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US10Y Elliot Wave Analysis (fun might be over) **WHERE DO WE START** At this point it is nearly unarguable that the move up form the Covid lows looks impulsive, meaning we are in some sort of a new bull cycle. In the past, since US10Y's inception back in the late 1970s the path it followed had a downwards trajectory that made new lows after each bull cycle was done. The US10Y would then correct those lows over the next 2-4 years or so and retrace to .5 fib or .618 fib of the previous high. It did this every single time, however in 2022 it is acting very different. For the first time in history since inception the US10Y blasted through the .618 fibonacci retracement of the previous top which was in November of 2018. My view was bearish for most of this year since we were coming up against strong resistances, however since the price pierced through them all with little effort and continued up makes me lean bullish on the Macro outlook. **TRUNCATION** Truncation (definition) - What is truncation in trading. In most impulses, the fifth of the Elliott waves extends beyond the extremum of the third wave, but sometimes the fifth wave may not reach the end of the third wave . This phenomenon is called truncation or truncated wave. The next event I need to go into is the truncation of the 5th wave down that took place in August of 2020. Truncations are rare events in Elliot Wave Theory and require very careful analysis to ensure the count is not something different. It is more likely to see a truncation in very volatile environments, and Covid crash of 2020 was undoubtably one. This truncation does not show up on US05Y or US02Y leading me to believe the actual bottom on US10Y was in August of 2020 and NOT in March of 2020. However this doesn't change the current count, just some clarification for those using Elliot Waves. **WHERE ARE WE NOW** Since the bottom we see an impulse up of which waves (1) and (2) are complete and wave (3) is in progress currently finishing it's 5th subwave. I expect the price to come to 4% or even 4.5% before the likelihood of a pullback for wave (4) becomes highly likely. The wave (4) retracement should be relatively large pulling back to .236 or .382 on the fibonacci levels from the top of wave (3). The price could come down to 2.75% - 3.5% on US10Y depending on how high wave (3) ends up going, although wave (4) pullback is allowed to go as low as .5 fib which could bring the US10Y down even below 2.75%, but I must say I find that unlikely considering how bullish this move up is coming to be. **LIKELY PRICE PATH** What's beginning to look clear is that after we finish wave (4) in a 3 wave structure down or perhaps a triangle formation (common in wave 4 pullbacks), we are still going to need to complete the impulse sequence and start a wave (5) up. Yes, I expect US10Y to hit and possibly go past 5%. Once there we have a completed wave 1 on a Macro outlook since the crash of 2020. I will then expect government treasury bond yields to enter a short term "bear market" and correct the entire move shown in the chart as red ABC down. This could then be last great pullback... and an opportunity to buy a house at a very affordable rate. Why? Because once this ABC that will correct this entire bull move up is done, we should see continuation in rising interest rates in a new bull cycle up. A 5 wave Elliot impulse is not a complete sequence, it should be followed by a 3, 7, or 11 wave down correction. Typically retracing to .5 or .618 on fibonnaci retracement levels and continue up again in a minimum of 5 waves. **CONCLUSION** The era of cheap rates might be coming to an end, and 2020 covid crash might have marked a long term bottom on treasury yields. Cheers,
TVC:US10YLong
by Elliot618
ORACLE finally pushed back from the support lineTarget horizon: 1-2 months Target: $84 Stop order: $72 Technical analysis The share price has pushed away from the local support line. Idea for the growth of the paper with a target of $84. The profit/risk ratio is 3.00. Fundamental factor. Oracle is a U.S. corporation, the second-largest software producer by revenue, the largest producer of software for organizations, and a major provider of server hardware. The company will report financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2023 today, Sept. 12. Analysts expect revenue of $11.33 billion and earnings per share of $1.08. If the report beats analysts' exp ectations and the company's management gives a good outlook, the market could put that positive value on the company.
NYSE:ORCLLong
by SiriusBH
🎯 EURUSD, BITCOIN, OIL and more. Quick weekly outlook. 🎯👋 Disclaimer: All ideas here are for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Your trades are yours only, and your complete responsibility. I'm not particularly bullish or bearish on any given instrument, and I don't have a "fixed" bias. I'm just following the strategy I learned from my teachers and that's all. We can have completely different views on the market and still both make profits. Everything here should be treated as a simulation. 👉I believe a trader doesn't need to predict anything, so the "right or wrong" mentality is a fundamental flaw of any beginner. A trader should find a system he's willing to work with long-term, hindsight test, backtest and then execute live. He's right only when he executes the system, and he's wrong only when he's taking random setups. Thank you for being here, I hope I'll be able to help you become better at trading.
TVC:USOIL
by Yelli_trades
2
EMAMI REALTY - WEEKLY TIME FRAMEThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart). Note: its my view only and its for educational purpose only. only who has got knowledge in this strategy will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves. we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. we anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive moves). Just ride the bullish or bearish impulsive move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle. buy low and sell high concept. buy at cheaper price and sell at expensive price. Keep it simple, keep it Unique. please keep your comments useful & respectful. Thanks for your support....
BSE:EMAMIREALLong
by Tradelikemee
NZDCAD SETUPThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart). Note: its my view only and its for educational purpose only. only who has got knowledge in this strategy will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves. we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. we anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive moves). Just ride the bullish or bearish impulsive move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle. buy low and sell high concept. buy at cheaper price and sell at expensive price. Keep it simple, keep it Unique. please keep your comments useful & respectful. Thanks for your support....
Short
by Tradelikemee
1
BTC OUTLOOK - Have it YOUR wayI am simply sharing some observations, I am in no way advising anyone to make any decisions and in fact, I am advising anyone reading this to verify all information as I could easily be wrong. This is a breaking point with lots of tension and two possible setups, the outcome of every financial decision will come down on BTC, either sending it to new highs over the next year, or sending it back to 10k for a technical flush and beginning of a sloppy but still possible bullish gartley on the weekly. I called 10k as the beginning of this rally, I also called several moves thereafter and the most recent bounce at 30k and the subsequent drop to our current 20k level, not because I have a crystal ball but because I trade what I see. Do you see what I see??? taking the short or selling holdings to buy back in at a potentially lower price, as shown above, would be a 1:1 trade and only looking to take a portion of the "C" wave. taking the long shown above would be a 1:3 trade and aiming for the top of the most recent "ABC" as that is the true top of the most recent range that played out on the weekly. Trailing stops of some kind are a must!!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by rolledchange
4
BITCOIN BEAR MARKET TO CONTINUE, NO HIGHER THAN 38.5K IN 2022!The 200 DMA is a very important level for Bitcoin. BTC under 200 DMA = bearish Let's look at the past: Late March 2014 - Late June 2015 = BTC was below 200 DMA, Bear market, roughly 16 months of bear market. MAJOR BEAR MARKET March 2018 - April 2019 = BTC below 200 DMA, Bear market, roughly 14 months of bear market. MAJOR BEAR MARKET September 2019 - April 2020 = BTC below 200 DMA, Bear market, roughly 8 months of bear market. MINOR BEAR MARKET Late December 2020 - now = BTC below 200 DMA, Bear market, so far 6 months of bear market. MAJOR BEAR MARKET. Going by historical trends, BTC bear markets tend to last 14-16 months, with a smaller bear market one year before halving (2019, most likely 2023) Meaning the current bear market is likely to end roughly Jan 2023 - April 2023 Once the 200 DMA starts to come closer to the price action, they we should start seeing bullish movement. These DMA levels move slowly, if we try to draw one, it likely comes close to December 2023... however if BTC falls to 17k or lower, the DMA likely takes 1-2 more months to get to that level, so early 2023 is most likely when this happens. It takes roughly 90 days for DMA to fall by 10k, in 180 days (roughly 24th of December), the DMA is likely to fall to 18k levels as the current pace If we go by this chart, it makes it very unlikely that we will see prices higher than 28k after end of September 2022, and unlikely we see BTC close above 38.5k in 2022. There is chance we could go even lower than 10k in 2022, let's not rule this out! Economic situation is quite bad and we must keep an open mind. Of course odds of going below 10k are low, but they aren't impossible Each yellow box represents 90 days. I drew the white lines in the yellow box a little sloppy, so it's not meant to be fully accurate but to get a general idea
by Coindatahouse
Road to T3Devil is always in the details. The market reacted fairly positively as the .75 rate hike hit the market. Then we were told this is a one-time thing and the rate hikes will slow down. This is where investors may think deflation but it can't be further from the truth. We are already in a rescission. Inflation will still skyrocket over June and July. Layoffs are increasing. Powell and Yellen still believe in a soft landing. Jobs down will affect housing. The retail sales report is way down and consumers are being forced to allocate money to food, shelters, and transportation which will take big chunks out of GDP. In yesterday's meeting, Powell admitted we will only react and not be proactive to inflation. This means inflation will remain high and if data remains high they will hit the gas on hikes as they get the hot numbers coming in. This is 100% confirmation of more downturn. Receipt for an upcoming disaster... Another calm before the storm. Retail will get the impression that this is the bottom. Commodities will not move down until liquidity is pulled from the system. So risk on as I hide in commodities and inflation stocks. I will not invest in tech and crypto. Crypto needs more companies to ZERO out before they have their rebound
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by NotoriousJimbo