I need objective information to help me interpret the chart
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With this decline, the BW(100) indicator was created at 104556.23.
Accordingly, the high boundary section is the 101947.24-104556.23 section.
Unfortunately, since it fell below 101947.24, the key is whether it can receive support near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator, i.e., around 98892.0, and rise.
If it falls below the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator and shows resistance, it is highly likely to turn into a short-term downtrend.
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The settings for the StochRSI indicator I use are 14, 7, 3, 3 (RSI, Stoch, K, D).
The source value is ohlc4.
If you set it as above, it will show a movement similar to the StochRSI indicator on my chart.
When the StochRSI indicator
- falls in the overbought zone,
- is located near the 50 point,
- rises in the oversold zone,
volatility is likely to occur.
However, you should check whether there is support near the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts and think of a corresponding response plan.
Therefore, by checking the relationship between the movement of the StochRSI indicator and the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts, you can choose the point where you can make a trade.
If you can calculate these selection points, I think it is highly likely that you will be able to create a trading strategy that suits your investment style.
It is good to predict future movements with trends or waves, but if you can calculate the point where you can actually make a trade, I think you can create a better trading strategy.
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I wrote a long article, but
1. Will the StochRSI indicator fall in the overbought zone?
2. Will it receive support near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator?
3. Will it rise to the high boundary section?
You should focus on the three things above.
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The method of drawing support and resistance points is drawn according to the arrangement of candles.
This method can actually include subjective thoughts, so it requires skill.
Therefore, if possible, I recommend that you sign up as a paid member of TradingView and share my charts with me, and use the HA-High, HA-Low, BW(100), BW(0), OBV, +100, -100 indicators that appear on 1M, 1W, and 1D charts by the HA-MS_BW+v2 indicator as horizontal lines and use them as support and resistance points.
Then, even if others look at the charts, they will be easier to understand, and it will be easier to share opinions on trading strategies according to each other's investment styles.
By utilizing indicators that anyone can use in this way, you will be able to view the charts objectively.
If you trade based on what others tell you, you will likely not be able to respond quickly when sudden volatility occurs.
Therefore, when creating a trading strategy, you should roughly think about how to respond to all cases, both when it goes up and when it goes down.
That's why it's best to draw support and resistance points or other reference materials on your chart if possible and prepare countermeasures accordingly.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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Oscillators
combined guide for both the **Regime Classifier** and **kNN Here’s the combined guide for both the **Regime Classifier** and **kNN (k-Nearest Neighbors)** indicators with emojis, tailored for your TradingView chart description:
---
### **🔑 Individual Lesson Steps**
#### **Lesson 1: What is a Regime Classifier?**
👽 **Defining Market Regimes**
- A **market regime** refers to distinct market conditions based on price behavior and volatility.
- **Types of Market Regimes:**
- 🚀 **Advance** (Uptrend)
- 📉 **Decline** (Downtrend)
- 🔄 **Accumulation** (Consolidation)
- ⬆️⬇️ **Distribution** (Topping/Bottoming Patterns)
👾 **Why it Matters:**
- Identifying market regimes helps traders tailor their strategies, manage risk, and make more accurate decisions.
---
#### **Lesson 2: Anatomy of the Regime Classifier Indicator**
👽 **Core Components**
- **Median Filtering:** Smooths out price data to capture significant trends.
- **Clustering Model:** Classifies price trends and volatility into distinct regimes.
- **Volatility Analysis:** Analyzes price volatility with rolling windows to detect high and low volatility phases.
👾 **Advanced Features:**
- **Dynamic Cycle Oscillator (DCO):** Tracks price momentum and cyclic behavior.
- **Regime Visualization:** Color-coded display of market conditions to make trends and patterns clearer.
---
#### **Lesson 3: Configuring the Regime Classifier Indicator**
👽 **Customization Settings**
- **Filter Window Size:** Adjusts sensitivity for detecting trends.
- **ATR Lookback Period:** Determines how far back the volatility is calculated.
- **Clustering Window & Refit Interval:** Fine-tunes how the indicator adapts to new market conditions.
- **Dynamic Cycle Oscillator Settings:** Tailors lookback periods and smoothing factors.
👾 **Why It’s Useful:**
- Customizing these settings helps traders optimize the indicator for different trading styles (e.g., scalping, swing trading, long-term investing).
---
#### **Lesson 4: Using the Indicator for Regime-Based Trading Strategies**
👽 **Adapt Strategies Based on Regimes**
- **Advance Regime:** Focus on long positions and trend-following strategies.
- **Decline Regime:** Prioritize short positions or hedging strategies.
- **Accumulation Regime:** Watch for breakout opportunities.
- **Distribution Regime:** Look for trend reversals or fading trends.
👾 **Using the Dynamic Cycle Oscillator for Confirmation:**
- 🌡️ **Overbought/Oversold Conditions:** Identify potential reversals.
- 🔄 **Trend Momentum:** Confirm if the trend is gaining or losing strength.
---
#### **Lesson 5: Combining Volatility and Price Trends for High-Confidence Trades**
👽 **Interpreting Volatility Clusters**
- 🔥 **High Volatility:** Indicates caution, risk management, or hedging opportunities.
- 🌿 **Low Volatility:** Suggests consolidation or trend continuation.
👾 **How Volatility Clusters Interact with Price Trends:**
- Combine trend direction with volatility analysis to refine trade entries and exits for more precise decisions.
---
#### **Lesson 6: Backtesting and Live Application**
👽 **Validate Using Historical Data**
- Guide traders on **backtesting** strategies using historical data to see how the indicator would have performed.
👾 **Real-Time Application:**
- Implement the Regime Classifier in **live markets** to monitor ongoing price conditions and gain actionable insights.
---
### **🔑 kNN (k-Nearest Neighbors) Indicator Lesson Steps**
#### **Lesson 1: What is kNN?**
👽 **Defining kNN**
- **k-Nearest Neighbors** is a machine learning algorithm that makes predictions based on the proximity of data points.
- It identifies the nearest neighbors of a data point and classifies it according to the majority class of those neighbors.
👾 **Why it Matters:**
- **kNN** helps traders forecast price movement, trends, and potential reversals by analyzing historical data.
---
#### **Lesson 2: Anatomy of the kNN Indicator**
👽 **Core Components**
- **Training Data:** Historical price data used to identify the neighbors of a point.
- **Distance Metric:** Determines the closeness of data points (e.g., Euclidean distance).
- **k Parameter:** The number of nearest neighbors to consider for predictions.
👾 **Advanced Features:**
- **Distance Calculation:** Helps assess how similar current price movement is to historical patterns.
- **Prediction:** The majority of the nearest neighbors determines the expected price movement (up or down).
---
#### **Lesson 3: Configuring the kNN Indicator**
👽 **Customization Settings**
- **k (Number of Neighbors):** Adjust to control how many historical data points influence predictions.
- **Distance Metric:** Choose from Euclidean, Manhattan, or other metrics based on data characteristics.
- **Window Size:** Defines how many data points (e.g., time periods) are used for analysis.
👾 **Why It’s Useful:**
- Tuning these settings allows traders to adjust the sensitivity and precision of predictions, optimizing for various trading styles.
---
#### **Lesson 4: Using the kNN Indicator for Predictive Trading Strategies**
👽 **Predicting Price Movements**
- Use **kNN** to identify trend directions and price reversals based on historical proximity.
- **Uptrend Prediction:** Identify moments where the nearest neighbors suggest a continuation of the trend.
- **Downtrend Prediction:** Signal when the majority of neighbors point toward price decline.
👾 **Using Predictions to Enhance Trade Entries:**
- Use **kNN** signals in conjunction with **Regime Classifier** regimes to validate and enhance entry and exit points.
---
#### **Lesson 5: Combining kNN Predictions with Regime Classifier for Precision**
👽 **Refining Trade Confidence**
- Cross-reference **kNN predictions** (uptrend/downtrend) with **Regime Classifier’s** regime identification for higher precision trades.
- **Example:** If **kNN** predicts an uptrend and the **Regime Classifier** signals an **Advance** regime, you can confidently go long.
---
#### **Lesson 6: Backtesting and Live Application**
👽 **Validate Predictions with Historical Data**
- Backtest using **kNN** on past price data to measure accuracy in predicting trends and reversals.
- **Real-Time Application:** Implement **kNN** in live markets alongside **Regime Classifier** for comprehensive decision-making.
---
### **🔄 Combined Lessons for Advanced Mastery**
#### **Combo 1: Regime Identification and kNN Predictions for Strategy Optimization**
💡 **Objective:** Combine market regime identification with kNN predictions to refine trading strategies.
- Merge **Lesson 1 (Understanding Regimes)** and **Lesson 1 (What is kNN?)**.
- **Practical Exercise:** Use both indicators to identify regimes and predict price trends in live charts.
---
#### **Combo 2: Customization, Practical Usage, and Enhanced Predictions**
💡 **Objective:** Equip traders to fine-tune both indicators for their unique strategies.
- Merge **Lesson 3 (Settings Configuration for Regime Classifier)** and **Lesson 3 (kNN Indicator Configuration)**.
- Walkthrough: Customize settings and combine both indicators to predict price trends and adjust strategies accordingly.
---
#### **Combo 3: Comprehensive Trading Strategy with Regime Classifier and kNN**
💡 **Objective:** Build a full-fledged trading system using both indicators for market regime analysis and predictive signals.
- Combine **all lessons** for a complete, systematic trading approach:
- 🔍 **Identify market regimes**
- 🔄 **Use kNN predictions** to assess potential price movements
- 📈 **Combine with Dynamic Cycle Oscillator** for entry/exit timing
- 💥 **Execute trades** with a comprehensive strategy
---
These lessons and combos provide traders with the essential tools to master both the **Regime Classifier** and **k-Nearest Neighbors** indicators, from understanding the fundamentals to implementing advanced strategies and refining predictions for more accurate market analysis.
ADA/USDT Long Trade Plan: Leveraging Dow Theory and Fibonacci ReThe trade plan for ADA/USDT leverages Dow Theory and Fibonacci retracement principles, aiming to enter at the 0.382 retracement level (1.0593) within a confirmed uptrend. The stop loss is placed below the last lower low at 0.8783 to minimize risk in case of a trend reversal. The take profit target is calculated at 1.2403, offering a 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio. This setup aligns with the market's higher highs and higher lows structure, ensuring an entry at a key support level while maintaining strict risk management and a favorable trade outlook.
ETHENA - Identifying a trend shift using RSI, MACD, EMA and DivFirst post of 2025 to start the new year Journaling and using Basic tools Offered by Tradingview. The most Common Used by traders are RSI MACD and EMA's.
I am going use these indicators with descriptors of what I came to understand after reading the "About script" and applying them to my trade Ideas to see If I can correctly Identify Strength and Weakness in markets.
I have plotted out on the charts what the use cases are for these tools.
RSI, MACD and EMA's are momentum Indicators, They are not used to identify where a reversal will happen but over a period of time where you can see trend start to shift or continue trending based on the Information they provide.
Trade Idea Week 20 Jan 2025: EURUSDBullish Thesis
Key Drivers:
The EUR/USD remains in a long-term bearish trend in the 4-hour timeframe, characterised by lower highs and lower lows. However, recent price action shows signs of consolidation around a critical support zone near 1.0250–1.0280, presenting opportunities for both upward retracements and continued downward moves.
Indicators like the MACD suggest weakening bearish momentum, while the ADX shows a weak trend environment, implying traders would focus on key levels for directional triggers.
Eurozone Economic Data:
Improved PMI readings (forecasted above 50 for services) may signal resilience in the Eurozone economy, potentially boosting EUR sentiment.
ECB President Lagarde's Speech: Any hints of future hawkish monetary policy could support the EUR.
Entry: 1.0280
Target TP1: 1.0320
Extended Target: 1.0340 (Weak High from 4-hour chart)
Stop Loss: Below 1.0250 to protect against a breakdown of support.
Risk/Reward: 1:2
Bearish Thesis
Key Drivers:
The long-term bearish trend remains dominant, making the 1.0340–1.0380 resistance zone a strong candidate for selling opportunities. Price action in this area aligns with the broader trend, and bearish rejections are likely to signal further downside.
Entry: Between 1.0320–1.0340
Target TP1: 1.0280 (short-term support)
Extended Target: 1.0250 (next demand zone on higher timeframe)
Stop Loss: Below Above 1.0360 to guard against a breakout above the strong resistance.
Risk/Reward: 1:2
Key Events:
Tuesday (Jan 21):
German ZEW Sentiment Data: Monitor the release for unexpected positive or negative surprises.
UK Employment Data: Indirect EUR movements may occur due to the EUR/GBP pair correlation.
Wednesday
(Jan 22):
ECB President Lagarde's speech. Hawkish tones could favor the bull thesis, while dovish comments could strengthen the bear thesis.
Trade Ideas are for informational purposes only.
Iron Ore: Momentum Builds, 200DMA in SightIron ore futures have seen a decent rally over the past fortnight, rebounding from below $100 a tonne on strong volumes to take out downtrend resistance dating back to early December before going on with the move.
The price is now testing a zone that includes minor horizontal resistance at $102.25 and downtrend established in October when Chinese markets were rollicking along in peak stimulus mode. With momentum indicators firmly with the bulls, traders should be alert for a potential extension of the rally.
If we see the price push above this zone, longs could be established with a stop beneath for protection. The 200-day moving average looms as a potential target with $107.30 the next after that.
Take note of how poorly the price has traded above the 200-day moving average over recent months. As such, if the price action falters around this level again, those seeking the higher target may want to reconsider the merits of the trade.
Good luck!
DS
$SPY January 16, 2025AMEX:SPY January 16, 2025
15 minutes.
Yesterday gap open was held.
For the last rise from 578.97 to 592.96 AMEX:SPY retraced to 589.5 before achieving the target 594 for yesterday's move.
598.5 represents 23.6% fall for the last rise and took support at 61.8% retracement for the fall 597.74 to 575.35.
Hence it is important that AMEX:SPY holds 589 levels for upward movement.
For the extension 575 to585 to 578.35, 594 was achieved being 1.618 levels for the first rise.
At the moment we have 200 averages above 50 and 100 in 15 minutes, hence I expect AMEX:SPY to consolidate between 590 to 593 levels today for a further up movement tomorrow.
Also, we have an oscillator divergence from 592.9 to 593.9 levels
No trade day for me today.
EUR/USD Trade Plan Summary - Reversal
Entry: Place a Buy Stop at 1.04355, confirming a breakout from the falling wedge.
Stop Loss: Set at 1.01702, below the recent lower low to limit risk.
Take Profit: Target TP1 at 1.06993 and optionally TP2 at 1.09253 for extended gains.
Confirmation: Wait for a daily candle close above the wedge before activating the trade.
Risk Management: Risk 1-2% of capital and adjust position size based on the entry-to-SL distance.
Bitcoin futures eye breakout from falling wedgeBitcoin futures are threatening to break out of the falling wedge established in early December, testing resistance during Asian trade.
With RSI (14) through its downtrend and MACD set to cross over from below imminently, momentum is swinging in favour of the bulls, bolster the case for upside.
If we see a clean downtrend break, longs could be established with a tight stop beneath for protection. Depending on the risk-reward sought, potential targets include the highs set in early January or record high of $108,945.
If the price is unable to break and hold above the downtrend, it would lessen the appeal of initiating longs.
Good luck!
DS
Is HCLTECH done?
HCLTECH has had a phenomenal run from ₹12.9 in September 2001 to ₹2,012.2 earlier this month, a growth of ~15,500% in 279 months, averaging 40% annually.
But is it all about to end? 5/35 MACD, which I love to use to validate my EW count is showing a massive divergence on the weekly charts combined with a big high-volume engulfing bar concurrently taking shape. I can also count clear 5 waves on the monthly charts.
Based on my calculations, I can see two targets on the downside: 1418 and 970 .
Do share your opinions below.
Best!
EURGPB Wave Analysis 15 January 2025
- EURGPB reversed from multi-month resistance level 0.8445
- Likely to fall to support level 0.8380
EURGPB currency pair recently reversed down from the strong multi-month resistance level 0.8445, which has been steadily reversing the price from the start of September, as can be seen below.
The resistance level 0.8445 was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the nearby 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downtrend from the start of August.
Given the overbought daily Stochastic, EURGPB currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.8380.
EURUSD Wave Analysis 15 January 2025
- EURUSD reversed from key support level 1.0225
- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.0425
EURUSD currency pair recently reversed up with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star (with the daily Hammer in its middle) from the key support level 1.0225, which stopped the previous impulse wave i at the end of December.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.0225 started the active short-term correction iv, which belongs to the downward impulse wave 3 from last month.
Given the bullish divergence on the daily RSI indicator, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.0425, which stopped the previous waves ii and (ii).
HBARUSDT
The purple support zone within the price range of $0.232 has been tested multiple times so far. If this support area is breached, we expect the bearish trend to continue towards lower levels.
Upon closer examination, we observe that the resistance zone at $0.3484 has not yet been tested, and the momentum of the bearish trend has been stronger. Once the purple support zone is consumed, the bearish scenario will be further confirmed.
What’s your opinion?
GBPAUD BUTTERFLY PATTERN Harmonic Pattern Trading Strategy:
1. Combine patterns with 2-3 confirmations (e.g., MA, BB, RSI, Stoch) for increased accuracy.
2. Implement proper risk management.
3. Limit exposure to 3% of capital per trade.
4. Exercise caution: Not every Harmonic Pattern presents a good trading opportunity.
5. Conduct thorough diligence and analysis before trading.
Disciplined approach = Enhanced edge.