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OTE

4hr BTC Nice bounce off the bottomI haven't posted much on Bitcoin as much of late as I have been put to sleep waiting for my OTE long zone bids to be filled. It has been an arduous wait but as price has moved slowly lower, the wisdom of patients has been so far accurate. Having said that, Bitcoin has enjoyed a rather nice bounce off the 419.40 level for going on the past 100 hours. So much so we are fast approaching a few significant resistance levels off the higher time frames and some aggressive short term bullish price targets. The bulls are expecting the current ab=cd harmonic pattern to play out (point D currently is 467.55) . That level is interesting because it does line up with a 38.2 Fib from the top so it seems very realistic. On the way to that level the market will have to overcome the 4hr - 200 sma (458) and a previous peak (463.53) so I certainly could see some volatility from current levels. BoT longs are working from the 445 area (25% of anticipated price objective) and stops are now at break even (BoT's trading rules since 50% of anticipated target move has occurred) but sadly I am still working my 'stink bids' down below. Considering momentum's 'toppy' look to it, I would be more then happy to exit (that long signal from 445) at break even should the market fail from current levels. My hunch is we will run into resistance and we will roll over and test these recent lows. From exactly where is of course tough to say but my hunch again is that the 38.2 level (off the top) is just too much of a magnet not to get hit. once we roll over,. do we break those lows is another question all together. Do I get my fills below $400, even more questionable considering where we are on the Weeklies.....shucks..... Since this is a V'' bottom, I am going to let them work and see if we can't get a real push into the OTE long zone to finish off this 4hr correction. Cheers all and I hope my simple analysis is of benefit... If my charts help you, or you use my indicators... please consider a BTC donation to allow me to continue my work : 1EBttA56cWsgtsZn83VGiNT8si7inZV5Z5 & follow me on Twitter @CRInvestor
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CRInvestor
2
Long term US Treasuries - A buy, for now...As we fast approach the typical seasonal top for the North American economy it shouldn't surprise us to see the anti-equity-market proxy (bonds) start to look more attractive. While I am not suggesting a trade (low reward to risk ratio on setup prevents me from considering the idea) , I do respect the fact that we may see a nice rally from current levels. Three justifiable reasons suggest to me price wants to revisit the low 140 area in the not too distant future. 1. Inverted Head and shoulders price pattern target (outlined on chart). 2. Optimal Short Trade Entry (OTE) zone currently about 144 to 148 . 3. Gaps near 143 & 145 need to be filled. Put it all together and I can comfortably understand a bond market rally - but as previously mentioned, because reward is about equal to risk I simply can not justify taking a trade.... Cheers all and I hope my simple analysis is of benefit... If my charts help you, or you use my indicators... please consider a BTC donation to allow me to continue my work : 1EBttA56cWsgtsZn83VGiNT8si7inZV5Z5 & follow me on Twitter @CRInvestor
ULong
by CRInvestor
3
1hr BTC Finex - the long slow grind back to the OTE long zoneAfter taking a pause from posting trading ideas on BTC (because I am either in BTC or cash and have been sitting in cash for a while now) I thought I would take some time today to review the 1 hour BTC chart and where it might be suggesting price wants to go over the near term. First off, you will notice several 'M' tops on the chart today. That alone suggests to me the bears are in control not the bulls. Couple that with the fact that the latest rally could not even get back up into the OTE short zone (rally peak was 518 and 61.8 or bottom of zone was 519) and I see more evidence that the bears are in control. Willy did get a little 'stupid overbought' there on that rally so it isn't too surprising to see Willy work his back back down into the oversold zone once again. While that may be reason for the bulls to start paying attention, we have neither a bottom in the raw momentum (MACD Histogram), a bottom in volume (OBV) or a bottom in price, Put it all together and I am still looking for lower prices ahead not higher. It do see the OTE long zone (off this entire rally from Mid April) currently sits between 431 and 456 and that shall be my target zone over the coming sessions. Should the indicators support long ideas once we get down into that range I may consider getting back in on the long side of BTC - until then....cash is king.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CRInvestor
3
1hr BTCE - Well defined 38.2 Fib fail off full moon madnessThe parabolic price spike into the full moon caught me (and I would assume many others) completely off guard. The fact that there was little to no follow through supports the notion of an anomaly and the market is going through the natural process of correcting for that event. Indeed, the 1 hour chart continues to work its way lower after a well defined top/fail at the 38.2% fib (CRI's '1st stop' target). That area (near 472) appears to be a significant 'battle zone' and I wouldn't be surprised to see it tested again. Should it be recaptured, a rally back up into the Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) short zone is realistic. However, bearish harmonic patterns on the initial move through that level suggest either a test of the top of the OTE long zone (61.8%) and/or a tag of the sweet spot (ss) at 70.5% itself. Additionally, there is both the top of the old trend channel and a small uptrend line near the bottom of the OTE long zone (78.6%) so price action into this wide area shouldn't be too unexpected. I currently have orders working at those levels and now must sit patiently and wait for my fills. If my charts help you, or you use my indicators... please consider a BTC donation to allow me to continue my work : 1EBttA56cWsgtsZn83VGiNT8si7inZV5Z5 & follow me on Twitter @CRInvestor
B
by CRInvestor