Oscillators
Continuing Correction Arista Net. ANETGoing off the technical picture, there is a general alignment from at least 5 different perspectives. The indicators I use look at the market from may different ways, deriving data from volumes, volatility, stochastics, momentum and simple stats like sigma deviations on the previous. Many cases do not offer a discernible Elliott count or a harmonic, but these are very useful when they are discernible.
NIO Inc May Start a New Trend to the Upside. NIOI really like the divergences on the new low on more than one occasion and an encompassing divergence between the first low and the very last one. This is a common set piece in these type of complex corrections, where the Elliott count proves to be problematic. I am confident of a high chance of a profitable long, because almost simultaneously there is a flip on BB%PCT, VZO and Stoch/RSI, plus a MIDAS line course. I used Fibonacci clusters to paint some stationary goals.
AMC Bouncing Back Up Offf Support. AMCThis appears to be a A Wave of a new zigzag that sent us to low of lows at 3.00 . Now well and truly back out of thee OBOS territory. Generally speaking, A waves do not produce momentum divergences, and this appears to be the case here as well. AB trendline, along with MIDAS has been crossed, BB%PCT crossed zero line a few candles ago and we are bullish otherwise technically.
USD/CAD Slips—Fading Trade Fears, CPI in FocusUSD/CAD is trading heavy ahead of Canada’s inflation report, weighed down by softer US economic data and fading sticker shock from US trade policy headlines. With Canadian data impressing at rates not seen since mid-2024 and January’s steep reversal from 22-year highs increasingly resembling a cyclical top, the key question now is whether this marks the start of a more significant unwind of earlier USD/CAD gains.
The price broke through multiple support levels last week after failing above the 50-day moving average, taking out 1.4270 and 1.4195 before retesting the latter from below over the past two sessions. Momentum indicators like RSI (14) and MACD continue to generate bearish signals, reinforcing the near-term bias being lower.
Beyond 1.4195, downside levels include 1.4090, the December double bottom at 1.3932, and the 200-day moving average. On the upside, 1.4270 has acted as a cap for much of the past fortnight, alongside minor resistance at 1.4372. That zone could prove tough to crack this week without a major escalation in US trade tensions or an ice-cold Canadian inflation print.
On Tuesday’s CPI report, the data will be skewed by a temporary GST holiday, potentially distorting the signal. That raises doubts about whether it will have enough weight to disrupt the prevailing USD/CAD trend.
Good luck!
DS
$SPY February 17, 2025AMEX:SPY February 17, 2025
15 Minutes
AMEX:SPY struggling around 610 levels.
Made ahigh 610.99. But oscillator divergence.
Also, we have a Hl formed at 610.75.
On Monday i expect a retracement to 606-608 levels.
Thus if AMEX:SPY is able to hold 606 levels then for the extension 598.52 to 607.49 to 605 my target of 612 + is possible.
But I expect a retracement first due to divergence.,
Can we enhance the most popular Indicator on TradingView?I describe my implementation of the TTM Squeeze indicator, first coded by Lazybear and that became the most popular indicator on TradingView.
There's gotta be a reason for that to be the most popular, right? I wanted to find out and make it much easier to navigate as well as adding to it with my own touch.
Hope you enjoy it.
BATMAN Formation Gold has appread to be down to 2788 USDThis chart provides a 4-hour timeframe analysis of the Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) pair, indicating several technical aspects and current market conditions.
Price Action and Trend Analysis:
Current Trend: The chart shows a recent bearish movement as indicated by the sharp red candle that breaks below the previous consolidation area and moving average lines. This could suggest a potential reversal or pullback in an otherwise bullish context.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance is potentially around $2,907 and $2,900, highlighted by the MA Ribbon lines.
Immediate support is near the $2,850 mark, as shown by the lower green zones and moving averages.
Technical Indicators:
Moving Average (MA) Ribbon:
The price has fallen below the MA Ribbon, suggesting a potential shift in momentum from bullish to bearish in the short term. Watch for these averages as dynamic resistance levels on potential pullbacks.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD line is below the signal line and moving into negative territory, indicating increased bearish momentum. The expanding histogram in the negative region further supports this view.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is near 41, which is below the midpoint of 50, suggesting bearish momentum. It is not yet in the oversold region (below 30), which indicates that there may still be room for further downside.
Volume:
There appears to be a notable volume spike associated with the recent price drop, which can be seen as validating the bearish move.
Market Sentiment and Potential Strategy:
Short-Term Bearish Signal: The break below key moving averages and the recent bearish candle supported by increased volume suggest that bears are currently in control. Traders might consider looking for short opportunities on pullbacks to resistance levels.
Watch for Potential Reversal: Keep an eye on the RSI and MACD for any signs of divergence or flattening that may suggest weakening bearish momentum. If the price stabilizes or rebounds at the $2,850 support, it could indicate a possible reversal or retracement back towards the moving averages.
Risk Management:
Ensure proper risk management strategies are in place, considering stop-loss orders above the recent swing high or around the MA Ribbon resistance levels. Adjust positions according to real-time market feedback and changes in technical indicators.
USD/CHF Weekly AnalysisThe market continues to see USD/CHF as overpriced above the 0.9200 zone.
For the first time this year, we see price printing a weekly close below 0.9052 which was support over the latter part of January 2025.
More importantly, we have just seen a weekly close below the 'big number' 0.9000 and may see further downside.
In addition, the stochastic has now dropped out of the weekly 'overbought' area.
Look for pullbacks and sell setups on your time frame of choice if you agree with analysis.
Betting Trend End for Reddit. RDDTThese are often hard to pick and as a pivot or fade take, it is inherently more risky. The Stop is tight. Never the less Fibonacci cluster of 5 and 2 to 5 show some high probability areas of take profits. In practice we do not use stationary stops or targets, dynamic systems have proven to be more useful.
Gap Down on Soundhound AI. SOUNThere is a sizeable gap that crosses the low of A. We are probably looking at another Zigzag with a fairly shallow correction on A, which is discernibly fairly standard ABCDE. In our experience any gap almost never get corrected pronto, so we can expect more downward momentum on this stock.
SofiTech Rally Not Over Yet. SOFIThe Elliott Wave count is hard on this one. In my experience if your count tell you that you are done with a trend bullish or bearish, then you are probably not. Unfortunately, often enough trend completion is only confirmed much, much later. So, that leaves us assuming that we are still then continuing with the trend. Technical indicators are supportive of this notion and price action trigger is seen with MIDAS line cross.
Zigzag on Coinbase Global. COINText book example of an Elliott zigzag. 3 or 5 wave move, followed by ABCDE retraction to 0.618, fibtime B Wave over 1.0 and now price action confirmed by MIDAS line cross. MIDAS line cross for confirmation, we found, is superior to neckline/trendline cross for confirmation. To play the devil's advocate, this may be a more complex B wave and we might observe more floundering for some time.
Adidas Moving with Momentum. ADIConverging Elliott triangle and three soldiers on price action. MIDAS line cross plus supportive, upgoing vWAP/US combo is reassuring. BB%PCT flip present, plus simultaneous, recent signal throw off by VZO/EshlersStochRSI combo. All of this paints a high likelihood of continued motion to the upside. We may find resistance at the upper triangle trendlines, or establish it as a support and keep moving further up from there.
Trend Continuation on Deere & Co. DEWhat is most striking about this picture is the sudden change in price action - this may be a sign of continuation of trend and completion of XABC harmonic pattern. Technicals on VZO, Stoch RSI are quite suggestive. BB%PCT quickly flipped back to bullish. The bullish engulfing candle crossed vWAP, US and MIDAS lines simultaneously. Good luck out there and manage your risk.
Stryker Fails to Strike Higher. SYKWe may be looking at a lagging diagonal of a much larger pattern here that has confirmed its completion about a day and a half ago. If this is true then we are due to a correction. Technicals sure seem to support this coming from momentum, volume, volatility, stochastic angles.
SOL emerging head & shoulder providing opportunitiesBYBIT:SOLUSDT has an emerging H&S structure that is providing opportunities described below, which can be utilised based on risk appetite and preference for a swing trade or investment.
Note: The overall chart structure at the moment is highly complex and pattern failure risks, such as that experienced with BYBIT:XRPUSDT remains very high.
Scenario
An H&S structure has emerged since 23 Dec 2024. Neckline support has been confirmed 3 times around: 11 Jan, 07 Feb and 12 Feb. The price is still close to the neckline providing opportunity for entry into trades and/or investment.
DCA entry into a longer term investment - recommended approach
Allocate a percentage of your portfolio's available fund to this as an asset to hold, decide upon how many months or weeks you would like to DCA into the total position (I recommend no less that 3 months and no more than 6) and begin DCA. This approach will safeguard against mistiming the start of the DCA now before the beginning of a bearish cycle, finally ending at an as yet unknown lower support level (of 4 potential candidate price levels stated further down the text below).
The case for beginning the investment approach now
The project remains solid and has established itself as a competitor to ETH. Furthermore, it is the layer 1 of choice for memecoins and has had more new projects use it that ETH recently. Additionally, overall positive market sentiment remains as do utterance (although no formal new policies of note) of the Trump administration and financial institutions towards crypto. Finally, the large gyrations in price recently are making it more difficult to judge appropriate SL levels thereby making trading of any kind less attractive at the moment.
The case against beginning the investment approach now
The future of the project, like most projects is still unknown (crypto is the most volatile and riskiest of assets for a reason!). Although the industry is maturing, it is possible a newer project can come and usurp the place of SOL. There are further support levels (130, 90, 55, 20) that can provide better DCA entry levels, and as market sentiment can change on an utterance of Musk or Trump, patience for a better entry point caused by further bearish moves might be wiser, particularly as on the weekly chart, SOL appears to be printing it's 2nd consecutive doji - implying market indecisiveness and no clear indication that the bulls are about to become incharge again. SOL has also double topped (mid Nov 24 and mid Jan 25), near the ATH (250), indicating either upcoming bearish sentiment or another uncertain attempt at breaking the ATH.
Swing trade
Entry: 200
TP:280 - near the absolute top of the head
SL: 160 - past the dragonfly candle of 13 Jan (this candle has the risk of indicating a new support leval and all traders must be wary of the 160-150 level as that was the support level in mid Oct 24 Additionally, 170 is also near the 200 EMA and crypto daily price gyrations are sometimes very large; therefore a daily low of a dragonfly and a EMA has the potential of being a support level that should be accounted for when setting a SL )
R/R: 1:2
The case for the swing trade
The rate of change indicated is trending upwards. The neckline has proven to be a support level and has been validated 3 times.
The against a swing trade
Other technical indicators like the RSI (middling with little upwards trend) and MACD (likewise) do not provide strong positive support for the trade thesis. Having found support at the 200 EMA and broken out of the downward trend since 20 Jan, there is a possibility that the price will just range between the 50 EMA and 200 EMA (approx. 210 and 180) unless there is further external, fundamental cause for upwards momentum. Previous momentum was driven largely by the optimistic market sentiment for crypto following on from Trump's election win. Finally, a R:R of 1:2 is generally not considered worthy of such a speculative trade.
Note: There is very little justification for a margin trade at the moment - the dragonfly candle on 03 Feb carries too much risk and invalidates a margin trade theses' risk/reward ratios. Margin trading this pair is best left to when a pattern emerges that is not part of a structure that includes the 03 Feb candlestick.
Gold Wave Analysis – 14 February 2025
- Gold reversed from resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 2860.00
Gold today reversed down the resistance zone between the key resistance level 2940.00 (which formed daily Doji earlier this month), the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from January and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone will most likely form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing – if the price closes today near the current levels.
Given that both daily Stochastic and RSI indicators are high in the overbought areas, Gold can be expected to fall to the next support level 2860.00.
S&P internals and momentum show waekness These both divergences show short term weakness in the S&P 500
This does not mean that there are opportunities out there, european markets are showing strength
Even some S&P sectors still have good relative strength: AMEX:XSW AMEX:XLY AMEX:XLC
But commodities are even better, just see AMEX:DBA making new 52-week highs
META run almost finished? Just a little fun and brainstorming with higher time frame charts. Utilizing RSI, patterns, and time cycles.
Lots of similarities between now and the 2020-2021 bull run. Not to mention a lot of good data suggesting we are close to a recession at best. (Weak housing data/stocks, yield curve uninversion)
What are your thoughts?
$SPY February 14, 2025AMEX:SPY February 14, 2025
15 Minutes.
As expected, once box was broken yesterday AMEX:SPY continued to make upward movement.
For the rise 598.52 to 607.49 to 605 61.8% extension was nearly done. Once 611 is crossed we can expect some resistance around 612-614 levels.
611-612 will be a good number to short as 4SPY in 15 minutes is getting away from 200 and 100 moving averages.
If uptrend continue today, then near close short around 612 +-1 will be good for Monday SL 614.5.
At the moment there is slight oscillator divergence in 15 minutes so need some more uptrend to short.
So, for the day for the last rise from 605 to 609.94 holding 606-607 is important for 610-612 as target.
Below 606 at the moment target is 603-604 levels.
JUPUSDT Swing Long IdeaJupiter is the second largest DEX on Solana and its price has been ranging for almost 1 year.
If all of crypto is getting ready to bounce JUP looks primed to breakout of the range,
RSI is crossing above the RSI MA and midpoint,
MFI is crossing above the midpoint,
JUP has outperformed TOTAL according to MA Based relative performance,
We recently saw the largest ever volume and volume MA.
All of this makes me think JUP wants to breakout from this range soon, hopefully TOTAL and BTC will allow that to happen.