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Gold Price Hits New All-Time High Near $2,757 - Have a Look NextGold has once again proven its status as the ultimate safe-haven asset, recently reaching an all-time high just shy of the $2,757 mark. This surge comes amid rising geopolitical tensions and increasing expectations for further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Despite a rise in US Treasury yields, the yellow metal's upward momentum remains strong as investors flock to it during times of uncertainty, highlighting its enduring appeal as a store of value. Factors Behind Gold’s Historic Surge 1. Geopolitical Tensions Global geopolitical risks have escalated recently, leading to a rush toward safe-haven assets like gold. Heightened conflicts in the Middle East and lingering tensions in Eastern Europe have fueled fears of broader market instability. Gold, historically seen as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty, has been one of the primary beneficiaries as investors seek to protect their portfolios. 2. Expectations of Further Fed Rate Cuts Market sentiment is increasingly tilting toward additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The anticipation of lower interest rates typically supports gold prices, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. With economic data pointing to slower growth and possible deflationary pressures, the Fed may be inclined to continue its dovish stance, further boosting gold’s appeal. 3. US Treasury Yields and Safe-Haven Demand Even as US Treasury yields have risen, signaling expectations of a stronger US economy, gold's ascent has not been hindered. This decoupling suggests that other factors, like risk aversion and safe-haven demand, are currently driving the metal’s price. Growing fears of a potential Trump presidency in 2024 have added an extra layer of uncertainty, prompting investors to seek the stability that gold provides. Technical Analysis: Is a Retracement on the Horizon? From a technical standpoint, the recent surge in gold prices suggests that the metal may be poised for a near-term pullback. Here’s why: Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Analysis: According to the latest COT report, retail traders remain heavily bullish on gold, a potential contrarian indicator that often precedes a short-term price reversal. Meanwhile, the so-called "smart money" appears to be scaling back on long positions, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment. Seasonal Forecast: Seasonality patterns indicate that gold might be approaching a reversal phase. Historically, gold has shown a tendency to retrace after significant rallies, especially when retail sentiment becomes overly bullish. This seasonal forecast aligns with technical signals that suggest a possible correction. Potential Retracement Levels: If gold begins to retrace from current levels, key support zones to watch would include $2,700 and $2,650, where previous resistance levels could now act as support. Traders should keep a tight stop-loss to protect against potential downside risks, especially given the ongoing volatility in global markets. Trading Strategy: Cautious Optimism with a Tight Stop-Loss While the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and monetary easing expectations, short-term traders should exercise caution. With the potential for a near-term pullback, the ideal strategy may involve waiting for a retracement to key support levels before considering new long positions. Risk Management: Given the current elevated price levels, it’s crucial to maintain a tight stop-loss to manage potential downside risk. Potential Reentry: If a retracement occurs, investors could look for signs of stabilization around the $2,650–$2,700 range before reentering the market. Final Thoughts: A Bullish Long-Term Outlook with Short-Term Caution Gold’s recent surge to near $2,750 highlights its role as a global safe haven amidst uncertainty. However, with retail sentiment leaning heavily bullish and the possibility of a technical correction looming, traders should remain cautious in the short term. Despite the potential for a pullback, gold’s long-term fundamentals remain intact, driven by geopolitical risks, monetary policy expectations, and overall global economic uncertainty. As always, a balanced approach, considering both the fundamental and technical factors, will be essential to navigating the evolving landscape of gold trading. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GOLD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
1
XAUUSD 30m Short: Setup with Strong Seller PresenceI’ve initiated a short trade on XAUUSD at this level, observing that price is dropping swiftly. There is significant selling pressure in this price zone, especially on the futures market, which didn’t take out the high. Given the sensitivity of the price action, quick reactions are necessary, as we see how this trade develops from here. Technical Analysis: • The price has retraced and rejected from a key resistance zone, where sellers are currently dominant. • Futures data reveals a strong selling interest at these levels, adding confidence to the short position. • The trade setup aligns with momentum indicators, suggesting bearish continuation in the short term. • Price did not clear the recent high in futures, creating a double top structure, which adds confluence for the downside move. Risk Management: • Stop Loss (SL): Positioned above the recent highs to minimize risk exposure in case of an unexpected reversal. • Take Profit (TP): Targeting a reward zone based on the Fib retracement levels, where support could potentially hold. A 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio is maintained, ensuring a balanced approach to this trade. Conclusion: This setup requires swift action due to the sensitivity of the price action. We’ll monitor closely for further confirmation from the market. If the downward momentum holds, we expect this to be a profitable trade. Stay mindful of the risk, and adjust if necessary as price action unfolds. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by AR33_
Slow move down the roadChoppy move in Gold and also is MIners. So I expect an intermidiate stop at 37$-38$ for GDXY sometime in the first two weeks of July. At that time, gold should be at 2200 (futures, cash is about 20$ more). So i will close my short position at that level. Enter a long I still think is risky as weeky and monthy trends are bearish. So each one should trust in their only analysis and risk to do so. I will probably enter a long position for some days, normally 6 to 8 trading days is the more It colud last the rally., but is not worth if you no are levaraged somehow. After that i will probably enter a HUGE SHORT position again FROM 40$ or so (as I expect) to ...could be around 33$...still to be seen...in end August or September, with gold around 2000$.
AMEX:GDXJShort
by JAY_c5velm
41
GOLD Struggles as Robust NFP Report Boosts USDGold has entered a bearish consolidation phase following the release of a robust Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which revealed that the US economy created significantly more jobs than anticipated in May. This unexpected job growth has prompted investors to reconsider their expectations for a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Consequently, US Treasury bond yields remain elevated, and the US Dollar (USD) has surged to nearly a one-month high, creating a challenging environment for the non-yielding yellow metal. Market Dynamics 1. Strong NFP Report: The recent NFP report showed substantial job creation, far exceeding market expectations. This has dampened hopes for an imminent rate cut by the Fed, influencing market dynamics significantly. 2. Elevated US Treasury Yields: The strong jobs data has kept US Treasury bond yields high, as investors adjust their portfolios in anticipation of a delayed rate cut. 3. Strengthened USD: The USD's rally to a nearly one-month high further pressures gold prices, as a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Technical Analysis RSI Divergence on H4: Despite the bearish outlook, there is a noticeable divergence in the RSI indicator on the H4 timeframe, suggesting potential for a bullish reversal. This divergence occurs in a significant support area, indicating that a rebound may be on the horizon. Trading Strategy Given the current market conditions and technical indicators, our outlook is leaning towards a long position. Here are the key considerations: - Support Area: The presence of a strong support area and RSI divergence on the H4 chart suggest that the downside may be limited and a recovery could be imminent. - Risk Management: Traders should implement strict risk management strategies due to the overall bearish sentiment and strong USD. Setting stop-loss orders below the support level is advisable to mitigate potential losses.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
GOLD Market Outlook: Accumulation Phase and Bullish PotentialGold prices extended their gains on Monday, trading just below the all-time high of $2,450 reached during the Asian session. This movement is driven by growing expectations that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may ease monetary policy in 2024. After hitting the peak at $2,450, the price experienced a retracement to the 50% Fibonacci level, which coincides with a high-value area and the 20-period VWAP moving average. This confluence of technical factors suggests that the price may be entering an accumulation phase, indicating the potential for a new swing high driven by a bullish impulse. If the market transitions to a distribution phase, the price is likely to revert below the 78.6% Fibonacci level, which has been identified as our stop loss. This level provides a crucial support point that, if breached, could signal a significant shift in market sentiment. This week, the U.S. economic docket will be heavily influenced by statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, leading up to the release of the latest Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday. These minutes will offer insights into the Fed's current stance on monetary policy and potential future actions. Additionally, on Thursday, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report is expected to provide further evidence of a cooling labor market. This report, coupled with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, will be closely watched for indications of broader economic trends. Market participants should pay close attention to these developments, as they will likely influence gold prices and overall market sentiment. The interplay between technical indicators and fundamental economic data will be key in determining the next major move in gold prices. As always, traders are advised to stay informed and adjust their strategies accordingly in response to evolving market conditions. In summary, gold prices are positioned just below their historical peak, with technical indicators suggesting potential for further gains. However, the upcoming economic data and Fed communications will play a critical role in shaping market dynamics in the near term. Maintaining a close watch on these factors will be essential for navigating potential market shifts and making informed trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
#PAXG/BTC 3D (Binance) Descending wedge on supportPax Gold printed a dragonfly doji and looks ready for mid-term recovery towards 50MA, in sats. ⚡️⚡️ #PAXG/BTC ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: Binance Signal Type: Regular (Long) Amount: 13.1% Current Price: 0.05392 Entry Targets: 1) 0.05301 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 0.06309 Stop Targets: 1) 0.04897 Published By: @Zblaba LSE:PAXG BINANCE:PAXGBTC TVC:XAU TVC:GOLD paxos.com/paxgold Risk/Reward= 1:2.5 Expected Profit= +19.0% Possible Loss= -7.6% Estimated Gaintime= 2-3 months
Long
by TradingOn
Bearish XAUUSDEnglish Beautiful reaction in a 4hrs OB, in 1hr had a price action (candlestick) confirmation and I just clicked on sell in the moment, the operation is right now with a profit, let`s see how it goes in this weekend to conclude the bearish movement I`m waiting for a movemetn until 1974 (at least). Let´s see how it goes. *THIS IT NOT INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT, THIS IS ONLY FOR ANALYSIS AND EDUCATION PURPOSE* Español Hermosa reacciòn en un OB de 4hrs, en 1hr dió acción de precio con una confirmación (patrón de vela japonesa) y solamente entré por mercado en venta en el momento, la operación está en profit actualmente, estoy esperando un movimiento hasta 1974 por lo menos. Veremos qué sucede. *ESTO NO ES RECOMENDACIÓN DE INVERSIÓN NI NADA QUE SE LE PAREZCA, ESTO ES SOLO PARA ANÁLISIS Y EDUCACIÓN*
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by DarkTradingCapital
1
GOLD Prices Surge Amid Geopolitical Tensions, Dovish Fed...Gold Prices Surge Amid Geopolitical Tensions, Dovish Fed Gold price is showing strong momentum for its next upward move, targeting the $1,880 level. A weakening US Dollar, driven by dovish Federal Reserve expectations, combined with a positive market sentiment, sets the stage for Gold's ascent. As we analyze the technical setup over a 4-hour timeframe, it's evident that Gold is poised for a fresh upswing. In recent times, Federal Reserve policymakers have adopted a more dovish tone. Traders have adjusted their expectations, with the likelihood of another rate hike from the Fed before the end of the year now hovering at a mere 13%. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic's statement that "we don't need to increase rates any more" and similar sentiments from other Fed officials reflect this cautious outlook. They believe that higher bond yields might reduce the need for the Fed to take further action. These dovish comments reinforce the belief that rising borrowing costs for both households and businesses could help alleviate inflationary pressures, potentially dissuading the Fed from further tightening its monetary policy. The expectation of a dovish Fed, combined with hopes of additional stimulus measures from China, has boosted risk appetite. Even amidst uncertainties arising from the Hamas-Israel conflict, China is reportedly considering issuing more than CNY1 trillion ($137.1 billion) in sovereign debt for infrastructure projects, aiming to meet its annual growth target. These factors have created a bearish scenario for the US Dollar and driven US Treasury bond yields lower. As a result, Gold buyers remain confident, keeping prices near weekly highs above $1,860. However, the potential for further gains in Gold price is currently held in check, as traders exercise caution ahead of significant events. Specifically, they are awaiting the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data and the Minutes from the Fed's September policy meeting, both scheduled for Wednesday. These events could contribute to the bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar and support Gold's recovery from seven-month lows. In the technical analysis, we find that Gold faces two important levels of interest today. These levels correspond to the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, which align with a previous resistance area. This zone may act as a supply area, causing a temporary pullback in the direction of the prevailing bearish trend. Alternatively, Gold could continue to decline in the coming days, targeting the previous lower low. A critical level to watch is 1901.050, as any bullish notion will be reconsidered at this point. Short-Term Setup | Our preference: Short positions below 1901.050 with targets at 1850.000 & 1810.550 in extension.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
28
GOLD Price Awaits US NFP Data Amidst Dollar ConsolidationGold Price Awaits US NFP Data Amidst Dollar Consolidation Gold prices are showing signs of stabilization after two consecutive days of correction from an 11-month high. The recent consolidation of the United States Dollar (USD) has provided some respite to the precious metal, which had experienced downward pressure. However, the fate of gold remains uncertain as investors eagerly await the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, a crucial indicator that could shape the direction of both the USD and gold in the near term. Gold Price Recap Gold price (XAU/USD) is currently hovering around the $1,820 mark after bouncing back from a weekly low of $1,813 during the early Asian trading session on Friday. The precious metal is grappling with headwinds as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain its 'higher-for-longer' stance on interest rates. Market participants are looking to the highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls report for clarity on the state of the labor market. Market Dynamics The subdued tone surrounding the US Dollar can be attributed to a moderately optimistic sentiment in the Asian session, despite mixed developments in the Chinese property market. Nevertheless, the precious metal remains under pressure as higher US Treasury yields weigh on non-yielding assets like gold. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has retreated to 106.40 after pulling back from monthly highs. US Treasury yields have also eased, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.73%, while the 2-year yield remains at 5.02%. Key Data and Market Focus The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on September 30 improved to 207,000 from the previous reading of 205,000, surpassing market expectations of 210,000. Furthermore, the US Balance of Trade deficit was $58.3 billion, lower than the anticipated $62.3 billion and the $64.7 billion recorded in July. The US employment data set to be released on Friday will be the focal point for traders. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 170,000, a decrease from the 180,000 additions reported in August. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to drop slightly from 3.8% to 3.7% in September, while Average Hourly Earnings are likely to rise by 4.3% year-on-year, consistent with the previous figure. The outlook for Gold Gold traders are closely monitoring the US Average Hourly Earnings data for September, the Nonfarm Payrolls report, and the Unemployment Rate. These data releases have the potential to induce market volatility and guide trading decisions. Depending on the outcome of the NFP report, gold prices may either make a push toward $1,850 and beyond in the event of a weak report or face headwinds if the data suggests the Fed could pursue another rate hike by year-end. In Conclusion Gold prices are stabilizing as the US Dollar consolidates, but the impending US Nonfarm Payrolls data release remains a significant driver of market sentiment. Investors are poised for potential market movements following the NFP release, with the direction of both the USD and gold hanging in the balance. Our preference Below 1851.000 look for further downside with 1805.00 & 1790.00 as targets.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
10
GOLD Extends Declines in Moody Markets as Risk-Off Sentiment...Gold Extends Declines in Moody Markets as Risk-Off Sentiment Prevails Amidst turbulent market conditions characterized by risk-off sentiment, the price of gold continues its decline. The precious metal is facing headwinds primarily driven by concerns related to interest rates and the persistent rise in US Treasury yields. Gold spot prices are on the verge of challenging eight-month lows, with further downside potential looming. Gold's Recent Performance Gold spot prices have faced a consistent downturn, declining by $20 per ounce on Monday to reach $1,830.00 on the charts. This marks the sixth consecutive trading day of losses for gold, and the XAU/USD has closed either flat or bearish in nine of the last ten daily trading sessions. The decline in gold prices is largely attributed to market concerns about a potential global economic slowdown. As a result, investors have been seeking refuge in safer assets, contributing to the downward pressure on gold. Interest Rate and Yield Concerns One of the primary drivers behind gold's recent struggles is the rising interest rates and US Treasury yields. The continued ascent of these indicators has led to uncertainty and risk aversion in the market, prompting investors to reevaluate their portfolios. Investors have been closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance on interest rates. While the Fed is expected to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period, it would require a significant increase in inflation expectations to trigger a new rate hike cycle. Investors are hopeful that the lack of significant shifts in the Fed's rate expectations, often referred to as the "dot plot," will help cap further losses for gold. Hawkish Fed and Elevated Yields The Fed's commitment to a "higher-for-longer" interest rate strategy has driven US Treasury bond yields to multi-decade highs. This has, in turn, bolstered the US Dollar (USD), which has contributed to the decline in gold prices. The market consensus is that the Fed will continue to pursue its hawkish stance, with expectations of at least one more rate hike by the end of the year. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester's remarks further reinforced these expectations. Mester emphasized that inflation risks remain skewed to the upside, and the central bank will need to maintain restrictive rates to achieve its 2% inflation target. This reaffirms the Fed's commitment to tightening monetary policy and diverts flows away from non-yielding assets like gold. Risk-Aversion vs. Safe-Haven Status Despite the generally weaker risk tone in the market, which typically favors safe-haven assets like gold, the precious metal has struggled to find support. Factors such as mixed Chinese Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) and the passage of a US stopgap funding bill have failed to provide sustained backing for gold. Concerns about a deeper economic downturn have overshadowed these developments, highlighting the dominance of interest rate and yield concerns. In conclusion, gold's recent decline reflects a complex interplay of factors, including interest rate expectations, elevated US Treasury yields, and USD strength. While gold retains its safe-haven status, it remains under pressure due to prevailing market conditions. Investors will continue to closely monitor the Fed's stance on interest rates and other macroeconomic developments to gauge the future direction of gold prices. Our preference Short positions below 1841.00 with targets at 1815.00 & 1807.00 in extension.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
19
GOLD Price Continues Losing Streak as US Dollar Seeks Demand ...Gold Price Continues Losing Streak as US Dollar Seeks Demand Amid Cautious Mood Gold prices are experiencing their sixth consecutive day of losses on Monday, with the US Dollar seeking fresh demand in a cautious market environment. Despite the United States successfully averting a government shutdown, investor sentiment remains cautious. The US Congress voted late on Saturday to pass a stopgap funding bill, gaining overwhelming Democratic support, thus preventing the federal government from experiencing its fourth partial shutdown in the past decade. Over the weekend, China's business PMIs delivered mixed results, which had a dampening effect on investor sentiment, particularly in light of the Chinese Golden Week holiday leading to lighter trading activity. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for September fell to 50.6 from the previous month's reading of 51.0, missing expectations of 51.2. The services index also declined to 50.2 in September compared to 51.8 in August, marking its lowest level since December. However, official data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that the Manufacturing PMI and the Non-Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, coming in at 50.2 and 51.7, respectively, for September. The persistently hawkish rhetoric from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the resilience of the US economy are contributing to a bullish sentiment around the US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields. Consequently, this environment has left non-yielding assets like gold struggling, with prices hitting seven-month lows. The focus now shifts to critical job data from the United States. On Tuesday, the JOLTs Job Openings data will provide fresh insights into the country's labor market, particularly as inflation shows signs of cooling down. In August, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, softened to 0.1% MoM and 3.9% YoY. Additionally, market participants will closely monitor the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell later in the day. These events could provide valuable hints regarding the state of the economy and the outlook for interest rates, potentially impacting the valuations of the US Dollar and the price of gold. Our previous forecast during the recent trading week. TODAY: Our preference Short positions below 1852.00 with targets at 1830.00
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
12
GOLD Prices React to US Dollar Correction Amidst Diverging...Gold Prices React to US Dollar Correction Amidst Diverging Central Bank Policies The US Dollar, which had recently scaled six-month highs against major currencies, is now undergoing a correction as central banks across the globe adopt contrasting stances. The Bank of Japan (BoJ), with its steady policy, has injected a sense of calm into the markets, while the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish stance has sent ripples of uncertainty through investors. In this article, we delve into the dynamics affecting the US Dollar's value and its impact on the price of gold. Central Bank Policies: The Tale of Two Approaches The recent divergence in central bank policies has become a defining factor in the currency and precious metals markets. The BoJ has chosen to maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy, signaling a reluctance to rush into withdrawing its massive monetary stimulus. This stance has provided stability and optimism, at least in the short term, boosting market sentiment. On the other hand, the Fed's hawkish stance has stirred concerns among investors. The Fed's indication of a 'higher for longer' interest rate view has weighed on sentiment. While the Fed did not raise interest rates in its recent policy meeting, it left the door open for further policy tightening, keeping markets on edge. Gold Price Reacts to US Dollar Retreat The price of gold (XAU/USD) has been quick to respond to the US Dollar's correction. As the dollar retreated, gold rebounded towards a critical resistance level. However, the path to further recovery remains uncertain due to a resurgence in US Treasury bond yields. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield is flirting with fresh 16-year highs of 4.511%, which could potentially limit gold's upward momentum. The Uncertainty Surrounding Interest Rates The primary driver of gold's uncertainty lies in the Fed's monetary policy. Investors are grappling with the question of when and how high interest rates will peak. The US economic resilience, driven by a robust labor market and buoyant consumer spending, has kept expectations alive for one more interest rate increase from the Fed. This has placed a ceiling on gold's potential gains. Support for Gold Amidst Falling Core Inflation Despite the US economy's strengths, core inflation has been consistently falling. This provides a supportive backdrop for gold prices. In times of inflation concerns, gold is often seen as a hedge against the erosion of purchasing power. With core inflation on a downward trajectory, gold's allure as a store of value remains intact. US Manufacturing Sector Concerns While the US economy's overall performance has been commendable, concerns loom over the manufacturing sector. The sector has been contracting for a considerable period, and the threat of further pressure persists. Companies are looking to control costs by reducing inventory, which, in turn, may negatively impact the manufacturing sector's outlook. Conclusion The US Dollar's correction from recent highs reflects the contrasting approaches of central banks worldwide. The BoJ's steadiness has calmed markets, while the Fed's hawkish stance has introduced an element of uncertainty. Gold prices, caught in this tug of war, are influenced by various factors, including rising US Treasury bond yields, economic resilience, and inflation dynamics. As investors navigate these complexities, the direction of both the US Dollar and gold prices remains uncertain, making it a crucial time for financial markets to monitor central bank policies and economic indicators closely. Our preference Short positions below 1950.00 with targets at 1912.50 & 1905.00 in extension.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
23
Gold Prices Consolidate as Markets Await Fed Decision...Gold Prices Consolidate as Markets Await Fed Decision Gold prices (XAU/USD) have entered a period of consolidation, trading around $1,930 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. Market participants are adopting a cautious "wait-and-see" approach ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision and FOMC press conference, events that could inject volatility into the market. In this article, we examine the factors influencing gold prices, including the Fed's anticipated interest rate decision and the performance of the US dollar. US Dollar and Treasury Yields The US dollar, as measured by a gauge against six major currencies, is holding steady near 105.10 after rebounding from a weekly low of 104.81. One significant factor contributing to the dollar's resilience is the US 10-year Treasury note yield, which has reached its highest level in 16 years, currently hovering around 4.365%. The elevated yields may limit the downside of the US dollar (USD) as it attracts investors seeking higher returns. Fed's Monetary Policy Decision The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce the results of its two-day monetary policy meeting, with widespread expectations that interest rates will remain in the range of 5.25% to 5.50%. According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September stands at 99%. However, the odds of another rate hike have diminished for the November and December meetings, according to the same tool. Market participants will closely monitor the post-meeting press conference led by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. During this conference, analysts and investors will seek hints about the "dot plot" (the Fed's projection of future rate hikes) and inflation expectations. Rising interest rates tend to increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, potentially casting a shadow on the precious metal's outlook. Impact on Gold The upcoming Fed interest rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday at 18:00 GMT, holds significant importance for gold traders. The outcome of this decision is likely to provide clear directionality to gold prices. Furthermore, later this week, the Bank of England (BoE) will announce its benchmark rates on Thursday, followed by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy meeting on Friday. Conclusion Gold prices are currently consolidating as market participants adopt a cautious stance in anticipation of the Fed's interest rate decision and the subsequent press conference led by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The performance of the US dollar, driven in part by rising Treasury yields, remains a critical factor to watch. The outcome of the Fed's decision and the associated commentary could set the tone for gold prices in the near term. While forecasts for gold remain bullish, the market's reaction to the Fed's actions and guidance will be pivotal in determining the precious metal's future trajectory. Our preference Long positions above 1924.00 with targets at 1940.00 & 1945.00 in extension.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
14
GOLD:Pressure Mounts with Expected Interest Rate Hike - SHORTIn the early European session, the price of Gold found temporary support around $1,943.00. Although there has been a short-term decline in the value of this precious metal, further losses are expected as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to raise interest rates to address persistent inflation in the United States. S&P500 futures have recovered some of the losses experienced in the Asian session, suggesting an improvement in market participants' risk appetite. Despite the release of better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday, US equities continued their bullish trend. Following a strong rally, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading sideways around 104.00. This indicates that the index is consolidating before potentially moving higher. The likelihood of another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve has also boosted US Treasury yields. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen significantly above 3.74%. After the seventh consecutive contraction in US factory activity, investor attention is shifting towards the upcoming release of the US ISM Services PMI data. While the US Manufacturing PMI has struggled to surpass the 50.0 threshold for the past seven months, the Services PMI has been performing relatively better. The preliminary report suggests a decline in the US Services PMI to 51.5 compared to the previous release of 51.9. However, the New Orders Index, which reflects future demand, is expected to improve to 56.5 from the previous release of 56.1. Considering our technical analysis, which indicates a bearish channel for gold, we are currently seeking a short setup with a target of $ 1,920.00
PHILLIPNOVA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
25
GOLD Retreats Amid Market Uncertainty Technical + Fund.AnalysisThe price of gold (XAU/USD) has recently pulled back from its weekly high, signaling a tentative stance from buyers. This retreat aligns with the uncertain market conditions, where conflicting factors are at play. On one hand, there is optimism surrounding the US debt-ceiling deal and a diminishing hawkish sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve (Fed). On the other hand, caution prevails ahead of crucial top-tier US data releases. Notably, the positive China Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) bolsters the upside momentum for XAU/USD. However, the probability of a 25 basis points rate hike by the Fed in June, standing at 40.0%, encourages gold buyers, further adding to the market dynamics. Looking ahead, the focus will be on the US employment indicators and flash PMIs for May, as they will provide clearer guidance for market direction. Additionally, the final round of talks by the Fed before the pre-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period for policymakers will be crucial. Furthermore, close attention should be paid to the voting by US Senators on measures to avert default conditions, even though the bill is expected to receive substantial support in the Senate, where Democrats hold the majority. If the slightly less hawkish bias from the Fed continues, supported by mixed US data, we may see a potential recovery in the gold price. However, if data releases remain positive and optimism for the US economy persists, XAU/USD bears may maintain their confidence. From a technical standpoint, the price continues to follow a bearish channel, with lower highs and lower lows, aligning with a pure swing trading strategy and the formation of ABCD patterns. Yesterday, after rebounding from the 61.8% - 78.6% Fibonacci area, the price experienced a new pullback in line with the bearish momentum. We anticipate a continuation of the bearish trend.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
12
GOLDReacts to USD Correction and Fed Rate Hike ExpectationsGold (XAU/USD) experienced significant selling pressure following a brief pullback near $1,970.00 during the Asian session. The precious metal has extended its decline to around $1,932.00 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) recovers and aims to reach a new daily high. Technically, the outlook suggests a bearish continuation for gold, with a potential decline to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $1,905.50 before a possible pullback and price increase. The fundamental overview indicates that with the return of full market activity on Tuesday, the US Dollar is losing ground in anticipation of positive news on the US debt deal, which is boosting risk sentiment. The US Dollar correction is challenging the 104.00 level against other currencies, accompanied by a 1.70% drop in 10-year US Treasury bond yields. Gold is currently defending the key support level at $1,937. If the risk-on trading sentiment gains momentum, the downward pressure on gold could intensify, especially as the US Dollar correction is expected to be limited due to increased expectations of a 25 basis points rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in June. Recent strong US economic data and the hawkish outlook on interest rates from Fed officials have contributed to this view. The market is now pricing in a 57% probability of a June Fed rate hike, down slightly from Monday but significantly higher than the 15% probability seen a week ago. Attention will now shift to the release of top-tier US economic data, particularly the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence data. Gold traders will also closely monitor developments regarding the US debt agreement and any relevant commentary from the Fed for further trading guidance.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
19
$PAXG/USDT 1D (#Bybit) Rising wedge breakdown and retestPaxos Gold just printed a double top + bearish engulfing, looks ready for a leg down towards 50MA support. ⚡️⚡️ #PAXG/USDT ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: ByBit USDT Signal Type: Regular (Short) Leverage: Isolated (12.0X) Amount: 8.6% Current Price: 2010 Entry Targets: 1) 2023 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 1945 Stop Targets: 1) 2062 Published By: @Zblaba LSE:PAXG #PAXGUSDT #Paxos #Gold #PaxGold #XAU #PreciousMetal paxos.com Risk/Reward= 1:2 Expected Profit= +46.3% Possible Loss= -23.1% Estimated Gaintime= 3-4 weeks
Short
by TradingOn
4
GOLD Rebounds, Targets Short Continuation Amid ConcernsGold rebounds further from a two-month low, reclaiming the $1,950 level during the early European session and breaking a two-day losing streak. The Gold price is benefiting from a slight weakness in the US Dollar (USD) as traders take profits following its recent surge to a two-month high. However, significant upside for Gold remains elusive, at least for now, as expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining higher interest rates to combat inflation could act as a headwind for the precious metal. The market is already pricing in the possibility of another 25 basis points (bps) increase at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in June. These expectations were fueled by hawkish comments from several Fed officials and better-than-expected economic data from the United States (US) released on Thursday. The revised estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report showed a 1.3% annualized expansion in the economy for the January-March quarter, surpassing the initial estimate of 1.1%. Additionally, a surprise drop in Initial Weekly Jobless Claims indicated strength in the US labor market, providing the Fed with room to continue raising rates. Attention is now focused on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which will influence expectations of future rate hikes and impact the USD. The yield on the two-year US government bond, sensitive to interest rate changes, has reached a two-and-a-half-month high due to hawkish Fed expectations. This may discourage aggressive bullish bets on Gold before the release of the PCE Price Index during the North American session. Furthermore, concerns about a global economic slowdown and the US debt ceiling are supporting the safe-haven appeal of Gold amid a generally softer tone in equity markets. Negotiations between Democrats and Republicans to raise the US government's borrowing limit have shown little progress, and credit rating agencies like Fitch and DBRS Morningstar have expressed concerns, potentially dampening investor appetite for riskier assets. Our idea is to anticipate a continuation of the short-term downward momentum trend, with a potential pullback and retest at the previous 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci area. This area coincides with the previous neckline resistance from the double top breakout and could prompt a price decline for a short-term continuation.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
27