):** Break below = bearish continuation. 2. **Volume on Breakdown or Bounce:** Rising volume confirms the move. 3. **EMA 100 Support ($3,613):** Holding this EMA could trigger a short-term bounce. 4. **Stochastic RSI and MFI:** Both oversold; favoring bounce unless sellers persist. --- ## Order books Took a significant hit, losing about 15% of its prior levels. The market depth ration has remained stable, inferring bullish sentiment overall but weakening books can deteriorate this, we will look for order book levels to recover past today's levels to validate reversal. ## Conclusion ETH/USD is at a **critical juncture** within the ascending channel. Buyers must defend **$3,600** to maintain the bullish structure. A successful bounce targets **$3,800–$4,000**, while a breakdown below **$3,500** could open the door for a decline toward **$3,300–$3,200**. 🔍 **Watch volume and key support levels for confirmation of the next move.** 🚨
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by EncryptShawn
ETH could find footing around here...We had a steep incline, we tested it 4 times and it was support, we tested it a 5th time after rejecting a breakdown and she crashed through support and now we are nearing where we hope to get a footing. You can see where if we slightly adjust the angle of the channel from the prior super steep ascending channel to this new, pretty steep ascending channel, we are near the bottom of channel, near support and hopefully hold and bounce back up from here, would still be plenty bullish, with just a more reasonable trajectory. Looks like we will have the 200 (4h candle) moving average line up around this support line as well giving it double the chance of holding. If it breaks down, the price could drop a lot lower, like $3000-$2400ish even. if this is bottom line here, we have a little more down trend and probably some consolidation down here before heading back up, should let other assets breath some too. If it breaks through this, be prepared for more drop. Order books currently imply that more traders believe the price will drop more than traders who believe the price will rise. This could be a great entry op for ETH and many other assets but be vigilant, especially with order books in the current state, and it took a solid month for them to decline to their current state, so hoping for a two day reversal could be asking a bit much. I am currently optimistic but skeptical
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by EncryptShawn
ETH $3500 or moon soon?Well she tried to break out yesterday but was rejected, and ultimately pulled back to support. that support is short-medium length running, as it has provided support here 4 times in the past month and now we are hoping for a 5th time. But even if it breaks down here, we would be likely to see it go back down to the bottom of this ascending channel, at around $3500 depending on when we arrive there, its also the 200 (4hr candle) moving average. There is a strong likelihood that if we test this area we will hold support with double support, however in the unlikely event that support also broke down, we could be looking at heading back down to red line, which also is not unhealthy, when an asset breaks out, to come back and test its prior resistance as support, ETH never did do that. Here is the 1 day candle charts, just to show ETH was in a year decline when it broke out into this structure we are examining closer in this write up. Notice in the chart in this write up, the red line at the bottom, it is the dominate descending red line in that one day candle chart above. ------------------------ Something else though both ETH and BTC their order books sentiment is not so strong right now. I use CMF and i like to look at orderbooks from 10% depth of market to 100% depth of market and I watch the trendline of the asks, because, the more asks at 10-100% depth of market, thats positive sentiment, thats a lot of traders that have set limit orders expecting the price to go up. Where as when we see a rise in bids in the 10%-100% depth of market range, it means more traders are setting up to buy an anticipated coming dip, so they expect the price to drop. For ETH over the last month as the price has jumped, the asks above 10% have continued to decline and now recently the bids above 10% have started to run up. But also everything goes in waves, it would make sense that soon we could start another wave up and then its just a question of if it will be a bigger or smaller wave, indicating a growing or shrinking overarching "Greed". ------------------------ So the alternative to it breaking down here, which the recent market makes it seem more likely, is that we go back and try to break that resistance again and this time, succeed and make a nice strong run on ETH, but we have to be prepared for either. My gut says based on the recent strength of the market, we will start to see order books push a new cycle of increased trader confidence and see a break out here instead of a break down but the data above suggests a very real potential for a a pullback here. Overall, this still appears really early in ETH's break out from its year decline, I think we can expect much higher highs in the future with the only question being, how far in the future. As always be vigilant and adaptive, and DYOR!
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by EncryptShawn
Trade like the pros in dark pools█ Trade like the pros in dark pools If you're accustomed to trading on the stock exchange, you know that an exchange operates like a digitalized marketplace. Buyers and sellers gather around a stock and indicate what they're willing to trade for, hoping that two orders will match. Before you decide at what price you're willing to trade, you likely look at the order book depth. There, we see how many shares are seeking buyers or sellers at a specific price. For a trade to be completed, the so-called spread needs to be crossed. The spread is the difference between the buying and selling price, in the example above 20 cents (226.40 – 226.20). In stocks that are traded very frequently, the spread is smaller and it's seldom a problem to execute very large volumes on the open market. █ Dark pools simplify trading in small companies Many stocks have too small a turnover to place a larger order without significantly affecting the price. Therefore, professionals have used dark pools for many years. Leading brokers are now making this flow available to all their customers. The advantage of a dark pool is that you don't need to show your order to other market participants until a trade has been completed. This facilitates, especially, trading in larger volumes. Another advantage of dark pools is that trades are made at so-called midprice. Returning to the example above, a trade would occur when someone is willing to pay the full spread of 20 cents. Had the order book been a dark pool, the midprice would have been 226.30 SEK. In this way, it results in a better price for both buyers and sellers. For those trading in larger volumes, this can mean a lot of money. █ All orders pass through dark pools The fact that dark pools are now available to everyone does not mean that all orders should be placed there. In fact, there are several barriers to how much trading can be routed this way before the dark pool is temporarily limited. When you place a regular order, thanks to so-called smart order routing, it will check if a better completion can be achieved via this dark pool than on the open market. So, whether you choose to actively place an order in the dark pool or not, you can benefit from the characteristics of the dark pool. █ Shouldn't the exchange be completely open? A criticism of dark pools is that they are exactly as they sound, hidden. But all trades made in Nasdaq Stockholm's dark pool are visible under completions. Stocks with low turnover can be difficult to trade without significantly affecting the price. ⚪ Let's take another example. Here we have a stock where the entire buy side corresponds to just over 130,000 SEK. That's a lot of money, but not an unreasonable holding for a private individual. This is also an order book from a company with a market value of about 1.6 billion. Thus, a small company, but not so small that trading for a couple of hundred thousand SEK should be unreasonable. Here, the spread is also 30 cents. Which is over one (1) percent on this stock price. Being able to halve this cost can save a lot of money both directly and over time. It is also possible to hide parts of an order today. In the advanced order placement on the open market, there is actually a tool for that problem as well. There, you can set the visible number of shares to be shown in the order book. █ When you should use the dark pool If you have never had problems with your order placement, you probably don't even need to consider placing an order in the dark pool. But if you trade stocks where you need to split your orders to not swallow too large a part of the order book, it might be valuable to try. ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
OMXSTO:ERIC_AEducation
by Zeiierman
3
BTC touching the 5 year ascending trend line! Best buy op but...Just a quick word because of where we are and my pointing out this 5 year trendline as a great entry point and the current geo-economic situation. We dont know what effect the cov19 will have on crypto, maybe Sunday was crypto joining the global stock sell off, its too soon to know and we are right at support. Anyway, this is still the best opportunity you will have to buy BTC if this trend that has maintained for 5, almost 6 years, continues to provide support here . If we break below this in a meaningful way, things could get real bad. I normally would have zero fear about adding large here and I have added to my position today but If we drop below this line in a meaningful way, I am prepared to liquidate to USDC and wait on the sideline while markets finish crashing. I hope crypto can endure the coronavirus sell off. I suspect if we do hold we will have one more test at the top descending blue line at most but possibly not even that high, then back down to the 5/6 year trend line one more time possibly before making its next big move. I watch the grids to anticipate support and resistance and anticipate timeline. I am still long Crypto bot on a tight stop loss from here. Also using order book trends I was able to see the trend shift both before the bulk of the crash and as it turned around > Consider adding historic orderbook analysis to your tool belt @ vcdepth.io This is not investment advice, sharing my observations, DYOR!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by EncryptShawn
1