Nifty Trend directionNifty 22828 - Is trading in rounding bottom pattern in daily chart. Immediate support at 22430 and Support 2 at 22030. Resistance at 23440 and 23856
Oscillators
Monday bounce points to extension of bullish move
Silver bounced off minor support at $31.84 in early Asian trade on Monday, indicating the level may be useful for traders eyeing a potential bullish setup.
Longs could be established above the level with a tight stop beneath to protect against reversal. Overhead, former uptrend support currently intersects with the key 50-day moving average around $32.50, making that a potential initial target. A break above would bring $32.73 into play, a level that acted as both support and resistance during March.
The momentum picture has become more palatable for bulls, with RSI (14) trending higher and back near neutral. MACD remains in negative territory and is yet to cross the signal, though it’s starting to curl higher, suggesting bearish momentum is ebbing.
If silver reverses and breaks $31.84, the setup would be invalidated, opening the door to trades targeting a partial retracement of the recent bounce.
Good luck!
DS
RSI 101: Revealing the Special Characteristics of RSIWhy does RSI have support and resistance levels at 40 and 60?
Why does divergence happen between RSI and price?
What is RSI momentum?
All the characteristics of RSI (that I know) will be explained here.
Formula and Meaning
If you are using TradingView, you probably already know what RSI is and what "overbought" and "oversold" mean. So, I won’t repeat it here. Instead, I’ll dive deeper into the true nature of RSI, giving you a different perspective.
You can skip the mathematical formula of RSI, it’s already discussed everywhere online. Just remember this ratio table:
Here’s how I explain the table:
At RSI = 50, the average gain equals the average loss (I'll call this the buy/sell ratio). This is a balanced point. Buyers and sellers are equally strong.
At RSI ~ 60 (66.66), the buy/sell ratio = 2/1. Buyers are twice as strong as sellers.
At RSI ~ 40 (33.33), the buy/sell ratio = 1/2. Sellers are twice as strong as buyers.
At RSI = 80, the buy/sell ratio = 4/1. Buyers are four times stronger.
At RSI = 20, the buy/sell ratio = 1/4. Sellers are four times stronger.
The formula shows that when RSI reaches 80 or 20, the buyer or seller is extremely strong — about four times stronger — confirming a clear trend.
At these levels, some Trading strategies suggest placing a Sell or Buy based on the overbought/oversold idea.
But for me, that’s not the best way. The right approach is: when a trend is clearly formed, we should follow it.
I'll explain why right below.
Look at this chart showing RSI changes with the buy/sell ratio:
When RSI > 50:
When RSI < 50:
You can see that the higher RSI goes, the slower it climbs, but the high buy/sell ratio makes price move up faster.
Similarly, when RSI goes lower, it drops slower but price drops faster.
That’s why at overbought (RSI=80) or oversold (RSI=20) areas, you need to be careful. Even a small RSI moving can lead to big price changes, easily hitting your stop loss.
On the other hand, if you follow the trend and wait for RSI to pull back, you will trade safer and more profitably.
RSI Key Levels
Here are some special RSI levels I personally find useful when observing FX:XAUUSD :
(These levels are relative. They might vary with different timeframes or trading pairs. Check historical data to find the right ones for you. On bigger timeframes like M15 or above, the accuracy is better.)
RSI = 20
When RSI hits 20, sellers dominate. This confirms a trend reversal to bearish.
RSI = 80
When RSI hits 80, buyers dominate. This confirms a trend reversal to bullish.
RSI = 40
This is a sensitive level. Sellers start gaining the upper hand (sell/buy = 2/1).
If buyers lose 40, they lose their advantage.
So RSI >= 40 is "buyer territory". In an uptrend, RSI usually stays above 40.
RSI = 40 acts as support in an uptrend.
RSI = 60
Same idea. RSI <= 60 is "seller territory".
RSI = 60 acts as resistance in a downtrend.
40 and 60 are considered the key levels of RSI.
Now you guys know why RSI has support/resistance around 40/60!
RSI Range
As you know, RSI moves between 0 and 100.
Since RSI >= 40 is buyer territory, we can see the relationship between price and RSI:
When RSI stays above 40, price tends to move in an uptrend:
When RSI stays below 60, price tends to move in a downtrend:
When RSI stays between 40 and 60, buyers and sellers are balanced, and price moves sideways in a box:
When RSI is moving, It creates a RSI Range.
Whenever the trend switches between the three states — uptrend, sideways, and downtrend — a Range Shift is formed.
At first, RSI moves in 40-60 range, price moves sideways. A strong price move pushes RSI to 80. Later, RSI stays above 50, helping price grow strongly. When momentum fades, RSI returns to 40-60 and price moves sideways again.
Note:
RSI reflects Dow Theory by showing the stages of accumulation, growth, and distribution.
And as you see, when RSI touches key levels, the trend often pulls it back.
RSI Momentum
Price momentum means how fast price changes.RSI momentum represents the change in the strength between buying and selling forces.
When RSI > 50:
If price falls, RSI shows high momentum — RSI drops fast but price drops slowly.
If price rises, RSI shows low momentum — RSI rises slowly but price rises fast.
For example, at first RSI is above 50.
Price drops from (a) to (b) by 44 units, RSI drops from (Ra) to (Rb) by 25 units.
Later, RSI drops from (Rb) to (Rc) (also 25 units) but price drops from (b) to (c) by 73 units.
When RSI < 50:
If price falls, RSI has low momentum — RSI drops slowly but price falls fast.
If price rises, RSI has high momentum — RSI rises fast but price rises slowly.
RSI and Price Divergence
Divergence happens when price and RSI move in opposite directions:
Price goes up but RSI goes down, or vice versa.
Why does divergence happen?
In a strong downtrend, price forms a bottom at point (1), and RSI drops to level (r1).
When a price pullback happens, price pushes up to a peak at point (2), and RSI also bounces back to level (r2).
Because the downtrend is strong, after completing the pullback (1-2), price continues to make a lower bottom at point (3).
At this point, remember the behavior of RSI momentum when RSI is below 50:
It takes a large price drop (from 2 to 3) to cause a small RSI drop (from r2 to r3).
Meanwhile, even a small price increase (from 1 to 2) causes a large RSI rise (from r1 to r2).
Since the distance (1-2) is smaller than (2-3), but the RSI move (r1-r2) is bigger than (r2-r3), divergence is created.
Divergence shows that the current trend is very strong, not a complete signal of a trend reversal.
(I might share with you how to spot a complete RSI reversal signal in future posts.)
As shown in the example above, after forming bottom (5) and creating a bullish divergence between (3-5) and (r3-r5), price still kept dropping sharply while RSI kept rising.
In these areas, if you keep trying to catch a reversal just based on divergence, you will likely need to DCA or cut your losses many times.
That’s why the most important thing in trading is always to follow the trend.
RSI Exhaustion
RSI Exhaustion happens when RSI keeps getting rejected by a resistance or support zone and can’t break through.
After a strong downtrend, RSI recovers but stalls around the 5x zone.
It tries many times but fails, showing buying power is weakening.
Then the downtrend continues:
Exhaustion near high or low RSI levels creates stronger divergences than exhaustion in the middle range:
Double or triple tops/bottoms on RSI (M or W shapes) basically indicate RSI exhaustion.
RSI Can Identify Trend Strength
In an uptrend:
If RSI pulls back to a higher level before going up again, the trend is stronger.
The pullback should not fall too deep (below 40).
Example:
First rally: RSI drops to 60 before rising again → strong rally (273 units).
Second rally: RSI drops to 50 before rising again → weaker rally (94 units).
Same idea for a downtrend:
If RSI pullbacks to 50 then drops again, the downtrend is stronger than if it pullbacks to 60.
RSI Support and Resistance
Besides 40-60 acting as support/resistance, RSI also reacts to old tops and bottoms it created.
Why does this happen?
RSI is calculated from closing prices.
On a higher timeframe, the candle close price is a high/low or support/resistance price on lower timeframes.
When RSI moves in a trend on a higher timeframe, it maintains a buy/sell ratio, forcing lower timeframe RSI to oscillate within a range.
Example:
On H4, RSI stays above 40 → uptrend.
It makes H1 RSI move between 30-80.
Sharp RSI tops/bottoms react even stronger because they show strong buying/selling forces.
Summary
When looking at the price chart, we can see that price can rise or fall freely without any defined boundaries.
However, RSI operates differently: it always moves within a fixed range from 0 to 100.
During its movement, RSI forms specific patterns that reflect the behavior of price.
Because RSI has a clear boundary, identifying its characteristics and rules becomes easier compared to analyzing pure price action.
By studying RSI patterns, we can make better assumptions and predict future price trends with higher accuracy.
I have shared with you the core characteristics of RSI, summarized as follows:
Besides overbought (80) and oversold (20), RSI respects 40 and 60.
40 is support level in an uptrend. 60 is resistance level in a downtrend.
In an uptrend, RSI stays above 40.
In a downtrend, RSI stays below 60.
An RSI Range-Shift leads to a trend change.
RSI Divergence shows strong trends.
Double or triple tops/bottoms show RSI exhaustion → potential reversals.
The higher the RSI level, the slower it moves, but the faster the price rises.
The lower the RSI level, the slower it moves, but the faster the price falls.
A strong uptrend can be identified when RSI moves within a higher range or shows continuous bearish divergences.
A strong downtrend can be identified when RSI moves within a lower range or shows continuous bullish divergences.
RSI reacts to its old tops and bottoms.
Sharper RSI peaks show stronger selling.
Sharper RSI bottoms show stronger buying.
In the next parts, I’ll show you how to apply these RSI's Characteristics to trend analysis, multi-timeframe analysis, and trading strategies, that you might have never seen before.
I trade purely with RSI. Follow me for deep dives into RSI-based technical analysis and discussions!
Bitcoin Dominance Update (1D)Bitcoin dominance is currently showing signs of weakness and appears to be losing momentum for another upward move.
If we see a breakdown below the 62% level, a sharp decline toward 57% is likely.
During this phase, it may feel like an altcoin season is approaching, but in reality, most altcoins will likely just be retracing previous losses rather than entering true price discovery.
Still, for those who buy the dips, it can present a profitable rally opportunity—especially in short to mid-term cycles.
— Thanks for reading.
Baidu Wave Analysis – 11 April 2025
- Baidu reversed from support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 90.00.
Baidu recently reversed from the support zone between the major long-term support level 78.60 (which has been reversing the price from the end of 2022) and the lower weekly Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support level 78.60 is likely to form the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer (strong buy signal for Baidu).
Given the strength of the support level 78.60 and the clear bullish divergence on the weekly Stochastic indicator, Baidu can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 90.00.
There is a good probability on the bullish side.There is a strong support zone holding on the weekly timeframe, and it's exactly from this level that a reversal signal has appeared on the four-hour chart, along with a structure shift and a candle close. Moreover, the RSI indicates a bullish divergence. Now, it's just the weekly trendline that needs to be broken—once that happens, nothing can stop ETH from turning bullish.
Is the Finnish Bank OmaSp about to collapse?The charts are suggesting caution. On the above 10-day chart:
1) Double top in price.
2) Regular bearish divergence.
The higher the timeframe you look the more ugly this divergence is.
Laterally I’m wondering if the small banking crisis that hit the US is now venturing to other parts of the world. OmaSp does not appear to be in isolation.
There were some tell-tell signs before the collapses of Silicon Valley and Signature Banks. (No one in Europe heard of those banks!) They were:
1) Strong bond market exposure.
AND
2) Same TA as above.
“OmaSp has been active in the bond market since 2013” says their website. Very true..
Until recently you could get the information on their Bond market exposure.. You click on the WebPage today and you get:
www.omasp.fi
“Unfortunately the webpage you were looking for can not be found”
Oh dear…
Ww
Type: Trade, short
Risk: <=3%
Timeframe: Candles closing at 19 and under.
10-day Silicon Valley Bank
before
after
10-day Signature Bank
before
after
Nasdaq 100 to 17000On the above 3-day chart price action has corrected 33% since late December. A number of reasons now exist to be bullish, including:
1) The ‘incredible buy’ signal has printed. Look left.
2) The buy signal is coming in at 81% probability. The previous were 75%, 72@, & 72% percent, respectively. Look at the strength of if a 75% recovery, what do you think a 81% will be like? This can only be the result of a massive short squeeze, in my opinion.
3) Price action has just printed a ‘double bottom’ (orange line) on past support / resistance - look left!
4) Most recently price action has broken out of a bullish falling wedge formation with back test confirmation, see below.
Is it possible price action falls further? For sure.
Is it probable? No.
Good luck!
Ww
A little closer
EURUSD Testing A 25-Year Long Rising Trendline From BelowAfter breaking a 22-year long trendline 3 years ago, and testing it from below a few times, EURUSD has come back up to test what is now a 25-year long trendline.
A reversal pattern below this line on the monthly chart will suggest a potential reversal, while a firm close above this line will suggest a continuation up.
The stochastic indicator is signaling a bearish divergence, but it's not a clear cut.
GOLD rising channellooks like Gold in 4h TF is playing inside a rising channel and just made a bearish divergence
USD/CAD bears eyeing deeper downside flushUSD/CAD bears will be eyeing a meaningful downside flush with the pair breaking and closing beneath the 200-day moving average on Thursday, hitting fresh year-to-date lows in the process.
The price now finds itself below 1.3947, the high set in August last year. The break may encourage others to join the bearish move, generating a setup where shorts could be established with a stop placed above the level for protection.
1.38115 screens as an initial target, with other minor levels such as 1.3748, 1.3700 and 1.3647 also in play. Momentum indicators favour retaining a bearish bias, with RSI (14) trending strongly lower but not yet oversold. MACD further bolsters the bearish signal.
If the price were to reverse back above the 200DMA, the overall bearish bias would be invalidated.
Good luck!
DS
Repeating Patterns in Ichimoku CloudsIn the chart, we can see three Bermuda formations on the Ichimoku cloud. Each time, the price touched this zone (RED LINE) and reversed from the top, a bullish trend began again.
Does History Repeat Itself? How Far Can the Nasdaq Fall?Let's examine the current 2025 correction on a logarithmic chart: the price movements show significant similarities to the February 2020 decline. At that time, the global crisis—then driven by COVID-19 panic—fundamentally influenced market movements, while now, trade uncertainties are generated by President Trump's aggressive tariff announcements.
The chart reveals that the Nasdaq is declining steeply, and technical levels play a decisive role: yesterday, the price bounced back from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. However, it is clear that supporting technical indicators—such as the break of the RSI convergence trend on the days triggering the decline—confirm the downward movement.
In the earlier 2020 decline, massive volume accompanied the initial weeks' movements, while this year's movement is characterized by steadily increasing volume. Nevertheless, the current volume peak falls short of the peak measured in the 2020 week (4.45 million vs. 6.8 million), indicating that the trend may continue with further declines.
Overall, technical analysis—the examination of logarithmic charts, the break of the RSI trend, and volume movements—suggests that the current correction may deepen further, and the Nasdaq's target price can be estimated between 14,500 and 15,000 points.
Observing a similar scenario in history, when global events triggered high volatility, it appears that market reactions now do not differ from past patterns. If the current negative trend continues, a further deepening of the correction is plausible, as the lag in market volume (4.45M vs. 6.8M) indicates that investors have not yet been able to offset the negative sentiment prevailing in the sector.
ONDO Falling Wedge + Bullish DivergenceBITGET:ONDOUSDT is compressing inside a falling wedge, now trading near key support. Signs of potential reversal are building.
🔹 Key Observations
• Pattern: Falling wedge (bullish bias)
• Support: Price is holding just above the ~$0.68–$0.75 demand zone
• Volume: Declining throughout the wedge – typical pre-breakout behavior
• RSI: Bullish divergence forming + compression under 50, often seen before breakouts
🔸 What to Watch
• Breakout trigger: Daily close above wedge resistance (orange trendline), ideally with volume
• Target zones: $1.30 to $1.60, then $1.90 to $2.10 (prior S/R levels)
• Invalidation: Breakdown below the green demand zone ($0.68)
⚠️ As always, confirmation matters – no breakout yet. But the setup is clean and worth watching closely.
BTC/USD – Bearish Correction Ahead? Eyes on $44K
After failing to hold above the $70K psychological level, Bitcoin is showing clear signs of weakening momentum. The recent price action has formed a lower high, and bearish divergence on the RSI is becoming more evident across multiple timeframes.
From a technical standpoint, BTC is currently testing key support around $66K. A clean break below this zone could trigger further downside movement. Based on Fibonacci retracement levels and prior consolidation zones, the next significant support lies around the $44K area.
This level aligns with the 0.618 retracement from the recent bull run and coincides with previous accumulation zones from early 2024. A retest of this level could provide a healthier base for the next bullish wave.
🚨 Watch for a potential drop toward $44,000 in the coming weeks if current support fails to hold.
Long NQ FuturesLooking for a 50% retracement back to roughly the 19300 level. Will likely be a bumpy ride up, with the first test of resistance at 18300 (minor wave A), back down to the bottom of the gap at 16900 (minor wave B), and then back up to 19300 (minor wave C).
Expecting to reverse short once 19300 is reached, but will evaluate further if and when target is reached.
Bullish setup for Bitcoin for coming 6 monthsIf we look at pure technicals. Basic technicals, things couldn't be more bullish. The sentiment is at extreme fear, but look at this beautiful chart.
Maybe we chop here for a bit, but once the MACD flips in momentum weakness, then I suspect massive upwards move for Bitcoin.
Apple Wave Analysis – 9 April 2025
- Apple reversed from the support zone
- Likely to rise to the resistance level 180.00
Apple earlier reversed up from the support zone surrounding the long-term support level 170.00 (which has been reversing the price since the end of 2023) – standing very far below the lower weekly Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 170.00 stopped the previous weekly downward impulse wave 3 from February.
Given the strength of the support level 170.00 and the oversold weekly Stochastic, Apple can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 180.00.
HBARUSDT Approaching Key Weekly Zone with Potential Reversal SetBINANCE:HBARUSDT HBARUSDT is approaching a weak support zone, which shows a higher probability of breaking due to insufficient strength. Below this lies a weekly strong Fair Value Gap (FVG), which is a critical level for potential price reversal and continuation of the bullish trend.
If the price enters this weekly FVG zone, it could signal a high-probability buying opportunity for traders anticipating a rebound. On the other hand, failure to hold this zone could lead to further downside.
Keep an eye on price action near the key levels for confirmation of potential entries. Always ensure to have clear stop-loss levels and realistic profit targets in place.
Best regards,
Happy trading!
USD/JPY: Long Setup as Regulators Move to Calm MarketsWe're seeing financial regulators schedule emergency meetings to calm markets just as USD/JPY approaches levels where it has repeatedly bounced over the past week, presenting a potential long setup for those willing to go against the prevailing grain.
Longs could be established ahead of 144.50 with a tight stop just below for protection, targeting a return to Tuesday’s low of 146.00 or minor resistance at 148.15.
Momentum indicators remain firmly bearish, favouring a downside bias. But in headline-driven markets like this, the signal may not carry its usual weight.
Good luck!
DS
LTC 1W Support Level ..Bullish Case (If Trendline Holds):
• Possible upside targets:
• Resistance at $100
• Medium-term: $160
• Long-term potential: $280+, if the crypto market enters a strong bullish phase.
⸻
Bearish Case (If Trendline Breaks):
• If it breaks below this trendline with volume, downside risk could open to:
• $36
• $22
• or even retest the lows around $13, depending on market sentiment.
⸻
Long-Term Spot Strategy:
• High-probability entry zone for long-term holders.
• Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) around this zone can be a solid plan.
• Stop-loss placement (for risk-managed traders) can be considered slightly below the trendline, e.g., $60 or $50, depending on your risk tolerance.
$$$ BTCUSD MACRO-BULLISH $$$ 1W CHART $$$BITFINEX:BTCUSD 1W Chart
There are many reasons to look at this weekly chart and see that there's absolutely no reason to be bearish on Bitcoin yet.
Holding strong r/s flip support.
Holding regression trend.
Holding parabolic trend.
Stoch RSI at the bottom.
Weekly bullish divergence.
Assuming this plays out in a way that's similar to the last local bottom, the current target is around $134k-$135k.
It would take a lot to invalidate all of these bullish indicators, but if that does somehow happen, with a CLOSE of the weekly candle that invalidated these, then It's pretty much definitely over for a loooong time.
NFA blah blah blah..
