Is ALTseason Finally Back?ALTseason actually started already back in 2023, when we got a nice five-wave bullish impulse in the ALTcoin dominance chart with ticker OTHERS.D. It was first leg A of a three-wave A-B-C rally.
We have seen a slow down in the last couple of months along with the whole Crypto market and that's why most of the ALTcoins came lower than Bitcoin, but we can see a corrective (A)-(B)-(C) decline within wave B with the wedge pattern within wave (C) of B that can be coming to an end.
So if we are on the right path, then seems like new ALTseason may not be far away, especially if we consider that Bitcoin and the whole Crypto market are still bullish. However, to even think about the next ALTseason, we have to see ALTcoin dominance back above 10.55%, which is first bullish evidence for a higher degree wave C.
Othersdominance
Why we maybe about to see ALTS revived....A Surprising structure
This is the OTHERS.DOMINANCE chart on \ MONTHLY scale.
Altcoins Dominance — Index Chart - TradingView
Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Top 10 Dominance, %. OTHERS.D Crypto Market Capitalization. OTHERS.D
I have marked the Bitcoin Halvings and ATH also as a marker and we have a number of very interesting things to note.
Lets start at the beginning.
ALTS first came into being in 2011 with Namrecoin and Litecoin. This is how we manage to have the OTHERS.D before Ethereum was created in 2015. Many think ETH was first, it was not.
We shold pay attention to the Gashed horizontal line going across the chart. PA rose above this in early 2017 and has remained above it ever since. In fact, this line has acted as support 3 times previously and is currently acting as support to the PA Right now.
This cold lead to the ALT recovery we need right now.
BUT, also take note of the day Spans of A - B and Aa - Bb
Span A is from the BTC ATH to the next Low on the OTHERS.D PA, From that Low, see how it rose Through the BTC HALVING ( dotted yellow line) - This is span B.
See how it Dropped down to the line of support and then Rose and created an ALT Season
Now Look at Span Aa from the Nov 2021 BTC ATH. We have a VERY similar day count to when OTHERS.D returned to the line of sippport, where it once again, bounced up and begins the Span of Bb.
But this time, when BTC Halving came in, OTHERS.D PA has Dropped sharply, earlier than last time. This is very likely to be because of BTC.D and the Long Term Holding, Buying of Bitcoin for ETF's and the Sentiment.
So the real question now, is will OTHERS.D PA Bounce as previously or will support fail
And for that, we have to wait and see.
It is worth noting that ALTS is a massive market and while the Dominance maybe falling, we can still see some ALTS like Solana Race to the top with 1000% Gains.
This chart is a Long Term Gauge of where the marklet goes and it should also be nothed that Bitcoin has reached ATH while this PA also rises.
A disappointing #Altcoin season? Maybe! OTHERS.d/BTC.dMaking gains in #Crypto has gotten harder and harder with each passing cycle for the vast majority of participants.
That is an unquestionable truth that I see and hear from people.
#Bitcoin itself is in it's 4th Hype cycle... which is bearish
2013 Mt Gox ponzi cycle top/collapse
2017 Eth/ICO craze, CME futures. CNBC XRP shill top.
2021 Uniswap/DEFI innovation , Elon doge /Coinbase IPO top.
2024/5 Memecoins craze --- topping signals are already appearing Andrew Tate / Iggy Azalea at NYSE. A Trump Election Win could be the final nail in the coffin whilst ppl celebrate the news and January 2025 Inauguration may seal crypto's fate.
The left translated 4 year cycle is a definite possibility as made popular by #BobLoukas
We know that retail investors are rejecting High valued VC backed projects and rather take high risk gambles on #Memecoins for a chance to be early... this is not bullish behaviour obviously!
As only a tiny percentage of people can win at that game and often it is not YOU!
Once that speculative capital & energy is rinsed many people will be left holding a worthless bag of tokens.
#Leverage trading destroys many people's lives
And a digital store of value whilst has obviously it's merits is unlikely to flip #Gold in marketcap imho
It cannot compete with a 5000 year history of storing wealth for generation to generation.
I can bury Gold coins in my garden and dig them up in 50 years knowing full well that they will have value.
Would you do that with a trezor? Lol.
So what do we do ... try to take advantage of the next 6 months and rotate S coin profits into
#Stablecoins and maybe a small allocation to #PAXG #XAUT (buyer beware on those gold backed #RWA coins obviously)
This should buy you enough time, to let you assess the fallout of any top that may occur this Christmas/new year.
Remember many people and especially the Bitcoin community will be partying and celebrating the 15 year journey of a $100k plus BTC.
You must avoid being sucked into that hype and cash in a good chunk of your crypto portfolio IMO
This is just a scenario I give to you ... and not a prediction ofc.
We are trying to predict the future irrational behaviour of humans, an almost impossible task. But as the wall St cheat sheet demonstrates speculative bubbles, generally do repeat often enough for us to try and capture profits from them.
So we watch and wait, place our bets and see where the chips may fall, one foot in and one foot out is my general kind of viewpoint of how most people should be thinking at this stage of the cycle.
Altseason - are you seeing this?Others dominance may be wrapping up a right shoulder on he weekly. The right shoulder may take longer than the indicator has drawn, however so I've drawn my own next to it in white.
As confluence for this, the larger pattern began taking shape after a smaller one formed within its head.
The smaller inverted HS is already confirmed and is presently re-testing its neckline, pullbacks below failing so far. Its targets are 16% and then just slightly over 19% and just below ATH, should it hold after another test or pullback.
Targets for both:
The smaller HSi would confirm the larger one by reaching its TP 1 at 16%, and then holding above ~13.5% or so.
TP 1 as measured for the larger HSi on the non-log chart is 19.7%, or slightly above ATH.
Its logarithmic measured TP 1 is above ATH around 24.15%
Conclusion:
Altcoins may regain its prior ATH in market dominance, somewhere around 19.5%, and could approach 24-25%
POO Coins are up 1.5X vs #BTC since June. HOW HIGH CAN THEY GO?This chart is of the market cap of #Altcoins divided by the marketcap of #Bitcoin.
If this ratio is going UP
Sh@tcoins (to give them their colloqiual name)
are out performing the #1 #Crypto asset.
("there is NO 2nd best.. " M. Saylor)
Risk ON.
Aka Silly season.
If this ratio is going down.
Then S coins are underperforming BTC
Bear market... S coins getting wiped out.
.... Got it?
Good.
Throwing on a Fib extension
(please draw your own chart... I am not a Fibonnaci expert by any means)
We can speculate how high,
and how much they will outperform.
and the magnitude of gains left on the table
Take Your pick of the extension level.
Or retracement Level if you are a Bitcoin Maxi, and don't believe a new ATH will be made in this ratio...
Good Luck in your speculations.
Others.D v USDT.d --- Shitcoinz v Stablecoin ratio inv H&SPretty simple ratio to keep an eye.
Others is the crypto index minus the top 10
So our blessed Shitcoins
Pulled up this ratio today and what do you know
we have a inverse Head & shoulders that will help us for profit taking levels.
Best of Luck
ALTs to run hard into April / May is what I have been calling for.
So maybe we get to the linear target
.... Pause....
And then finish the job end of the year.
best of luck.
Repeating Patterns May Lead to a New ATH for Alt DominanceAlt dominance formed something that looks a lot like an HSi with a very small right shoulder, which broke above its neckline and successfully re-tested, confirming the pattern and targeting 16.6%.
See the white drawn pattern and its white dashed neckline on the chart.
The same area of breakout and re-test from the smaller white pattern is forming another similar small right shoulder on a larger HSi as drawn in blue, with its neckline as the blue dashed line.
Should the blue pattern be a repeat of the smaller white one, and breakout of its neckline as well (note that it should as long as the white pattern continues up towards its initial target), it will target 21.8% upon confirmation and any successful re-tests of its neckline.
More related ideas for BTC.D and OTHERS.D in the Related Ideas section below.
This would suggest the possibility for a new ATH for alt dominance. For confluence, note that the halfway point towards 21.8% nearly equals the initial target of the smaller white pattern at 16.6%. And, rising green volume into the move.
Others Dominance v Bitcoin dominance --- may not give a new ATH ... for the cycle
Bitcoin could be so strong
That even though the others index ( aka shitcoins ) still do well from here.
Maybe they don't make a new high for this ratio.
As this chart shows -- last cycle
all the coins outside the top 10
peaked at 1 : 2 bitcoin.d
essentially the others.d was around 20% of the entire total market
bitcoin was around 40%
Eth was around 22%
(stables and the remainder of the top 10. made up the rest)
These targets are definitely worth keeping an eye on!
We've Done This BeforeAlt dominance may be repeating its prior pattern, where it wicked up to it's ATH after a series of drops, and then dropped hard before making a new ATH.
I still question whether it will actually make a new ATH this time, but imagine it will at least revisit the area of previous ATH.
Related idea linked below - a falling wedge breakout that is targeting previous ATH
Alt Dominance about to BreakoutThere's a falling wedge with a failed breakdown on the 3 day chart. That failed breakdown highly increases the likelihood of a successful breakout. RSI has been diverging from price, and that divergence recently strengthened.
Bitcoin dominance recently bounced from the top of an expanding wedge and looks like it wants to head down, finally making its new ATL:
Could this be the time for alts to make strong gains against Bitcoin before the next halving run begins?
The same view as beforeDominance currencies will face a sharp and rapid decline in the coming period, and it will be the last to build a bottom on which to base the rise that follows for a long period.
Clarification: Currency Dominance is an indicator that shows the percentage of currencies’ acquisition of liquidity in the crypto market and indicates the rise or fall of currencies as a general indicator.
Please clarify that I am helping you with my point of view, which may be right or wrong, and see my previous analyzes of many currencies and forex in order to judge the owner of this analysis with a more accurate look
Good luck
Alt Dominance with Stablecoins Dom RemovedHere's a look at CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.D or Altcoin Dominance vs. itself, but without CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D and CRYPTOCAP:USDC.D
When removing the calculation of stablecoins dominance from the picture, the pattern looks less like a downtrend and more like a potential bottom that may soon reverse.
Most are not expecting this with the present rise of CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D , but this could occur should a metric ton of cash move out of stables and into Bitcoin and Alts.
Just a thought, please let me know what you think or how you might see things differently, and thank you for taking a moment to read through my own!
Note - the picture may look even more accurate if there was a way to track BUSD Dominance in relation to OTHERS.D
Just another,
-dudebruh
Alt Season Incoming There is more than 3 parameters that we're getting into the Alt Season. But we only need 3
OTHERS.D as you see made a positive divergence exactly on 0.618 level of long-term fibo and, Touched the up trend-line for first time and showed pump reaction .The only thing we need is to break the down trend-line .
ETH.D had made a rising wedge and its going to dump or getting into trading range .
BTC.D raised for a couple weeks and its getting to the 0.5 level of retracement fibo and it has potential to make negative divergence .
Bitcoin at critical support bandThe support band consists of two indicators: the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). While Bitcoin recently experienced a weekly close below the 20-week SMA, it has yet to breach the 21-week EMA.
Bitcoin's rally may fade as the year progresses, but the timing of a potential fall below the support band remains uncertain.
The lack of sufficient liquidity in the altcoin market further complicates matters; the issue with the liquidity of alts is that we see alts bleeding on their BTC pairs, this is an issue because a rally in BTC would actually wreck alts more in the mid-term because of the low amount of liquidity, the alts would underperform and when BTC will break down on the support band, we are likely to see a crushing dump in alts before the next halving
The mid-term TPI is currently bearish, so I expect bias to the downside in the coming weeks!
The dominance of alts is likely to keep falling, indicating alts will underperform BTC for a while
The Universal TPI is available below;)
Don't touch altcoins until you see this!Over the past few months, we have seen an increase in the dominance of altcoins in the cryptocurrency market. This dominance has risen from 9% to 12%, indicating a growing interest in altcoins among investors.
During this period, the Trend Probability Indicator (TPI) was bullish, suggesting that this trend was likely to continue. However, since March 7th, the TPI has been bearish on the dominance of altcoins. Three days ago, it briefly went neutral, but it is currently at a TPI value of -0.257, which is considered bearish for the dominance of alts for now:
For the long-term TPI we see the trend being much more weak for the dominance of alt-coins. The long-term TPI has a value of -0.7142.
It's quite likely that BTC and ETH will continue to outperform alts until we see more conviction and certainty in the market. This means you are currently taking on more risk for less returns by holding ALTS, wait for a proper signal from the performance of alts!
You can even compare a strong altcoin like SOL to ETH and see that SOL is heavily underperforming ETH:
When the TPI is red on for example the SOL/ETH chart we see that SOL is underperforming ETH in terms of risk adjusted returns and losses.
Down to 5.5 and Lower or Back to ATH at 19.4Scenario A:
- Confirmed Head/Shoulders top, successful re-test and then down to 5.5%
- Likely headed much lower after losing the lower trendline of a long-term rising wedge, which has also been successfully re-tested and has continued down
- Possible because of two confirmed patterns and re-tests.
Scenario B:
- Unconfirmed Falling Wedge, which if it breaks up from will target ATH at 19.4% and bring us back into the rising wedge on pending a 2nd re-test.
- Double-top and then true exit of the rising wedge before heading much lower
- Possible because this behavior would be similar to the behavior following its previous set of peaks in 2017-18.
Exploring Bitcoin and Altcoin DominanceIntroduction
The dynamic landscape of cryptocurrency trading is filled with a multitude of variables that traders need to comprehend to navigate the financial waters successfully. One such vital aspect of understanding is the relationship between Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) and Other Cryptocurrencies Dominance (OTHERS.D). This article aims to provide an in-depth insight into this relationship and its long-term trends.
Bitcoin Dominance: What is it?
Firstly, to understand the relationship between these two, we must grasp what Bitcoin dominance implies. Essentially, Bitcoin dominance illustrates the ratio of Bitcoin's total market capitalization relative to the aggregate market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market. Expressed as a percentage on a scale from 0 to 100, it signifies the proportion of Bitcoin's capitalization compared to the total market capitalization.
Other Cryptocurrencies Dominance (OTHERS.D)
Similarly, Other Cryptocurrencies Dominance (OTHERS.D) represents the total market capitalization of the top 125 altcoins, excluding Bitcoin and some other leading cryptocurrencies. It reflects how the altcoins are faring against the total market cap in the crypto market.
Correlation Between BTC.D and OTHERS.D
Now, the crucial question is, why should we care about these percentages? The significance of this relationship is revealed through the Correlation Coefficient indicator, which quantifies the degree to which these two indices move in relation to each other.
A Correlation Coefficient value of +1 indicates a strong positive correlation, signifying that both instruments tend to rise or fall simultaneously. Conversely, a correlation coefficient of -1 represents an inverse relationship, meaning when one instrument rises, the other falls. A coefficient of 0 suggests no apparent correlation, implying that the two instruments move independently of each other.
Historical data reveals that the correlation between BTC.D and OTHERS.D is often around -0.9. This suggests an inverse relationship where an increase in Bitcoin dominance typically corresponds to a decrease in altcoins dominance, and vice versa. This correlation is significant as it guides traders on whether to shift their focus towards Bitcoin or altcoins.
Long Term Trends
When we delve deeper into the long-term trend analysis of BTC.D and OTHERS.D, a broader picture begins to emerge. This broader view becomes more apparent when we visualize these trends, with Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) represented in orange and Others.D in red, which allows for a clear discernment of an inverse correlation trend.
Over time, Bitcoin dominance, as depicted by the orange trend, has tended to display a downward trajectory. This indicates that Bitcoin's proportion of the total market cap has been steadily diminishing. In stark contrast, Others.D, represented in red, has shown a long-term upward trend. This indicates that the dominance and capitalization of altcoins are gradually rising relative to the total market cap.
Conclusion
Understanding the symbiosis between Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) and Other Cryptocurrencies Dominance (OTHERS.D) is instrumental for navigating the cryptocurrency trading landscape effectively. A clear trend, observable over the long term, shows a steady decrease in Bitcoin dominance juxtaposed with a corresponding increase in altcoin dominance.
This evolution might be attributed to several factors. One of these could be the proliferation of new cryptocurrencies entering the market. Another factor could be the progressive advancement of blockchain technology, which is steadily pushing the envelope of modernization.
It is essential, therefore, to regularly analyze and monitor the BTC.D and OTHERS.D charts. Spotting a distinct trend in either direction could offer valuable insights for your investment strategy. Attempting to follow these trends can potentially provide advantageous trading opportunities.
The beauty of Bitcoin's design lies in its transparency. Nowhere else is the flow of capital as visible as in Bitcoin. This visibility lends a unique perspective, providing traders a strategic edge. By embracing this, you can bolster your understanding of these market dynamics, facilitating more informed and effective trading decisions in the fluctuating world of cryptocurrency.
Thank you for reading this article. I hope it has provided you with a useful insight into the relationship between Bitcoin Dominance and Other Cryptocurrencies Dominance, thereby enhancing your understanding of cryptocurrency trading. Your pursuit of knowledge in this ever-evolving field is commendable. Stay informed, stay ahead!
Best Regards,
Karim Subhieh
Others.d - May regain traction in the mid term.Looks like we're nearing the projected target for wave 2 of a bullish wave dating back to feb 2017. Should this come into fruition, we can see a potential alt coin reversal on the cards and therefore should allocate capital into alt coins for mid-longterm gains. In the short term, on bitcoin we see a potential wave B rally and then a wave C correction as wave A has recently completed, bottoming at 25.9k It is possible that when wave C for bitcoin completes, that altcoins start to gain dominance and increase in pricing as a lot of people have been shaken out their holdings and only true believers remain, which is usually the best time to buy.