DXY (4H): Price now at channel top and 127.2% extensionDXY (4H): Price now at the upper trend line of the bull channel as well as at the 127.2% extension and previous resistance.
Orvillewright
USDJPY (4H right shoulder of head and shoulder pattern completedUSDJPY (4H): After double bottoming (on Sept 27) at the 100.00 support zone, price moved sharply higher and is now back at previous resistance. Price has broken the rising wedge and has retested the bottom of the wedge as well as the 50 SMA. This is also the right shoulder of the head and shoulder pattern. My downside targets would be the 103.25 (Previous weekly open/swing low) then 102.8x (38.2% retrace/ 127.2 ext/ swing low). I would not buy at this level. I would wait until price break (above 104.64) through and retest the overhead resistance. Or look for buying opportunities if price reaches the previous weekly low at 102.8x.
USOIL (4H) trading at the top of a bull channelUSOIL (4H): After spiking higher oil is trading in a bull channel. It is currently approaching the highs of this bull channel. It has broken the high at $51.57. Will it hold above or will price rotate to the lows of the channel. Note that price is also at the 127.2% extension of a previous swing high. The trend is clearly bullish and I would only be looking for buying opportunities at the low of the channel or on a strong break and pullback of the $51.7x resistance zone. My upside targets are $52.4x (measured move) then $54.00 (127.2% extension). I would only consider selling if price breaks the bull channel as well as trade below $50. I would be looking for a retest of the SMAs. My downside targets are 48.0x (SR zone and 38.2% retrace) then $46.0x (SR zone and 61.8% retracement)
USOIL (Daily) failed at $51.70, trying againUSOIL (Daily): For more than a week oil has broken and held above $50. The next target is resistance at $51.70. It tried to break this level on Oct 11 but failed to do so. Here we are again. The trend is clearly bullish but be careful of buying into resistance.
SPX500 (4H) trying to break resistance at 214xSPX500 (4H): Price bounced off support near 2100 and is currently trying to break through the resistance zone at 214x. This resistance is defined by previous support now resistance as well as the 50 SMA. Buyers who entered in the 212x zone could consider taking partial profits. Those looking to buy should wait for a strong break and retest of this resistance zone. This break should bring prices above the 50 SMA. Sellers should wait for bearish price action and note that there is resistance at 2100 zone. My upside targets are 216x (previous highs) then 218x (previous highs). My downside targets are 212x (previous lows) then 2110 (previous low) then 2100 (round number and 127.2% extension)
SPX500 (Daily) price bounced of support near 2100SPX500 (Daily): Bounced off support in the 2100 zone. This area has acted as resistance for several months before the bulls achieve a clean break. Price has retested this area with the bulls showing their presence. Although the trend is up it should be noted that for the past three months the market has simply chopped sideways. In this situation I would stick to trading from the edges of this consolidation zone. Price is currently trading below the 20 and 50 SMA but until there is a clan break of 2100 I would patiently wait for buying opportunities. Price is also testing the upward trend line.
DXY (4H) trading at lows of spike and channelDXY (4H): Price is trading in a up channel after a sharp upward move. We are currently at the lower trend line of this bull channel. Price is clearly in a up trend. My upside targets are 98.1x (previous high) then 98.5x (upper measure move/previous high). I would not consider shorting until there is a strong breakdown of the up channel that brings price below the 50 SMA. My downside targets are 97.2x (resistance now support) then 96.3x (61.8% retracement, previous SR zone)
DXY (Daily) price approaching bull channel highDXY (Daily): Since breaking higher on Oct 4 the dollar has been particularly strong. It is trading in a bull channel and approaching the top of that channel. Price has recently broke resistance at 97.57 and is currently using this resistance as support. The next resistance zone is at 98.5x (previous high, 127.2% ext and measured move). Due to the strong up move there is significant separation between current price and the 20/50 SMA.
USDCAD (4H) price testing bull channel lower trend lineUSDCAD (4H): After spiking higher off the 1.28000 zone, price is trading in a slight bull channel. Note however than in the short term we are still trading below the 20 SMA as well as the 50 SMA. We are currently at the lows of this channel. If the lower bull channel line holds my upward targets are 1.316x (previous high) then 1.328x (previous high), then finally the channel highs. If price breaks the channel lows my downside targets would be 1.30000 (round number) then 1.284x (previous low). Note: Even though we are in a up channel the price action is currently bearish. Wait for bullish price action before going long.
USDCAD (Daily) testing 50 SMA, more support at 1.30000USDCAD (Daily): The USDCAD is in a slight uptrend where it is slowly grinding higher. It has tested the 50 SMA leaving a long lower wick. In this type of price action the up moves are not sustained with deep retracements. Major support is at 1.30000. My upside targets are at 1.327x (previous high) and 1.337x (127.2% ext as well as measured move). My initial downside target would be at 1.30000 (round number) and then 1.284x (previous low). Note: BOC overnight rate remains at 0.50% and Crude oil inventories will be out shortly these could affect volatility.
GBPUSD (4H) price trading at 50 SMAGBPUSD (4H): Price broke to the upside of the triangle pattern and is currently at the 50 SMA as well as near the previous high created Oct 11. The trend is clearly down and I expect selling of bearish price action at this level as well as the other overhead resistance zones (up to the 61.8% retracement). I would only consider buying (counter trend trade on a shorter timeframe) if I see a very strong break of overhead resistance with the pullback being held above the 50 SMA.
GBPUSD (Daily): Should I be buying the GBPUSD?GBPUSD (Daily): After trading in a range for more than 3 months the GBPUSD finally broke sharply to the downside. Price trades through, then pullback from the 1.20000 level as well as the lower range expansion target. Price is currently trading sideways and all the price action is contained within the candle created on Oct 11. Although the downward momentum has slowed there is still significant separation between the current price and the 20/50 SMAs. The GBPUSD is highly bearish (overall USD strength combined with overall GBP weakness). However it should also be noted that if prices retraces into the 50 SMA the profit potential is significant. Note also that the closest structural resistance is at the 1.280x zone.
USDJPY (4H): Rising wedge expecting break to the downside.USDJPY (4H): After double bottoming (on Sept 27) at the 100.00 support zone, price moved sharply higher and is now back at previous resistance. THe 50 SMA has catch up with current prices (due to slowing momentum) and there is a rising wedge which I am expecting to break to the downside. My downside targets would be the 103.0x zone (38.2% retracement) then the 102.0x zone (61.8% retracement). A strong break above the 104.3x zone could see prices testing the next resistance zone at 105.5x (127.2% extension)
USDJPY (Daily): is at the 61.8% ret. of the previous swing low.USDJPY (Daily): is at the 61.8% retracement of the previous swing low. Price has broken the upper trend line of the down channel. The resistance zone was previously tested On Sept 2 and higher prices were rejected. Price is trading above the 20 and 50 SMA. I am looking for a move (at least) back to the moving averages and possible to the lows of the bull channel.
The downward momentum has slowed. Expect some correction.EURUSD (4H): The downward momentum has slowed as price runs into the 1.10000 level. I expect some correction. This zone is also the 161.8% extension of a previous down swing. Price is trading slightly below the down channel lows and is overextended with significant separation from the 50 SMA. The USD as been strong and I expect selling pressure at previous swing highs as far as up to the 61.8% retracement.
EURUSD Daily broke and close below the 1.10000 levelEURUSD Daily broke and close below the 1.10000 level. Price is trading towards the low of the down channel. The 1.10000 zone has acted as support in the past and could do so again.
SPX500 (4H) is coiling into a wedge patternSPX500 (4H) is coiling into a wedge pattern the centre of the consolidation is around the 216x zone. Both the 20 and the 50 SMA have flattened. The price action seems rather balanced. It should however be noted that the last dominant move was a swing low. There is immediate resistance at the 217x zone and immediate support at the 214x zone.
SPX500 (Daily) trading sideways and below the 50 SMASPX500 (Daily) has been trading sideways and below the 50 SMA. Price halted it advance without tagging 2200, then fell sharply to the 38.2% retracement of the previous up swing. The uptrend that started February 11 2016 is still in tact since price has not broken any significant swing low. Currently most of the price action is contained within the bearish candle created September 9 2011.
USOIL (4H) trading above $50. Will it hold?USOIL (4H) Oil is trading slightly above $50. Will more buyers step in and push prices higher or is it time for the bulls to take profits? There is significant separation between the current price and the 50 SMA. Are the bulls willing to keep buying at these prices or will they prefer a retracement to the moving average before taking prices higher? "The trend is your friend until it bends" It is always tempting to short prices as it test resistance zones. However if I am a bear, I would prefer to wait for confirmation and have prices holding pullbacks (at last) below the 20 SMA before considering short opportunities.
USOIL (Daily) Oil trading into resistance.USOIL (Daily) still in an uptrend starting from the lows created on February 11 2016. Price is however at resistance at $50 as well as the 61.8% retracement of the previous down swing. This zone is also a previous swing high. The last two times the market approached this zone it turned lower. Will the market turn lower again? or will price trades to the top of the bull channel? Will the bulls take profit here? A strong break of this level could indicate a continuation of the upward momentum. However watch out for false breaks. Both bulls and bears should carefully watch the price action and wait for conformation.
GBPUSD (4H) price bounces off the 161.8% extensionOn the GBPUSD (4H) chart, price is trading close to the low of the bear channel after bouncing off the 161.8% (at 1.2690x) extension of a prior swing low. Since we are currently trading below the range lows, I would expect this area to act as resistance. The market is over extended and there is significant separation between price and the 50 SMA as well as the 20 SMA. Expect some ratracement back to those moving averages was well as the top of the bear channel.
GBPUSD (Daily) price broke the low of the trading rangeOn the GBPUSD (Daily) chart, price has broken through the low of a trading range. It is also at the low of a down channel. Until there is a clear breakout from the range, I am looking for range rotation. Hence I am expecting price to return to the top of the range. Note that since the sharp move down (resulting from the Brexit vote) the 38.2% retracement has not been tested. This is close to the top of the range.
