BTC - Pump and Dump or Pump and Continuation? - Oct 1 2021Last 2 Days BTC has been on a Tear!
After holding the 40 to 41 level (and the long stops) we pumped out dramatically on the 30th.
What appeared to be a potentially bearish enclosing monthly candle ended on September 30th
pumping hard causing general market indecision in what was already an overly bearish month.
This bullish close actually pumped above the summer highs (June and July)
Leading us into nice consolidation above the Weekly Open and an October opening that has been extremely bullish.
Previous Daily Support levels that we gained and retested on the way up were previously lost
and in 24 hours we regained both these levels - 44.4 and 46.8
General Thoughts:
Simply put we need a daily close at this level but preferably higher.
Realistically we have not gained the September 18th high which means we are still set at a perfect
level to swing fail here and turn back down.
However, we also never backtested the high around 52 when we went off that cliff.
This leaves a juicy down wick around 51 that would be a beautiful level to poke at and fail.
Worrying Factors:
The overall volume around this move was quite low yes the leg-up today was more so than expected but overall it was not as high
as would be expected.
Another issue is the DXY which has been absolutely sending right now. This is inversely and albeit loosely
correlated to the general market movement.
Where we are going:
We either swing fail right here and go back down
If 48.8 gets taken out then all those stops are gone and we should go further up to test the high.
And even potentially swing fail that level.
52.8 will be extremely well defended by bears because after that there is literally nothing until 57 to 58
So let us get some high time frame closes here and then gradual and BACKTESTED gains because low volume pumps/dumps,
are not good for a healthy market. I'm still overall very skeptical and more bearish than not
as the Dollar Currency Index (DXY) has been excessively bullish
Personally, I'm not long... yet...
Outlook
Weekly Watchlist: GBP/JPY - 27/09/2021GBP/JPY currently consolidating at the moment, price creating lower lows and lower highs suggesting we are bearish overall. I have a few ideas on how price may develop as the week goes on:
1) We could see a break and retest below 151.082 suggesting bearish pressure. If this does happen I will only be looking for sells.
2) We could see price come back to retest 151.811 meaning that 151.082 would become a higher low. Whether this level is key or interim depend on if price breaks above 151.811. From there we could see price start to break above setting a bullish directional bias for the market meaning we would only be looking for buys or we could double top and break 151.082 to confirm before selling off.
Weekly Watchlist: GBP/USD - 27/09/2021We did start to see some bullish structure form for GBP/USD however this may just be a deeper pullback from that major sell off. I can see price failed to hold the retest level of 1.36851 and now we are trading below. We have retested this level with a wick rejection and now the last candle of the week closed bearish engulfing the previous candle body. I personally believe we could see this continued sell off down to 1.36097
Weekly Watchlist: USD/CAD - 27/09/2021USD/CAD looking overall bearish to me price creating lower lows and lower highs. We have just come into a major level of support around 1.26462 which could cause price to bounce back up to 1.27248 but we will just have to see how the next few hours go from market open. Sells below 1.26462 and buys if support holds.
BTC Long-termTF: W
I think BTC price action could play out in a few different scenarios over the longer timeframe (1-2 years) outlook.
Scenario 1: BTC is currently approaching a broken level of support around $44,500, this also aligns with the 1.382 extension from the move from $~20k to~$3.1k correction. If this rejection occurs and acts like a ceiling and holds below these current levels, then I think price could visit the ~$17k to ~$21k before pushing it up to 2.0 extension. If price breaks out at that level, then I think price could move to the 2.382 or higher to test the trend line.
Scenario 2: BTC breaks out and breaks through the ATH and holds above (dashed line). I think price could move to the 2.382 extension levels.
XAUUSD STRATEGY FOR NEXT WEEKfor this week I'm actually still confused about the movement of gold, but after I saw it from a larger timeframe, I saw a divergence, but if we minimize it actually gold also has the potential to go down, so ? looks like this week will use a sideway market strategy for the gold market
BITCOIN WHAT'S NEXT? 50K OR 33K?The trendline on daily is too steep that means it is either going straight to the upside or it is going to consolidate at resistance before going down to 33k .I believe there is another crash at 33k before btc climbs and potentially revisits all time highs again . I plotted a fibonacci to see how things could go . Patiently waiting for the price action to tell us which way is btc going to take.
We are prepared for whatever comes next.
EUR/USD Daily Forecast August 16thHello,
This is the Daily forecast for the EU. The euro has been running wild lately and I don't think the market has stopped.
Overall I am bullish on the EU and I think we will get a small pullback before move to the upside.
I have set sells below 1.179 as I think it is a reasonable level to look for sells. We have a range and if we break out of this range I am looking for sells.
Break of 1.18 will indicate for me to look out for buys. I have set out the final target for it to be 1.182
For the retest level I am looking out for 1.176 as I don't think we have properly retested the previous resistance now acting as a support.
If the support doesn't hold I have set out premium buys level for 1.173, a potential market reversal level.
Let me know in the comments what do you think about the euro?
Best regards,
LoneFX (CocoTradesFX)
GBP/JPY Daily Forecast 16th AugustHello traders,
This is the Daily forecast for GJ. Lately we've had huge selling pressure on the market. I don't think we are done yet but very well would be. In my eagle eye I see us taping in to 149.5. But not today my friends.
For today I have set 151.4 to 151.2 as the Premium buys area where I think the buying pressure will likely hit the market.
Break of 151.516 would give me a indications of sells to 151.4. A small range to trade but I set it out anyway.
I set out 151.642 to 151.740 as a no trade zone. I don't suggest to take trades there as there can be manipulation happening.
Instead I set out break of 151.754 as my level to look for buys till 152.462.
Let me know in the comments what do you think of GJ?
Best regards,
LoneFX (CocoTradesFX)
XAU/USD Daily Forecast 16th AugustHello traders,
This is the Daily forecast for the gold. The gold had a very bullish week let's see if it will continue and will it tap into 1795. I see it as the main target right now.
Break of 1782 indicates buys. I see if the market breaks this level it'll continue to go up for that 1795. As we have clean candles to the left.
If the bullish momentum doesn't kick in, I marked up 1756.7 a potential retest level of this market. As on the higher time frame it was the last resistance now acting as a support.
I am looking for sells if we get a break of 1776.5 to all the way down to 1757.
For the premium buys I have set out 1746 as I think if we ever reach to that level it is very cheap to buy this market.
Let me know in the comments what do you think the gold will do?
Best regards,
LoneFX (CocoTradesFX)
LSIP - BEARISH CONTINUATION PATTERNLSIP is moving below the dynamic resistance area and forming the bearish continuation pattern. LISP has the possibility to continue moving downward after breaking the rising wedge pattern and reach the target area 1005.
*The roadmap will be invalid after LSIP hits the target area/resistance area.
BOE Thursday, NFP Friday...The Dollar has derived little or nothing from the hawkish leanings of Fed’s Waller who argues that with inflation running well above the 2% target an announcement on taper could come in September for an October start, and the FOMC should do it early and fast in order to be in position to increase rates in 2022, if needed.
In fact, the Buck is still on the back foot against almost all major counterparts and EM currencies, as the index continues to pivot 92.000 and skirt round numbers vs several G10 peers, like the Pound either side of 1.3900 in the run up to ‘super’ BoE Thursday and NFP the day after. Watch out for fridays impact and make sure to manage trades around the announcements.
The Bull Case for Bitcion - BITCOIN DOMINANCE Cup and HandleHere is what I am looking at for the potential bull case for Bitcoin in this volatile market. There is a Cup and Handle Pattern developing on ticker BTC.D aka Bitcoin Dominance. This tracks how strong Bitcoin is against all alt coins. If this breaks to the upside past the neckline, we could see a 13% pump to the upside against altcoins. This in turn could also pump Bitcoin ticker BTC to be clear, up 13% also. The price target for this potential long trade would be $49,000 - $50,000.
If you are Trading any breakouts, always watch the volume. In a perfect world you will want to see a volume spike to confirm the breakout. Next issue is Throwbacks and the fact that a Tweet can influence the market.
The narrative going around right now is that Bitcoin will start recovering after all the coordinated FUD is over with. A good indication that the narrative is changing is you will start to see some hype about Bitcoin and it should start winning some of those arguments. Especially, the electricity narrative and how much Bitcoin is actually mined using clean energy and how that will improve over time.
If you like these updates give me a follow and a like and I'll keep calling it like I see it.
And if you are wondering what the big read diamond is and yellow x's, I use Market Cipher. If you haven't seen anything about the creator of the indicator, go check out @CryptoFace on YouTube he is a legit trader using only this system to crush it. Good community too.
- Flava
XRP Long Analysis This is what i'm looking at for XRP - Our medium term upside targets of $2.4 & $2.8 are still valid, we have had a break out of the higher time frame trend line and begun making our next move up.
As you can see on the 4H timeframe we are in a upwards channel pattern which means there's a possibility of a pullback down to 1.15 region once the channel as played out - but first i'm expecting an upside move soon to the $1.8-$1.96 area. If price breaks through this resistance level, that's when we can see 2.4 and 2.8.
LEJ2021. Live Cattle Daily. In the golden pocket.Any dedicated live cattle traders, I would love to hear your take! If you are there is no need to read what I have below. You would probably find it very stupid.
------
I do not understand the fundamentals surrounding this market as far as when the high prices are. Doing a quick google search I see from the first image brought up that typically live cattle is falling right about now and getting ready to rebound. We have been rising steadily for a while, so I think it's safe to say the market is not behaving to expectation. That makes me a little uncertain, but I am falling back on TA entirely for any decisions here.
I hate to buy anything before I see the momentum in my favor, but if I ever were to buy a zone, this wouldn't be a bad one. I have picked this apart thoroughly, and as non-biased as possible, and I think I did a really good job so I hope you enjoy.
-------
One thing I notice is that whenever I say "this wouldn't be the worst" or "this wouldn't be a bad one" historically it has been a bad one. If this goes against me I will have to make some conscious decisions to change just a little in that department.
---------