Othersdominance
Alt Season Incoming There is more than 3 parameters that we're getting into the Alt Season. But we only need 3
OTHERS.D as you see made a positive divergence exactly on 0.618 level of long-term fibo and, Touched the up trend-line for first time and showed pump reaction .The only thing we need is to break the down trend-line .
ETH.D had made a rising wedge and its going to dump or getting into trading range .
BTC.D raised for a couple weeks and its getting to the 0.5 level of retracement fibo and it has potential to make negative divergence .
Bitcoin at critical support bandThe support band consists of two indicators: the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). While Bitcoin recently experienced a weekly close below the 20-week SMA, it has yet to breach the 21-week EMA.
Bitcoin's rally may fade as the year progresses, but the timing of a potential fall below the support band remains uncertain.
The lack of sufficient liquidity in the altcoin market further complicates matters; the issue with the liquidity of alts is that we see alts bleeding on their BTC pairs, this is an issue because a rally in BTC would actually wreck alts more in the mid-term because of the low amount of liquidity, the alts would underperform and when BTC will break down on the support band, we are likely to see a crushing dump in alts before the next halving
The mid-term TPI is currently bearish, so I expect bias to the downside in the coming weeks!
The dominance of alts is likely to keep falling, indicating alts will underperform BTC for a while
The Universal TPI is available below;)
Don't touch altcoins until you see this!Over the past few months, we have seen an increase in the dominance of altcoins in the cryptocurrency market. This dominance has risen from 9% to 12%, indicating a growing interest in altcoins among investors.
During this period, the Trend Probability Indicator (TPI) was bullish, suggesting that this trend was likely to continue. However, since March 7th, the TPI has been bearish on the dominance of altcoins. Three days ago, it briefly went neutral, but it is currently at a TPI value of -0.257, which is considered bearish for the dominance of alts for now:
For the long-term TPI we see the trend being much more weak for the dominance of alt-coins. The long-term TPI has a value of -0.7142.
It's quite likely that BTC and ETH will continue to outperform alts until we see more conviction and certainty in the market. This means you are currently taking on more risk for less returns by holding ALTS, wait for a proper signal from the performance of alts!
You can even compare a strong altcoin like SOL to ETH and see that SOL is heavily underperforming ETH:
When the TPI is red on for example the SOL/ETH chart we see that SOL is underperforming ETH in terms of risk adjusted returns and losses.
Down to 5.5 and Lower or Back to ATH at 19.4Scenario A:
- Confirmed Head/Shoulders top, successful re-test and then down to 5.5%
- Likely headed much lower after losing the lower trendline of a long-term rising wedge, which has also been successfully re-tested and has continued down
- Possible because of two confirmed patterns and re-tests.
Scenario B:
- Unconfirmed Falling Wedge, which if it breaks up from will target ATH at 19.4% and bring us back into the rising wedge on pending a 2nd re-test.
- Double-top and then true exit of the rising wedge before heading much lower
- Possible because this behavior would be similar to the behavior following its previous set of peaks in 2017-18.
Exploring Bitcoin and Altcoin DominanceIntroduction
The dynamic landscape of cryptocurrency trading is filled with a multitude of variables that traders need to comprehend to navigate the financial waters successfully. One such vital aspect of understanding is the relationship between Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) and Other Cryptocurrencies Dominance (OTHERS.D). This article aims to provide an in-depth insight into this relationship and its long-term trends.
Bitcoin Dominance: What is it?
Firstly, to understand the relationship between these two, we must grasp what Bitcoin dominance implies. Essentially, Bitcoin dominance illustrates the ratio of Bitcoin's total market capitalization relative to the aggregate market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market. Expressed as a percentage on a scale from 0 to 100, it signifies the proportion of Bitcoin's capitalization compared to the total market capitalization.
Other Cryptocurrencies Dominance (OTHERS.D)
Similarly, Other Cryptocurrencies Dominance (OTHERS.D) represents the total market capitalization of the top 125 altcoins, excluding Bitcoin and some other leading cryptocurrencies. It reflects how the altcoins are faring against the total market cap in the crypto market.
Correlation Between BTC.D and OTHERS.D
Now, the crucial question is, why should we care about these percentages? The significance of this relationship is revealed through the Correlation Coefficient indicator, which quantifies the degree to which these two indices move in relation to each other.
A Correlation Coefficient value of +1 indicates a strong positive correlation, signifying that both instruments tend to rise or fall simultaneously. Conversely, a correlation coefficient of -1 represents an inverse relationship, meaning when one instrument rises, the other falls. A coefficient of 0 suggests no apparent correlation, implying that the two instruments move independently of each other.
Historical data reveals that the correlation between BTC.D and OTHERS.D is often around -0.9. This suggests an inverse relationship where an increase in Bitcoin dominance typically corresponds to a decrease in altcoins dominance, and vice versa. This correlation is significant as it guides traders on whether to shift their focus towards Bitcoin or altcoins.
Long Term Trends
When we delve deeper into the long-term trend analysis of BTC.D and OTHERS.D, a broader picture begins to emerge. This broader view becomes more apparent when we visualize these trends, with Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) represented in orange and Others.D in red, which allows for a clear discernment of an inverse correlation trend.
Over time, Bitcoin dominance, as depicted by the orange trend, has tended to display a downward trajectory. This indicates that Bitcoin's proportion of the total market cap has been steadily diminishing. In stark contrast, Others.D, represented in red, has shown a long-term upward trend. This indicates that the dominance and capitalization of altcoins are gradually rising relative to the total market cap.
Conclusion
Understanding the symbiosis between Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) and Other Cryptocurrencies Dominance (OTHERS.D) is instrumental for navigating the cryptocurrency trading landscape effectively. A clear trend, observable over the long term, shows a steady decrease in Bitcoin dominance juxtaposed with a corresponding increase in altcoin dominance.
This evolution might be attributed to several factors. One of these could be the proliferation of new cryptocurrencies entering the market. Another factor could be the progressive advancement of blockchain technology, which is steadily pushing the envelope of modernization.
It is essential, therefore, to regularly analyze and monitor the BTC.D and OTHERS.D charts. Spotting a distinct trend in either direction could offer valuable insights for your investment strategy. Attempting to follow these trends can potentially provide advantageous trading opportunities.
The beauty of Bitcoin's design lies in its transparency. Nowhere else is the flow of capital as visible as in Bitcoin. This visibility lends a unique perspective, providing traders a strategic edge. By embracing this, you can bolster your understanding of these market dynamics, facilitating more informed and effective trading decisions in the fluctuating world of cryptocurrency.
Thank you for reading this article. I hope it has provided you with a useful insight into the relationship between Bitcoin Dominance and Other Cryptocurrencies Dominance, thereby enhancing your understanding of cryptocurrency trading. Your pursuit of knowledge in this ever-evolving field is commendable. Stay informed, stay ahead!
Best Regards,
Karim Subhieh
Others.d - May regain traction in the mid term.Looks like we're nearing the projected target for wave 2 of a bullish wave dating back to feb 2017. Should this come into fruition, we can see a potential alt coin reversal on the cards and therefore should allocate capital into alt coins for mid-longterm gains. In the short term, on bitcoin we see a potential wave B rally and then a wave C correction as wave A has recently completed, bottoming at 25.9k It is possible that when wave C for bitcoin completes, that altcoins start to gain dominance and increase in pricing as a lot of people have been shaken out their holdings and only true believers remain, which is usually the best time to buy.
Forecast for the Crypto MarketI wanted to give a quick update on the Long-term TPI for BTC, and how I see the altcoin market doing compared to BTC:
The TPI has had a relatively high value for a long time
I can't foresee the future, but I don't believe that external market factors will allow this to keep going, I do believe we will see a big scare before the next halving of BTC
BTC's strength compared to ETH
As of right now, ETH is bleeding on it's BTC pair. We have been relatively stable since October last year, but BTC has been the safer asset in terms of returns (both downwards and upwards).
How is the altcoin market doing?
I've mentioned in a previous video idea that I believe that alts won't be outperfoming BTC in the near future. The dominance of alts are still on the decline, and the TPI value (-0.71) is indicating that dominance of altcoins will go lower than now!
I've linked my previous ideas on these subjects, as always... Stay safe
Important change in the Crypto Market: Don't buy alts yet!Quick note:
I am slightly bullish, but I need to see more strength in the TPI. As of right now it's only 0.25 on BTC, where 0.2 is the threshold to go bullish.
I wouldn't swing long on a lot of trades with a lot of risk as of yet.
It is very likely we do go a bit higher, if we see shorts get liquidated:
Others Dominance up to 32% or down to 5%Others Dom has a confirmed Head/Shoulders with a bearish target of ~5%. However, it could make another attempt to get back above its neckline if we see a double bottom here. That double-bottom would get us back above the right shoulder, causing a failed HS targeting 32%.
Either way, change is coming.
A possibility about the final bear movement...Others.DOthers dominance graph has been working very well since 2019.
Red declining line has been confirmed 2 times (2021 summer+mid2022).
But this time, after the ftx issue, it seems to be broken down.
After a possible confirmation, it's likely to go down to the possible return point of 7.66%.
Additionally, it seems that we have a HS pattern formed (but not confirmed clearly yet) which has a final target of ~6.5%
If the confirmation formed, my game plan will be kind of like this.
ps: Just a humble idea of a possible movement.
Others.D OutlookIt is a possible long-term scenario for Altcoins. As we know, Crypto is made to enhance decentralization. Concerning the fact that when Bitcoin retraces, almost 99% of Altcoins follow it does not confirm its goals. Many of the Cryptos had completely different plans when Bitcoin started its winter. Unfortunately, some of them went bankrupt, some struggling, some unclear and some resilient still.
🔻BTC.D DOWN,🔻USDT.D DOWN & 💹OTHERS.D UP ,What will happen❓❕HEY traders, what's going on today ❓❕‼️😉
since previous analysis that I posted for OTHERS dominance ,some interesting events have happened in the crypto market .
🔻📉BTC.D has declined ~ -10% ( from 49%-43%)
🔻📉USDT.D has declined ~ -30% ( from 9.5%-6.5%)
💹📈OTHERS.D has raised ~ +20% ( from 11%-13.5% )
while the dominance of both BTC and tether decreased But others.d increased and at same time we saw that bitcoin and altcoins prices has raised recently , so What it means ?!
in my opinion it means that in the recent weeks while majority of trader expected a green market and increase for bitcoin and altcoins but they mostly put their liquidity to the altcoins market because might expected more growth for altcoins rather than btc when btc.d is down .
If you don't know what's OTHERS.D , Before going any further more you should know the OTHERS.D represent the percentage of total market capitalization of the top-125 cryptocurrencies, excluding BTC and some other top cryptocurrencies. You can see the list of excluded coins on the Total Market Capitalization Dominance chart on the cryptocurrency market page . The excluded coins are displayed along with the OTHERS market chart.
Although the relation between the BTC.D , bitcoin price , altcoin dominace and their prices is a little bit confusing for most of us , but these key point can help us to predict the market !
EXPs :
if BTC price increase and BTC .D increase too ====> Altcoins price decreases.
if BTC price decrease and BTC .D increase ====> Altcoins price Dump and decrease heavy. This is dump phase.
if BTC price go sideway(without up or down) and BTC .D increase ====>Altcoins price don't change and this is accumulation phase.
if BTC price increase and BTC .D decreases (or sideway ) ====> Altcoins price jump or may have a altseason.
if BTC price decrease and BTC .D decreases too ====> Altcoins prices go sideways.
if BTC price go sideway and BTC .D decreases ====> Altcoins prices increase
so now what I expect for crypto market and altcoins?!
As always because of more dominance of Bitcoin ,we start with btc and btc.d ( I also assume that USD.T continues its down trend ),
📈_ thus if btc.d maintains the current support zone and be able to increase by breaking of the descending trendline and then can reach the higher VG zone :
if at same time bitcoin price rises >> so in this case others.d loses the current pivot zone and altcoins price will decrease
if at same time bitcoin price decreases >> so in this case others.d loses the current pivot zone fall to lower support zone and altcoins price will dump
if at same time bitcoin price goes in a sideways >> so in this case others.d maintain the current level and altcoins price will continue an accumulation phase
📉_ But if BTC.D the loses current support and goes down to lower support or may ( continues sideway) :
if at the same time bitcoin price goes more up >> so in this case altcoin dominance can reach the higher resistance zone an forms a H&D pattern and altcoins price will jump
if at the same time bitcoin price goes down >> so in this case others.d then altcoins price will go in a sideway
if at the same time bitcoin price goes sideways >> so in this case then altcoins price will go up
but anyway take it mind according to the USDT.D chart and previous analysis for , the tether dominance may increases in the short-term and the the same time btc.d and others' lose more their current dominances again , so in this case we may have a temporary down before any rising (in the mid-term )!
✌️ Good luck with your trading and investing and remember: Trade smart…OR JUST DON’T TRADE!
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👉This analysis is my personal opinion ,not a financial advice ,so do your own research.
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Altcoin Season has startedThis is Others.D which illistrates Altcoins without Ethereum dominance in the market. This is the weekly candle chart.
Let's start from bottom of the chart.
1. The Stochastic RSI has been out of oversold since the 20th June 2022, it looks like it is curling back down which would gain BTC back some dominance.
2. PCT Rank Top Bottom is light coloured green stating that we are bottoming out and momentum turning back up.
3. The Money Flow Index has dropped below 20 tells me that the money coming in should start increasing.
4. I have put in the historical Linear Regression lines (in Green) 6-13th June 2022 price had bounced off the lower line.
All of this above looks to me a great time to start buying Alts. The Stochastic RSI is a concern, but overall we should be right to go.
BTC.D OutlookA few days ago, I made another analyse saying BTC.D will go down to 40%; but, that was in case if BTC had intended to go up from 30K. Today, BTC is falling and we can clearly see that BTC.D. can rise until 50% or more.
The green line is our long time resistance.
The blue line is our mid term trendline.
The pink line is our short term trendline.
Buy BTC or Altcoins when the market starts recovering?Observe the above 10D chart.
1) Four whole red candles printed outside the lower bollinger band. Never has that once happened in this chart. Remember, the majority of times candles print inside the bands and when they do outside, they sharply correct.
2) Counting wicks, the index has corrected almost 45% from its recent top and is currently testing a previous top (marked by the yellow line).
3) Most altcoins have depreciated 80-90% from their previous market tops.
4) The corresponding 10D BTC.D chart satisfies the exact opposite points (RSI is high, price above upper bollinger band). Also it prints a pattern close to a triple top)
On the 5D chart below, we can see that RSI hasn't been this low since 2016, when a 800% move followed.
In my humble and non-professional, non-investment-advice opinion, altcoins will bounce harder than BTC soon when the crypto markets starts rallying again.
BTC'D OutlookI still believe that BTC dominance will be strongly rejected from this 47% area as it did already a few times before, especially that Others.D paved its future floor at around 11.50% which is very critical for it and is the top of recent growths. BTC dominance target is the star at around 40%.