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Potential Short Opportunity for BTC/USD at $61,000Overview: In this analysis, I present a short trade setup for BTC/USD with an entry point around $61,000. This idea is based on the confluence of volume profile levels and Fibonacci retracement zones. Volume Profile Analysis: The volume profile indicates significant trading activity around the $61,000 level, which suggests it as a strong resistance zone. This implies that there may be considerable selling pressure once the price reaches this level. Fibonacci Retracement: Applying the Fibonacci retracement from the swing high to the recent swing low, the 0.618 retracement level aligns closely with the $61,000 mark. This confluence adds strength to the resistance at this level, providing a high-probability short entry. RSI and ADX Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently showing bearish divergence, indicating a potential reversal or pullback. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at a high level, suggesting a strong trend which could soon see a correction. Trade Setup: Entry : Short at $61,000 Stop Loss : Above the $62,500 level to allow some room for potential volatility. Target : First target at $56,000 (next significant volume node), second target at $50,000 (support zone and 1.618 Fibonacci extension). Conclusion: This trade setup leverages technical analysis tools to identify a high-probability short entry point. As always, ensure proper risk management and adjust the trade parameters based on market conditions.
Short
by wittawatkhondee55
2
USDCAD 1D Analysis: Anticipating a Breakout📅 Let's dive into today's analysis. We'll be focusing on the USDCAD pair in the 1D time frame. ⌛️ Long-term Range Box In the 1D time frame, we observe a large, long-term range box that spans 664 days. This box has experienced a complete High Wave Cycle (HWC) range, which is confirmed by the flat SMA99, indicating minimal slope and nearly flat movement over a long period. ♟ Key Levels Range Box Bottom: 1.31434 Range Box Top: 1.38725 Breaking either of these lines will likely initiate a new trend for the HWC. Medium Wave Cycle (MWC) Support: 1.35973 MWC Resistance: 1.37805 🪤 Momentum Indicators As discussed in yesterday’s analysis, momentum oscillators like RSI are less effective in range-bound markets. In this case, although the RSI broke the 43.14 support, the market did not gain bearish momentum because of the ranging condition. This exemplifies why RSI should not be heavily relied upon in such scenarios. 📉 Bearish Scenario If a candle closes below the 1.35973 area, we can expect the price to move towards the bottom of the range box at 1.31434. This support is crucial and could push the price back to the top of the range. 📈 Bullish Scenario Conversely, if the price breaks above 1.37805, it may move towards the top of the box at 1.38725. However, this move is less likely due to the weakness observed in the green candles, indicating weaker buyer strength. 🔍 Candle Analysis Examining the candles shows that reaching the top of the range box takes significant time, with small green candles. Conversely, reaching the bottom of the box from the top happens quickly with strong red candles. Given the weak green candles in the latest upward move that didn't even reach the top of the box, the likelihood of a downward breakout is higher. 🎯 Target Levels In case of a downward breakout, switching to the weekly time frame helps identify important levels: First Target: 1.30183 (0.5 Fibonacci level) Second Target: 1.27624 Third Target: 1.22926 (a very significant support for this pair) 📝 Conclusion The USDCAD pair is currently trading within a long-term range, showing weak buyer momentum and stronger bearish tendencies. A breakout from this range, particularly to the downside, seems more probable given the current market conditions. Traders should watch key levels closely for confirmation and be ready to act accordingly once a breakout occurs. 🧠💼 Always remember that trading futures involves inherent risks, and improper risk management can lead to margin calls. Stick to your capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, aiming for an initial risk-to-reward ratio of 2. 🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please like and share this analysis. Feel free to leave your comments or suggest a pair you'd like me to analyze next.
Short
by itsparham96
1
Historically Warm Weather to Support Natural Gas PricesAfter the second quarter relief rally and the five-month peak, Natural Gas registered a four-week decline. This has shifted bias to the downside again, creating scope for further losses towards 1.940. However, a look at the daily chart shows that NGAS tries to react at the lower border of the Ichimoku Cloud. Furthermore, a Golden Cross (EMA50 crossing above the EMA200) has been formed, which is often viewed as a precursor of sustained growth. This technical formation compliments the favorable fundamentals, as demand is set to increase this year, while key drillers lower their activity. Although the world shifts to renewables, Natural Gas is seen a bridge fuel facilitating this transition. Furthermore, it is heavily used in electricity generation, being the top source in the US and No2 globally. June was the thirteenth straight month of record high temperatures according to Copernicus, which can provide another tailwind for energy demand during the summer months. This in turn can increase Natural gas consumption and support prices. As a result, NGAS can reclaim the EMA200 that would give control to the bulls and the ability to push for the June peak (3.164). The upside contains multiple technical roadblocks though and there are risks to the upbeat supply-demand dynamics. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:NGASLong
by FXCM
1
Bitcoin ALL-TIME-HIGH is STILL COMING: Here's WhyA hint... the RSI. The RSI is one of those reliable old-timers, especially useful in higher timeframes to determine longer period price action, such as near term and long term. Together with Elliot Wave Theory, I'm going to present to you an argument for why Bitcoin is STILL BULLISH and what my strategy/expectation is for the coming weeks. I'll also share key metrics to watch and do regular updates should the conditions mentioned in the video be met. Although I am short term bearish, I remain longer term bullish, making it really impossible to label this post as solely "short" or "long". Cheers to the Top10%'ers 🥂 __________________________ BINANCE:BTCUSDT
by CryptoCheck-
1
Polkastarter (POLS)On the above 3-day chart price action has corrected over 90% since the sell signal in October 2021 (not shown). Now is a good opportunity to go long. Why? 1) A strong buy signal prints. (not shown). 2) Price action resistance breakout. 3) Strong positive divergence between price action and multiple oscillators. This divergence occurs over a 90 day period. The idea is a mirror copy of the LCX idea 48hrs ago. Is it possible price action could fall further? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Type: trade Risk: <=6% of portfolio Timeframe: Don’t know. Return: Don’t know.
PLong
by without_worries
2
BarnBridge (BOND) - Bullish divergence** warning - tiny market cap ** On the above 3-day chart price action has corrected 90% since June of last year. Astonishingly sellers have returned price action back to support. Is now a good time to go long? 1) Oscillators prints bullish divergence with price action. As a matter of fact more oscillators print positive divergence than the previous time price action moved from 2 dollars to 20 dollars in less than a month. 2) Price action has returned to support. Astonishing, did every buyer of the last move sell back at a lower price? 3) Some other reasons.. Is it possible price action falls further? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Type: Trade Risk: <= 1% Timeframe: act now Return: As before, around 600-700%
BLong
by without_worries
74
MDEX (MDX)On the above daily chart price action has corrected 70%. A number of reasons now exist to be long, including: 1) You know why.. 2) Multiple oscillators print positive divergence over an extended time frame. Look left. 3) RSI resistance breakouts on both USD and BTC pairs. 4) The last time those conditions printed a significant move followed in the days ahead. Is it possible price action falls further? Sure. Is it probable? no. Ww Type: trade Risk: <=6% Timeframe: Now, don’t hang around. Return: 250%
MLong
by without_worries
18
The current conditions entail significant risk for placing orderStrategy: Neutral Risk for placing orders: Significant High Summary Long-term and short-term trends: Prices are moving near the lower band of the trend channels, indicating a possible reversal towards the main trend. Fibonacci Retracement: Critical support levels. The currency pair may move downward to the level of 1.34322 without changing the main trend. Fibonacci Expansion: Resistance levels that determine the upward movement at points 1.3763, 1.3860, and 1.4000. Technical Indicators: The use of moving averages and the MACD shows a high risk for trades. The technical indicators do not align with the main trend, emphasizing caution in decision-making. Trend Determination The prevailing main trend on the exchange rate price chart is upward. The secondary short-term trend currently on the exchange rate price chart is downward. Within the main upward trend channel, exchange rate prices are moving downward within the lower band. In the secondary downward trend channel, exchange rate prices are moving downward within the lower band. The movement of the price near the lower band of the secondary trend channel could indicate an imminent reversal of the short-term trend towards the main trend direction. The lower band of the trend channel is considered a support level. However, this scenario requires further investigation and is currently a mere hypothesis. The price movement within the created channels carries medium risk for placing trades. Support-Resistance Levels – Fibonacci Fibonacci Retracement: Using the Fibonacci Retracement tool will help identify critical support levels and points within which there is increased risk for placing trades. The Fibonacci Retracement tool will be applied to the upward course of the exchange rate. This way, the levels to which the exchange rate can move downward without being considered a trend reversal can be determined. Specifically, according to the current conditions in the exchange rate, this point is around 1.34322. The possibility of breaking this support point and continuing the price movement below 1.34322 requires great caution as it could signal a trend reversal and significant losses. From the study of the Fibonacci sequence in this currency pair, two important levels emerge, which are necessary to mention. Placing trades at any point within these two levels carries increased risk due to the accumulation of pressure. This range is defined by the levels of 1.34322 and 1.35831. The risk decreases above the 1.36764 limit for the possibility of placing a buy order. Fibonacci Expansion: The purpose of using the Fibonacci Expansion tool is to identify resistance levels. Consequently, these levels can be used to estimate the range of the possible upward movement. The current movement of the exchange rate is considered significant and quite clear. This significantly helps in applying the Fibonacci Expansion tool and identifying the resistance levels for this upward movement. The resistance levels that appear to exist and their distance from the current price, which is considered noteworthy, are as follows: 1.3763 – 133 pips 1.3860 – 230 pips 1.4000 – 370 pips The application of a second Fibonacci Expansion was deemed necessary, initially because the movement was quite strong and secondly, the identification of intermediate levels will better define the price movement range. Technical Indicator Analysis To smooth prices, determine trend dynamics, and strength, a system of three moving averages will be used. To evaluate trend momentum and identify divergences which may indicate trend reversal, the MACD will be used. Moving Averages: The exchange rate prices are currently below the moving averages. The distance of the current price from the moving averages is not significant. Visualizing the results of the moving averages shows that the price trend, at the present time, does not evolve according to the main trend. MACD: The MACD is moving negatively in a downward trajectory, and its momentum is not satisfactory. Visualizing the MACD results does not show divergences between the MACD trajectory and the price trend. The existence of divergences could mean a potential reversal of the current price trend. The MACD results show that the price trend, at the present time, does not evolve in conjunction with the main trend. The moving averages and MACD indicate that the possibility of placing a trade, at the current moment according to market conditions, carries high risk. This is concluded from the fact that the technical indicators, on the one hand, do not provide results that are in harmony with the prevailing price trend. On the other hand, they do not adequately describe the current market conditions.
by Forex_Analytica
Has EUR/USD Bottomed-Out???Here I have EUR/USD on the 4Hr Chart! Now we see Price on EU has made a sort of "Rounded Bottom" making its official LOW @ 1.06660 Now with Price struggling with the Resistance Zone @ ( 1.08441 - 1.08266 ) it is beginning to form what looks to be a Potential CUP & HANDLE PATTERN!! This pattern after the completion of the "Bowl" is typically followed by the formation of the "Handle". This will be considered a HIGHER LOW which should be followed by Bullish momentum to the Top of the Cup (Resistance Zone) again, then to BREAK and possibly continue HIGHER!! -The RSI is showing that price is Over-Bought which tells me we could see price needing to make a decline! -Strengthening the Bullish Bias on this idea is also backed by the fact price is now trading ABOVE the 200 EMA! *Before we can confirm this is a Cup & Handle Pattern, we must see Price make a retracement from this High to the ( 1.07751 - 1.07647 ) Range for potential BUY positions! **If Price decides to Break Below our Fib Entry Zone, The potential Cup and Handle Pattern will be INVALIDATED!!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
GBP/USD stages bullish break, March peak in sight?In the absence of an unexpected reacceleration in US inflationary pressures or unlikely hawkish pivot from Jerome Powell when he appears before lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, whether the US dollar can reverse the bearish move seen last week is questionable. With Fed rate cut expectations growing as US data continues to soften, the path of least resistance looks lower in the near-term for the DXY. Having broken above 1.2800 and closed there Friday, and successfully back tested the level again in early Asian trade today following the French election results, GBP/USD is one pair that may be able to capitalise on the buck’s bearish reversal in the days ahead. Buying near these levels targeting the May high of 1.2894 is one potential setup, allowing for a stop loss order to be placed at 1.2790 for protection. You’re risking around 17 pips to make 87 pips. Resistance may be encountered around 1.2860, the high struck in June. Should GBP/USD fail to clear that level, consider taking profits on the trade. While GBP/USD has not had a great track record above 1.2800, this bullish break comes with the USD on the backfoot and follows a successful break of downtrend resistance that thwarted other bullish moves earlier in the year. With it out of the way and momentum indicators like MACD and RSI providing bullish signals, upside looks easier than downside in the near-term. DS
Long
by FOREXcom
Shiba Inu SHIBA lot of folks asking about Shiba Inu at the moment. At this time on the above 2-day chart price action has broken from resistance that began in October 2021. The question most want answered: Will Shiba (Bro..) pump 1000% like in 2021 from late September until late October? No idea. Anything is possible. Is it probable? No. Why do I say that? Let’s look left. Back 2021 there were certain conditions that printed specially on the 2-day chart. Those conditions were: 1) The BTC pair of the token 2) A strong buy signal 3) Strong bullish divergence. Huge. 4) Stochastic RSI was 50+ at the time of the above conditions. Do all those conditions exist today? No. Do those conditions exist on other tokens today? Yes. Yes indeed. As a matter of fact there are 16 tokens currently listed on Binance printing those exact conditions. Two of them have already ‘popped’, GALA and SOL. What are the other 14? Get this post to 500 likes and I’ll share them below! Ww Remember: Type: trade Risk: <=6% of portfolio per position. Timeframe: don’t know Return: don't know
by without_worries
50
Centrica - bullish divergence*investment opportunity* A 90% correction since 2014 and following oversold condition there now exists an excellent opportunity to buy this stock. The 10-day chart above confirms a regular bullish divergence between price action and the oscillators + higher low in price action. This is the start of a trend reversal. Price action is now in the bullish half of the Bollinger band as the mouth is constricting, which suggests a big move is coming. On the fundamentals Centrica engages in the provision of energy and supply services. There is no end of ‘bad news’ stories on the business. Pay no attention. The only news you need is the headlines in the charts, and they look amazing. A buy above 42 is good. 1st target 115 2-month chart - broken RSI resistance following oversold condition: 3-month chart - bullish morning star + confirmation
LSE:CNALong
by without_worries
20