TRADERSAI - A.I. Powered Model Trades for MON 07/29China, Fed, Earnings - the Old (real) Issues are Back in Focus this Week!
With the reality of the trade war with China unfolding clearly even in the words of the administration, investors are bracing to embrace uncertainty ("we are 90% close to a trade deal" no longer works). The challenge for Fed to be extremely lenient in the face of strong economic releases is getting harder with every release (so far). Earnings likely to be the wild card to drive the market mood for some time.
While these are the uncertainties impacting continued strength on the part of the bulls, they are NOT a case for bearishness, yet. As of now, our models do not see any sustained weakness. Read below for our models' trading plans for the day.
The chart shows the trading levels indicated by our models for today's session. For detailed trading plans, please check on our site.
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#ES #ESMINI #SP500 #SPX #SPY #Fed #Mueller #Rates #Earnings #China
Outlook
TRADERSAI - A.I. Powered Model Trades for Today, TUE 07/16In this Market, Earnings (Still) Matter (?)
Markets to continue to be driven by - or, appear to be - earnings related headlines. This is even more so in the absence of any major economic (barring the Retail Sales Advance release this morning, and Powell's speech in Paris later in the day) releases that upset the complacency on the street.
As we wrote on Friday's outlook, let not your sense of "can this keep going up?" color your trading strategies - instead, focus on what "is" the dominant direction of the markets and and be on that side until something else evidently manifests itself.
The chart shows the trading levels indicated by our models for today's session. For detailed trading plans, please check on our site.
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#ES #ESMINI #SP500 #SPX #SPY #Fed #Powell #Rates #Earnings
Gold Week #29 OutlookLet's see..
...Gold consolidating within a well defined ascending triangle - CHECK!
...above 100MA (4H) with a bullish upward trajectory - CHECK!
...RSI (4H) above "50" with a bullish upward trajectory - CHECK!
...DXY having a hard time probably enduring a rather prolonged/deeper/correction - 2 b confirmed!
...general bullish fundamental background ("geo- & monetary politics"/uncertainties) - DOUBLE-CHECK!!
We may be in for another GOLDEN RALLYE WEEK - so let's hop on it!
:D
Weekly Forecast Price Outlook (Frontrunning Bitcoin) So my last idea was the monthly (published about 2 hrs ago)...
here is a breakdown to the next time frame down (the weekly) it's a rough forecast with no TDseq numbers drawn, only the red line as you can see to represent about where I think the price action will travel, but it gives the basic idea of what I'm expecting in the future - THIS IS WAY down the road, so I will update accordingly as time goes on.
I drew some forecasts of where the MA's will be in colored dotted lines, once again, rough straight lines, but close enough
If you're interested in learning, give a like and subscribe at my youtube channel : look up "Kick Back Time" on youtube
There, if I start to get subscribers, I will be encouraged to teach through screen sharing videos. You will learn A LOT more that way.
Once again, this is frontrunning, it's not an actual sure thing, only what I think is likely to happen. ALWAYS trade what the technical analysis tell YOU, NOT mine or even your own opinion
BEWARE OF SHORTING ! at this time guys, you can get run over real easily with all these bullish indicators going right now, just look at the Moving averages on this snapshot alone. The long term trend is set
Kick Back Time
Future possiblity (frontrunning) Monthly Chart outlook (Bitcoin)It's good to have some idea of what could happen, this way you can plan.
The chart is pretty self explanatory. I'm looking for a rollover that will lead into stronger selling, driving the price down only to be picked back up for a green bullish 7 of 9 hammer candle.
It may not wick up in the same month, it may close and open the next candle at the bottom and then go up, either way, I'll be looking for a bottom down there somewhere.
I'm looking for the RSI to come down a little and bounce off the moving average (will be confluent with what's going on in the price action).
I'm looking for early Sept to be a possible entry.
If you would like me to explain further in a video. Just subscribe to my youtube channel "Kick Back Time" (just go to youtube and do a search for those exact words, should come up)
Right now I have no subscribers, however...
...if I start to get subscribers, this will tell me people are interested in learning more and I will start making screen sharing videos on a regular basis that go into further detail and down into the smaller time frames.
Liking this idea is also encouraging...
Kick Back Time
Events to Look Out For Next WeekBy Andria Pichidi - June 1, 2019
Trade and geopolitics will continue to dominate the headlines into June along with PM May’s official resignation on Friday. Top of the agenda next week will be the RBA and ECB policy meetings, but a lot of attention will also be on the contemporaneous data on the May US Jobs report, the global PMI outcomes and the European Q1 GDP.
Monday – 03 June 2019
[* ]Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to slip into the neutral zone in May, after the weak Manufacturing PMI signalled contraction yesterday.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to rise to 53.5 in May from 52.8 in April, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August. Overall, we’ve seen a stabilization in sentiment since the late-2018 pullback.
Tuesday – 04 June 2019
Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Retail sales are expected to come out lower, standing at 0.2% m/m in April, after drifting to 0.3% increase in March from the 0.9% high in February.
Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 04:30) –A 25 bp reduction to 1.25% is anticipated from the current 1.50% rate setting as the RBA adds accommodation amid a slowing economy and low inflation. The minutes from the early May policy review were dovish-leaning, adding to the expectation that rates will be reduced in June.
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for May is expected to drop back to 1.4% y/y from 1.7%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 1.3% y/y.
Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT N/A)
Wednesday – 05 June 2019
Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The Gross Domestic Product figure is probably the most important economic data announcement for a country, closely followed by the unemployment rate. The final Q1 Australian GDP is expected to grow to 0.3% from 0.2%.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to edge up to 55.7 in April from a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September.
Thursday – 06 June 2019
Event of the week – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR, GMT 11:45) – The ECB is widely expected to keep policy rates on hold at the June council meeting, but the presser is likely to be very dovish, with the guidance on rates likely to be pushed well into 2020. The details on the new TLTRO programme are also due to be released and are likely to be generous, but rate tiering doesn’t seem to be on the agenda for now, as the assessment of the possible side effects on negative interest rates continues.
Friday – 07 June 2019
Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – Along with Thursday’s employment data, payrolls are important in gauging how many people are employed in non-agricultural businesses. Jobs are expected to have increased in May, at 190k following a 263k increase in April. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, while average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%.
Employment and Unemployment (CAD, GMT 12:30) – After the 106.5k surge in April employment, which notched a new all-time record 1-month gain, the Canadian unemployment rate is expected to have increased further in May.
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
XAUUSD: Short Term OutlookWith rising geopolitical tensions between "Trade Wars" and tension between Iran and US, this should be enough to support Gold Prices...
Seeming to be indecisive after reaching $1,3000 mark dropping to current $1286.825 - this could be in part of upbeat comments with US and China - and with Greenback holding a strong position it seems like Gold isn't ready for a rally.
I'm looking for a retrace to 1291.500 TP before watching for market confirmation or failure of break.
*Not Professional Advice - Would love to hear your view!
- Krecioch
USDCAD LOOKS BULLISH - WAIT FOR A BULL BREAK
pair is currently trading inside 1.34 - 1.35 trading range.
rising trend line gives strong additional support.
most likely we will see bullish continuation and new higher high.
be patient and wait for a bullish breakout of a resistance of a trading range.
this breakout will trigger buying reaction of market participants.
Ready for long ride on nifty We are Buying Nifty on Dip around 10780--10800 .!!
and takee short around 10960--980 Stop must above 11025
once close above 11025 then just take fresh long for big big big target
target around 11200---11555---11777
and above 11777 we will take 12000--12300--12500 Level
This all Target will achive in next 3 month only...
and always stay long on nifty....every dip
right now hard code support is 10650 level..!! and for big player
nothing to worry about 100-200 point stop...we are here to take 2000 point on nifty...
keep watching ...keep following keep sharing
follow me make money
Nayan patel
BITCOIN: The BEST CHART AND ADVICE you have ever seen! ;-DHey cryptomaniacs and traders,
welcome to another analysis...no sorry.
I just wanted to wish you all a HAPPY EASTERN and want to remind you that coins and money is not the important thing in LIFE!
Do I got some adviced for you? Yeah!
I know we all might be chart-addicted and love to trade - We always check our portfolios and news. But all this can be stressfull, right?
Take the time to recover - Refresh your mindset and don`t forget to celebrate Eastern with your family - You never know how long they stay!
Health, freedome, time, family - All this is way more important than your financial freedome. So grant yourself a little break and focus on the real important things before we head into the next week.
You will feel refreshed and happy! And a good state of mind will cause better decisions - and better trades.
SO HAPPY EASTERN EVERYONE:-)
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Peace
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me! :-)
DAX: Weekly OUTLOOK! Rally SHOULD go on...?Hey tradomaniacs,
welcome to another weekly outlook for DAX!
Everything I wanna say is shown in the chart!
Have a nice start into the week!
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
BTCOIN and WHAT we NEED for a BULL-RUN!#OverviewHey cryptoheads,
welcome to antother analysis of Bitcoin.
In this chart we keep it very simple and look at the price-action, time-cycles and commin indicators.
All I want is to make sure that you guys don`t freak the hell out and buy the peaks.
Stay calm and rational in order to make good decisions.
In order to see a wealthy uptrend we need to see the folowing things:
1. S&R-Flips of Trendline and FAN.
2. A cross above the respected 50 M/A.
3. A strong bullish Time-Cycle
4. Higher Highs and Higher Lows
Everything else I wanna say is indicated in the chart.
Good Luck everyone. Let`s hope the King is Cryptomaniac has recovered. :-)
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
DXY: Weekly OUTLOOK and LONG-TERM-FORECAST!#FundamentalsHey tradomaniacs,
welcome to another OUTLOOK for DXY!
Fundamentals:
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1. FED began to increase the interest rate too early. Economy not as stable as expected!
The current interest rate is at the "neutral point" and does not support or damage the economy.
2. Cool down is noticeable but still "ignored " by the market! Important data such as PMI, CPI and so on are
showing worse and worse results. First real reaction was last friday after GERMANYS PMI with the worst result since 2012!
3. Market sees the tradewar as "guiltier". Still hoping a deal between USA and CHINA would safe the markets and push
the economy!
4. Yield-Curves about to invert! If low-term-credits are more expensive than long-term-credits banks won`t have
any reasons for lending! They would make no profit with this business anymore. This would cause less liquidity!
5. Bonds going up! Safe haven?
There are way more fundamentals but I think these points will be enough to show you the circumstances..
The previous FED`s statement was a FULL PACKAGE of doves.
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The FED`s statement was a big package of DOVISH messages saying that they won`t increase the interest rate
this year anymore amid signs of an economic slowdown, and said it would halt the steady decline of its balance sheet in September.
Call it the neutral rate.. or just a try to admit not too many failures. I bet POWELL would like to decrease the interest rate but can`t!
"What the Fed is doing is trying to engineer a soft landing.
What the market is hearing though is things have gotten so weak so quickly ... and the earnings outlook is so
dire that real money managers don't want to chase this rally."
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Technical Aspects:
1. Time-Cycles:
Looking at the different Sin-Waves you`ll notice that the previous cycle has been bullish but not able to
create a noticable impulse or a new high! This is a strong evidence for weakness attributable to the recent
change of the FED`s mind from hawkish to dovish!
2.Price-Action:
The market still rotates inside of the marked up trading-range between the significant support and resistance!
We are currently at the high important resistance-level (97,29) and are probably creating a double-top-patterm!
The BREAK through the current trendline and the subsequent PULLBACk is a typical behaivor and another evidence
for a sell-off! If we trigger the neck-line of the Double-TOP we could see another attempt to create a lower low!
3. Fibonacci Ratios:
The previous umpulse up to 104,- has ended @ the 161% extension, which is excactly at the 61,& retracement-level in the higher timeframe of the downtrend!
The taken profit has caused a sell-off down to the 50% retracement-level which is exactly at the Trendline of the current primary trend!
The current diagonal Support is q the 2/1 GANN-FANN!
Moving Average:
ALL MA/s including 200,100,50 has crossed and are currently retesting the 200 ma!
This is the "death-cross" and should be another evidence for a downtrend!
The 200 M/A is our current support!
Conclusion: If we trigger the DT-Pattern I expect the market to retest 90$!
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! .-)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
NASDAQ INC: WEEKLY OUTLOOK!Hey tradomaniacs,
welcome to the weekly outlook!
I think the charts says enough!
Will the Double-Top get triggered?
The current situation says "NO" to Double-TOP but it looks like the current cycle is going to be bearish down to the previous "Supply-Zone."
The market just bounced off the 50 and 100 MA and seems to continue the rally downwards to complete WAVE 2.
After that we should see another attempt upwards cklose the the marked up target-zone of TEAM BEAR!
Great chance should come very soon!
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
SPX500: Weekly OVERVIEW! Awesome chance to sell?#CyclesHey tradomaniacs,
welcome to another weekly outlook of SPX500!
This is an addition to my previous outlook:
The chart is speaking for itself...
Enjoy and have a nice start into the week!
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
ETHEREUM: It`s probabvly TIME TO BUY!#ChanceoftheyearHey tradomaniacs and cryptoheads,
welcome to an analysis of ethereum!
My friends, I think it`s time to buy!
BUY WHY?
In this analysis we wanna take a look at time-cyclers which are clearly underestimates and not as common as the classic TA which is basically used to compare price-action or price-patterns.
From another perspective looking at the big picture, we see that ethereum had an awesome run with the recent impulse-phase down from 5,60 up to it`s peek of 1.436,-!
IS THAT CRAZY? Yeah.. the hype-train of 2017 was very fast and completly sold out and we`ve never seen so many passengers. But ever since the train was so fast a lot of
passengers got shaky hands and sweaty palms. The train was very fast, as fast as no train before and the crowd inside the train felt insecure and fear crept in.
The entire trip was an amazing journey of 399 DAYS and it was obviously time to rest and enjoy the result of this new world record.
The impulse was over and we were heading into a correction which took excactly 399 DAYS until now!
The market indicates more and more evidence for a new rally.
New carbon has been delivered and the burning stoves are clened up and ready for an new ride..
Technical Aspects:
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Timelines:
All Time-Lines are pretty harmonic indicated by the low of the sub-divided SIN-Wave @ the High
of the primary Sin-Wave.
The Alpha-Waves are confirming that cycle and accurate time-lines are indicating a perfct cycle.
The impulse- and corrective phase are showing the same running time of 399 DAYS.
Price-Action:
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Wave 1 has been completed with the previous impulse @ Wave 5 and we`ve made 25513,25%. Since then the corrective-wave retraced down to 83,29$ which is still a very important support.
This retracement indicates a motive wave, which is not a classic impulse but eventually a leading diagonal because WAVE C of the correction went below the territory of WAVE 4 but DID NOT touch the high of Wave 1 again.
This means we see a confirmed MOTIVE-WAVE indicating an uptrend should tend to continue.
The corrective Wave headed down to the 1.272 Extension, which is a very common level.
The second picture indicates optimism of the market:
The active trendchannel was very dominant and predimonated over the market-players behaivor.
But since the strong sell-off down to the corrections low @ 83,29 $ we`ve seen two attempts to break out of this channel.
The first one failed @ the 100 M/A (purple) which was obviously the target of the bulls which this impulse.
The market smelled a chance and didn`t hesitate to push the price out of this channel again.
the correction was very strong because the price danced around the resistance of the channel.
THE NEXT PUMP got confirmed by a consolidation.. and not as ususal.. a hard dump!
The 50 M/A and 1 00 M/A are about cross and care getting in touch for the first time since July 2018!
THIS IS a very crucial moment for ETH and it`s future because the next move could be the the path we choose to go!
Mac-D:
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During the correction the MAC-D used to bounce of the ZERO aka TRIGGERLINE and refuse to get above it.
Since the first attempt to break out of the channel, we`ve seen that the market is not wolling to drop significantly below it again and flucuates around it.
The BULLISH divergence indicates higher LOWS while the price-action indicates lower lows and looks likea triangle with the first attempt to break out.
The classic retest should be the confirmation of this upcoming impulse!
If we violate the MA-Comb, bounce of the triggerline of the MAC-D and and create a new higher highit will be time TO BUY ETHEREUM!
Misspelling? Sorry guys.. I`m lazy! ;-D
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
DAX: Weekly outlook and detailed analysis!#CHANES and ENTRYS.HEy tradomaniacs,
welcome to a little weekly outlook!
Overall we`ve seen a very nice correction back above 11.100 which is a decent retracement after this holy moly huge sell-off we`ve seen after the S/H/S and Diamond-Pattern
got triggered though we have not even finished this superir trend-changing pattern yet.
So what can we expect? There is a lot of fundamental things going on, such as the tradewar, brexit and so on.
How ever, we want to focus on the technicals aspects and talk about important price-levels and possibilities.
Technical Aspects:
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Price-Action:
Since we`ve seen the Breakout of the S/H/S or Diamond-Pattern, Team bear seemed to be unstoppable and sold the diva
down to capitulation to a significant Support-Area between 10.261 and 10.859.
After the violatin of the important Resistance @ 11.000 and 11.100 and the confirmed S&R-Flip, we were not able to do anything and just
consolidated in between the red Resistance-Zone and the current major support.
It looks like the market is waiting for a clear impulse in to a direction, thus the next impulse should be crucial for the next upcoming moves.
Either we continue the downtrend with a lower high by a break through 11.100, indicated by the red diagonal resitance of the shorter timeframe,
or we violate the current resistance and probably retest at least 11.416, which is the next subservient resistance marked up in red.
The last "Endboss" to liquidate the bears of this downtrend would be @ 11.500 - 11.700.
A violation of this resistance could completly destroy dow current downtrend.
RSI:
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The RSI indicated a completly oversold market. This might be one reason for this retracement but also could
be interpreted as "Shit, I will never get the DIVA as cheap as now again." and a new impulse upwards in the longer
time frame.
For now we are back and are knocking at the door of Mr. Overbought to enter "Profit-Safe-Zone".
MAC-D:
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After the divergence the market reacted as expected.
We are above teh triggerline but could create a Sell-Signal very soon, since both MA/s tend to cross again.
This would probably force the Bulls of this impulse to safe their profit.
Moving Average:
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The yellow moving average represents a period of the important 100 days.
As you can see, we are currently close below and could bergin to test it, after we`ve seen a breakout!
The blue moving average represents a period of 50 days,
AS you cann see we already respected that MA as a new support and could bounce of it over and over again.
Fibonacci:
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The yellow Fibo-Bar represents the retracement of the very big timeframe and shows a stop of the sell-off close @the 61,8% retracement.
This is a very good sign and represents a valid UPTREND in the big picture, according to the elliot-wave-theory.
Please check my other charts to see more in the weekly chart!
The green Fib-Bar measures the current retracement of the sell-off. We made it above the 23,6% retracement,
which is exactly between the current Support-Zone @ 11.052.
A further retracement up to 38,2 is very likely if we break through the current "Sell-Pressure-Zone".
The sell-off ended btw. @ the 161% extension of the impulse downwards!
Steepness:
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The steepness is decreasing and represents weakness of the down-trend.
How ever, it looks like we currently stuck in a very tight range and should wait for the next impulse to come!
If we fall, then we`d see a classic trend-continuation.
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Conclusion and nice prices to trade:
Sell below 11.050 or below the 50 MA @ 10.971!
Buy @ 11.289 or above 11.300!
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AND as always: Don`t just randomly trade. Wait for your triggers, confirmations.. and.. yeah I guess you know what I mean.
I wish you a great start into the next trading-week!
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
EURUSD - Turning points on the Daily Looking at where price is there are a few levels that are jumping out.
The first area is the 1.17400 level, there was a strong move down from this level, looking left however there has been a lot more activity in this area which leads me to believe that although there could be a good opportunity here there is a better and untouched area at 1.19250 area.
If price pushes up toward the 1.9250 area there is a stronger possibility of a drop.