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Weekly Market recap 6: volatility may take off very soonI believe the first breakout impulse of a new trend in the major assets can start during the next week. DXY broke out the long-term trendline and held above, closing at the border of the current sideways channel at 94.00 (even a little above it). If on Monday DXY closes confidently above 94.00, I'll be surely bullish on USD and JPY as that may signal the beginning of the new wave of risk aversion sentiment. If instead DXY forms a rejection candle signal, the reversal back into the range is likely. The major asset classes came to significant price levels 1)Brent broke the important support at 39.00, confirming the short-term uptrend (started at the end of April) reversal according to the trend structure. 2)Although S&P500 hasn't broken September low yet, it's consolidating under MA(100), that adds to my bearish bias on stocks. 3)Gold is also testing its major support level. Possible scenarios Whatever asset you look at, the full-body candle in either direction will tell us a lot at this point. We either enter into a volatile trending market (in case of DXY being above 94.00) or a possible short-term trend of medium volatility in the opposite direction. The market may be pricing in the upcoming United States Presidential election on November 3. The election result can be a catalyst for a new trend across the board.
TVC:DXY
by Cherry94
AUDUSD Wick rejections could be a sign for a buy?Can price finally find support around 0.7160? Though this pair is in a global uptrend, it is important to note that its current behavior and direction has been to the downside since the start of this trading week as is evident in the making of lower highs and lower lows. Needless to say, traders with a bullish bias has been waiting for price to find support at various areas along this week's downtrend path to get in on a buy but clearly, sellers are not done flexing their muscles yet as they have managed to push price lower and lower. Multiple wick rejections around the 0.7160 area could signify that much needed support for buyers to take control of the direction of this pair and bring back a continuation to the up side. Considering that price has respected key area between 0.7207 and 0.7193 as resistance several times in recent history, a global trend reversal could be cooking but this is not an exact confirmation yet.
Long
by Chinedumnweke
EURUSD H2 #OUTLOOk For 21 To 25 SeptemberDear Traders Today We Have an Analysis Of EURUSD H2. This Analysis Based On Price Action Theory. According to The Analysis, We Can See That Market On Down Trend which we can see with the help of Trendline there are so many rejections happen & market keep moving to downwards. As well as we have an extremely good support level @1.17556 There is 3 resistance level 1st is @1.18633, 2nd is @1.19007 & 3rd is @1.19463. On the 1st Resistance prices already refuted on the last Friday. I Request to All Before The Trade You Also Match You're Analysis With As If You're Set up Match Then You Can Trade. Thanks Regard Enclavefx technical group
by Enclave_fx
2
Weekly Market recap 1Ok, boring first, as I suspected it would be quite a calm week for USD as it ought to digest its previous downtrend move. The USD has been staying in the range without any hints of what direction the breakout would occur in. So let's wait and see what happens the upcoming week. If there are some decisive moves towards the range boundaries, we can devise a plan accordingly. I would be more prone to consider shorting USD in general, towards the previous trend. Gold has finally made a decent correction after the surge to the new all-time highs. Notice, that the level 1900, which is the high of September 2011, now became the mirror support. That's a good sign of the healthy bullish trend. This week it'd be nice to look for some bullish reversal setups based on the rebound from 1900 level and trend continuation setups afterwards. I'm not much into fundamentals, although I find a solid reason to stay long on Gold in the mid-long term as the interest rates will most likely remain very low for a while, and printing money continues in the US and Europe. Now, let's look at something more dynamic. My main focus in the upcoming week would be on the strength of the European currencies (EUR, CHF and GBP). Their indexes are all in a strong uptrend with some minor divergencies. The kicker here is to timely decipher which currency of the three has the most obvious relative strength. First of all, I chose not to display GBPCHF, as to me that's a symmetrical triangle formed in a multi-year range, - fairly neutral condition to have a bias in any direction. EURCHF has drawn my attention since the middle of May 2020, as it started to show aggressive signs of the long-term downtrend reversal. Although the pair seems to tighten to 1.0740, gradually, I see this pair going up in the mid-term . Therefore I'm long EUR here overall. EURGBP is consolidating near the upper band of the local range around 0.9050. That recent price action tells me EUR might be stronger at least in the short-term . And here is the highlight - AUDNZD . The pair has broken the long-term trendline started in October 2017, and confidently advances further. Australia, as the second Gold producing country in the world, should correlate with the price of Gold somehow. We can see a positive correlation of the AUDNZD with Gold since the middle of July. Last week Gold has corrected the strong upside move, but AUDNZD remained strong. That tells about the relative strength of AUD . I'll be looking for the trend continuations setups in AUDNZD in particular as NZD seems weak against European currencies too. That's it for now. I'd be curious to know your opinions about other fundamentals that drive the discussed currencies:)
by Cherry94
US500. Long-term outlook. Bullish.There is a strong level at 3200 which was a resistance level in the past, and now it's a support level. At this point, the economy of the US looks much better then any other coountry in a world. That's the reason that makes S&P index looking bullish in a longterm. Therefore, it's a good level to open long positions with take at around 3330. Of cource, the the ascent will not be easy, but we'll see it in anyway!) Good Luck! Do not forget about Stop Losses!!!
ULong
by NikolaiKondratiev
AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookMarket Outlook 22.06.2020 The S&P 500 moved up 1.9% this week, recovering some losses from the last week. The Nasdaq Composite moved higher with a 3.7% gain. Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the week in positive territory. Health care +3.1% Information technology +2.8% Consumer staples +2.4%, Consumer discretionary +2.3% On the downside Utilities -2.4% Energy -1.0% Real estate -0.8% Investors are still in the "Buy the dip" mentality after the major recovery from the bottom mad in March this year, and confirmations made by the Fed announcing on Monday that it will start buying individual corporate bonds through its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility. AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast We predict the market is going to continue to be high volatility range trading in the coming days and weeks, the economy is not going well enough to sustain a major rally, BUT the fed and government is going to continue to pump liquidity into the markets and that alone that should support the current price levels. The market traders are not clear on the next market move as they were in previous weeks and this creates elevated levels of volatility. We see the next key level as 3000, and then 2800. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alon_AOB
Alpha Over Beta Market Outlook 15.06.2020Market headline: Stock indexes decline in the worst week since March The S&P500 started the week meeting a significant milestone: it was positive for the year! plus the Nasdaq Composite finally rose above 10,000 - but went downhill from there as it surrendered to profit-taking that turned to be the worst week since March. The S&P 500 fell 4.8%, the Nasdaq fell 2.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.6%. Most of the week's losses came on Thursday with the S&P 500 declining 5.9% and rebounded on Friday. as there was no specific news that contributed to the decline, some blamed the Fed while others pointed to data showing increasing rates of coronavirus in many U.S. states reopening the economy in any case non of was really new news. All S&P 500 sectors finished the week down, ranging from information technology down 2.0% to energy down 11.1%. AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast We predict the market is going to continue to be high volatility range trading in the coming days and weeks, the economy is not going well enough to sustain a major rally, BUT the fed and government is going to continue to pump liquidity into the markets and that alone that should support the current price levels. The market traders are not clear on the next market move as they were in previous weeks and this creates elevated levels of volatility. We see the next key level as 2950 , and then 2800. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
SPY-Broad Sector Support , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, Market Outlook 01.06.2020 S&P 500 above its 200-day moving average following a broad sector recovery The stock market extended its rally this week on continued optimism about an economic recovery and a fear of missing out on further gains. The S&P500 was up +3.0% for the week, base on a nice uptrend in All 11 S&P 500 sectors which had finished in the green and supported the S&P 500 to close above its 200 days moving average. U.S.-China relations are front news again as there was uncertainty regarding China approving legislation to tighten its control over Hong Kong. Trump said the U.S. will remove special treatment for Hong Kong, will review practices of companies from China on U.S. financial exchanges, and will terminate its relationship with the HWO (World Health Organization), as he is trying to maneuver domestic riots from home. AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast We have chartered a number of bands for the S&P500, these bands are used for risk control and decision making. 295-310 - This is the best scenario we have for the rest of 2020. This bullish range holds as long as the price is above 295 280-295 - is the current locked trading range, when prices went above 295, it triggered a bullish signal in our systems. 265-280 is the bearish zone. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alon_AOB